Alphas first stab at the 53 as we approach first preseason game

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, NickelCity said:

It does feel like Butler is going to be the odd man out at DT

Yeah it seems it may be the most likely scenario. I agree.

[freddyjj]

Ok my take on the bottom of roster changes:

1.  The backup 1 DT is currently not on roster.  Don't see Butler or Horrible Harry making it.  Do see OBD keeping 4 eventually with Star, Ed and the Iron Giant (Zimmer) as 3 of the 4.  A veteran pickup off waivers or a trade here is likely.
2.  CB2 will go to Levi but OBD has to be concerned about depth at outside CB.  Can see another outsider being brought in.  6 CBs will make team with Tre, Levi, Taron, Siran as only 4 assured so far. 
3.  The OL will be another revolving door at cut down time as Lamp, Hart and Douglas may bring trade offers for 5th-7th rd picks.  Believe Bills will keep 9 and PS Doyle.
4.  LB will be only 5 at cut down as extra spot will go to DE, WR or TE/FB.
5.  Taiwan Jones, DE Johnson and Matekevich make squad as pure STers

Edited August 11, 2021 by freddyjj

[Doc]

6 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I think @Alphadawg7 has a great point about Gilliam (FB) as an emergency TE. 
 

What does a 3rd TE offer you on your active roster? If they don’t play special teams, I’d rather them try to sneak a guy like Sweeney onto the PS and then have the option to promote him as needed given the current CoVID rules for PS elevations. 

Historically, they’ve carried 3 RBs and 1 FB, or 4 in total. 
 

Think back to Pat DiMarco and his ST contributions. I don’t see a way they carry, 4RBs AND a FB unless they really only have 2 TEs on the roster. 

 

They had Knox, Kroft and Smith at TE and Gilliam at FB on the opening day roster last year.  They also had 4 RBs (including Jones, who was primarily just a gunner).  Maybe they play with the numbers, I don't know, but I can see them keeping the same numbers.

[Patrick Duffy]

20 minutes ago, Doc said:

but I can see them keeping the same numbers

Maybe.....but do you think the 2 extra games could change things a little bit? I think they keep 4 RBs and maybe extra on OL maybe.

Edited August 11, 2021 by Sheneneh Jenkins

[Doc]

5 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Maybe.....but do you think the 2 extra games could change things a little bit? I think they keep 4 RBs and maybe extra on OL maybe.

 

No idea.  I think they should have expanded rosters with the move to 17 games.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Ok my take on the bottom of roster changes:

1.  The backup 1 DT is currently not on roster.  Don't see Butler or Horrible Harry making it.  Do see OBD keeping 4 eventually with Star, Ed and the Iron Giant (Zimmer) as 3 of the 4.  A veteran pickup off waivers or a trade here is likely.
2.  CB2 will go to Levi but OBD has to be concerned about depth at outside CB.  Can see another outsider being brought in.  6 CBs will make team with Tre, Levi, Taron, Siran as only 4 assured so far. 
3.  The OL will be another revolving door at cut down time as Lamp, Hart and Douglas may bring trade offers for 5th-7th rd picks.  Believe Bills will keep 9 and PS Doyle.
4.  LB will be only 5 at cut down as extra spot will go to DE, WR or TE/FB.
5.  Taiwan Jones, DE Johnson and Matekevich make squad as pure STers

 

I would love for us to be able to pick up a better 1TDT off waivers or in trade, but I don't see it happening.  My $0.02 Butler probably gets cut; being out with a concussion isn't helping his chances.  Then again, Harry may get cut again.

 

To your point 5, please bear in mind that while he's a core ST'er, Matekevich has shown himself capable as a backup LB when he got the call.  I thought he had played himself ahead of Dodson on the roster by the end of last season - looked that way in the Dolphins game.  And if you don't believe that (and don't believe the Bills believe that) then we are CERTAINLY not going with 5 LB.  Only way is if we think the ST guys (Dirty Red and Andre Smith) can both back up capably AND play ST, and even then...LB seem to get dinged a lot.

 

 

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

They had Knox, Kroft and Smith at TE and Gilliam at FB on the opening day roster last year.  They also had 4 RBs (including Jones, who was primarily just a gunner).  Maybe they play with the numbers, I don't know, but I can see them keeping the same numbers.

 

I was thinking about it and I think Smith saw action primarily as an extra OLman.   I think just keeping an extra OLman instead is a possibility.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I agree with this personally, but the Bills seem to be 100% committed to Taiwan Jones. He is going to be on the roster and active every game day, even though he offers no positional flexibility or offensive depth. 

 

I definitely hear you on that, and understand the reasoning.  I just think this is the year tough cuts for them have to be done and Taiwan isn't going to make it.  I get though he is a ST ace for them, so I wont rule it out.  I just dont know who they cut to keep him.  This roster is deep right now 

18 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

Taiwan Jones and Daryl Johnson being released? That's really an assault to our Special Teams. It's all the rage for fans to release Taiwan because he doesn't offer much beyond Special Teams. But they knew that when they re-signed him. They talk him up as "maybe the best gunner in the NFL". I guarantee you, he will be on this roster. Whether fans like it or not.

 

Its certainly possible, but like I said in another reply, I just don't who we cut/trade to keep him.  For right now, I just don't know where to fit him in.  Again though, this roster is prior to preseason play, so maybe once the games get going some cut worthy players will reveal themselves and make it easier to find spots for guys like Taiwan, Daryl, Hodgins, and Sweeney.  

[Alphadawg7]

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't think they will keep 11 on the Dline. Think one of those 11 ultimately will go. 

 

Yeah, certainly possible.  I think if we dont keep 11, then the most likely candidates may be Butler or Addison (or both).  But they seem to really like both too, so hard to say.  But both of them would be guys he can get trade value for most likely. 

[Alphadawg7]

 

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In Alpha's scenario presumably Jake Kumerow becomes the starting gunner in place of Taiwan Jones. Who replaces Johnson's snaps is trickier but all 3 of his backup linebackers are good teams players. 

 

I just don't see 11 on the dline. I expect the extra spot either goes to Taiwan Jones or if they are happy with Kumerow as a gunner it goes to Sweeney as a 3rd tight end. 

 

Also quite possible, I even had a hard time keeping Sweeney off the roster as I think they do like him quite a lot and are going to try and keep him if they can.  But with all the emphasis on DL and pressure to get to Mahomes, I had a harder time shrinking down the DL. 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Patrick Duffy]

22 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, certainly possible.  I think if we dont keep 11, then the most likely candidates may be Butler or Addison (or both).  But they seem to really like both too, so hard to say.  But both of them would be guys he can get trade value for most likely. 

I don't think it would be much value. I guess at best maybe a 6th, 5th would be surprising imo. Although Beane is very good and can do things you'd normally think can't be done (hence Tyrod trade). Although I guess even a late pick like that would be considered value. imo I think Addison could maybe be worth more than Butler?

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Personally, I fully believe Beane may bring in another TE

They say Ertz will appear at any moment. Was reported within 48 hrs he'd be a Bill ...Lol

Edited August 11, 2021 by Sheneneh Jenkins

[SoCal Deek]

There’s a reason the Bills went with two DEs at the top of the draft…a veteran is going to have to go. Someone has to, and I doubt they’re cutting their first round draft pick just weeks after picking him! 

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

There’s a reason the Bills went with two DEs at the top of the draft…a veteran is going to have to go. Someone has to, and I doubt they’re cutting their first round draft pick just weeks after picking him! 

If you're saying a DE has to go, who you think would be most likely to go if this is what happens? Not Espensa, Hughes I doubt..Obada is impressing so he would be a surprise. After D. Johnson there's a couple left I think? Is that the veteran you talking about?

[wppete]

D be very happy with that 53. Just hope we get Daryl Johnson on the practice roster somehow. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

If you're saying a DE has to go, who you think would be most likely to go if this is what happens? Not Espensa, Hughes I doubt..Obada is impressing so he would be a surprise. After D. Johnson there's a couple left I think? Is that the veteran you talking about?

I’m just saying a veteran is going for sure. And it won’t be Epenesa and probably not Obada based on what I’m reading about camp. 

Look at the original posted depth chart. One of those veterans is going.

[Patrick Duffy]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

I’m just saying a veteran is going for sure. And it won’t be Epenesa and probably not Obada based on what I’m reading about camp. 

That would leave 2 players left that's listed as DE if I'm not mistaken. And they probably would have a tough time making it anyway.

[ndirish1978]

Pretty surprised and a little disappointed to see Butler listed as 2nd string 1 tech DT with Harry 3rd on the official depth chart

[SoCal Deek]

The other thread that just came up lists the team as THREE DEEP at both DE. Once again, we’ll see, but I doubt it.

[Alphadawg7]

56 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

I don't think it would be much value. I guess at best maybe a 6th, 5th would be surprising imo. Although Beane is very good and can do things you'd normally think can't be done (hence Tyrod trade). Although I guess even a late pick like that would be considered value. imo I think Addison could maybe be worth more than Butler?

They say Ertz will appear at any moment. Was reported within 48 hrs he'd be a Bill ...Lol

 

Yeah, I wouldn't expect much more value than that either, but picks are better than just cuts, and Beane always seems to get more value for people than we think, or value in situations when we didn't think there was any value.  

20 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The other thread that just came up lists the team as THREE DEEP at both DE. Once again, we’ll see, but I doubt it.

 

I mean 3 of our DE's have 1 year or less playing experience.  So how many we keep is going to come down to how ready they feel they are to contribute this year.  AJE obviously will play a lot, but both Rosseau and Boogie are still big question marks on what they feel they are capable of handling.  

 

If at least one of our 2 rookie DE's shines and gives the staff confidence they can be regular(s) in our DE rotation, then it will definitely increase the chances we keep less than 6.  

[Alphadawg7]

Well this is good news, and definitely a differing perspective than some of the journalists have been saying.  McD giving Knox a vote of confidence is a good thing.  Impression I got from a lot of the reporters recaps is that he was struggling with consistency.

 

Wonder if this is just McD keeping his confidence high, or maybe (and more likely) its just a more accurate accounting for his camp than maybe over critical journalists can have.  I for one am pulling for Knox, and reading this from McD is encouraging.  In fact, I am going to adjust my predicted 53 back from Hollister to Knox after seeing McD's confidence in him.  Mainly because from what I have gathered over his time here is that McD pretty much means what he says, so I am going to trust this more than journalist reports through camp.  

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/08/11/sean-mcdermott-dawson-knox-really-good-training-camp-buffalo-bills/

[The Dean]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Last year, Singletary, Moss, Yates, Taiwan Jones.  That's 4.  Plus Gilliam, if you want to consider him a FB

 

 

RB is a high injury position whose players take a lot of wear and tear.

I don't see them carrying less than they carried last season.

 

Yeldon?

 

Alpha excellent effort. I agre with most (as they are fairly obviously). I also think, as others have pointed out, the numbers are a bit skewed to the D. I also think it is quite unlikely that both ST standouts will get cut. Perhaps if a couple players are realling killing it at ST it's possible. Still a really good attempt at this point dealing with the available info.

 

What do you guys think of today's depth chart?  Is Harrison really on the bubble, or could this be a motivational move?

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, The Dean said:

 

Yeldon?

 

Alpha excellent effort. I agre with most (as they are fairly obviously). I also think, as others have pointed out, the numbers are a bit skewed to the D. I also think it is quite unlikely that both ST standouts will get cut. Perhaps if a couple players are realling killing it at ST it's possible. Still a really good attempt at this point dealing with the available info.

 

What do you guys think of today's depth chart?  Is Harrison really on the bubble, or could this be a motivational move?

 

Well Harrison would also open up a roster spot to keep one of those ST aces as well.  So honestly, I think looking at the roster right now, the depth chart, etc, to make numbers balance more else where, cutting or trading a DT (I had them potentially keeping 5) does make some sense.  

 

The more I think about it and read others comments here, I am starting to re-think the DT depth chart and how many we keep, and think its more likely we keep 1 less DT than I originally posted.   

 

So yeah, I do believe he is one of the guys who is the bubble conversation.  Its a numbers game, and there are only a couple areas where we can logically make cuts, and DT is certainly one of those areas.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

43 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Well this is good news, and definitely a differing perspective than some of the journalists have been saying.  McD giving Knox a vote of confidence is a good thing.  Impression I got from a lot of the reporters recaps is that he was struggling with consistency.

 

Wonder if this is just McD keeping his confidence high, or maybe (and more likely) its just a more accurate accounting for his camp than maybe over critical journalists can have.  I for one am pulling for Knox, and reading this from McD is encouraging.  In fact, I am going to adjust my predicted 53 back from Hollister to Knox after seeing McD's confidence in him.  Mainly because from what I have gathered over his time here is that McD pretty much means what he says, so I am going to trust this more than journalist reports through camp.  

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/08/11/sean-mcdermott-dawson-knox-really-good-training-camp-buffalo-bills/

 

I think what the reporters see is catches and drops (if any).

 

I think what McDermott and the coaches see is more every play - was he expected to block?  did he pick up the right guy?  was he supposed to run a route?  he may not have been targeted, but did he get a clean release, run a crisp route, and gain separation?

 

The coaches are looking at every play, and the reporters are only looking at the highlights.

 

The other thing is Hollister has missed a bunch of time with the back injury, so he has ground to make up.

[GunnerBill]

I think cut Phillips, Doyle, Lewis and Adams add in Jones, Dodson, Sweeney and Hart and this is pretty much the 53 I'd guess at this stage.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

29 minutes ago, The Dean said:

 

Yeldon?

 

Alpha excellent effort. I agre with most (as they are fairly obviously). I also think, as others have pointed out, the numbers are a bit skewed to the D. I also think it is quite unlikely that both ST standouts will get cut. Perhaps if a couple players are realling killing it at ST it's possible. Still a really good attempt at this point dealing with the available info.

 

What do you guys think of today's depth chart?  Is Harrison really on the bubble, or could this be a motivational move?

 

Yeah, Thanks, great catch, I'll fix it.

 

I think it's a definite "shot across the bows" for Phillips.  I think it's going to be 4 guys kept, and Phillips is being told "right now, you're behind a guy who is on the sidelines with concussion".  I don't think it's definite at this point - I don't believe the Bills will make a move until they're coming out of camp because if someone gets injured then everything changes.  But yeah, it's a warning.

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

I think cut Phillips, Doyle, Lewis and Adams add in Jones, Dodson, Sweeney and Hart and this is pretty much the 53 I'd guess at this stage.

 

Anything is possible but I'd be surprised if the Bills cut a 5th round rookie. The fact that they took Doyle right after drafting Brown tells me they saw something in him they really liked. I'm pretty sure I heard he was getting some 1st team reps at LT at a recent practice.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Anything is possible but I'd be surprised if the Bills cut a 5th round rookie. The fact that they took Doyle right after drafting Brown tells me they saw something in him they really liked. I'm pretty sure I heard he was getting some 1st team reps at LT at a recent practice.

 

More likely than cut him would be he develops some nagging injury and winds up on IR to start the season.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Anything is possible but I'd be surprised if the Bills cut a 5th round rookie. The fact that they took Doyle right after drafting Brown tells me they saw something in him they really liked. I'm pretty sure I heard he was getting some 1st team reps at LT at a recent practice.

 

I just don't think their two backup tackles being rooks is very McBeane. Doesn't fit their MO at all. I expect them to find a Vosean Joseph / Isaiah Hodgins style injury for Doyle that requires IR after the 2nd or 3rd pre-season game.

Edited August 11, 2021 by GunnerBill

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just don't think their two backup tackles being rooks is very McBeane. Doesn't fit their MO at all. I expect them to find a Vosean Joseph / Isaiah Hodgins style injury for Doyle that requires IR after the 2nd or 3rd pre-season game.

 

Normally I'd agree but they're the ones that drafted him... I can't imagine they brought him in just to compete with Spencer Brown. If they want to fake an injury I suppose that would work.

[Patrick Duffy]

56 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Well this is good news, and definitely a differing perspective than some of the journalists have been saying.  McD giving Knox a vote of confidence is a good thing.  Impression I got from a lot of the reporters recaps is that he was struggling with consistency.

 

Wonder if this is just McD keeping his confidence high, or maybe (and more likely) its just a more accurate accounting for his camp than maybe over critical journalists can have.  I for one am pulling for Knox, and reading this from McD is encouraging.  In fact, I am going to adjust my predicted 53 back from Hollister to Knox after seeing McD's confidence in him.  Mainly because from what I have gathered over his time here is that McD pretty much means what he says, so I am going to trust this more than journalist reports through camp.  

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/08/11/sean-mcdermott-dawson-knox-really-good-training-camp-buffalo-bills/

Yeah reports were he was not doing so hot. There was a video posted where he made a very good catch in traffic in the EZ few days ago. I don't know, some reporters can be those type that see a player drop one pass and then say that player is "having a bad camp". 

 

In any event this is good to hear about Knox. We all know what he struggles with from seeing him anyways. Hopefully less drops and the always fun to watch running over defenders.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Normally I'd agree but they're the ones that drafted him... I can't imagine they brought him in just to compete with Spencer Brown. If they want to fake an injury I suppose that would work.

 

I think they see both of them in their long term plans but the Bills draft the best player on their board then work out the logjams later. They might go with two rooks as backups it just doesn't feel very them. 

[Patrick Duffy]

21 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think what the reporters see is catches and drops (if any).

 

I think what McDermott and the coaches see is more every play - was he expected to block?  did he pick up the right guy?  was he supposed to run a route?  he may not have been targeted, but did he get a clean release, run a crisp route, and gain separation?

 

The coaches are looking at every play, and the reporters are only looking at the highlights.

 

The other thing is Hollister has missed a bunch of time with the back injury, so he has ground to make up.

Yup, you beat me to it, I just said very similar thing. Some of the reporters may see one dropped pass and call it "having a bad camp".

[Patrick Duffy]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think cut Phillips, Doyle, Lewis and Adams add in Jones, Dodson, Sweeney and Hart and this is pretty much the 53 I'd guess at this stage.

I don't know. Dodson is pretty solid. I recall he made some impressive plays last season. Anyway, we all just guessing and it will all depend how things go. It will be interesting to see how it plays out for those players on that end of the roster. Will be a few tough decisions I'm sure.

[ganesh]

14 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

They are in win now mode, IMO, and that means packing the 53 with guys who can play. 

Well put.   

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

I don't know. Dodson is pretty solid. I recall he made some impressive plays last season. Anyway, we all just guessing and it will all depend how things go. It will be interesting to see how it plays out for those players on that end of the roster. Will be a few tough decisions I'm sure.

 

That is why I am saying add him in to the 53....

[Patrick Duffy]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is why I am saying add him in to the 53....

Oh ok, I misread....Thought you meant he wouldn't make it. Sorry.

[dollars 2 donuts]

@Alphadawg7 I am worried, Buddy, that not being able to evaluate the starters who are sitting tomorrow might adversely influence your review of who makes the team.

 

I don’t envy you in the challenge of maintaining this thread.

 

😂😉

Edited August 12, 2021 by dollars 2 donuts

[auburnbillsbacker]

Nice roster!  Isn't Jones a lock at RB as a special teams standout?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 hours ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Yeah reports were he was not doing so hot. There was a video posted where he made a very good catch in traffic in the EZ few days ago. I don't know, some reporters can be those type that see a player drop one pass and then say that player is "having a bad camp". 

 

In any event this is good to hear about Knox. We all know what he struggles with from seeing him anyways. Hopefully less drops and the always fun to watch running over defenders.

 

The reports I saw were that Knox has been having a good and consistent camp and the drop he had the other day was uncharacteristic.  People who I think normally do a reasonably centered job of reporting like Sal Capaccio etc.

[Process]

No way we keep 11 d lineman. Either Phillips or Zimmer won't make it IMO.

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The reports I saw were that Knox has been having a good and consistent camp and the drop he had the other day was uncharacteristic.  People who I think normally do a reasonably centered job of reporting like Sal Capaccio etc.

That's the thing, conflicting reports.....I don't remember who said exactly, but it was in one of the TC threads that said he was struggling, or it may have meant for that particular day maybe? I'm not quite sure, but remember reading it.

 

Then a different one says otherwise. Anyways, doesn't really matter much in regards to Knox since it's clear what he struggles with. Whatever the case hopefully he has worked on it and improves.