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Gunner's 2021 Mock Draft v1.0 (Two Rounds!)


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1 hour ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I believe the Bills need to get creative in free agency to help the pass rush. I don't see any prospects who will "likely" be available at #30 who will make much of an impact in their first year. JMO.

 

Absolutely agree. 

 

Defense via FA - pass rush specific 

 

Protect Josh and supply him with weapons via draft 

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Morning all..... I spent a couple of hours on this last night so here is my first mock draft of 2021. For those new to the board or unfamiliar I tend to do one pre-free agency, one post and then one i

Thanks for the effort GB. I know that something like this takes time. There is too much work involved to just put this up in a few minutes. Posts like this are what makes this board great.  

The "we must focus on the Chiefs" mindset is over-simplification.    What the Chiefs exposed were problems the team had most of the season.   Easy to forget how much they struggled to put teams away d

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6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

If the draft fell this way I think I’d rather trade down naji Harris would make an excellent second round draft pick

We already have Dane likely taking over the CB2 slot. Our front 4 needs far outweigh our secondary. I too would love to trade out of the 1st for and extra 2nd. Maybe snag Najee or Basham? 

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2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We already have Dane likely taking over the CB2 slot. Our front 4 needs far outweigh our secondary. I too would love to trade out of the 1st for and extra 2nd. Maybe snag Najee or Basham? 

This is news to everyone. Probably news to Dane too.

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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If we want to be able to defend KC more effectively I think we need to have 2 corners who we are willing to single up occasionally.  


I think you can have the 2 best corners in the League and it won’t matter much if Mahomes has all day in the pocket ...

 

We just saw a clinic two weeks ago on how to kick the Chiefs and it was making Mahomes run for his life... The Bucs CB’s are solid but not elite in my book...

 

However .... like you are saying repeatedly... I don’t like the DE options that will be available at Pick 30...they are too raw or not the right schemes fit...

 

Trading down would be ideal although not guaranteed ... in this make believe world I would trade down to 40 and take Chazz Surratt...

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Nice info GB.

 

Hard to say what positions are prioritized until free agency moves are completed, but I get the sense that Milano may be a goner in which case we are one Tremaine Edmunds injury away from officially sucking on defense, regardless of what happens with the Dline.

 

Beaner is famous for saying drafting for need will set you back, but he's not picking a LT, QB, WR, RB or safety in the early rounds.  

 

We have a 2 year window until Josh hits our cap for $35+ million per year which is going to drastically reduce our ability to sign top free agents or retain our key guys, we need rooks that can come in and contribute right away so they need to be smart AND instinctive players.

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38 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

Gunner:  Would you take Nixon or Phillips over the CB if they were there?  Just askin.  I hope they are!!

Def not Nixon imo.

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2 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

Nice info GB.

 

Hard to say what positions are prioritized until free agency moves are completed, but I get the sense that Milano may be a goner in which case we are one Tremaine Edmunds injury away from officially sucking on defense, regardless of what happens with the Dline.

 

Beaner is famous for saying drafting for need will set you back, but he's not picking a LT, QB, WR, RB or safety in the early rounds.  

 

We have a 2 year window until Josh hits our cap for $35+ million per year which is going to drastically reduce our ability to sign top free agents or retain our key guys, we need rooks that can come in and contribute right away so they need to be smart AND instinctive players.

I could see him taking a WR if Kadarious is on the board.  Several option at wr and rb in rd 2-3 as well.  I think, as many have already alluded to.....much of the draft will be predicated on free agency results.  I expect BPA in an area of need.  If we lose brown and don’t sign another WR, WR could be considered a need based on our offense.  Speed at RB is a need imo.  Off ball LB.  pass rush.  oL. 1tech.  Corner. TE. All depends on what the roster looks like come April 

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2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Then since we need 3 of those, maybe the right thing is trade down for more picks. 

 

Or - depending how the players come off, get Josh some high end weaponry. Fill the needs further down as mentioned.

 

Ettienne or Harris would step right in and make a positive impact and add another dimension. 

 

Is there any way K. Toney makes it to 30? I love how he looks on tape. Looks like he'd shine in our offense. Looks great after the catch.

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@GunnerBill

Very well thought out mock. Outstanding work. 

 

The only thing I disagree with is that Friermuth needs work on his blocking. I think hes one of the best blocking TE's in the draft. To me he is going to start day 1 in the NFL. 

 

Other than I couldn't disagree with much!

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39 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:


I think you can have the 2 best corners in the League and it won’t matter much if Mahomes has all day in the pocket ...

 

We just saw a clinic two weeks ago on how to kick the Chiefs and it was making Mahomes run for his life... The Bucs CB’s are solid but not elite in my book...

 

However .... like you are saying repeatedly... I don’t like the DE options that will be available at Pick 30...they are too raw or not the right schemes fit...

 

 

Completely agree. The two teams that beat Mahomes this year both pressured him on more than 50% of his dropbacks. We will have to find a way to pressure him, thought having two corners who you can trust to go and plays more press might just make him hold it a split second longer that helps your rushers. And as you say the reason I didm't go edge at #30 was because there wasn't one there that made sense in terms of value and fit.

10 minutes ago, DJB said:

@GunnerBill

Very well thought out mock. Outstanding work. 

 

The only thing I disagree with is that Friermuth needs work on his blocking. I think hes one of the best blocking TE's in the draft. To me he is going to start day 1 in the NFL. 

 

Other than I couldn't disagree with much!

 

Thank you. I think he can block it needs a bit of polish for the pros that is all. If I didn't think he could block then he wouldn't have been a fit in Jax I don't think. 

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8 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

If the draft fell this way I think I’d rather trade down naji Harris would make an excellent second round draft pick

 

Everyone always wants to trade down, I just don't see an opportunity to do so this year. There aren't going to be blue chip players available at #30 that teams will want to give up picks for. Maybe if a team at the top of round 2 really likes Leatherwood and wants to jump the Chiefs for him? That's the only trade down scenario I could foresee.

 

More likely I think is that Beane will look to trade up. If Owusu-Koramoah or Toney fall into the 20s I could see us giving up our 3rd to get one of them. Both are perfect fits for the Bills as needs and scheme matches. Beane isn't the type to sit and hope he gets his guy. He wants to draft day 1 impact starters in the 1st round.

Edited by HappyDays
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14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Completely agree. The two teams that beat Mahomes this year both pressured him on more than 50% of his dropbacks. We will have to find a way to pressure him, thought having two corners who you can trust to go and plays more press might just make him hold it a split second longer that helps your rushers. And as you say the reason I didm't go edge at #30 was because there wasn't one there that made sense in terms of value and fit.


It can’t hurt to have a better 2nd corner but am hoping they can get there cheaper than Pick 30 ...
 

BTW - I do like Radunz and would be very happy with that pick in the 2nd ... but I think he might gone by 40... 

 

Also... I think Landon Dickerson won’t get picked in the first as teams will be put off by his injury history ...

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3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Everyone always wants to trade down, I just don't see an opportunity to do so this year. There aren't going to be blue chip players available at #30 that teams will want to give up picks for. Maybe if a team at the top of round 2 really likes Leatherwood and wants to jump the Chiefs for him? That's the only trade down scenario I could foresee.

 

More likely I think is that Beane will look to trade up. If Owusu-Koramoah or Toney fall into the 20s I could see us giving up our 3rd to get one of them. Both are perfect fits for the Bills as needs and scheme matches. Beane isn't the type to sit and hope he gets his guy. He wants to draft day 1 impact starters in the 1st round.

 

I agree with that. If you had asked me before I sat down to do this mock "is there any chance the Bills trade up in round 1?" I'd have said you need your head examining. But through the process of doing this there are guys, the three potential edge guys who I think can play in a 4-3, JOK, Toney possibly, maybe one of the top 4 OTs.... that if they just slipped into that range of the early 20s then Beane could be interested. The question is who would trade back? The Bears at #20 would I think but the cost of that is our 2nd round pick.... too rich? The Colts I doubt they are like us... they need 2 or 3 impact guys. Tennessee not if there is an edge rusher there they like, no way. The Jets? Rare you trade with a division opponent in round 1, the Steelers I think would at #24 and the Jags at #25 and they are doable with our 3rd rounder. So if an impact player drops to there... Pittsburgh... then it is possible IMO. 

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9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

the Steelers I think would at #24 and the Jags at #25 and they are doable with our 3rd rounder. So if an impact player drops to there... Pittsburgh... then it is possible IMO.

 

Jacksonville was my immediate thought. They are in full rebuild mode and have enough high end picks already where they can afford to move down a little in exchange for another young talented player. If Beane has a 1st round grade on any player left at #25 that's where I'd expect us to make a move.

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Good write up.  I will puke if they draft a DB in the first three rounds.  They have cheap quality guys in Levi and Dane to pair with White. They need pass rushers - at least three new faces either in FA or the draft. They have needed them for three years and they continue to swing and miss.   Obviously we will have a better sense of their needs in a few weeks once the initial rush of FA is over and if they are able to sign Williams.  

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6 hours ago, whorlnut said:

I just can’t get behind a first round corner in any way. Not even close to our biggest need. We need to add an athletic edge, playmaker on offense, or an OT. 

 

I mostly agree, can't get too excited about drafting a CB2 in the 1st round. But we're talking about pick #30. There aren't going to be any options that will blow you away at that spot. Doing some reading on Newsome he does look like a perfect scheme fit and a good complement for what we get from White. He seems athletic enough to keep up with the Tyreek Hills of the league. Also with Milano likely walking and the front 4 likely seeing modest at best improvements this offseason, we might need better coverage on the back end if we want our defense to have any chance of stopping good offenses. So personally I would rather we draft a different position but if we pick a CB2 as long as they actually have athleticism like Newsome does I'll be satisfied. If we draft a slow, low upside "instinctual" corner that is a pick I would hate.

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1 hour ago, NewEra said:

I could see him taking a WR if Kadarious is on the board.  Several option at wr and rb in rd 2-3 as well.  I think, as many have already alluded to.....much of the draft will be predicated on free agency results.  I expect BPA in an area of need.  If we lose brown and don’t sign another WR, WR could be considered a need based on our offense.  Speed at RB is a need imo.  Off ball LB.  pass rush.  oL. 1tech.  Corner. TE. All depends on what the roster looks like come April 

I don’t expect a WR in the first 3 or 4 rounds unless the value is sky high, even if the release Brown for cap savings and lose McKenzie.  I think that Gabe Davis will step into WR3 role.

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