Fred Warner's New Deal - Is This Going To Be What Edmunds Is After?

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Edmunds only does one of those listed skills well. He covers ground. He plays the run poorly at best and his ability to diagnose plays quickly seems quite lacking. I have no idea what memory has to do with playing MLB.  

I hope he plays to an All-pro level this year.  Nothing would make me happier.  But the tape shows he played poorly last year.  None of us know if that was injury related or not.  He had no surgery in the off-season so it would be easy to surmise that whatever the injury was it healed at some point.  It may have hampered him all season long.  We will never know.  

He appears to be a guy that has all the tools to be a truly great player.  There are many guys that are physically gifted that never reach their potential.  I'm going into 2021 with an open mind when evaluating his play.  

 

 

Oh, nonsense.

 

It is useful having you here spewing this stuff.

 

It shows how how nutty some people get on Tremaine.

 

The tape doesn't "show he played poorly last year." That's utter nonsense. The Bills were almost universally expected to exercise his fifth-year option for around $12.7M. The reason this expectation was so very widespread was simply that the tape shows just the opposite of that. It shows a guy who is playing very well. Not elite. But playing very well after the injury stopped holding him back so much the first seven weeks or so.

 

It's just as widespread an opinion (again, simply because it's sensible) that with the way he's played so far, in no way does he deserve the kind of contract discussed in the OP. He'd need to be a top three or four LB to deserve that kind of money, and he's not there yet, nor is it sure that he ever will get there.

Edited July 22, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, appoo said:

 

And this is what I mean about my 2nd paragraph. He's been a pro-bowler, he's pretty highly rated by NFL evaluators, his peers seem to respect him, but Bills fans largely seem to think he's not very good.

We watch the games too.  No Bills fan thinks he deserved a ProBowl nod last year. 

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

We watch the games too.  No Bills fan thinks he deserved a ProBowl nod last year. 

 

2/3 of the NFL Pro Bowl vote are Players and Coaches.  They watch the film, they play against him.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

28 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Oh, nonsense.

 

It is useful having you here spewing this stuff.

 

It shows how how nutty some people get on Tremaine.

 

The tape doesn't "show he played poorly last year." That's utter nonsense. The Bills were almost universally expected to exercise his fifth-year option for around $12.7M. The reason this expectation was so very widespread was simply that the tape shows just the opposite of that. It shows a guy who is playing very well. Not elite. But playing very well after the injury stopped holding him back so much the first seven weeks or so.

 

It's just as widespread an opinion (again, simply because it's sensible) that with the way he's played so far, in no way does he deserve the kind of contract discussed in the OP. He'd need to be a top three or four LB to deserve that kind of money, and he's not there yet, nor is it sure that he ever will get there.

Picking up his option is about keeping control of the player and giving the team more time to see if he blossoms into the top 4 player we all want him to be.  Of course he has played well enough to start.  And he is young enough and shown enough promise (especially the second half of 2019) to want to pick up his option.  I advocated for picking up his option.  Seemed like an easy decision.  

However, if you think it is nonsense for me saying his run defense is poor then you simply have not watched the games.  

 

[Haze_21]

Warner is far better.

 

Edmunds strikes me as someone who will be tremendously overpaid hopefully by someone else. He has shown flashes of being a solid player and maybe injury held him back last year but Leonard and Warner are building blocks you can count on to make plays.

[ColoradoBills]

Fact is Edmunds is playing for the Bills this year for $4M.  He is most likely playing next year for $12.7M.

I'm pretty sure that Beane will not even talk about an Edmunds contract until after Josh Allen's contract is sealed.

 

I'm hoping for a decent Edmunds improvement this year and I will only think about this subject halfway through NEXT season.

IMO.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, appoo said:

 

Think Devin White was essential to the Bucs beating the Chief. The pass rush was tremendous, but White was ridiculously good that game

 

 

Yep.   Having an outstanding one on a cheap contract will not prevent you from winning a SB.    That's about all it really tells you in the grand scheme though.   

[billsfan89]

19 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Are the Bills SB contenders without Edmunds?

 

If they find a capable replacement either cheaper in free agency or they sink a high draft choice into the position they will be fine without Eduomnds long term. For now Edumonds is here and he is a positive part of the defense. I do feel like LB play is a critical part of the defense (and in coverage becoming a bigger part of modern NFL defenses) and I do like what Edumonds brings to the defense but he might not be destined for the team longer term. 

[appoo]

I think my primary point on this is how much McDermott values that position in his defense. His entire system on having a backer with Endmunds athletic ability, mental ability and skill set. 
 

then take that and look at the cost of finding a replacement. That only guy in this past draft that could be a an athletic replacement would have been Micah Parsons. 
 

not at all dismissing folks who are critical of Tremaine’s play, but you need to understand how much value McDermott has in him.

 

he’s gonna get paid by the bills because of that 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

ESPN article below from today seems to agree at least somewhat with what many of us have posted.  That said, I have no idea how they draw the conclusion it was a lack of chemistry with Klein. What does that have to do with hesitancy to initiate contact? But maybe there is something there that coaches have said to the reporter. 

At this point his age, potential, and second half of 2019 warrant picking up the option and the hope he becomes the top 5 LB we all want him to be.  

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/36163/tremaine-edmunds-best-football-ahead-of-him-as-extension-approaches

 

Statistically, Edmunds turned in a solid 2020 season with 119 tackles, including 4 for a loss in 15 games -- but something seemed off. He missed Buffalo's Week 2 win at the Miami Dolphins with a shoulder injury before returning to play in his team's remaining 14 games, but he seemed slow to react on certain plays or hesitant to initiate contact.

Both critiques can be attributed to Edmunds' lack of chemistry with A.J. Klein, who filled in for usual starting linebacker Matt Milano for six games while the latter was injured, and his shoulder keeping him from playing at 100%.

But the two-time Pro Bowler was also better than the Internet might lead one to believe. Edmunds' 4.91-second average time to tackle ranked 22nd among qualified linebackers (at least 700 snaps played), and his 0.86 second get-off ranked ninth. Translation: Despite the chemistry issues and injury woes, Edmunds was processing the game quickly.

[RichRiderBills]

This is why i hate tbe 49ers...they have really made some irresponsible contract calls, many of which have come back to bite them. ( Kwon for sure)Fred is a solid player but no LB is worth this. 

Edited July 22, 2021 by RichRiderBills

[Victory Formation]

If he’s willing to take $11M-$12M, I’d say he’s worth it, but anything more than that gives me cause for concern. 
 

Of course one could argue that our DL has been piss poor since he’s been here, but his production isn’t in line with other elite players. Sure, he’s good, but not very good, let alone elite. He has everything you’d want in a LB physically, but he lacks instincts.

MLB is a highly disvalued position. If we see more splash plays out of Edmunds in pass defense I may change my mind, because generally that’s what you want these days in a LB.

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

We watch the games too.  No Bills fan thinks he deserved a ProBowl nod last year. 

 

I am so glad you made the effort to survey them all.   Are you a telemarketer pollster in real life? 

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

FWIW...........the people who downplay Tyrod Taylor for just being an "alternate" don't realize that the Pro Bowl that year was not an AFC/NFC vote........it was an ALL NFL team..

 

Tyrod was technically an alternate but he was actually one of only 2 AFC QB's selected...........6 of the 8 selected were NFC QB's.

 

His season was very much like Edmunds' last year.........he made it because the conference didn't have a lot of good players at his position.

 

 

 

No, you're leaving out an awful lot there about Tyrod's Pro Bowl game. Brady and Roethlisberger were voted in and declined. Dalton was the first alternate and he couldn't play. Philip Rivers said no thanks. Luck  was injured and ineligible. Alex Smith was rumored to have been asked under the table to play but refused. And then there were the NFC guys.

 

That group of Pro Bowl QBs was the weakest in history:  Eli Manning (in a year when his QB rating was 86.0, a year when he tied for 4th-highest in INTS with 16, one per game) Derek Carr, Tyrod, Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and Teddy Bridgewater. Probably one of the top 6 or 7 QBs that year, in Russ Wilson.

 

Wretched.

 

13 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

We watch the games too.  No Bills fan thinks he deserved a ProBowl nod last year. 

 

 

Right, none, except most.

 

That Pro Bowl wasn't controversial except in your small group of Bills fans watchers.

 

 

12 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Picking up his option is about keeping control of the player and giving the team more time to see if he blossoms into the top 4 player we all want him to be.  Of course he has played well enough to start.  And he is young enough and shown enough promise (especially the second half of 2019) to want to pick up his option.  I advocated for picking up his option.  Seemed like an easy decision.  

However, if you think it is nonsense for me saying his run defense is poor then you simply have not watched the games.  

 

 

 

Again, nonsense. Yes, it's about control of the player. But if he was the player you absurdly claim he is, nobody would be interested in controlling him.

 

He's played well enough to make the Pro Bowl, to make nearly every list of top ten LBs out there.

 

And no, it doesn't mean I didn't watch the games, it means that I, like nearly all of the football-watching world, disagree with you and your ridiculous biases.

 

Edited July 23, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 7/22/2021 at 7:22 AM, boater said:

The elephant in the room is the Josh Allen extension. No way we can do both Allen and Edmunds. Pick who you want to keep, pay the man and politely show the other one out the door.

 

I know who I would pick.

 

 

Way.

 

Both are controlled through 2022. And in 2023 we have at present $100M in remaining cap space according to Spotrac.

 

They could certainly keep both if that's what they decide to do, which seems likely though not definite at this point.

Edited July 23, 2021 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

That Pro Bowl wasn't controversial except in your small group of Bills fans watchers.

 

 

It wasn't controversial but it was at least in part a result of factors beyond Tremaine's performance. Hightower who made it the year before opted out, Devin Bush who would have been a shoe in the way he was playing got hurt and the inside linebacker depth in the AFC sucks. Playing the way Tremaine played last year he wouldn't have been in the top half dozen choices in the NFC. But the way the pro bowl is set up means sometimes a guy gets in on one side who wouldn't have a prayer on the other. He played much more at what I'd consider a "pro bowl level" in 2019 when he got in as an alternate.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It wasn't controversial but it was at least in part a result of factors beyond Tremaine's performance. Hightower who made it the year before opted out, Devin Bush who would have been a shoe in the way he was playing got hurt and the inside linebacker depth in the AFC sucks. Playing the way Tremaine played last year he wouldn't have been in the top half dozen choices in the NFC. But the way the pro bowl is set up means sometimes a guy gets in on one side who wouldn't have a prayer on the other. He played much more at what I'd consider a "pro bowl level" in 2019 when he got in as an alternate.

 

 

Well, sure, every Pro Bowl selection, every ranking of any type, is at least in part a result of such factors.

 

Tremaine's injured shoulder, his decision to play through it because even injured they didn't have anyone who could play as well healthy as Tremaine injured, Star's opting out, etc. were some more factors affecting how he ranked, as did the ones you mentioned.

 

And I guess we'll have to disagree about the NFC. You say that there are six better guys over there as if it's a fact, and it's not, it's your opinion. I think there are three or four guys over there who are simply playing better than Tremaine (nearly all older than him, by the way), but after that it gets very foggy. After his shoulder got healthy again, he looked like he was playing at much the same level last year as he'd been in 2019, but the defensive scheme wasn't working around him nearly as well as it had been when Star had been shielding him on early downs and Milano and he were both healthy and playing extremely well off each other, and the inability to replace Shaq Lawson last year hurt more than most seem to see.

 

I disagree with your opinion about Devin Bush as well. He's a really good young player, improving and looks to be a really promising kid. Without question the healthy Bush played better than the injured Edmunds, but once Edmunds was healthy, I don't think it would've been a shoo-in by any means. And Bush was in a much better situation on that Steelers D than Edwards.

 

 

 

And it's worth remembering that I was responding to the wacky assertions that "No Bills fan thinks he deserved a ProBowl nod last year," and that "the tape shows he played poorly last year."

 

Edited July 23, 2021 by Thurman#1

[SydneyBillsFan]

I am not holding my breath on Edmunds becoming anything beyond what we have already seen - serviceable, but never elite - or even close to it. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

You say that there are six better guys over there as if it's a fact, and it's not, it's your opinion.

 

We have done this before but you can take it as read that what I say is my opinion. It is a discussion board I don't need people to caveat everything to understand it is their opinion. When I am sharing something that is a fact I make it very clear that is the case.

 

As for the substantive matter about which we have a difference of opinion I think it is worth reflecting on the all pro voting at linebacker for last season which certainly is more in line with how I saw it. 

 

1. Fred Warner, San Francisco, 39 votes - NFC

2. Bobby Wagner, Seattle, 35 - NFC

3. Darius Leonard, Indianapolis, 18 - AFC

4. Devin White, Tampa Bay, 16 - NFC

5. Demario Davis, New Orleans, 14 - NFC

6. Lavonte David, Tampa Bay, 10 - NFC

7. Roquan Smith, Chicago, 10 - NFC

8. Eric Kendricks, Minnesota, 3 - NFC

9. Blake Martinez, New York Giants, 2 - NFC

10. Myles Jack, Jacksonville, 1 - AFC

11. Zach Cunningham, Houston 1 - AFC

12. Deion Jones, Atlanta, 1 - NFC

 

50 voters, 3 votes each, maximum number possible 150. 

 

12 guys got votes. 9 of them were in the NFC and of the 150 votes possible the NFC won 129-21. Now of course the AP voters are also only expressing an opinion too, but I think it would be the overwhelming consensus among seasoned NFL watchers that the NFC is considerably stronger in those inside linebacker spots (whether you are talking 4-3 or 3-4) than the AFC right now. 

 

It just so happens the top half dozen I was thinking of in the NFC are precisely the guys who came top 7 in the voting (excluding Leonard obviously). 

Edited July 23, 2021 by GunnerBill

[BADOLBILZ]

53 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We have done this before but you can take it as read that what I say is my opinion. It is a discussion board I don't need people to caveat everything to understand it is their opinion. When I am sharing something that is a fact I make it very clear that is the case.

 

As for the substantive matter about which we have a difference of opinion I think it is worth reflecting on the all pro voting at linebacker for last season which certainly is more in line with how I saw it. 

 

1. Fred Warner, San Francisco, 39 votes - NFC

2. Bobby Wagner, Seattle, 35 - NFC

3. Darius Leonard, Indianapolis, 18 - AFC

4. Devin White, Tampa Bay, 16 - NFC

5. Demario Davis, New Orleans, 14 - NFC

6. Lavonte David, Tampa Bay, 10 - NFC

7. Roquan Smith, Chicago, 10 - NFC

8. Eric Kendricks, Minnesota, 3 - NFC

9. Blake Martinez, New York Giants, 2 - NFC

10. Myles Jack, Jacksonville, 1 - AFC

11. Zach Cunningham, Houston 1 - AFC

12. Deion Jones, Atlanta, 1 - NFC

 

50 voters, 3 votes each, maximum number possible 150. 

 

12 guys got votes. 9 of them were in the NFC and of the 150 votes possible the NFC won 129-21. Now of course the AP voters are also only expressing an opinion too, but I think it would be the overwhelming consensus among seasoned NFL watchers that the NFC is considerably stronger in those inside linebacker spots (whether you are talking 4-3 or 3-4) than the AFC right now. 

 

It just so happens the top half dozen I was thinking of in the NFC are precisely the guys who came top 7 in the voting (excluding Leonard obviously). 

 

 

The disparity in quality of ILB/MLB players between the AFC and NFC is huge.

 

I understand why casual observers don't understand this.............but this can happen at a devalued position and it can not be reflected by the play of the teams in those conferences.

 

Because defenses aren't built from the MLB outward anymore.     They are built around edge rushers and lock down CB's.   

 

If the Bills intend their D to be built around their MLB as so many Edmunds excuse makers claim........and Edmunds doesn't improve significantly.........they will continue to be a paper tiger defense.     

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The disparity in quality of ILB/MLB players between the AFC and NFC is huge.

 

I understand why casual observers don't understand this.............but this can happen at a devalued position and it can not be reflected by the play of the teams in those conferences.

 

Because defenses aren't built from the MLB outward anymore.     They are built around edge rushers and lock down CB's.   

 

If the Bills intend their D to be built around their MLB as so many Edmunds excuse makers claim........and Edmunds doesn't improve significantly.........they will continue to be a paper tiger defense.     

 

I agree. It can even happen at critical positions too - look at the Quarterback disparity currently - the AFC is stacked with young talented QBs and the NFC has 2 or 3 older guys hanging on. The difference of course being that disparity gets reflected eventually in wins and losses. Off the ball linebackers do not affect the bottom line in the same way. 

 

On the final point I do think McDermott's scheme does ask more of the MLB than a lot of others in the league so it is less devalued in Buffalo than elsewhere. Pete Carroll's Seattle's defense does too - which is why it has always made sense for them to pay Bobby Wagner. The issue is at the moment Tremaine Edmunds is no Bobby Wagner. The Bills need better play and more consistent play than they got out of Edmunds last year for certain. Otherwise they need to think about how they replace him because his play so far does not justify the sort of money Warner just got. 

[BarleyNY]

22 hours ago, thurst44 said:

My favorite is he "never makes a big play." He may not rack up stats (yet), but I've re-watched games and see so many examples. He sacked a guy in the end zone for a safety.

I also don't get the "lack of instincts" tag. He's captaining a lot of the defensive schemes, and led a top 3 D two years ago. Last year was ridiculous, so I'll give them a pass on the middle-of-the-league defense. Maybe when you think he's showing "bad instincts" he's actually doing what he's supposed to do?

That “never makes a play” straw man comment is just wrong.  Even those of us with concerns about Edmunds’ play talk about him making plays. The main criticism of him is that he’s inconsistent.  That’s generally attributed to below average instincts, which was a concern well covered in his draft profiles.  Great splash plays mixed with missed assignments.

 

But it did occur to me that he might be playing as coached, as you mention.  I just don’t think that’s the case though.  He’s too prone to do things like leave his assignment and overpursue, leaving RBs free to run through his gap.  I just can’t see coaches telling a player to take those chances.  He gets lost in coverage a fair bit too.  The caveat is that MLB is a very difficult position to play and few grade out all that well. But those players who do cost what Edmunds will.  And since you can get a more consistent, but less spectacular MLB for a much smaller contract, you can expect to find similar overall production for a lot less.

 

The Bills are definitely at the point where the cap dictates decisions between which players to pay.  That’s what it boils down to: Is Edmunds worth the very large contract it will cost to keep him after 2022?  If he can clean up the miscues while still making big plays, then he probably will be worth it.  If we get more of what we’ve seen so far, then probably not.  But some team will probably take the risk and give it to him.  I don’t want that to be Buffalo unless he takes that next step. 

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree. It can even happen at critical positions too - look at the Quarterback disparity currently - the AFC is stacked with young talented QBs and the NFC has 2 or 3 older guys hanging on. The difference of course being that disparity gets reflected eventually in wins and losses. Off the ball linebackers do not affect the bottom line in the same way. 

 

On the final point I do think McDermott's scheme does ask more of the MLB than a lot of others in the league so it is less devalued in Buffalo than elsewhere. Pete Carroll's Seattle's defense does too - which is why it has always made sense for them to pay Bobby Wagner. The issue is at the moment Tremaine Edmunds is no Bobby Wagner. The Bills need better play and more consistent play than they got out of Edmunds last year for certain. Otherwise they need to think about how they replace him because his play so far does not justify the sort of money Warner just got. 

 

 

Yeah Wagner is an interesting case in point as it relates to the Bills and their defense...........because the Seahawks went from being both the youngest team in the NFL and the SB champion in the same season..........to very flawed in just a couple years once they paid their defensive standouts.

 

As it so happened,  aside from Sherman,  the big names on that defense were off-ball LB and safeties........and once they paid those guys they couldn't afford to roll the DL like they once used to and the defense went from great to middling(and worse).    

 

They sacrificed on the lines on both sides of the ball to pay big names that,  in hindsight,  really needed to be supported by excellent edge/island and interior DL play to field a championship type defense.   That doesn't necessarily mean a "top 5" statistical defense.........but one that can support a high powered offense by rushing the passer or being great in coverage.   They put the frosting before the cake, IMO.

  

If the Bills win one SB like the Seahawks did.......then we could probably happily accept 5-7 years of Josh Allen trying to carry a flawed team to the WC or divisional round like what's been going on in Seattle..........but I think the lesson to be learned from the Seahawks is not to do what they did.     You shouldn't fall in love with off-ball LB and safeties and have them eating up huge amounts of cap space.

[GunnerBill]

29 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah Wagner is an interesting case in point as it relates to the Bills and their defense...........because the Seahawks went from being both the youngest team in the NFL and the SB champion in the same season..........to very flawed in just a couple years once they paid their defensive standouts.

 

As it so happened,  aside from Sherman,  the big names on that defense were off-ball LB and safeties........and once they paid those guys they couldn't afford to roll the DL like they once used to and the defense went from great to middling(and worse).    

 

They sacrificed on the lines on both sides of the ball to pay big names that,  in hindsight,  really needed to be supported by excellent edge/island and interior DL play to field a championship type defense.   That doesn't necessarily mean a "top 5" statistical defense.........but one that can support a high powered offense by rushing the passer or being great in coverage.   They put the frosting before the cake, IMO.

  

If the Bills win one SB like the Seahawks did.......then we could probably happily accept 5-7 years of Josh Allen trying to carry a flawed team to the WC or divisional round like what's been going on in Seattle..........but I think the lesson to be learned from the Seahawks is not to do what they did.     You shouldn't fall in love with off-ball LB and safeties and have them eating up huge amounts of cap space.

 

Yea I do agree that they had too much money tied up in lower priority positions - you could throw Lynch and for a period Jimmy Graham in there too (that Unger for Graham trade was the moment their dynasty hopes died IMO - one of the stupidest decisions I can remember). But I struggle to make a case that they should have moved on from Bobby Wagner. They were still paying Bennett and Avril decent money as their edge guys at the time he wasn't stopping them doing that. They probably should have chosen 1 of the safeties not both but for me the biggest issue in Seattle was their constant wasting of high draft picks. No team has a worse day 1 drafting record than Seattle in the past decade. It is literally the worst in the league. In fact in the last 5 drafts before 2021 they have made 10 selections in the first two rounds and of them only DK Metcalf has proven himself more than a replacement level player to this point. When you draft that poorly it is really, really difficult to stay competitive for Championships. Even when you have Russell Wilson. The Bills have to draft better than Seattle have. 

Edited July 23, 2021 by GunnerBill

[Starr Almighty]

Well PFF 👈🤣🤣🤣 hates Edmunds 

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/07/23/pro-football-focus-tremaine-edmunds-hype-linebacker-rankings-matt-milano/