Week 9: Seahawks at Bills

[JohnNord]

8 hours ago, Penfield45 said:

 

seattle puts up 30 points per game with ease. 

 

if the Bills offense can't reach 30 this weekend they can forget about winning. 

Exactly... I’m not suggesting trying to make this a low scoring affair.  What I’m saying is that the Bills offense needs to try to control time of possession and efficient in the redzone.  
 

More time for the Bills offense means less Seattle possessions.  
 

On defense they need to get Seattle off the field at least a few times.  If the offense limits possessions but the defense allows a TD every time they have the ball, it’s not going to matter.  

[EmotionallyUnstable]

2 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Exactly... I’m not suggesting trying to make this a low scoring affair.  What I’m saying is that the Bills offense needs to try to control time of possession and efficient in the redzone.  
 

More time for the Bills offense means less Seattle possessions.  
 

On defense they need to get Seattle off the field at least a few times.  If the offense limits possessions but the defense allows a TD every time they have the ball, it’s not going to matter.  

I think TOP is rather insignificant in a game like this. As you said, they are going to score, and a LOT. We need to score too. It doesn’t matter if you have the ball for a 10 minute drive in the 3rd quarter if you don’t finish with 6. 
 

Like you said, it has to be a balance. Idc how long they have the ball, if a Bills offensive drive ends with 6, im good.

[97bills]

2 hours ago, Weatherman said:

Tre’Davious Haynesworth?  Just kidding, he’s obviously playing injured. 

I guess everyone is on D lol

[Hapless Bills Fan]

https://www.nfl.com/videos/kurt-warner-s-outlook-for-seahawks-bills-in-week-9

 

Kurt is polite about it, but you can tell he thinks very little of the Bills.

[billsfan89]

32 minutes ago, BillsMafi$ said:

The Seahawks are on pace to allow 7,376 yards this season, which would be an NFL record.
 

 

If out offense doesn’t produce Sunday. There’s some real issues 

 

If the offense can put up 28 points they should be ashamed of themselves. 

8 minutes ago, 97bills said:

I guess everyone is on D lol

 

This team is banged up. I hate the phrase hurting for a bye, but this team is really hurting for the bye. 

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Wondering where you obtained these rankings? I have the Bills as overall defensively #15 on PPG, #16 on YPG, both before and after the Pats game.

Before, #15 for pass ypg and #21 for rush ypg.  After, #11 for pass ypg and #26 for rush ypg.

 

Of note that because of the schedule changes, an unusually large # of teams have different # of games so sources like pro football reference and NFL.com, so that skews data a bit.  Above rankings are corrected for # games.

 

Overall I'd say we're average in defense, rush defense numbers are overall skewed by the KC game where we allowed more than 2x the league average of rush ypg.

 

 

Agreed

 

 

Agreed with that last.

 

The Bills defense is a bit of a mystery wrapped in an enigma to me.  Overall we're exactly mediocre on D.  15th for PPG, 16th for YPG.

Looking at rush D, we're precisely split: 4 games worse than league average (one by a lot); 4 games better than league average.

Pass D, we're overall better than league average, almost top 10 - yet we have 6 games where we've given up worse than league average pass yards.

I don't quite know what to make of it.  That burning smell is me thinking about it.

 

football db and nfl.com, BUT you are right there are a lot of teams that have only played 7 games this year so that definitely would skew those total yards.

 

So just looking at the 14 teams that have played 8 games they are a combined 51/59/2 wins/losses/ties. KC, the Bills, and Tampa skew these wins as having really good records... the majority of these teams have poor records only 6 of them with winning records - one is sitting at 500.

 

In just that pool of 14 teams we are:

 

11th for total rushing yards given up.

6th for total passing yards given up.

This is mirrored in the yards/game as well.

 

Not sure what that tells us overall it is pretty hard without teams having played the same number of games which is usually the outlier with a few bye-weeks, but will need some sort of correction by the league at some point. I would not mind the Bills and the 14 teams on that list getting some kind of bye-week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by WideNine

[billsfan89]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://www.nfl.com/videos/kurt-warner-s-outlook-for-seahawks-bills-in-week-9

 

Kurt is polite about it, but you can tell he thinks very little of the Bills.

 

Warner is fair. The defense stinks and Josh has to adapt to zone defenses. I trust Wilson to win a shootout more than Josh but Josh gives this team a punchers chance. 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Penfield45 said:

we also come up against some top 5 defenses 

 

Chargers, SF, Denver 

We knew this years schedule was going to be a gauntlet and it has been. 

[njbuff]

Seattle has given up over 500 yards 3 times this year.

 

Ouch.

 

But the Bills under McDermott haven't really taken advantage of playing against a bad D, meaning a really good team with a bad D.

 

Against Seattle would be a nice start.

Edited November 5, 2020 by njbuff

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, WideNine said:

 

football db and nfl.com, BUT you are right there are a lot of teams that have only played 7 games this year so that definitely would skew those total yards.

 

So just looking at the 14 teams that have played 8 games they are a combined 51/59/2 wins/losses/ties. KC, the Bills, and Tampa skew these wins as having really good records... the majority of these teams have poor records only 6 of them with winning records - one is sitting at 500.

 

In just that pool of 14 teams we are:

 

11th for total rushing yards given up.

6th for total passing yards given up.

This is mirrored in the yards/game as well.

 

Not sure what that tells us overall it is pretty hard without teams having played the same number of games which is usually the outlier with a few bye-weeks, but will need some sort of correction by the league at some point. I would not mind the Bills and the 14 teams on that list getting some kind of bye-week.

 

Please to note that the rankings I gave in the post you quoted were per-game, calculated from the data available on pro-football-reference.

I don't see any superior value in limiting your view to teams that have played the same number of games.

 

"I have the Bills as overall defensively #15 on PPG, #16 on YPG, both before and after the Pats game.

Before, #15 for pass ypg and #21 for rush ypg.  After, #11 for pass ypg and #26 for rush ypg."

 

This is calculated for all 32 teams, by normalizing to games played.

 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I’m usually on the edge of pessimism and always think every game is going to be tough..I have a good feeling about this week. I’m not really sure why. I feel like everyone fears the Seahawks because of Wilson but I have a feeling we will be in this thing. God knows I can be wrong but I’m getting a Rams vibe here.

[WideNine]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Please to note that the rankings I gave in the post you quoted were per-game, calculated from the data available on pro-football-reference.

I don't see any superior value in limiting your view to teams that have played the same number of games.

 

"I have the Bills as overall defensively #15 on PPG, #16 on YPG, both before and after the Pats game.

Before, #15 for pass ypg and #21 for rush ypg.  After, #11 for pass ypg and #26 for rush ypg."

 

This is calculated for all 32 teams, by normalizing to games played.

 

 

Yes I noted that and I was looking at total yards yielded vs PG.

 

How did you normalize for games played?

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

Warner is fair. The defense stinks and Josh has to adapt to zone defenses. I trust Wilson to win a shootout more than Josh but Josh gives this team a punchers chance. 

 

Warner is fair, but he's all about the Offense and he doesn't go very deep.

 

The truth is, while Seattle's offense has been great - they've had to be, to stay ahead of the yards and points their defense gives up.  It's very very rare to see a top team which wins consistently give up more yards on defense, than they've gained on offense yet that's just where Seattle is - 414/game gained, 460/game given up. 

 

And it's not a result of one game skewing their average either. They've done this in 5 of their 7 games.  Ironically, one game where they didn't, was the game they lost!   Is it that they're burying other teams, so those teams are throwing a lot to catch up?  I took a quick look at the halftime score in their games and the answer is "Not really".  They were behind in 1 game at the half (Vikes up by 13), tied at the half (Pats).  They've only had one game (the game they lost, ironically - the Cardinals game) where they were leading by 10 points at the half.  The other 4 games went into halftime as nominally a 1 score game.

 

The difference, of course, is turnovers.  They're overall +7 in takeaways vs giveaways.  I remember one year when the Bills shot out to an early winning record buoyed by a positive takeaway ratio, people here were pretty clamorous that it wasn't sustainable.

It would be interesting to see if the Bills could build a good lead by halftime, what would they do?

 

8 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Yes I noted that and I was looking at total yards yielded vs PG.

 

How did you normalize for games played?

 

Just divided  - points for or against/# games, yds given up or gained/# games, etc.  Dumped the data into a spreadsheet, I'm lazy.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, njbuff said:

Seattle has given up over 500 yards 3 times this year.

Ouch.

But the Bills under McDermott haven't really taken advantage of playing against a bad D, meaning a really good team with a bad D.

Against Seattle would be a nice start.

 

Question: who do you consider the Bills have played, that would constitute a good team with a bad D?

 

55 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I’m usually on the edge of pessimism and always think every game is going to be tough..I have a good feeling about this week. I’m not really sure why. I feel like everyone fears the Seahawks because of Wilson but I have a feeling we will be in this thing. God knows I can be wrong but I’m getting a Rams vibe here.

 

Could we do the Rams vibe thing without the 3-score comeback this time?  My heart says "please" and "TIA"

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Question: who do you consider the Bills have played, that would constitute a good team with a bad D?

 

 

Could we do the Rams vibe thing without the 3-score comeback this time?  My heart says "please" and "TIA"

I will take a win anyway we can get it

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I will take a win anyway we can get it

 

Oh, me too me too.  I just thought while you're getting that Rams vibe, you might be able to dampen that feature.  Unless of course, we're the ones coming back...

[eball]

I’m just checking in to suggest that the Seahawks are a bit worried about playing Josh Allen and the Bills offense this weekend.  It’s really amazing how this fan base takes every opportunity to go in the worst direction possible.

 

Go Bills.

[judman]

My son has been a Seahawks fan for years. Who can blame him?  He’s 18 and they have been really good for all the time he remembers. I’d love it if he was a Bills fan, but he’s watched me swear and wretch for years. 
 

Anyway,  we had planned on this Seahawks game for years. He’s a senior in high school this year.  I was gonna make this a great weekend for us (hotel, wings, etc.) And to see that we would have been treated to 70 degrees and sunshine in early November is particularly tough to see. 
 

Sucks to have that taken from us. 
 

Go Bills!

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Warner is fair, but he's all about the Offense and he doesn't go very deep.

 

The truth is, while Seattle's offense has been great - they've had to be, to stay ahead of the yards and points their defense gives up.  It's very very rare to see a top team which wins consistently give up more yards on defense, than they've gained on offense yet that's just where Seattle is - 414/game gained, 460/game given up. 

 

And it's not a result of one game skewing their average either. They've done this in 5 of their 7 games.  Ironically, one game where they didn't, was the game they lost!   Is it that they're burying other teams, so those teams are throwing a lot to catch up?  I took a quick look at the halftime score in their games and the answer is "Not really".  They were behind in 1 game at the half (Vikes up by 13), tied at the half (Pats).  They've only had one game (the game they lost, ironically - the Cardinals game) where they were leading by 10 points at the half.  The other 4 games went into halftime as nominally a 1 score game.

 

The difference, of course, is turnovers.  They're overall +7 in takeaways vs giveaways.  I remember one year when the Bills shot out to an early winning record buoyed by a positive takeaway ratio, people here were pretty clamorous that it wasn't sustainable.

It would be interesting to see if the Bills could build a good lead by halftime, what would they do?

Good stuff - I remember well that year where every tipped pass seemed to land in the hands of someone in our secondary, but as you said, the bounces did not keep bouncing our way. This could be a very interesting game and could very much come down to the team with the fewest turnovers/mistakes.
 

 

 

Just divided  - points for or against/# games, yds given up or gained/# games, etc.  Dumped the data into a spreadsheet, I'm lazy.