Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦

[Tiberius]

51 minutes ago, sherpa said:

Regarding inventories, I posted this on Dec. 9 in this forum:

 

"First on an inventory note, I was watching the CEO of Raytheon on CNBC the other day and he mentioned that in the first ten months of this war, Ukraine had gone through ten years of Javelin production and fifteen years of Stinger production.

Obviously, we need to get those, or replacements back up to acceptable inventories."

So is the number of targets those would destroy are way down also. And the GOP trying to cut defense spending is not a good idea 

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3814551-mccarthy-weighs-in-on-defense-spending-cuts-amid-gop-divisions/

8 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

This is concerning. Imagine the production the US would go through if we ever got involved in a real war? We probably need a 40 year stock pile. 

With technology changing so quickly, forty years is just too far over the horizon to plan for now 

[sherpa]

2 hours ago, Tiberius said:

So is the number of targets those would destroy are way down also. And the GOP trying to cut defense spending is not a good idea 

 

 

This is utter nonsense .

The "number of targets" is a specious suggestion.

 

The "GOP trying to cut defense spending," is a great idea if you actually read the link.

The cuts suggested were in non effective, wasteful issues, and would take us "back" to a few week's ago defense spending.

Not real cuts.

 

Few know it, but the mandate that the US military has is to be able to fight a two front war.

The locations change, but that is now thought to be a European/NATO thing, and a South China Sea thing-anyone can figure out who that is directed at.

 

In order to do that, you have to have the manpower, equipment and logistics.

 

[Tiberius]

16 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

This is utter nonsense .

The "number of targets" is a specious suggestion.

 

The "GOP trying to cut defense spending," is a great idea if you actually read the link.

The cuts suggested were in non effective, wasteful issues, and would take us "back" to a few week's ago defense spending.

Not real cuts.

 

Few know it, but the mandate that the US military has is to be able to fight a two front war.

The locations change, but that is now thought to be a European/NATO thing, and a South China Sea thing-anyone can figure out who that is directed at.

 

In order to do that, you have to have the manpower, equipment and logistics.

 

Not real cuts!! That’s funny! You really are a clown! 
 

Boy, you really twist like shape shifter. 
 

Not as good as your “Oh the old Testiment rules don’t apply to Christians” garbage you vomited up, but still clown funny 

[B-Man]

 

[TSOL]

5 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Have you seen stories such as the NYT's report on how these weapons transfers are starting to impact the US military's preparedness levels?  Drawing down stockpiles to the point where inventory in strategic areas of potential conflict are being depleted.  Drawing down military hardware inventory in places like Israel and South Korea.  Being used up faster than they can be replaced and straining supplies of key and scarce inputs.  To the point where military leaders and Pentagon planners are raising concerns that draw downs are putting direct U.S. interests and US forces at risk.  I expect a news outlet such as The Times publishing such a report signals were approaching some policy tipping point.  

 

I believe the implication is that like all recent wars and conflicts our government gets involved in they will sooner rather than later shift focus elsewhere or no longer view helping Ukraine as a key interest.  And hang them out to dry, aka Afghanistan.  Then suddenly all the people shouting to the rafters about the need to provide unlimited support for democracy will immediately alter their opinions and support the establishments change of heart and direction.  Most likely shifting the task completely onto our European "partners" and when that strategy flops placing the blame for failure on them. 

 

 

That's a good point. Don't forget, the Biden administration is also depleting our strategic oil reserves too. 

 

 

[B-Man]

 

The Next Ukraine Aid Conference Will Reflect a Change in Western Views on the End Game in Putin's War

 

The Ukraine Defense Contact Group is set to meet Friday at the US-leased airbase in Ramstein, Germany. These meetings started in April (see 40 Nations Meet at Ramstein to Coordinate Ukraine Aid and Further Integrate Ukraine Into NATO). They bring together representatives from about 40 nations to coordinate military and non-lethal aid for Ukraine. This meeting promises to be the most significant, perhaps contentious, meeting so far. Following on the announcement last week that the US would provide M2 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles comes this via Politico.

 

 

The key issue before this meeting is what next?

 

First, Ukraine stopped the Russian invasion. In its September-October offensive (Putin’s War, Week 28. The Sitzkrieg Goes Blitzkrieg as Ukraine’s Army Moves 50 Kilometers in Two Days), Then Ukraine pushed the Russians out of most of their gains during the invasion and used maneuver to (nearly) bloodlessly force the Russians to abandon Kherson city and the territory on the right bank of the Dnieper River (Putin’s War, Week 37. Kherson Liberated and Winter Comes). Now would be the time to negotiate an end, except Russia has unilaterally annexed four more Ukrainian oblasts. Even the “foreign policy realists” are belatedly coming to the conclusion that there are exactly three ways to end this war.

 

• Ukraine is forced to accede to Russia’s terms and give up its entire Black Sea coastline, and be reduced to a satrapy of Moscow;
• A truce line is established along the current line of contact, creating another “frozen conflict” and setting the stage for another Russian invasion in the future; or,
• Russia is driven out of Ukraine, possibly even Crimea, and NATO gives Ukraine security guarantees against any future Russian invasion.

Much of NATO is leaving toward option number three.

 

 

More at the link: 

 https://redstate.com/streiff/2023/01/18/the-next-ukraine-aid-conference-will-reflect-a-change-in-western-views-on-the-end-game-in-putins-war-n690498

[sherpa]

8 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Not real cuts!! That’s funny! You really are a clown! 
 

Boy, you really twist like shape shifter. 
 

Not as good as your “Oh the old Testiment rules don’t apply to Christians” garbage you vomited up, but still clown funny 

 

You are simply too ignorant.

I never said the old Testament rules don't apply.

I said there are items in the "Law," outlined in the Old Testament that Jews were to live by that do not apply to Christians, and I pointed many out.

You seem to have forgotten that, as well as misquoting me.

 

Here's an example as it may be easier for you to understand.

In the 1967-68 NCAA basketball season, dunking was ruled illegal.

If someone said, in 1980, that the NCAA basketball rules had been modified, and dunking was now legal, only an idiot suggest that that person said no rues prior to 67 existed in '80.

 

Is that too complicated?

 

Read the suggestions from McCarthy about leaving defense spending where it was weeks ago.

See his suggestions? Eliminating woke classes/seminars that are expensive and time consuming.

Ceasing to fund expensive and thus non productive weird fuel programs was mentioned. By the way, some have promise, not that you would know.

 

Suggesting that run downs in US weapons inventory below acceptable levels need not be worried about because there are fewer targets is all one needs to see to determine your level of knowledge.

 

 

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, sherpa said:

 

You are simply too ignorant.

I never said the old Testament rules don't apply.

I said there are items in the "Law," outlined in the Old Testament that Jews were to live by that do not apply to Christians, and I pointed many out.

You seem to have forgotten that, as well as misquoting me.

 

Here's an example as it may be easier for you to understand.

In the 1967-68 NCAA basketball season, dunking was ruled illegal.

If someone said, in 1980, that the NCAA basketball rules had been modified, and dunking was now legal, only an idiot suggest that that person said no rues prior to 67 existed in '80.

 

Is that too complicated?

 

Read the suggestions from McCarthy about leaving defense spending where it was weeks ago.

See his suggestions? Eliminating woke classes/seminars that are expensive and time consuming.

Ceasing to fund expensive and thus non productive weird fuel programs was mentioned. By the way, some have promise, not that you would know.

 

Suggesting that run downs in US weapons inventory below acceptable levels need not be worried about because there are fewer targets is all one needs to see to determine your level of knowledge.

 

 

No, you were wrong and I busted you on that. Wow, claiming to be a Biblical scholars and then saying something so stupid that this poor nonbeliever could pick it out easily. Even I know the Ten Commandments are old testiment 

9 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

The Next Ukraine Aid Conference Will Reflect a Change in Western Views on the End Game in Putin's War

 

The Ukraine Defense Contact Group is set to meet Friday at the US-leased airbase in Ramstein, Germany. These meetings started in April (see 40 Nations Meet at Ramstein to Coordinate Ukraine Aid and Further Integrate Ukraine Into NATO). They bring together representatives from about 40 nations to coordinate military and non-lethal aid for Ukraine. This meeting promises to be the most significant, perhaps contentious, meeting so far. Following on the announcement last week that the US would provide M2 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles comes this via Politico.

 

 

The key issue before this meeting is what next?

 

First, Ukraine stopped the Russian invasion. In its September-October offensive (Putin’s War, Week 28. The Sitzkrieg Goes Blitzkrieg as Ukraine’s Army Moves 50 Kilometers in Two Days), Then Ukraine pushed the Russians out of most of their gains during the invasion and used maneuver to (nearly) bloodlessly force the Russians to abandon Kherson city and the territory on the right bank of the Dnieper River (Putin’s War, Week 37. Kherson Liberated and Winter Comes). Now would be the time to negotiate an end, except Russia has unilaterally annexed four more Ukrainian oblasts. Even the “foreign policy realists” are belatedly coming to the conclusion that there are exactly three ways to end this war.

 

• Ukraine is forced to accede to Russia’s terms and give up its entire Black Sea coastline, and be reduced to a satrapy of Moscow;
• A truce line is established along the current line of contact, creating another “frozen conflict” and setting the stage for another Russian invasion in the future; or,
• Russia is driven out of Ukraine, possibly even Crimea, and NATO gives Ukraine security guarantees against any future Russian invasion.

Much of NATO is leaving toward option number three.

 

 

More at the link: 

 https://redstate.com/streiff/2023/01/18/the-next-ukraine-aid-conference-will-reflect-a-change-in-western-views-on-the-end-game-in-putins-war-n690498

Option three. If your going to do a job, do it to the finish 

[Coffeesforclosers]

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

 

The Next Ukraine Aid Conference Will Reflect a Change in Western Views on the End Game in Putin's War

 

The Ukraine Defense Contact Group is set to meet Friday at the US-leased airbase in Ramstein, Germany. These meetings started in April (see 40 Nations Meet at Ramstein to Coordinate Ukraine Aid and Further Integrate Ukraine Into NATO). They bring together representatives from about 40 nations to coordinate military and non-lethal aid for Ukraine. This meeting promises to be the most significant, perhaps contentious, meeting so far. Following on the announcement last week that the US would provide M2 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles comes this via Politico.

 

 

The key issue before this meeting is what next?

 

First, Ukraine stopped the Russian invasion. In its September-October offensive (Putin’s War, Week 28. The Sitzkrieg Goes Blitzkrieg as Ukraine’s Army Moves 50 Kilometers in Two Days), Then Ukraine pushed the Russians out of most of their gains during the invasion and used maneuver to (nearly) bloodlessly force the Russians to abandon Kherson city and the territory on the right bank of the Dnieper River (Putin’s War, Week 37. Kherson Liberated and Winter Comes). Now would be the time to negotiate an end, except Russia has unilaterally annexed four more Ukrainian oblasts. Even the “foreign policy realists” are belatedly coming to the conclusion that there are exactly three ways to end this war.

 

• Ukraine is forced to accede to Russia’s terms and give up its entire Black Sea coastline, and be reduced to a satrapy of Moscow;
• A truce line is established along the current line of contact, creating another “frozen conflict” and setting the stage for another Russian invasion in the future; or,
• Russia is driven out of Ukraine, possibly even Crimea, and NATO gives Ukraine security guarantees against any future Russian invasion.

Much of NATO is leaving toward option number three.

 

 

More at the link: 

 https://redstate.com/streiff/2023/01/18/the-next-ukraine-aid-conference-will-reflect-a-change-in-western-views-on-the-end-game-in-putins-war-n690498

 

Folks have told me I'm argumentative and disagreeable. 

 

So I'm going on the record stating that was a good read. 

 

[sherpa]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

No, you were wrong and I busted you on that. Wow, claiming to be a Biblical scholars and then saying something so stupid that this poor nonbeliever could pick it out easily. Even I know the Ten Commandments are old testiment 

 

 

No.

You didn't "bust" me on anything.

Your first lie is stating I claimed, ever, to be a Biblical scholar.

Your second mistake, or lie, is claiming I said something I didn't, on a subject that anyone with a modicum of knowledge would know, except you.

Your third lie is misstating what McCarthy said, which was not a cut, but a cap at 22 levels.

 

Your fourth ignorance is repeatedly misspelling Testament.  

 

You are either so immersed in partisan nonsense that your ability for discernment is corrupt, or you are simply not smart enough to interpret English.

[Tiberius]

2 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

No.

You didn't "bust" me on anything.

Your first lie is stating I claimed, ever, to be a Biblical scholar.

Your second mistake, or lie, is claiming I said something I didn't, on a subject that anyone with a modicum of knowledge would know, except you.

Your third lie is misstating what McCarthy said, which was not a cut, but a cap at 22 levels.

 

Your fourth ignorance is repeatedly misspelling Testament.  

 

You are either so immersed in partisan nonsense that your ability for discernment is corrupt, or you are simply not smart enough to interpret English.

So sad, keep digging. 

[sherpa]

50 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

So sad, keep digging. 

 

I'm not digging, I'm accusing.

You are a fool and a liar.

Quite clear.

[Tiberius]

9 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

I'm not digging, I'm accusing.

You are a fool and a liar.

Quite clear.

I do admit when I am wrong, I do not bare false witness  

 

You? Well, not so much 

[sherpa]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

I do admit when I am wrong, I do not bare false witness  

 

You? Well, not so much 

 

I'd be glad to, when that exists.

Point it out with real quotes, not made up ones that eliminate essential words.

 

Know what?

It aint gonna happen.

 

You and your partner are going to continue quotidian efforts, and it doesn't matter what happens in disagreement, because you will continue to invent posts, misrepresent policy and view and do what you do.

 

Everybody knows it.

[Joe Ferguson forever]

5 hours ago, sherpa said:

 

This is utter nonsense .

The "number of targets" is a specious suggestion.

 

The "GOP trying to cut defense spending," is a great idea if you actually read the link.

The cuts suggested were in non effective, wasteful issues, and would take us "back" to a few week's ago defense spending.

Not real cuts.

 

Few know it, but the mandate that the US military has is to be able to fight a two front war.

The locations change, but that is now thought to be a European/NATO thing, and a South China Sea thing-anyone can figure out who that is directed at.

 

In order to do that, you have to have the manpower, equipment and logistics.

 

we are fighting a war on one front now.  And winning without losing blood.  Are you saying we are currently unable to fight a second one?

[Tiberius]

CIA Director William J. Burns traveled in secret to Ukraine’s capital at the end of last week to brief President Volodymyr Zelensky on his expectations for what Russia is planning militarily in the coming weeks and months, said a U.S. official and other people familiar with the visit.

 

Burns’s travel comes at a critical juncture in the 11-month war. Russian forces are mounting a massive assault near the eastern city of Bakhmut that is causing many casualties on both sides and forcing Ukraine to weigh its resources there as it prepares a major counteroffensive elsewhere in the country.

Top of mind for Zelensky and his senior intelligence officials during the meeting was how long Ukraine could expect U.S. and Western assistance to continue following Republicans’ takeover of the House and a drop-off in support of Ukraine aid among parts of the U.S. electorate, said people familiar with the meeting. All spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private high-level engagement.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/01/19/cia-william-burns-zelensky-ukraine-russia/

49 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

I'd be glad to, when that exists.

Point it out with real quotes, not made up ones that eliminate essential words.

 

Know what?

It aint gonna happen.

 

You and your partner are going to continue quotidian efforts, and it doesn't matter what happens in disagreement, because you will continue to invent posts, misrepresent policy and view and do what you do.

 

Everybody knows it.

Good call, you know I won't waste the time to go back and find that post. 

 

But maybe you should! It will vindicate you! And me too! If I'm wrong I'll admit it. So does us both a favor and go dig it up 

[Tiberius]

 

 

More from the post article: 

 

Russia, meanwhile, is looking to launch its own offensive in the spring, stoking expectations that it will draft more troops following last September’s mobilization of 300,000 men. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu unveiled a proposal in December to increase the country’s military personnel to 1.5 million by 2026, up from 1.1 million now.

Moscow, which has recruited convicted felons in the war effort, has shown a willingness to endure heavy casualties. Last year, many of the recruits were highly inexperienced, given only two weeks of training before being sent to the front lines. But in recent months, Russia has improved its training, according to Western intelligence officials.

On Wednesday, Zelensky urged Ukraine’s supporters to send tanks and air defense missiles, and criticized Germany for refusing to supply its modern Leopard tanks unless the United States sends the more advanced Abrams tanks.

“There are times where we shouldn’t hesitate,” Zelensky told an audience in Davos, Switzerland, via video feed.

That same day, NATO defense ministers began a two-day meeting in Brussels where the topic of Leopard tanks divided allies, with Poland threatening to send 14 tanks regardless of whether Germany approves. Technically, Germany’s approval is required because it is the manufacturer of the Leopard 2.

“Either we will obtain this consent, or we will do the right thing ourselves,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told a local broadcaster.

[TSOL]

No one is going to "win" in this war. There will only be loser 1 and loser 2 

[B-Man]

2 hours ago, Tiberius said:

 

I do admit when I am wrong.

 

 

 

This is a lie.

 

You are proven wrong on a daily  hourly basis.

 

and you always fall back on "we are too stupid to understand your point" or you deflect to another dodge.

 

I advocate ignoring your responses, but that one was just too far.

 

 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, sherpa said:

I'd be glad to, when that exists.

Point it out with real quotes, not made up ones that eliminate essential words.

 

Know what?

It aint gonna happen.

 

You and your partner are going to continue quotidian efforts, and it doesn't matter what happens in disagreement, because you will continue to invent posts, misrepresent policy and view and do what you do.

 

Everybody knows it.

 

That's what they do to gin up outrage.  It's incredibly effective.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Doc

[reddogblitz]

6 hours ago, Tiberius said:

 

 

More from the post article: 

 

Russia, meanwhile, is looking to launch its own offensive in the spring, stoking expectations that it will draft more troops following last September’s mobilization of 300,000 men. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu unveiled a proposal in December to increase the country’s military personnel to 1.5 million by 2026, up from 1.1 million now.

Moscow, which has recruited convicted felons in the war effort, has shown a willingness to endure heavy casualties. Last year, many of the recruits were highly inexperienced, given only two weeks of training before being sent to the front lines. But in recent months, Russia has improved its training, according to Western intelligence officials.

On Wednesday, Zelensky urged Ukraine’s supporters to send tanks and air defense missiles, and criticized Germany for refusing to supply its modern Leopard tanks unless the United States sends the more advanced Abrams tanks.

“There are times where we shouldn’t hesitate,” Zelensky told an audience in Davos, Switzerland, via video feed.

That same day, NATO defense ministers began a two-day meeting in Brussels where the topic of Leopard tanks divided allies, with Poland threatening to send 14 tanks regardless of whether Germany approves. Technically, Germany’s approval is required because it is the manufacturer of the Leopard 2.

“Either we will obtain this consent, or we will do the right thing ourselves,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told a local broadcaster.

 

14 tanks. Yeah that'll win it for Ukraine.

[Tiberius]

12 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

This is a lie.

 

You are proven wrong on a daily  hourly basis.

 

and you always fall back on "we are too stupid to understand your point" or you deflect to another dodge.

 

I advocate ignoring your responses, but that one was just too far.

 

 

Oh you are just butt hurt because I call your BS all the time 

[Tiberius]

8 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

14 tanks. Yeah that'll win it for Ukraine.

There are many countries donating more, tanks, APC, artillery and more. Yes, they could use more tanks though

 

 

 https://news.yahoo.com/putin-secret-attack-plan-ukrainian-094858834.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJ1ZGdlcmVwb3J0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHcV7twa40Ro3TycGWSE4Y0lVcPFTgFfeJOp1juB5CvcKRDWRt4bKzYSNbAjICrqqS1mhclLSBqUhbtEvKd5TEKPP29r-PBpYHqpfGT85kQ6w2LF6fndWeqcjONg9ug-DTLzA7SbzVk-4ehw8IJqOXJ_iWaLuz63ipiS1iVfw79rKYIV—Ukraine is braced for a major new offensive that could begin within weeks. One of President Zelensky’s key insiders told The Daily Beast that they expect a looming Russian move to encircle the country with a simultaneous attack on three fronts.

Rustem Umerov, a member of the team negotiating with Russia, said the Kremlin was preparing for a fresh advance which could begin as soon as February. The assault would come from the north, over the Belarusian border, from the Russian strongholds in the east of Ukraine, and from the south, where the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea was seized by Vladimir Putin’s forces in 2014 and nearby cities of Melitopol and Zaporizhzhia are now also under Russian control.

“Russians are encircling us from 240 degrees, attacking from the Black Sea, from Belarus and the Luhansk and Donetsk regions,” Umerov said.

Russia declared its first victory in the war for months this week, claiming they had taken the salt-mining town of Soledar in Donetsk. There is still some dispute as to whether fighting continues for control of the town but the Russians have clearly made territorial gains—at a huge cost.

[Tommy Callahan]

3 hours ago, Tiberius said:

There are many countries donating more, tanks, APC, artillery and more. Yes, they could use more tanks though

 

 

 https://news.yahoo.com/putin-secret-attack-plan-ukrainian-094858834.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJ1ZGdlcmVwb3J0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHcV7twa40Ro3TycGWSE4Y0lVcPFTgFfeJOp1juB5CvcKRDWRt4bKzYSNbAjICrqqS1mhclLSBqUhbtEvKd5TEKPP29r-PBpYHqpfGT85kQ6w2LF6fndWeqcjONg9ug-DTLzA7SbzVk-4ehw8IJqOXJ_iWaLuz63ipiS1iVfw79rKYIV—Ukraine is braced for a major new offensive that could begin within weeks. One of President Zelensky’s key insiders told The Daily Beast that they expect a looming Russian move to encircle the country with a simultaneous attack on three fronts.

Rustem Umerov, a member of the team negotiating with Russia, said the Kremlin was preparing for a fresh advance which could begin as soon as February. The assault would come from the north, over the Belarusian border, from the Russian strongholds in the east of Ukraine, and from the south, where the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea was seized by Vladimir Putin’s forces in 2014 and nearby cities of Melitopol and Zaporizhzhia are now also under Russian control.

“Russians are encircling us from 240 degrees, attacking from the Black Sea, from Belarus and the Luhansk and Donetsk regions,” Umerov said.

Russia declared its first victory in the war for months this week, claiming they had taken the salt-mining town of Soledar in Donetsk. There is still some dispute as to whether fighting continues for control of the town but the Russians have clearly made territorial gains—at a huge cost.

LMAO.

 

Yahoo news.

Could

Zelensky's unnamed insider told the daily beast.

 

No need to even read after that.

 

 

[All_Pro_Bills]

1 hour ago, Chris farley said:

LMAO.

 

Yahoo news.

Could

Zelensky's unnamed insider told the daily beast.

 

No need to even read after that.

 

 

Putin's secret attack plan!  Or not so secret attack plan it would appear.  The Russian's will mount an offense from positions they currently hold.  Brilliant tactical assessment that must have taken about 15 seconds of very hard thinking to conclude.     

[reddogblitz]

5 hours ago, Tiberius said:

There are many countries donating more, tanks, APC, artillery and more. Yes, they could use more tanks though

 

 

 https://news.yahoo.com/putin-secret-attack-plan-ukrainian-094858834.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJ1ZGdlcmVwb3J0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHcV7twa40Ro3TycGWSE4Y0lVcPFTgFfeJOp1juB5CvcKRDWRt4bKzYSNbAjICrqqS1mhclLSBqUhbtEvKd5TEKPP29r-PBpYHqpfGT85kQ6w2LF6fndWeqcjONg9ug-DTLzA7SbzVk-4ehw8IJqOXJ_iWaLuz63ipiS1iVfw79rKYIV—Ukraine is braced for a major new offensive that could begin within weeks. One of President Zelensky’s key insiders told The Daily Beast that they expect a looming Russian move to encircle the country with a simultaneous attack on three fronts.

Rustem Umerov, a member of the team negotiating with Russia, said the Kremlin was preparing for a fresh advance which could begin as soon as February. The assault would come from the north, over the Belarusian border, from the Russian strongholds in the east of Ukraine, and from the south, where the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea was seized by Vladimir Putin’s forces in 2014 and nearby cities of Melitopol and Zaporizhzhia are now also under Russian control.

“Russians are encircling us from 240 degrees, attacking from the Black Sea, from Belarus and the Luhansk and Donetsk regions,” Umerov said.

Russia declared its first victory in the war for months this week, claiming they had taken the salt-mining town of Soledar in Donetsk. There is still some dispute as to whether fighting continues for control of the town but the Russians have clearly made territorial gains—at a huge cost.

 

But I thought Zelensky had them on the run and Pooty Poot was losing.  Coulda sworn I read this on here somewhere.

[Tiberius]

3 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

But I thought Zelensky had them on the run and Pooty Poot was losing.  Coulda sworn I read this on here somewhere.

Ya, so? 

[All_Pro_Bills]

17 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Ya, so? 

So, like most wars our government has backed recently where things are said to be going great and then all the sudden.  presto, not so great, if the unthinkable happens and the Russian's ultimately prevail then the people running the show in Washington and NATO need to explain why they blew smoke up everybody's backside with all the good news stories to the contrary.  

[Tiberius]

Just now, All_Pro_Bills said:

So, like most wars our government has backed recently where things are said to be going great and then all the sudden.  presto, not so great, if the unthinkable happens and the Russian's ultimately prevail then the people running the show in Washington and NATO need to explain why they blew smoke up everybody's backside with all the good news stories to the contrary.  

The Russian army is not going to prevail. 

 

The real worry is a nuclear bomb going off. 

[SoCal Deek]

If you’re all bored while waiting for this weekend’s playoff games…go back and read the first couple of pages of this thread. Much like the Covid thread

[reddogblitz]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

The Russian army is not going to prevail. 

 

You have no idea.

 

You got a crystal ball between your legs or something?

[Tiberius]

 

[Tiberius]

 

[All_Pro_Bills]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

 

Anyone remember how many NV and VC killed the US reported daily during the Vietnam war?  

[B-Man]

 

 

Expanding The Shrinking Russian Army Vlad’s in another bind.

 

January 21, 2023: The Russian government increased the legal maximum number of its active-duty military personnel from 1,013,628 to 1,150,628 personnel. It is unlikely that this number will ever be reached. At the end of 2021 the Russian ground forces had about 400,000 men while the navy and air force each had about 150,000. About a third of air force personnel were paratroopers or air mobile infantry. The navy had about 12,000 marines, who guarded naval bases in peacetime. Right now that means the heavy Russian losses since the invasion began, and failure to mobilize many replacements, reduced the army to about 250,000 personnel. The airborne forces and marines also suffered heavy losses but more of them are still in service.

 

Heavy combat losses reduced the personnel strength so sharply because the Russian army has far fewer soldiers providing logistic and transportation services. These are provided by government or private contractors to assemble and move supplies close to the combat zone, where military trucks and drivers move the supplies to army maintained collection points or the combat units. This works inside Russia where the state-controlled railroads are equipped for operated by civilians who are trained for such support. For a major war against Russia, civilian trucks and drivers are mobilized for this. Such a mobilization disrupts the economy but that is seen as necessary t0 defend Russia.

 

This why the Ukrainian invasion was not called a war but an “internal operation” in what Russia declared was Russian territory controlled by rebels. Russia did not expect the Ukrainians’ massive resistance or their destruction of so many Russian trucks and supply collection points. This dramatically weakened Russian supply capabilities inside Ukraine, especially after Ukraine received guided GMLRS rockets that hit Russian supply depots because of information supplied by Ukrainians or NATO supplied aerial and satellite surveillance. Russian forces inside Ukraine are chronically short of ammunition, food, fuel and much else by these Ukrainian tactics. Resorting to looting civilian supplies in occupied areas only partially replaces the supplies destroyed in transit or stored inside Ukraine.

 

https://strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20230121.aspx

 

 

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[Tiberius]

NATO is communist? What garbage. People watch this trash? 

 

 

[reddogblitz]

14 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

NATO is communist? What garbage. People watch this trash? 

 

 

 

Maybe you can answer that.  Evidently you did.

[Coffeesforclosers]

2 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Expanding The Shrinking Russian Army Vlad’s in another bind.

 

January 21, 2023: The Russian government increased the legal maximum number of its active-duty military personnel from 1,013,628 to 1,150,628 personnel. It is unlikely that this number will ever be reached. At the end of 2021 the Russian ground forces had about 400,000 men while the navy and air force each had about 150,000. About a third of air force personnel were paratroopers or air mobile infantry. The navy had about 12,000 marines, who guarded naval bases in peacetime. Right now that means the heavy Russian losses since the invasion began, and failure to mobilize many replacements, reduced the army to about 250,000 personnel. The airborne forces and marines also suffered heavy losses but more of them are still in service.

 

Heavy combat losses reduced the personnel strength so sharply because the Russian army has far fewer soldiers providing logistic and transportation services. These are provided by government or private contractors to assemble and move supplies close to the combat zone, where military trucks and drivers move the supplies to army maintained collection points or the combat units. This works inside Russia where the state-controlled railroads are equipped for operated by civilians who are trained for such support. For a major war against Russia, civilian trucks and drivers are mobilized for this. Such a mobilization disrupts the economy but that is seen as necessary t0 defend Russia.

 

This why the Ukrainian invasion was not called a war but an “internal operation” in what Russia declared was Russian territory controlled by rebels. Russia did not expect the Ukrainians’ massive resistance or their destruction of so many Russian trucks and supply collection points. This dramatically weakened Russian supply capabilities inside Ukraine, especially after Ukraine received guided GMLRS rockets that hit Russian supply depots because of information supplied by Ukrainians or NATO supplied aerial and satellite surveillance. Russian forces inside Ukraine are chronically short of ammunition, food, fuel and much else by these Ukrainian tactics. Resorting to looting civilian supplies in occupied areas only partially replaces the supplies destroyed in transit or stored inside Ukraine.

 

https://strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20230121.aspx

 

 

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Russia's current tactics focus on using squads of Wagner mercenaries to constantly probe Ukrainian defenses. These guys are loaded down with as many shoulder fired rocket launchers as they can carry.  They're recruited from Prisons and penal units, so Wagner views them as completely expendable. 

 

Usually they get massacred, but as they did around Soledar, they sometimes find a soft spot in Ukrainian defenses. Or live long enough to make one with all the RPGs, themobaric rockets, and god knows what else they're carrying.  Then they're rapidly reinforced with additional "Cannon Meat", to use the Russian phrase.  If they make real headway, they get mountains of artillery support, and then the real Wagner Operators show up to finish blasting a hole in the defense. That's how Soledar was taken if I'm piecing it together right. 

 

These tactics are incredibly "manpower intensive".  Which is odd, because Russia is supposed to be sitting on tens of thousands of Soviet surplus tanks, apcs, and ifvs. And Russia's demographics are ***** horrible. They should be leveraging these massive stocks of Soviet vehicles to increase firepower, limit losses, and improve mobility.

 

Which makes me think either the stocks dont exist. Or they do exist and Russia doesn't have the industry to bring them back online in quantity. Or they've switched to pelting the Ukrainians with "Cannon Meat" while they try and spin up their war industries and rebuild something like a modern, mechanized military.  My guess is the last one. 

 

 

 

[Tiberius]

12 minutes ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

 

 

Which makes me think either the stocks dont exist. Or they do exist and Russia doesn't have the industry to bring them back online in quantity. Or they've switched to pelting the Ukrainians with "Cannon Meat" while they try and spin up their war industries and rebuild something like a modern, mechanized military.  My guess is the last one. 

 

 

 

Yes, and since Russia (Putin) is fine with this war going on forever you are probably right 

[L Ron Burgundy]

On 1/20/2023 at 2:56 PM, Tiberius said:

The Russian army is not going to prevail. 

 

The real worry is a nuclear bomb going off. 

They could win.  Don't underestimate how many of their own people they'll sacrifice.   The world won't give them money and weapons forever.