Dr.Sack Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: That's about how it looks to me too, though I'd have put Henry a lot higher before the injury. Maybe a spot or two higher for Allen as well. Last year, Allen was top two. This year he's only terrific. Let’s update Tier 1 1 - Stafford 7-1 ⬆️ 2 - Murray 7-1 ⬇️ 3 - Prescott 5-1 ➡️ 4 - Brady 6-2 ⬇️ 5 - Allen 5-2 ⬆️ 6 - Carr 5-2 ➡️ 7 - Jackson 5-2 ⬇️ Tier 2 8 - Burrow 5-3 ⬇️ 9 - Herbert 4-3 ⬇️ 10 - Mac Jones 4-4 ⬆️ 11 - Mahomes 4-4 ➡️ 12 - Tannehill 6-2 ⬆️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
x-BillzeBubba Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colin Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 if allen has 50 total tds and the rest of the numbers work themselves out (4500+ passing, not terrible turnovers, say 65% context completion) then he walks away with it. 45-50 total tds and someone else could take it, but he'd still be my odds on favorite. sub 45 total TDs and it gets harder. i really do think the MVP is turning into some kind of fantasy sports thing, mixed with media narrative (which has always been there). if we end up w only 3 or 4 losses it's pretty highly likely that he gets it, even with sub 45 tds. i'd rather have some real football brains sort of meet in a smokey room and just vote on it. who was that guy who used to write for SI, Dr Z? that kind of guy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 There has always been an inherent bias in comparing the raw passing statistics of a team that plays half it's games in an open air stadium at the eastern end of Lake Erie to teams that play in Florida, Southern California, Arizona or in a dome. The home game weather has not been very good this year. At the very least it has added an extra degree of difficulty to deep shots and touch passes. Any metric that ignores that reality is flawed. I have read that Josh is the least sacked QB in the NFL when pressured. That agrees with what my eyes see and I do not know how any rating properly accounts for it. Certainly not the NFL passer rating formula which ignores sacks completely and penalizes throwaways. If the Bills get the #1 seed and beat the Tampa Bay Bradies in the process, I think Josh wins the MVP. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dukestreetking Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 2 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said: I have read that Josh is the least sacked QB in the NFL when pressured. That agrees with what my eyes see and I do not know how any rating properly accounts for it. Agree all but just to add: he's the least sacked in the league, period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 He has best odds and has been near or at the top for weeks now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: That's about how it looks to me too, though I'd have put Henry a lot higher before the injury. Maybe a spot or two higher for Allen as well. Last year, Allen was top two. This year he's only terrific. Allen’s overall numbers through 7 games I think are nearly identical to what they were last year. Even the teams win/loss record is the same. Rushing yardage I think being way up this year compared to last year though. I think it is a case of many more QB’s stepping up their play to a high level this year along with more of them being on 1 and 2 loss teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JESSEFEFFER Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Dukestreetking said: Agree all but just to add: he's the least sacked in the league, period. Sometimes the inference is that this is the sole result of superior pass protection. That's not the story that my eyes tell me. Pressure due to one player is rarely enough to get him sacked. He beats that kind of pressure all the time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dukestreetking Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said: Sometimes the inference is that this is the sole result of superior pass protection. That's not the story that my eyes tell me. Pressure due to one player is rarely enough to get him sacked. He beats that kind of pressure all the time. Without question...this bleeds into my earlier point re his fantastic ToTD/ToTO ratio this year. He's doing so many MVP things, all in the absence of an MVP caliber line (to say the least). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 9 hours ago, Gene1973 said: Some bad takes here buy Simms IMO. I think he is greatly underrating Beasley's ability with the once every five games line. I think Beasely's production is down this year because of the personnel we now use and the game planning. But yesterday proved he can still be a dominant move the chains type of go to receiver. I expect his numbers for the second half of the year to be way up. What the Bills need is strong running game like the Packers but that is easier said then done. The receivers are fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 12 hours ago, Gene1973 said: Lets say both Allen and Stafford finish 14-3, 4937 yards passing for Stafford, 4682 yds passing for Allen. Stafford is at 69%, Allen at 66%. Stafford has 48 passing TD's, 7 INTs + 0 rushing TD's and 56 yds rushing, 0 fum lost to Allens' 41 passing TD's, 5 INTs + 7 rushing TD's and 489 yds rushing, 2 fum lost. Who is voted MVP? Well... they have the same record, the same number of TDs, the same number of turnovers, but Allen has more yards. On top of that Stafford is throwing to another MVP candidate in Kupp, while Allen is not. That probably hurts Stafford the slightest bit... unless he loses Kupp for a game or 2 and does what Rodgers just did without Adams. So... Allen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Well... they have the same record, the same number of TDs, the same number of turnovers, but Allen has more yards. On top of that Stafford is throwing to another MVP candidate in Kupp, while Allen is not. That probably hurts Stafford the slightest bit... unless he loses Kupp for a game or 2 and does what Rodgers just did without Adams. So... Allen And 6 out of Stafford's 8 games have been in a dome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Ballin Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 We can officially eliminate RB Derrick Henry from MVP talks. For his fantasy owners out there, I know your pain. Our QB Josh Allen IS a big time NFL Superstar. This is awesome. Stay healthy. Keep it up. He'll be number one in Buffalo Bills' All Time QB records in short time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freak-O Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 17 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: Some bad takes here buy Simms IMO. I think he is greatly underrating Beasley's ability with the once every five games line. I think Beasely's production is down this year because of the personnel we now use and the game planning. But yesterday proved he can still be a dominant move the chains type of go to receiver. I expect his numbers for the second half of the year to be way up. What the Bills need is strong running game like the Packers but that is easier said then done. The receivers are fine. I agree. It was almost like he hasn't seen any of the previous games and just looked at (some) stats. The Bills are very close to the top when it comes to offensive production so them needing more weapons, and especially a problematic guy like Beckham, is just not true. Simms is usually on point but this time he was not in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 16 hours ago, Doc said: And 6 out of Stafford's 8 games have been in a dome. it’s the JA super fan you are speaking to save your breath. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick Duffy Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said: it’s the JA super fan you are speaking to save your breath. To be fair, I would think the majority of us are Josh Allen "super fans" lol, Edited November 3, 2021 by Sheneneh Jenkins 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 On 11/1/2021 at 12:19 AM, Generic_Bills_Fan said: Raw stats is not how the award is supposed to work in theory…plus I’m sure this has been mentioned to death but we have played one less game than a lot of those teams…if josh gets 3 tds in that game we are behind he is pretty close to top of that list Stats is what really put over Rodgers vs Allen last year, and yes & no - I included Josh's stats for that day against Miami (but didn't include the stats for the others like Brady who was still playing, Dak Prescott who has only played 6 games yet has comparable numbers, and Derrick Henry, who was still playing...though now is injured). So Josh is behind Brady & Stafford, even if you gave him an 8th game (especially not factoring in Brady's last game). And even though I personally don't feel like Lamar is in contention at this point, I know the voters do, and he'll likely shoot up even more if his rushing total is like last year's (he's also only played 7 games too). But like I said, I still think Josh is very much in the running & if he plays well through this stretch of weaker opponents the wins & numbers should shoot him up to the top with Brady & Stafford. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 52 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said: it’s the JA super fan you are speaking to save your breath. He still needs to be corrected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Buffalo has one of the easiest schedules the rest of the way. 3 highlighted games. Thanksgiving night, NE, and Tom Brady at 4:25. Allen will put up big numbers vs the weak teams. Show out vs the good ones. Buffalo wins the #1 he has big numbers he gets the MVP. Rodgers isnt winning back to back. Dallas has Zeke, Cooper, and Lamb so I dont see him getting it. Seems reasonable to assume if Buffalo get the top seed its because Allen played well. 1 plus 1 = 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted November 3, 2021 Author Share Posted November 3, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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