Picking up Edmunds Option a Rare Beane Mistake

[Brand J]

Love Cover 1 and the effort Erik puts into his evaluations, but are you saying he’s the only one who understands our defense? You can find video (or stats) on anything to support a narrative. I guarantee you Sam Monson and the folks at PFF could put video together on Edmunds that you couldn’t refute. But I’m sure you’d chalk it up as “not understanding Edmunds role in the defense” since they’re not as high on the player as Erik. I’m not only citing gradings, I’m citing Edmunds’ actual stats on the season as well, but go ahead and tell me stats are for losers. You have your perspective and I have mine, neither is going to change the other so we can leave it at that. 

[34-78-83]

31 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Love Cover 1 and the effort Erik puts into his evaluations, but are you saying he’s the only one who understands our defense? You can find video (or stats) on anything to support a narrative. I guarantee you Sam Monson and the folks at PFF could put video together on Edmunds that you couldn’t refute. But I’m sure you’d chalk it up as “not understanding Edmunds role in the defense” since they’re not as high on the player as Erik. I’m not only citing gradings, I’m citing Edmunds’ actual stats on the season as well, but go ahead and tell me stats are for losers. You have your perspective and I have mine, neither is going to change the other so we can leave it at that. 

I don't feel like Erik has a bias toward any of the Bills players. He's been doing this for a while now and they focus specifically on the Bills because of the demand for this content from Bills fans. They do reviews of other NFL teams too. He is just an example, not alone on an island. And he's been doing it for a long time. And He was critical of Edmunds shortcomings prior to this season. Mostly, you can see the scheme responsibilities with your own eyes by watching our team in depth. I use my 42 years of watching the game, many of those in our stadium, my understanding of schemes from researching, and a little bit of coaching kids and having to tech these schemes to them (just the basics) and I use the all 22 that was finally added back into gamepass to help with validation of things I think I see during the games. I don't stay stats are for losers, but stats based on grading and assumptions are fairly useless. Like coverage rating against. Sam Monson himself has explained that THAT stat is decided upon by the defender closest to the receiver at the time of the reception. How freaking valid do you think THAT is in a scheme such as this? How much man coverage do you think TE is involved in? People that still believe Edmunds isn't a well rounded player, performing at a high level THIS season are quite simply stuck on things that they are not actually witnessing.... Or maybe just maybe grading systems that are flawed. All in all he is getting the D into the proper sets pre snap, reading his keys and gap responsibilities well, taking away masses of passing opportunities (WATCH THE VIDEOS WITH THE SOUND OFF IF YOU THINK THERE IS SOME NARRATOR BIAS) and flying around with violence to the ball carrier game in and game out. Baldy has some good breakdowns too. Do you think these guys like Erik and Baldy get some benefit for lying and saying that a certain Bills player is performing better than they actually are? So yes I CAN refute things like "passer rating against" by utilizing these film reviews combined with my own watching of the game and the all 22. I am not alone here there are a ton of astute fans on this forum that understand the game at a high level. If you like I can take some time and present a massive pile of examples of misleading stats that happen all the time for you. Theres quite a few sitting right there in our own Bills/Jets game from yesterday. Although you have declared it as an "I'll go with my stats and you go with your film reviews" end of debate, they are not of equal weight. NFL teams buy the RAW data from these statistical and analytics providers, not the grades. They grade the same way these folks like Erik Turner do. Analytics is indeed massively important for getting an edge in a lot of ways. The Bills seem to understand and use the statistics properly.

[Brand J]

12 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

I don't feel like Erik has a bias toward any of the Bills players. He's been doing this for a while now and they focus specifically on the Bills because of the demand for this content from Bills fans. They do reviews of other NFL teams too. He is just an example, not alone on an island. And he's been doing it for a long time. And He was critical of Edmunds shortcomings prior to this season. Mostly, you can see the scheme responsibilities with your own eyes by watching our team in depth. I use my 42 years of watching the game, many of those in our stadium, my understanding of schemes from researching, and a little bit of coaching kids and having to tech these schemes to them (just the basics) and I use the all 22 that was finally added back into gamepass to help with validation of things I think I see during the games. I don't stay stats are for losers, but stats based on grading and assumptions are fairly useless. Like coverage rating against. Sam Monson himself has explained that THAT stat is decided upon by the defender closest to the receiver at the time of the reception. How freaking valid do you think THAT is in a scheme such as this? How much man coverage do you think TE is involved in? People that still believe Edmunds isn't a well rounded player, performing at a high level THIS season are quite simply stuck on things that they are not actually witnessing.... Or maybe just maybe grading systems that are flawed. All in all he is getting the D into the proper sets pre snap, reading his keys and gap responsibilities well, taking away masses of passing opportunities (WATCH THE VIDEOS WITH THE SOUND OFF IF YOU THINK THERE IS SOME NARRATOR BIAS) and flying around with violence to the ball carrier game in and game out. Baldy has some good breakdowns too. Do you think these guys like Erik and Baldy get some benefit for lying and saying that a certain Bills player is performing better than they actually are? So yes I CAN refute things like "passer rating against" by utilizing these film reviews combined with my own watching of the game and the all 22. I am not alone here there are a ton of astute fans on this forum that understand the game at a high level. If you like I can take some time and present a massive pile of examples of misleading stats that happen all the time for you. Theres quite a few sitting right there in our own Bills/Jets game from yesterday. Although you have declared it as an "I'll go with my stats and you go with your film reviews" end of debate, they are not of equal weight. NFL teams buy the RAW data from these statistical and analytics providers, not the grades. They grade the same way these folks like Erik Turner do. Analytics is indeed massively important for getting an edge in a lot of ways. The Bills seem to understand and use the statistics properly.

Not going to go back and forth with you on this since it’s clear we disagree on Edmunds’ assessment. I don’t feel he’s an all pro, or even pro bowl caliber linebacker. You probably do and that’s okay. The video above where Erik breaks down what Edmunds is doing right can easily be countered by another video that highlights the times he fills the wrong gap, overruns the play, fails to disengage from blocks, misses the tackle (he has a high number of these btw), and so on and so forth. The Bills defense is playing well, so there’s praise all around. Edmunds isn’t a bad linebacker, he’s just not the difference maker or game changer you think he is. He’s just not. The fact AJ Klein could step in and the defense doesn’t miss much at that position (with Star out) is pretty damning. I believe Klein had 2 TFLs in that game alone, while Edmunds has 3 total on the season! It’s not “I’ll go with stats, you go with film review” because as I said you can find anything to fit a narrative. If I had the time and game tape I could easily put together a lowlight video that would make Edmunds look like the worst linebacker in the league. You could do that for any player. Short videos highlighting the instances he did his job successfully - on those particular plays - do not define the player just as a lowlight video would not. 

[34-78-83]

1 minute ago, JayBaller10 said:

Not going to go back and forth with you on this since it’s clear we disagree on Edmunds’ assessment. I don’t feel he’s an all pro, or even pro bowl caliber linebacker. You probably do and that’s okay. The video above where Erik breaks down what Edmunds is doing right can easily be countered by another video that highlights the times he fills the wrong gap, overruns the play, fails to disengage from blocks, misses the tackle (he has a high number of these btw), and so on and so forth. The Bills defense is playing well, so there’s praise all around. Edmunds isn’t a bad linebacker, he’s just not the difference maker or game changer you think he is. He’s just not. The fact AJ Klein could step in and the defense doesn’t miss much at that position (with Star out) is pretty damning. I believe Klein had 2 TFLs in that game alone, while Edmunds has 3 total on the season! It’s not “I’ll go with stats, you go with film review” because as I said you can find anything to fit a narrative. If I had the time and game tape I could easily put together a lowlight video that would make Edmunds look like the worst linebacker in the league. You could do that for any player. Short videos highlighting the instances he did his job successfully - on those particular plays - do not define the player just as a lowlight video would not. 

OMG seriously with the "he's just not" ? Classic. Boy I am convinced then!. And no I don't think you could put together a video from THIS SEASON that would reflect Edmunds as a poor player. In fact I know you cannot. While all players have misses in every game, he's had very few this season. I tried to explain why I am right here and that I do value statistics that are used properly. That apparently meant very little to you and now you are focused on game changing plays such as INTS and FF's I presume? I don't feel like I tried to make a point that he has been exceptional there in that area... Tackles for loss though? Definitely been seeing more of those from him when his assignment allows him to come forward... but more that his game is absolutely transformed from previous seasons and he is now doing things that the Bills likely want/need to see him doing at that position in this defense. I wish you had something you could validate or demonstrate here but - you just don't

[DrDawkinstein]

I dont think it was a mistake to pick up Edmunds' option. But I dont think he deserves much of a 2nd contract either. If we can get him on a team friendly deal, like we have with Milano, Dawkins, and White, then I'm for keeping him around. Just not at top LB money.

 

Sure, it is tough to know exactly what is being asked of Edmunds vs how he is performing, but, we do have an easy comparison to make with Luke Kuechly who played the same position in the same defense, and who had the same Draft Position and similar grading. And as far as my eyes tell me, Edmunds is not performing as well as Kuechly did.

 

However, even if he is underperforming, it seems that LBs take a longer time to "season" and often can turn major corners in their careers at the 6-7 year mark. That's why I'm up for keeping him around on a reasonable deal.

[Brand J]

8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I dont think it was a mistake to pick up Edmunds' option. But I dont think he deserves much of a 2nd contract either. If we can get him on a team friendly deal, like we have with Milano, Dawkins, and White, then I'm for keeping him around. Just not at top LB money.

 

Sure, it is tough to know exactly what is being asked of Edmunds vs how he is performing, but, we do have an easy comparison to make with Luke Kuechly who played the same position in the same defense, and who had the same Draft Position and similar grading. And as far as my eyes tell me, Edmunds is not performing as well as Kuechly did.

 

However, even if he is underperforming, it seems that LBs take a longer time to "season" and often can turn major corners in their careers at the 6-7 year mark. That's why I'm up for keeping him around on a reasonable deal.

100%

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, 34-78-83 said:

OMG seriously with the "he's just not" ? Classic. Boy I am convinced then!. And no I don't think you could put together a video from THIS SEASON that would reflect Edmunds as a poor player. In fact I know you cannot. While all players have misses in every game, he's had very few this season. I tried to explain why I am right here and that I do value statistics that are used properly. That apparently meant very little to you and now you are focused on game changing plays such as INTS and FF's I presume? I don't feel like I tried to make a point that he has been exceptional there in that area... Tackles for loss though? Definitely been seeing more of those from him when his assignment allows him to come forward... but more that his game is absolutely transformed from previous seasons and he is now doing things that the Bills likely want/need to see him doing at that position in this defense. I wish you had something you could validate or demonstrate here but - you just don't

All it takes is a handful of bad plays.  There are a handful of bad plays on tape from this year from my recollection (I don’t care enough about the subject to look them up…..but @Freddie's Dead has done just that.  Look them up yourself.  
 

Just like Erik shows a handful of good plays to show how good he is, the same be done with bad.  No, it wouldn’t “prove” that he’s bad……in the same way that Erik’s video doesn’t “prove” that he’s good.  
 

How much money aav would you be ok paying 49?

[No_Matter_What]

On 9/29/2021 at 8:39 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Klein is 100% gone. $400k in dead cap vs $5.6m to keep him. But what is equally interesting is as this team moves forwards there will not be too many more AJ Kleins and Josh Normans and Emmanuel Sanders. That middle class if contract earning between $5m and $7m. As more of the money gets tied up at the top end of the roster. That is the price you pay for keeping your top guys and it is why you have to be extra good at finding the Andre Smiths and the Tyrel Dodsons and the Dane Jacksons and the Ike Boettgers. Guys who are either 7th rounders or UDFAs who can be functional depth players for your football team and you have to keep finding the odd early day 3 guy like a Matt Milano, Taron Johnson and Gabriel Davis who can be difference makers on the field. You have seen that with the Chiefs in recent years as they have paid their guys their depth has suffered.

I touched this in GTD. How do you see things now?

 

I love playing with sportrac and you are exactly right starting next year. We have like 14M cap space right now and need to sign 17 or so players. To do so even for 1-2M contracts we need couple of restructures/cuts and it will be really tough to keep/gain players for 5-7M/season.

 

Klein seems like top cut candidate (followed by Beasley, Star and maybe Morse/Williams/Feliciano, though I'd hate to cut OL unless we can somehow get better guys). But he really seems like great player for a backup which makes it quite a tough decision.

 

 

[34-78-83]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

All it takes is a handful of bad plays.  There are a handful of bad plays on tape from this year from my recollection (I don’t care enough about the subject to look them up…..but @Freddie's Dead has done just that.  Look them up yourself.  
 

Just like Erik shows a handful of good plays to show how good he is, the same be done with bad.  No, it wouldn’t “prove” that he’s bad……in the same way that Erik’s video doesn’t “prove” that he’s good.  
 

How much money aav would you be ok paying 49?

All players make bad plays yes. This year Edmunds has done what he's supposed to far more often than not. What ratio that is I am not certain but it doesn't seem close. It's not some sort of balanced 50/50 type of thing that is turned into some sort of manipulation based agenda video. Yipes! Regarding the video reviews If you watch the entire review shows (not the clip example but the long review) they do weekly for the games, they cover the entirety in their discussions, not just the good plays. And of course the All 22 allows us all to do that too. The vast vast majority of educated Bills fans that I typically interact with both here in in real life have noted/acknowledged the major change in Edmunds game this season. I get caught up too often trying to prove things to people that either aren't willing to learn, not willing to acknowledge facts or evidence, etc. I need to stop that futile effort at times and just accept that people are gonna people.

 

Regarding the cap I don't concern myself with such things because I have nothing to add, and no expertise there. I can tell you that this is a sound regime (McBeane if you will) who utilizes all the information and resources available to them to make honest judgments of their players, and when they do err, they don't hang on too long and are quick to correct their course. Whatever they end up offering Tremaine will more than likely be a good representation of his worth in the current market. And of course, there's room for creativity in cap management situations.

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

All players make bad plays yes. This year Edmunds has done what he's supposed to far more often than not. What ratio that is I am not certain but it doesn't seem close. It's not some sort of balanced 50/50 type of thing that is turned into some sort of manipulation based agenda video. Yipes! Regarding the video reviews If you watch the entire review shows (not the clip example but the long review) they do weekly for the games, they cover the entirety in their discussions, not just the good plays. And of course the All 22 allows us all to do that too. The vast vast majority of educated Bills fans that I typically interact with both here in in real life have noted/acknowledged the major change in Edmunds game this season. I get caught up too often trying to prove things to people that either aren't willing to learn, not willing to acknowledge facts or evidence, etc. I need to stop that futile effort at times and just accept that people are gonna people.

 

Regarding the cap I don't concern myself with such things because I have nothing to add, and no expertise there. I can tell you that this is a sound regime (McBeane if you will) who utilizes all the information and resources available to them to make honest judgments of their players, and when they do err, they don't hang on too long and are quick to correct their course. Whatever they end up offering Tremaine will more than likely be a good representation of his worth in the current market. And of course, there's room for creativity in cap management situations.

I’m just saying…..you shouldn’t say that we couldn’t put together a low light reel of 49 which could make people think he was bad.   Most breakdowns on YT are 3-10 plays.  49 def has 10 bad plays this year. 
 

My stance on 49, in case you don’t already know.  I love the person and the god given ability/physical being he possesses.  Similar to being the Josh Allen of LBs based on physical gifts.  He is blessed in that regard.  I also feel that his ability to diagnose and react last season is keeping him from being an elite LB.  

 

He’s still a baby though.  I feel that he’ll only get better until he starts slowing down physically.
 

This season, he looks to be back to his 2019 form, which was noticeably better than 2020 imo.  I’ve been happy with his play this year.  

 

I’m just not sure I’m 18M+ per year happy with him yet.  The jury is still out on that one. Need to see more.
 

 

[cba fan]

On 9/19/2021 at 11:18 PM, Billy Zabka said:

I think it's time, watching him play his 4th season, that we have to finally admit that Tremaine Edmunds is simply not a very good MLB.  This is a glamour position in a McD defense and he rarely makes any plays.  On top of that he struggles to even make routine plays.  Sure he racks up tackle numbers and a bogus pro Bowl nod last year hugging guys down 8 yards downfield as a 3 down LB in the middle of this D, but that's about it.  He grades out poor in coverage, misses tackles, struggles to get off blocks and is indecisive out there.  Edmunds was probably the only weak link out there on D today and was outplayed by journeyman AJ Klein when he left the game with cramps.  I wanted to give him time realizing that he was so young and learning a new position but 4 years is enough.  The Bills who will be cap strapped next year should not have picked up his 12.7 million option because he doesn't warrant the salary, the trade up for the pick and option pick up will go down as a rare Beane whiff imo.  I hope I'm wrong but I don't see it an Edmunds turnaround happening.

i hear this a lot he tackled guys 5 or 6 yards downfield. So. If Edmunds did not, who would? Some other defender further downfield. 10, 15 or more??

 

I do get maybe not picking up option as that would possibly have opened door for smaller contract demands by player/agent presumably.

 

I get it he is not Urlacher.  But Bills should not give up on him yet and try him outside where he can use his physical gifts to rush the QB now and then.

[DrDawkinstein]

11 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m just saying…..you shouldn’t say that we couldn’t put together a low light reel of 49 which could make people think he was bad.   Most breakdowns on YT are 3-10 plays.  49 def has 10 bad plays this year. 
 

My stance on 49, in case you don’t already know.  I love the person and the god given ability/physical being he possesses.  Similar to being the Josh Allen of LBs based on physical gifts.  He is blessed in that regard.  I also feel that his ability to diagnose and react last season is keeping him from being an elite LB.  

 

He’s still a baby though.  I feel that he’ll only get better until he starts slowing down physically.
 

This season, he looks to be back to his 2019 form, which was noticeably better than 2020 imo.  I’ve been happy with his play this year.  

 

I’m just not sure I’m 18M+ per year happy with him yet.  The jury is still out on that one. Need to see more.
 

 

 

I can tell you I am 100% sure I am NOT $18M/year happy with him. $18M/year?!?! That's more than we are paying Tre White!

 

If Edmunds wants to stay, he needs to be happy with about $10M/year. I miiiiiiight be able to go to $12M. Maybe. But he needs to show out the rest of this season.

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

I touched this in GTD. How do you see things now?

 

I love playing with sportrac and you are exactly right starting next year. We have like 14M cap space right now and need to sign 17 or so players. To do so even for 1-2M contracts we need couple of restructures/cuts and it will be really tough to keep/gain players for 5-7M/season.

 

Klein seems like top cut candidate (followed by Beasley, Star and maybe Morse/Williams/Feliciano, though I'd hate to cut OL unless we can somehow get better guys). But he really seems like great player for a backup which makes it quite a tough decision.

 

 

 

I still think it is paycut or cut. He won't be back on his current contract.

[NewEra]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I still think it is paycut or cut. He won't be back on his current contract.

Likely the same as Butler and addison imo.  They both took pay cuts…..but I still thought they were overpaid.  Especially for a Sb contending team.  Usually vets that just want a job are paid minimal to play with a SB favorite.  Based on the pay cuts for butler and Addison, I’d expect Klein to get paid around 4M, instead of the 2 that he’s worth.  

[Billy Zabka]

Case closed on Edmunds.  You can have all the athleticism and size in the world but as a 3 down MLB if you can't diagnose a run play, get off blocks, or make impactful plays in the run game the you shouldn't be tying up big money on him. Bellichick exposed him tonight, he was abysmal. 

[LabattBlue]

In the biggest game of the season, his poor instincts in the running game were front and center. 👎

[FireChans]

Break out the Edmunds report when they allowed the game winning TD.

[wppete]

Better hope to sweet baby Jesus we don’t pick up his option. He needs to go away. 

[Billy Zabka]

Just now, wppete said:

Better hope to sweet baby Jesus we don’t pick up his option. He needs to go away. 

Already picked up and guaranteed....

[Nextmanup]

7 minutes ago, Billy Zabka said:

Case closed on Edmunds.  You can have all the athleticism and size in the world but as a 3 down MLB if you can't diagnose a run play, get off blocks, or make impactful plays in the run game the you shouldn't be tying up big money on him. Bellichick exposed him tonight, he was abysmal. 

Simply based on where he plays on the field, we should be hearing his name all game long, every game.

 

And yet he often disappears, except for when you notice him getting manhandled out of the play.

 

Opposing blockers are able to to move him to where THEY want to go very easily.  I've been complaining about this from the beginning with him; he doesn't get better in this regard.