Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, The Jokeman said: People worry because he was starting the last quarter of the season when we seemed to turn the running game around. I get it but he is replaceable. My take, FWIW, is 1) the running game turn around preceded Bates starting (though I do give him props that I felt Dawkins and the whole line played better with him at LG) The Jets, the Saints, and the Bucs were all good running games featuring Boettger and Williams at OG. 2) the run game didn't work better because we ran the same plays with different OLmen blocking (Bates instead of Boettger, Boettger instead of Feliciano; Williams instead of Ford). it worked better because we were running different blocking and different plays - more pin and pull, less zone 3) an uncomfortable amount of the rush game resurgence was more designed attempts for Josh Allen - 12 or 15 attempts per game. This isn't just because Josh is an incredible athlete, it's because it gives us an extra element of misdirection or an extra blocker. 4) Bates was playing LG, no clue if he'd play as well at RG I'd like to see us keep Bates but given that Beane apparently set out to remodel the entire damned DL, I can't quarrel with taking the minimalist tender approach. We have a chance to match whatever offers he gets. And make no mistake, Beane is a "cards close to the vest" guy. He would love to lull the Vikes or Bears or whoever into the idea the Bills have 0 cap so they don't have to work hard to draft an offer sheet we can't beat. Then he'll have some strategy in mind and Surprise! if he wants to match it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 20 hours ago, Dopey said: Take care of family first. Championship is not a given, the $ is. Now if he were a vet who already made a ton of $ that's a different story. Lol, because he wouldn't get millions here ?? If you're smart you know how to manage your money if not your going to blow it all anyway. Always go for the championship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 58 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: My take, FWIW, is 1) the running game turn around preceded Bates starting (though I do give him props that I felt Dawkins and the whole line played better with him at LG) The Jets, the Saints, and the Bucs were all good running games featuring Boettger and Williams at OG. 2) the run game didn't work better because we ran the same plays with different OLmen blocking (Bates instead of Boettger, Boettger instead of Feliciano; Williams instead of Ford). it worked better because we were running different blocking and different plays - more pin and pull, less zone 3) an uncomfortable amount of the rush game resurgence was more designed attempts for Josh Allen - 12 or 15 attempts per game. This isn't just because Josh is an incredible athlete, it's because it gives us an extra element of misdirection or an extra blocker. 4) Bates was playing LG, no clue if he'd play as well at RG I'd like to see us keep Bates but given that Beane apparently set out to remodel the entire damned DL, I can't quarrel with taking the minimalist tender approach. We have a chance to match whatever offers he gets. And make no mistake, Beane is a "cards close to the vest" guy. He would love to lull the Vikes or Bears or whoever into the idea the Bills have 0 cap so they don't have to work hard to draft an offer sheet we can't beat. Then he'll have some strategy in mind and Surprise! if he wants to match it. I just dont believe they will role with Ford with no other plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: My take, FWIW, is 1) the running game turn around preceded Bates starting (though I do give him props that I felt Dawkins and the whole line played better with him at LG) The Jets, the Saints, and the Bucs were all good running games featuring Boettger and Williams at OG. 2) the run game didn't work better because we ran the same plays with different OLmen blocking (Bates instead of Boettger, Boettger instead of Feliciano; Williams instead of Ford). it worked better because we were running different blocking and different plays - more pin and pull, less zone 3) an uncomfortable amount of the rush game resurgence was more designed attempts for Josh Allen - 12 or 15 attempts per game. This isn't just because Josh is an incredible athlete, it's because it gives us an extra element of misdirection or an extra blocker. 4) Bates was playing LG, no clue if he'd play as well at RG I'd like to see us keep Bates but given that Beane apparently set out to remodel the entire damned DL, I can't quarrel with taking the minimalist tender approach. We have a chance to match whatever offers he gets. And make no mistake, Beane is a "cards close to the vest" guy. He would love to lull the Vikes or Bears or whoever into the idea the Bills have 0 cap so they don't have to work hard to draft an offer sheet we can't beat. Then he'll have some strategy in mind and Surprise! if he wants to match it. I'm not drawing any necessary correlation between the run game, and Bates' presence as a starter, and I know the Bills were working on fixing the run game well before he started, but... I don't think the run game really started to gel until the second Pats* game, and I feel like it really took a subsequent big step in the Falcons game the following week. And that does actually coincide with Bates starting. I also never felt like the "big issue" in the run game was the quality of our RBs, especially Motor. I always thought it was scheme, and O-line. (And correct me if I'm wrong, but was it 2019 that the Bills switched to zone blocking, at which point pass protection improved, and the run game took a dive?) At least, this is the narrative that I've built in my head, and I might be way off (I often am). And now that I'm writing this, I'm going to have to go back and re-watch that Falcons game. Edited March 20, 2022 by Rocky Landing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said: I'm not drawing any necessary correlation between the run game, and Bates' presence as a starter, and I know the Bills were working on fixing the run game well before he started, but... I don't think the run game really started to gel until the second Pats* game, and I feel like it really took a subsequent big step in the Falcons game the following week. And that does actually coincide with Bates starting. I also never felt like the "big issue" in the run game was the quality of our RBs, especially Motor. I always thought it was scheme, and O-line. (And correct me if I'm wrong, but was it 2019 that the Bills switched to zone blocking, at which point pass protection improved, and the run game took a dive?) It was last season (2020). Cover1 did a piece after the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 The Bills O-line is starting to be a real concern for me. They have 4 starting caliber linemen and not much else. Brining back Bates would be a nice move but this team then has very little depth. Only Doyle and Ford would be behind the starting 5. Without Bates there is a gaping hole at LG that should be filled at pick 25. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 20, 2022 Share Posted March 20, 2022 47 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: I just dont believe they will role with Ford with no other plan Just to be clear, that is not something I or anyone else here seems to have suggested they will do. Low tender on Bates not.eq.to Losing Bates Losing Bates not.eq.to "role" (sic) with Ford with no other plan Just now, billsfan89 said: The Bills O-line is starting to be a real concern for me. They have 4 starting caliber linemen and not much else. Brining back Bates would be a nice move but this team then has very little depth. Only Doyle and Ford would be behind the starting 5. Without Bates there is a gaping hole at LG that should be filled at pick 25. Again, I would argue that we have a real need to draft a quality OLman (probably in the 1st 3 rounds) regardless of whether or not we sign Bates. But either way, insisting the hole be filled at Pick 25 is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Just to be clear, that is not something I or anyone else here seems to have suggested they will do. Low tender on Bates not.eq.to Losing Bates Losing Bates not.eq.to "role" (sic) with Ford with no other plan Again, I would argue that we have a real need to draft a quality OLman (probably in the 1st 3 rounds) regardless of whether or not we sign Bates. But either way, insisting the hole be filled at Pick 25 is silly. If they don't resign Bates easily 2 out of the top 3 picks need to be on the O-line. Insisting on pick 25 maybe hyperbolic but the O-line is becoming a massive area of concern for me personally. Not much out on the free agency market and Bates is not yet back officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 24 minutes ago, billsfan89 said: If they don't resign Bates easily 2 out of the top 3 picks need to be on the O-line. Insisting on pick 25 maybe hyperbolic but the O-line is becoming a massive area of concern for me personally. Not much out on the free agency market and Bates is not yet back officially. Oh yeah? How do you feel about CB depth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dopey Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said: Lol, because he wouldn't get millions here ?? If you're smart you know how to manage your money if not your going to blow it all anyway. Always go for the championship. Lol??? I think Bates is on the same page as I am. Otherwise, he would have signed with us by now. Again, a championship isn't a given. The money is. Especially for an undrafted FA. Seems like a smart guy who would love to manage more than what he's tendered. Pretty sure he's going to go where he makes the most money. If we match him, great. But 1 year for 2.433 million vs more money?!? You love the Bills more than he does. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Bates is 25 and going into the 4th year of his NFL career. He's got time to make more money. His best option is to take the 1-year tender, play on a SB-winning team and then cash-in next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brand J Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 If Bates signs a contract that averages more than $3.9M/yr and Beane doesn’t match, I think it’ll be his one mistake this off-season. I imagine Beane gambled and didn’t tender Bates at 2nd round compensation because he didn’t think another team valued him at $3.9M based on the limited time he was on the field. If he matches, then it’s simply allowing another team to do the contract work for him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Rocky Landing said: Oh yeah? How do you feel about CB depth? The CB depth isn't great but I like Dane as a CB2 more than most. I also think that this coaching staff has shown to make chicken soup out of chicken ***** when it comes to the secondary. I think there is also more corners out on the market and better options deeper in the draft to figure out the CB position than the O-line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Noggin Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 5 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said: Lol, because he wouldn't get millions here ?? If you're smart you know how to manage your money if not your going to blow it all anyway. Always go for the championship. In the uncertain, Not For Long career of a professional football player, hitting free agency while healthy and coming off a promising season, it would be kind of crazy to choose currently perceived off-season TEAM power rankings over a rare chance at guaranteed money and contract term. The low RFA tender is still, of course, fine compensation for a year's work, but when compared to maybe twice the guaranteed money (or more...5+ million compared to 2.5) in such an unpredictable and brief career...well it's easy to understand the players who take the life-changing GUARANTEED payout. Guys who are later in their careers, after earning many millions, can more easily justify then leaving millions on the table to chase a ring. Of course to pleebs like many of us, any NFL salary for a year or more would be a life-altering haul. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 8 hours ago, Rocky Landing said: I've been wondering what Ike's future is, also. Even without the injury, I don't know that there was enough film on him to get a significant offer from another team. But, they've invested a lot of time in his development (I believe also occasionally using him as a C in practice?). He looked pretty good up until that non-contact injury-- seemed to improve each game. Do the Bills keep him? And does anyone know the timeline for his possible return? It's hard to tell with an Achilles tear. Some players don't come back at all. These days something like 2/3-3/4 apparently do. Eric Fischer tore his in the 2021 AFCCG and was back playing week 2 of the 2021 season, which must mean he returned to practice in about 8 months. He acknowledged he was not fully recovered at first, and he improved as the season progressed. There are some studies that say the first year back from the injury, the player is not as good, but after a year passes they regain their original performance It's a huge blow for a guy who was just beginning to get NFL starts. 19 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said: In the uncertain, Not For Long career of a professional football player, hitting free agency while healthy and coming off a promising season, it would be kind of crazy to choose currently perceived off-season TEAM power rankings over a rare chance at guaranteed money and contract term. The low RFA tender is still, of course, fine compensation for a year's work, but when compared to maybe twice the guaranteed money (or more...5+ million compared to 2.5) in such an unpredictable and brief career...well it's easy to understand the players who take the life-changing GUARANTEED payout. Guys who are later in their careers, after earning many millions, can more easily justify then leaving millions on the table to chase a ring. Of course to pleebs like many of us, any NFL salary for a year or more would be a life-altering haul. Sure - if the other team offers more guaranteed money. But most NFL contracts offered to lower-tier players with minimal playing time, also have minimal guaranteed money. The tender is fully guaranteed. I could be mistaken, but I think the most likely outcome is that another team may offer Bates a higher overall 2 year contract with a bit more guaranteed $$. So he might get a 2 year, $6M contract with $3M guaranteed, for example. Of course, as you point out, to most of us an extra $600k is Real Money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Dopey said: Lol??? I think Bates is on the same page as I am. Otherwise, he would have signed with us by now. Again, a championship isn't a given. The money is. Especially for an undrafted FA. Seems like a smart guy who would love to manage more than what he's tendered. Pretty sure he's going to go where he makes the most money. If we match him, great. But 1 year for 2.433 million vs more money?!? You love the Bills more than he does. I agree with your overall point, but a key point for these guys to watch, always, is how much of that money is guaranteed and when? An example of difference would be Jon Feliciano's contract with the Bills last season. He was offered, and signed, a 3 year, $14.4M contract with the Bills. But $4.4M was guaranteed. So it was really a 1 year, $4.4M contract, with the employer's option to keep him around at a defined price-point if his play met their standard. Bates could be offered a 2 year, $10M contract but if only $2.433M is guaranteed, he could in theory get cut by that team before the first day of the season and have only the same amount of pay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerme1 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 On 3/19/2022 at 10:18 AM, ScottLaw said: Can’t imagine Ford is on the team next season… it would raise some red flags if he was…. Agreed but what if Lawn Chair says I can work him up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GolfandBills Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 5 hours ago, billsfan89 said: The Bills O-line is starting to be a real concern for me. They have 4 starting caliber linemen and not much else. Brining back Bates would be a nice move but this team then has very little depth. Only Doyle and Ford would be behind the starting 5. Without Bates there is a gaping hole at LG that should be filled at pick 25. They haven’t lost Bates. I’m sure they will match any reasonable contract he’s offered. I think they’ll give Ford a shot to be a reserve and probably draft a guard or two. I’m not worried about it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dopey Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I agree with your overall point, but a key point for these guys to watch, always, is how much of that money is guaranteed and when? An example of difference would be Jon Feliciano's contract with the Bills last season. He was offered, and signed, a 3 year, $14.4M contract with the Bills. But $4.4M was guaranteed. So it was really a 1 year, $4.4M contract, with the employer's option to keep him around at a defined price-point if his play met their standard. Bates could be offered a 2 year, $10M contract but if only $2.433M is guaranteed, he could in theory get cut by that team before the first day of the season and have only the same amount of pay. I'm that scenario, I agree. My point to Buffalo Barbarian was, Bates will take the best offer. If he gets a better offer, I highly doubt he'll turn it down to stay here to win a championship that's not guaranteed. That's"fan" talk. An NFL player's career, on average, is pretty short due to injury. He's going where the $ is. He's not a 1st round pick who's made huge money. I believe this is the first contract offer worth over $1 million. Hope we can somehow keep him. Not sure we'll match offers greater than ours, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExWNYer Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 On 3/18/2022 at 1:53 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said: I don't think we need multiple threads for every team that might try to poach the dude off his "right of first refusal" RFA tender by the Bills A Bates watch thread? I think we got 'Rickrolled'. 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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