TSW Mock Draft 2.0 - Completed!

[Virgil]

5 minutes ago, Floydboy12 said:

Hope the real Patriots aren’t as clever with their draft as you. My only question is would Pitt settle for a second for Johnson? You guys know more about veteran players worth in draft picks than me, but he really seems to have come into his own. 

I think it would be a 1st or 2nd.  Whoever takes him also has to give him a new deal.  

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Floydboy12 said:

Hope the real Patriots aren’t as clever with their draft as you. My only question is would Pitt settle for a second for Johnson? You guys know more about veteran players worth in draft picks than me, but he really seems to have come into his own. 

 

Personally I think a 2nd is too rich for him. But each to their own.

[Logic]

7 minutes ago, Floydboy12 said:

Hope the real Patriots aren’t as clever with their draft as you. My only question is would Pitt settle for a second for Johnson? You guys know more about veteran players worth in draft picks than me, but he really seems to have come into his own. 

The player needs a new contract, which always factors into these things. I tend to think it might be more like a 2nd and a conditional 5th that could become a 4th in real life, but for the purposes of this draft, there was no sense in talking late round picks. Others can feel free to weigh in, but I don’t think Johnson would fetch a 1st — particularly with his being in need of a new contract.

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally I think a 2nd is too rich for him. But each to their own.

Agreed.  Dionte Johnson is a pretty good WR, but not a true WR1 and not someone that really requires special attention from a defense…I doubt anyone would trade a second for him, especially with his contract demands….

[NewEra]

11 minutes ago, Floydboy12 said:

Hope the real Patriots aren’t as clever with their draft as you. My only question is would Pitt settle for a second for Johnson? You guys know more about veteran players worth in draft picks than me, but he really seems to have come into his own. 

I think the real question would be….is Johnson worth the money he will be asking for.  He’s really good, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable paying him over 20M a year.  Probably a 2nd + another mid round + late round pick.  

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally I think a 2nd is too rich for him. But each to their own.

 

Just now, mannc said:

Agreed.  Dionte Johnson is a pretty good WR, but not a true WR1 and not someone that really requires special attention from a defense…I doubt anyone would trade a second for him, especially with his contract demands….

With as bad as the Patriots have been at drafting WRs in real life, it seems like adding a guy coming off of a 100 catch, 1100 yard, 8 TD season for just a 2nd round pick would be a win for them. 
 

 

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

Agreed.  Dionte Johnson is a pretty good WR, but not a true WR1 and not someone that really requires special attention from a defense…I doubt anyone would trade a second for him, especially with his contract demands….

I think the jets would give up a 2nd for him if they can’t get one of the better WRs

[LEBills]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Agreed.  Dionte Johnson is a pretty good WR, but not a true WR1 and not someone that really requires special attention from a defense…I doubt anyone would trade a second for him, especially with his contract demands….

I think worth depends on the team.

 

Patriots seem like a pretty good landing spot for him because his best ability is getting open quickly off the line which helped late stage Big Ben and will probably be a good asset for Mac Jones. As Logic pointed out too, the Pats are awful at drafting WRs (Nkeal Harry over AJ brown and Metcalf) so a proven productive commodity is a little more valuable.

[H2o]

With the 22nd pick in the 2022 NFL Draft....the Philadelphia Eagles select.... Chris Olave / WR / Ohio St. 

 

We have our do everything #1 WR in DeVonta Smith. Now we have our polished route runner to go opposite of him and do it all in Olave. We liked Garrett Wilson too, but I watched a lot of Ohio St. games this year and I think Olave fits into our offense and with Smith better here. Even if, for some unforeseen reason, Olave doesn't succeed on the outside, then we surely believe he can be an elite Slot because of his route running and understanding how to leverage DB's. We love the potential he brings to the offense in multiple alignments. 

 

@Bill from NYC and the Cardinals are on the clock. 

[Logic]

5 minutes ago, H2o said:

With the 22nd pick in the 2022 NFL Draft....the Philadelphia Eagles select.... Chris Olave / WR / Ohio St. 

 

We have our do everything #1 WR in DeVonta Smith. Now we have our polished route runner to go opposite of him and do it all in Olave. We liked Garrett Wilson too, but I watched a lot of Ohio St. games this year and I think Olave fits into our offense and with Smith better here. Even if, for some unforeseen reason, Olave doesn't succeed on the outside, then we surely believe he can be an elite Slot because of his route running and understanding how to leverage DB's. We love the potential he brings to the offense in multiple alignments. 

 

@Bill from NYC and the Cardinals are on the clock. 

 

Smith and Olave is about as dreamy and silky a route running duo as one could imagine. Good pick.

 

[mannc]

25 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I think it would be a 1st or 2nd.  Whoever takes him also has to give him a new deal.  

so you think someone would trade a first or second round pick for Johnson AND pay him $20 to $22 million per year?  I'll believe it when I see it. 

[Virgil]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

so you think someone would trade a first or second round pick for Johnson AND pay him $20 to $22 million per year?  I'll believe it when I see it. 

I could see a 2nd and 17/18 mil per.  
 

He’s young, put up decent numbers on a crap team.  He has tons of potential.   
 

If we had the cap, I’d trade a 2nd for him in a heartbeat

[BillsShredder83]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally I think a 2nd is too rich for him. But each to their own.

Agreed. There's just no room on a team im building, with a flashy WR who consistently drops the ball. For every 25 yac, there's one drive killing drop.

It's like the CJ Spiller of WRs. Box score showing he had 6ypc, but they were at clips of 2, 1, 15 etc the whole game. How many points does that add to the board versus take away.

[BillsFanForever19]

The flaw in this mock is with the Bills pick being a User Vote, the Bills have to stay put at 25 while all these other teams are moving up. I almost expect Beane to do the same as I don't think he's just going to sit there and hope the CB prospect he likes will fall to him at 25.

[Big Blitz]

9 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

The flaw in this mock is with the Bills pick being a User Vote, the Bills have to stay put at 25 while all these other teams are moving up. I almost expect Beane to do the same as I don't think he's just going to sit there and hope the CB prospect he likes will fall to him at 25.

 

 

I say the team that drafted the best here which is the Jets gets to be the Bills in the next mock.  

 

😉

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

The flaw in this mock is with the Bills pick being a User Vote, the Bills have to stay put at 25 while all these other teams are moving up. I almost expect Beane to do the same as I don't think he's just going to sit there and hope the CB prospect he likes will fall to him at 25.

And that’s ok.  It’s an exercise for fun.  
 

I find a flaw in your rational.  You’re operating under the assumption that the only position Beane values in rd 1 of this draft is corner.  I don’t think that’s the case. We were “in on Gilmore up before he signed a couple days ago.  If we signed Gilmore, would we still have been corner only if we had signed him?  So now that we didn’t sign gilmore, are there any other free agents that can fill in for Tre until he returns?  Joe Haden, Kyle Fuller, Janoris Jenkins, Xavier Rhodes, jason Verrett, Bryce Callahan, AJ Bouye, Kevin King can’t be that guy?  All could possibly supplant Dane as cb2 when Tre returns.   

[Logic]

15 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Agreed. There's just no room on a team im building, with a flashy WR who consistently drops the ball. For every 25 yac, there's one drive killing drop.

It's like the CJ Spiller of WRs. Box score showing he had 6ypc, but they were at clips of 2, 1, 15 etc the whole game. How many points does that add to the board versus take away.

He dropped a lot of passes in 2020, but not last year. He wasn’t even in the top 20 in dropped passes in 2021. 
 

Stefon Diggs was, though.

 

https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

[BillsShredder83]

22 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

The flaw in this mock is with the Bills pick being a User Vote, the Bills have to stay put at 25 while all these other teams are moving up. I almost expect Beane to do the same as I don't think he's just going to sit there and hope the CB prospect he likes will fall to him at 25.

I thought this for a long time, but I've arrived at my final draft conclusion. I think we go BPA + weighted values of premier position, of S, CB, MLB, WR, TE (with slight chance of OG/OT) in the 1st... and if we don't find our CB in the 1st Beane goes up in the 2nd or 3rd to make BPA match need. I just think we have too many potential openings next year to NOT handle it like this, and I don't think Beane is giving up a 1st next year on an unproven commodity.

Edited April 19, 2022 by BillsShredder83

[Virgil]

With being only 2 picks away, there’s 3 players I’d be okay with the Bills taking.  

[Big Blitz]

I mean if McDuffie, Wilson, and Hall are there at 25 I'm good.  

 

 

I like Hill, Moore, and Elam as options to.  

Edited April 19, 2022 by Big Blitz

[BillsShredder83]

8 minutes ago, Logic said:

He dropped a lot of passes in 2020, but not last year. He wasn’t even in the top 20 in dropped passes in 2021. 
 

Stefon Diggs was, though.

 

https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

shows you what i know 🤷‍♂️ lol

6 minutes ago, Virgil said:

With being only 2 picks away, there’s 3 players I’d be okay with the Bills taking.  

can we start voting... my F5 is hanging on by a thread lol

[Just Joshin']

The Cowboys are not in the trade market - the board is coming to us.

[Bill from NYC]

26 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

The flaw in this mock is with the Bills pick being a User Vote, the Bills have to stay put at 25 while all these other teams are moving up. I almost expect Beane to do the same as I don't think he's just going to sit there and hope the CB prospect he likes will fall to him at 25.

If Beane moves up to draft a corner he is a rank amateur and an idiot. 

 

No offense meant and as always, jmo.

[Floydboy12]

5 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

If Beane moves up to draft a corner he is a rank amateur and an idiot. 

 

No offense meant and as always, jmo.

I think he might move up if Stingley was in reach. 

[Bill from NYC]

The Cards, at pick #23, select Kenyon Green - G - Texas A&M. Green might be able to play OT in a pinch, and is a good fit on a team that needs inside OL help. Green played and fared well against the best players in college football. 

I AM however surprised that there were no offers to trade down.

 

@Just Joshin'is on the clock.

[NewEra]

Looks like we get Oj McDuffie again unless dude doesn’t take Wilson. But he will. 

[BillsFanForever19]

39 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

If Beane moves up to draft a corner he is a rank amateur and an idiot. 

 

No offense meant and as always, jmo.

 

If he wants one of the top four CB's, better chance that they won't be there at 25 than it is they are. I'm not saying a massive move for a Gardner or Stingley is likely (though I don't think it's a definite no), calling him an "idiot" to make a move up a few picks to guarantee he gets the guy he wants is ridiculous.

Edited April 19, 2022 by BillsFanForever19

[BillsFanForever19]

57 minutes ago, NewEra said:

And that’s ok.  It’s an exercise for fun.  
 

I find a flaw in your rational.  You’re operating under the assumption that the only position Beane values in rd 1 of this draft is corner.  I don’t think that’s the case. We were “in on Gilmore up before he signed a couple days ago.  If we signed Gilmore, would we still have been corner only if we had signed him?  So now that we didn’t sign gilmore, are there any other free agents that can fill in for Tre until he returns?  Joe Haden, Kyle Fuller, Janoris Jenkins, Xavier Rhodes, jason Verrett, Bryce Callahan, AJ Bouye, Kevin King can’t be that guy?  All could possibly supplant Dane as cb2 when Tre returns.   

 

I find a flaw in your rational if you think we were truly in on Gilmore. Our "interest" was almost definitely just checking in on if we could get a bargain for him being available this late in FA. If he was truly someone we were interested in at the price range he were asking, we'd have been in on him early and would have been one of his visits.

 

Any of these other guys you mentioned are band aids. They're either ancient, career journeyman, or guys who have underperformed in recent years. Fuller, for example, was benched last season for poor play.

 

If the plan were to simply go veteran, they wouldn't have let the market dry up this much. It would have been addressed before now. I think we'll grab a guy later in the Offseason for a bargain. But that's just to provide some extra help with Tre down and depth. With what we're paying Tre, I think we're looking for an upgrade in talent from Levi long term at a cost controlled price. Only way to do that is to Draft a guy.

Edited April 19, 2022 by BillsFanForever19

[Virgil]

29 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Looks like we get Oj McDuffie again unless dude doesn’t take Wilson. But he will. 

I’m not going to list him in the poll.  He was already in the first one.  
 

How many will ask me about it?  Over/Under 20? 😋

[BillsFanForever19]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

I’m not going to list him in the poll.  He was already in the first one.  
 

How many will ask me about it?  Over/Under 20? 😋

 

I don't understand the logic in this. We have to select a different guy in Round 1 each time? 

[Bill from NYC]

13 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

If he wants one of the top four CB's, better chance that they won't be there at 25 than it is they are. I'm not saying a massive move for a Gardner or Stingley is likely (though I don't think it's a definite no), calling him an "idiot" to make a move up a few picks to guarantee he gets the guy he wants is ridiculous.

OK. It really is fine if we disagree.

Btw, was "rank amateur" OK?  

Edited April 20, 2022 by Bill from NYC

[Virgil]

4 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I don't understand the logic in this. We have to select a different guy in Round 1 each time? 

Because we’ve already established he was the pick with another poll.  Why do it again?

[glazeduck]

10 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I’m not going to list him in the poll.  He was already in the first one.  
 

How many will ask me about it?  Over/Under 20? 😋

This is a good thing. McDuffie was a horrendous pick.

[Big Blitz]

3 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Because we’ve already established he was the pick with another poll.  Why do it again?

 

 

I'd add him there could be players available that weren't there in the first vote.   

[BillsFanForever19]

2 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Because we’ve already established he was the pick with another poll.  Why do it again?

 

Because in this mock, he'd be the best available CB. Would you remove all other CB's too? And if not, why select a lesser talent? I just think doing mocks for the sake of drafting someone different each time is odd.

[Virgil]

1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

I'd add him there could be players available that weren't there in the first vote.   

True, it’s just not how we’ve done it in the past.  One of the goals is to see how accurate the Bills pick is and have multiple chances at it. 

4 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Because in this mock, he'd be the best available CB. Would you remove all other CB's too? And if not, why select a lesser talent? I just think doing mocks for the sake of drafting someone different each time is odd.

 

Nope, I will list the top players at their position that rank within the top 40, minus McDuffie.  If people vote to reach for the next DB, that's up to the masses

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I find a flaw in your rational if you think we were truly in on Gilmore. Our "interest" was almost definitely just checking in on if we could get a bargain for him being available this late in FA. If he was truly someone we were interested in at the price range he were asking, we'd have been in on him early and would have been one of his visits.

 

Any of these other guys you mentioned are band aids. They're either ancient, career journeyman, or guys who have underperformed in recent years. Fuller, for example, was benched last season for poor play.

 

If the plan were to simply go veteran, they wouldn't have let the market dry up this much. It would have been addressed before now. I think we'll grab a guy later in the Offseason for a bargain. But that's just to provide some extra help with Tre down and depth. With what we're paying Tre, I think we're looking for an upgrade in talent from Levi long term at a cost controlled price. Only way to do that is to Draft a guy.

Yeah….our interest was certainly only limited to within our price range and obviously his price range was out of our range.  That goes without saying.  I never said we were going all in on him.  We would have signed him if he had agreed to our offer…..which would have eliminated a cb in round one imo….and your rationale.  
 

Regarding the underlined…..the best way to do that is via the draft, I agree.  But you’re insinuating that the only draft pick is our first pick.  
 

Tre is one of the highest paid corners.  Taron is one of the highest paid slots.  Poyer and Hyde are getting almost 10M.  Meanwhile, under Beane, we’ve drafted one corner in 3 drafts and have been happy starting UDFAs and 7th round picks.  Our 1st rd pick is our most valuable asset and paying all those DBs big bucks plus using our most valuable asset on another corner……I don’t see it.  It makes sense looking at our holes, but I don’t think we’ll be trading up for one, which would likely cost us another 1st rd pick next year. 
 

maybe you’re right.  I don’t like the scenario 

[BillsShredder83]

18 minutes ago, Virgil said:

True, it’s just not how we’ve done it in the past.  One of the goals is to see how accurate the Bills pick is and have multiple chances at it. 

 

Nope, I will list the top players at their position that rank within the top 40, minus McDuffie.  If people vote to reach for the next DB, that's up to the masses

Just like Democracy! Limiting our choices between, Chitt and Richard Sandwiches since 1776 😭 (jk virg i like taking McDuffie off the board. Allows us to see much different scenarios play out in rd2 as well)

[BillsFanForever19]

31 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It makes sense looking at our holes, but I don’t think we’ll be trading up for one, which would likely cost us another 1st rd pick next year. 

 

maybe you’re right.  I don’t like the scenario 

 

Sure, it will cost a 1st if you want Gardner or Stingley. But i'm more or less talking about moving up for Booth or McDuffie, if one is the guy Beane has targeted. About half of all mocks and more than half of the simulations I've done have them both gone a few picks before 25. It wouldn't cost a 1st to move up a handful of picks. I don't see Beane just sitting on his hands and hoping his guy falls to 25.

 

And if we wait until Round 2 - there is most likely a large dropoff by the time 57 rolls around. We'd be lucky if McCreary were on the board. Elam and Gordon will be long gone.

 

I personally feel that after watching the Playoffs, they decided they needed more talent than Levi on the other side. If we wait until Round 57 or 89, we could luck out. But with the hole we have and Tre being out, I don't see that as a wise move.

Edited April 20, 2022 by BillsFanForever19

[MrEpsYtown]

I agree with leaving McDuffie out. I think he would be the pick, but let’s say the Bills don’t like him…who knows? Its a great exercise. I’m with you @Virgil