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Beane's toughest draft yet. The conundrum; there aren't 30 players with a 1st round grade in this draft


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i look at draft picks like packs of baseball cards when i was a kid: they are exciting because they could contain some super special card, so the unknown part of it kinda increases the value.

 

i think, particularly this year and with this FO, these guys are looking at each player like a sniper.  bean clearly has total confidence in his scouts and coaches, and will do what he has to in order to get his guy.  i think we see that even moreso this year, where they trade up down and around and for the first 3 picks get exactly who they want, even at what looks like a goofy cost.  i'd rule nothing out at all, and i think draftnik 1st and 2nd round grades won't mean much.

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9 hours ago, BuffaloBillies said:

My unpopular opinion is... take the guy that helps us win now. If he's a 2nd round draft grade, so what! Best for us is what matters. 10 picks up or down, overvalued/undervalued.... BS. Get our guy and win. 

I am no draft expert at all, but in my mind a player who can be a difference maker for a team would be the definition of a "1st round grade", no?  I understand that people drafted after round 1 can be great players, but pre-draft, those with the "supposed" potential to help a team win now would be drafted first.  

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I am not a college guru like @GunnerBill or @NewEra but to me it doesn’t feel like there is any value at DE at 30 other than need. If a top 4 CB drops that low I think you run to the podium. 
 

Otherwise it is BPA. Reaching for a mediocre pass rusher at 30, when you already have a mediocre pass rush, is how franchises get behind the 8 ball long term. 

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This draft has plenty of talent in the first 2-3 rounds.  There are just so many question marks, due to COVID opt-outs, the shortened season, and incomplete medical checks.  It's a real mess.

 

Guys like Caleb Farley and Jaelen Phillips look like Top-10 guys on tape.  But they are huge medical red-flags.  Some teams may still be OK taking them early, while other teams may take them off their board completely if they can't get a clear report from the doctor. 

 

Usually I would be optimistic we could just sit-back like Ozzie Newsome and take whoever drops.  But the numbers game is just not in our favor this year, and it's hard to see a 1st-Round caliber talent fall all the way to #30.  There are only so many guys who can get pushed down.  Once you get past the first 15-20 players, there is a clear drop-off.  Then I don't see a lot of separation between #21 and the next 30 prospects.

 

If I'm Brandon Beane, my first instinct is to explore a trade into the early 20s.  But if the price is too high, then I'm doing everything in my power to move back.  Pickup a 2022 second rounder.  Get a veteran player tossed in.  Because the value of the guy you pick at #30 is going to be roughly the same as the guy you pick at #40.

 

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I hear you IM, but like BPA,  1st round grades are quite subjective,  every teams situation is driven by a different set of Needs. 
That and the pundits/mock drafters  are wrong the vast majority of the time, so what they project is of little value to a smart GM, this year Beane is gonna gut punch the league, and they won’t see it coming, it’s gonna be fun to watch it happen, jmo. 

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9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

There are never 30 players with first round grades. We hear this same thing every year, it's just that it hasn't been important to us because we haven't been drafting so far back in a long long time.

 

You hear two general variations on it over and over. First is the "There are 10 - 15 blue chip players" deal. Every year. Then there's the "there aren't (somewhere around 25 usually) first round guys" deal. Again, you hear it pretty much every year.

I’m fine with these idiots in the press saying there are only x number of “blue chip” prospects or even “this year there are only 20 guys with first round grades”, but they ALWAYS have less than 32 “first round grades”.  News flash: There are 32 picks in the first round half the time and 31 in years where the Pats got caught cheating again.  
 

This means over say a 10 year span there should be 315 “first round grades”.  My guess is if you add it all up there are usually about 250.   This makes no sense.  They should not be be called first round grades if that is the case.  Blue chip grades at 250 over 10 years?  Fine.  But the first round grades should add up to about 315.

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None of this matters, draft as many guys as you can and hope they develop.

 

Just because you have a 1st round grade doesn't mean you develop into a starter.  I used to be obsessed with the draft, now I just sit back and shrug.  You never ***** know, I was dead wrong about a lot of guys, dead right on a lot.  Biggest Bills miss was Allen, thought he had bust written all over him.

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12 hours ago, BuffaloBillies said:

My unpopular opinion is... take the guy that helps us win now. If he's a 2nd round draft grade, so what! Best for us is what matters. 10 picks up or down, overvalued/undervalued.... BS. Get our guy and win. 

Agree. They need an impact player that makes a difference in 2021.  It should be SuperBowl of bust mentality at One Bills Drive.  To me that is a RB or an edge in the first round.  A CB, C, and a 1-tech DT are needed for beyond 2021.  TE is the wild card here too.  Can Knox develop?  Is there another TE besides Pitts in this draft that is an upgrade over Knox? 

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2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

I hear you IM, but like BPA,  1st round grades are quite subjective,  every teams situation is driven by a different set of Needs. 
That and the pundits/mock drafters  are wrong the vast majority of the time, so what they project is of little value to a smart GM, this year Beane is gonna gut punch the league, and they won’t see it coming, it’s gonna be fun to watch it happen, jmo. 

 

I mean the numbers actually bear it out that there is a greater chance of success at the top of the draft. Drafting isn't an exact science and Beane might extract fantastic value at #30 from a guy that others have passed over but most of the guys the mockers have going high will be most of the guys that do go high and the hit rate on them when we look back in 5 years time will almost certainly be higher than the hit rate for guys taken 20-30. As for mocks having no value to Brandon Beane.... well the truth is he uses them. Whether they will do it this year sitting at #30 with so many variables in front I'm not sure but in the past they have run mock drafts among the scouting staff to do scenario planning for what might unfold. 

33 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

The follow-up question is what is the total grade distribution.  If you move back, are you getting a 3rd round talent in the 2nd?  Getting a 2nd round talent in the 3rd?  You need both pieces of info to make  decision.

 

It's a very good point. I go down to #57 on my big board with guys I have a 1st or 2nd round grade on. I don't have a ton of 3rds either but that is a bit sketchier because there will be some 3rd round players I have just not had time to get to. It is not the deepest draft class, a lot fewer guys declared than in recent years... there will be guys who go on day 2 this year who would normally be day 3 players. I'm pretty convinced of that. I don't think it is a year to just stack loads of picks in this draft. I expect a lot of teams trading down will be asking for 2022 capital.

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4 hours ago, TBBills said:

Actually this might be his easiest since 4 QBs will go early and a few RBs. He definitely has plenty of first round grade talent to choose from at 30.

 

It is funny to watch people on this forum think this since some of you fans have never seen the Bills draft this late.

To be fair, it has been so long that I'm not sure I remember watching the draft the last time the Bills picked this late. It may have been communicated via telegraph or smoke signals.

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3 hours ago, Mango said:

I am not a college guru like @GunnerBill or @NewEra but to me it doesn’t feel like there is any value at DE at 30 other than need. If a top 4 CB drops that low I think you run to the podium. 
 

Otherwise it is BPA. Reaching for a mediocre pass rusher at 30, when you already have a mediocre pass rush, is how franchises get behind the 8 ball long term. 

But what happens when the top 4 corners are gone before we pick...which will very likely be the case.  At that point, we’ll most likely be drafting a 2nd rd talent, regardless of position.  A 2nd rd defensive end might actually be the BPA @30.  Trading down would be ideal, but it takes two.  
 

I think we’ll be trading up to secure a 1st rd talent.  If we don’t trade up, I really hope that we trade down (unless someone falls into our laps).

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3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

But what happens when the top 4 corners are gone before we pick...which will very likely be the case.  At that point, we’ll most likely be drafting a 2nd rd talent, regardless of position.  A 2nd rd defensive end might actually be the BPA @30.  Trading down would be ideal, but it takes two.  
 

I think we’ll be trading up to secure a 1st rd talent.  If we don’t trade up, I really hope that we trade down (unless someone falls into our laps).

Normally I favor trade down to acquire more picks.  But that is not the right scenario now. The roster is loaded.  They only have 2 maybe 3 spots on the entire roster that are not settled.  This is the year to move up and get your star RB or pass rusher.  If one of the WRs falls, maybe that is a guy to target.  

If there are no willing partners to trade up, moving back a few spots and picking up a late third or early fourth may be wise.  Then you get 4 players from say 35 to 110 or so, and at slightly less cost.  Beane needs to use those late round picks as capital to move up or just give away for higher rounds next year.  With punter and kicker settled, there is almost zero chance a 5th round or later pick makes the roster.  

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Don't care if it's the 1st or 2nd round but Beane most likely will get a CB.

If he can trade back a few spots and get one in the top of the 2nd it's fine with me.

If he trades up a couple of spots to get one once again fine by me.

It's a critical need also.  No other position is that thin going into next year.

Currently only Tre and Dane Jackson signed as CBs for next year.

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3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean the numbers actually bear it out that there is a greater chance of success at the top of the draft. Drafting isn't an exact science and Beane might extract fantastic value at #30 from a guy that others have passed over but most of the guys the mockers have going high will be most of the guys that do go high and the hit rate on them when we look back in 5 years time will almost certainly be higher than the hit rate for guys taken 20-30. As for mocks having no value to Brandon Beane.... well the truth is he uses them. Whether they will do it this year sitting at #30 with so many variables in front I'm not sure but in the past they have run mock drafts among the scouting staff to do scenario planning for what might unfold. 

I hear what you’re saying, but does it not fall into the obvious category that  better players will be higher selections, and have greater odds of success?  Of course Beane uses hypotheticals to organize his methods, that makes obvious sense, but Beane doesn’t share his in work methods with others outside of his circle. What I was referencing is the endless number of talking heads nonstop steam of hypothetical draft scenarios, that in very short order becomes the worthless Babel that it is. 

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6 hours ago, NewEra said:

But what happens when the top 4 corners are gone before we pick...which will very likely be the case.  At that point, we’ll most likely be drafting a 2nd rd talent, regardless of position.  A 2nd rd defensive end might actually be the BPA @30.  Trading down would be ideal, but it takes two.  
 

I think we’ll be trading up to secure a 1st rd talent.  If we don’t trade up, I really hope that we trade down (unless someone falls into our laps).


Right. DE could be BPA. I was more commenting on a bunch of posts on this board and thread about how we “have” to draft a DE because that’s the biggest need. 
 

If DE is BPA go for it. I have no issues. 

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