Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

[Tiberius]

1 hour ago, Big Gun said:

Boy are you going to be disappointed, these biased polls are bunk and you know it. If you dont know that by now you're  pretty dumb. Dems traditionally vote early and have large leads where as Repubs vote late in person at the polls and will win the election. Trafalgar is a much more accurate poll. 

I believe the polls just because I look at Trump and wonder who the hell would vote for such a d-bag. What you guys see in that clown is beyond me. 

[Big Gun]

16 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

I believe the polls just because I look at Trump and wonder who the hell would vote for such a d-bag. What you guys see in that clown is beyond me. 

Latest Rasmussen for Florida

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/florida_trump_49_biden_46

 

Yeah and Biden is such a stand up guy right, give me a break!

 

Edited October 23, 2020 by Big Gun

[Tiberius]

3 minutes ago, Big Gun said:

Latest Rasmussen for Florida

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/florida_trump_49_biden_46

 

Yeah and Biden is such a stand up guy right, give me a break!

 

Bidens a decent human being. Never heard anyone accuse Trump of being that. 

 

Biden doesn’t even need Florida 

[WideNine]

31 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Bidens a decent human being. Never heard anyone accuse Trump of being that. 

 

Biden doesn’t even need Florida 

 

Truth.

 

Rather than tit for tat poll references for Florida here is collection of poll data by different groups including Rasmussen which has a rather small sample size.

 

https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/florida/

 

 

[Tiberius]

West Virginia: Trump vs. Biden

WMOV

Trump 58, Biden 38

Trump +20

 

 

😂🤣

[SoTier]

6 hours ago, Tiberius said:

West Virginia: Trump vs. Biden

WMOV

Trump 58, Biden 38

Trump +20

 

 

😂🤣

 

That should cheer up the Trumplets.

[Plano]

2 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

That should cheer up the Trumplets.

lmao. West Virginia & Kentucky. YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAW

[B-Man]

 

 

FOUR YEARS AGO THIS WEEKEND: 

 

Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead, Boosted by Broad Disapproval of Trump (POLL). 

 

“All told, Clinton leads Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 50 to 38 percent, in the national survey, her highest support and his lowest to date in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls.”

 

 

 

 

 

[Fan boy '92]

54 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

FOUR YEARS AGO THIS WEEKEND: 

 

Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead, Boosted by Broad Disapproval of Trump (POLL). 

 

“All told, Clinton leads Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 50 to 38 percent, in the national survey, her highest support and his lowest to date in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls.”

 

 

 

 

 

Yup, they're called supression polls and were detailed in Podesta's emails stolen by SR/Russia! in 2016. Over sample democrats to scew the poll and depress the Republican vote. They're no secret, but they're effective.

[Backintheday544]

Found this analysis interesting on Republican internal polling:

 

https://www.kimt.com/content/national/572826622.html

 

I looked at more than a dozen of these partisan polls released to the public from House and Senate races since the major party conventions in August. These partisan polls are notoriously unreliable, and none of them meet CNN standards for reporting.

The reason is simple: Partisans don't want to release polls that are bad for their side. That means the polls sponsored by a party, candidate or partisan organization tend to be biased in favor of the side releasing the poll.

That's why it was amazing to find that on average, Trump was doing 5 points worse than he did in 2016 in the states and districts in released Republican and conservative polls.

If Trump actually did 5 points worse than he did in 2016 in the swing states, it would mean he'd lose Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those states, plus the ones Hillary Clinton won in 2016, would be more than enough for Biden to get over 270 electoral votes.

But remember: These are only the polls conservatives and Republicans were willing to put into the public sphere. There's good reason to believe it's worse for Trump in the numbers they're not releasing.

[Reality Check]

2 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

Found this analysis interesting on Republican internal polling:

 

https://www.kimt.com/content/national/572826622.html

 

I looked at more than a dozen of these partisan polls released to the public from House and Senate races since the major party conventions in August. These partisan polls are notoriously unreliable, and none of them meet CNN standards for reporting.

The reason is simple: Partisans don't want to release polls that are bad for their side. That means the polls sponsored by a party, candidate or partisan organization tend to be biased in favor of the side releasing the poll.

That's why it was amazing to find that on average, Trump was doing 5 points worse than he did in 2016 in the states and districts in released Republican and conservative polls.

If Trump actually did 5 points worse than he did in 2016 in the swing states, it would mean he'd lose Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those states, plus the ones Hillary Clinton won in 2016, would be more than enough for Biden to get over 270 electoral votes.

But remember: These are only the polls conservatives and Republicans were willing to put into the public sphere. There's good reason to believe it's worse for Trump in the numbers they're not releasing.

 

[Backintheday544]

2 minutes ago, Reality Check said:

 

 

Amy thoughtful analysis today or just going to spam the board with YouTube videos that have nothing to do with the thread?

[Reality Check]

2 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

Amy thoughtful analysis today or just going to spam the board with YouTube videos that have nothing to do with the thread?

Who is Amy?

 

Amy Coney Barrett will join the SCOTUS.

 

Trump will be president for another term.

 

My videos have to do with your mental deficiencies in terms of digesting current events with any sort of accuracy based on psychological flaws and programmed bias.

 

You might qualify as a parrot or an echo in another life, not much else though...

 

Don't worry though, we will all have a most excellent Thanksgiving this year.

 

I am already grateful.

[Backintheday544]

1 minute ago, Reality Check said:

Who is Amy?

 

Amy Coney Barrett will join the SCOTUS.

 

Trump will be president for another term.

 

My videos have to do with your mental deficiencies in terms of digesting current events with any sort of accuracy based on psychological flaws and programmed bias.

 

You might qualify as a parrot or an echo in another life, not much else though...

 

Don't worry though, we will all have a most excellent Thanksgiving this year.

 

I am already grateful.

 

Awesome to know. You seem more of an NPC parroting right wing talking points than digesting any sort of real news.

 

The article I brought up was to look at Republican internal polls. These are showing Trump doing worse than 2016. These thoughts have been echoed by the Republican senators who are distancing themselves. Just yesterday Trump said they're likely to lose the Senate as well. Why do they think these things? Republican internal polling.

 

Republican Senators Ben Sesse with actual look at Republican internal polling said: “We are staring down the barrel of a blue tsunami"

 

 

[Reality Check]

1 minute ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

Awesome to know. You seem more of an NPC parroting right wing talking points than digesting any sort of real news.

 

The article I brought up was to look at Republican internal polls. These are showing Trump doing worse than 2016. These thoughts have been echoed by the Republican senators who are distancing themselves. Just yesterday Trump said they're likely to lose the Senate as well. Why do they think these things? Republican internal polling.

 

Republican Senators Ben Sesse with actual look at Republican internal polling said: “We are staring down the barrel of a blue tsunami"

 

 

You seem addicted to propaganda and self-delusion. That is your problem, not mine.

[Tiberius]

11 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

That should cheer up the Trumplets.

 I thought they needed some good news. 

[Plano]

11 hours ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

Amy thoughtful analysis today or just going to spam the board with YouTube videos that have nothing to do with the thread?

nope, no thoughts at all. clearly just likes spamming youtube videos and being a trumpbot.

 

 

[Reality Check]

1 hour ago, Plano said:

nope, no thoughts at all. clearly just likes spamming youtube videos and being a trumpbot.

 

 

 

[Backintheday544]

40 minutes ago, Reality Check said:

 

 

Awww. No voice of your own so you need to speak through YouTube videos yet again. I honestly feel bad for you and hope you can find the help you need to one day express your own opinions.

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

On 10/23/2020 at 12:11 PM, Tiberius said:

I like the brunette the best, but would be willing to reconsider after more through investigation 

 

On 10/23/2020 at 12:13 PM, BuffaloHokie13 said:

She is correctly identified as a 10, per her wrist label

 

[Gary M]

On 10/25/2020 at 7:15 AM, Reality Check said:

 

 

That is an ugly blue door

 

 

 

not a poll, no oversampling, no dishonest answers, just data driven.

 

http://primarymodel.com/2020-1

 

 

Edited October 28, 2020 by Gary M

[The Frankish Reich]

We are starting to get the final wave of pre-election day polls. And not surprisingly ... very little change.

This one isn't really a poll, but it provides some sound explanations for why.

 

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/election-live-updates-trump-biden-2020-10-28/card/x2JHukTnPfUAWLWT2qHE

 

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey has found no evidence, so far, of the kind of late surge toward President Trump among undecided voters that helped produce his unexpected wins in 2016.

When pollsters asked themselves how so many missed signs that Mr. Trump would win the 2016 election, one factor they identified was a late swing toward him in the last days of the campaign.

About 13% of voters in Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania settled on their candidate choice in the week before the last election, a report by a professional association of opinion researchers found. Those voters broke for Mr. Trump by 30 percentage points in Wisconsin and by 17 points in Florida and Pennsylvania, helping to deliver narrow victories, the study said.

This month, the Journal/NBC News poll went looking for signs of a similar, late shift—and found a different picture than in 2016. Undecided voters seem to be moving equally toward both presidential candidates.

[WEATHER DOT COM]

 

[Tiberius]

3 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

Oh, hope that is it. 50% mark looks real good. What a win that would be and the Senate seats! That Purdue is a POS 

[Backintheday544]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

We are starting to get the final wave of pre-election day polls. And not surprisingly ... very little change.

This one isn't really a poll, but it provides some sound explanations for why.

 

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/election-live-updates-trump-biden-2020-10-28/card/x2JHukTnPfUAWLWT2qHE

 

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey has found no evidence, so far, of the kind of late surge toward President Trump among undecided voters that helped produce his unexpected wins in 2016.

When pollsters asked themselves how so many missed signs that Mr. Trump would win the 2016 election, one factor they identified was a late swing toward him in the last days of the campaign.

About 13% of voters in Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania settled on their candidate choice in the week before the last election, a report by a professional association of opinion researchers found. Those voters broke for Mr. Trump by 30 percentage points in Wisconsin and by 17 points in Florida and Pennsylvania, helping to deliver narrow victories, the study said.

This month, the Journal/NBC News poll went looking for signs of a similar, late shift—and found a different picture than in 2016. Undecided voters seem to be moving equally toward both presidential candidates.

The higher turn out also should make the polls more accurate.

[The Frankish Reich]

Today's flurry of polls: Other than the Rasmussen outlier and maybe the Emerson national poll, we're still seeing:

- remarkable consistency in the lead for Biden

- an actual shift toward Biden in some swing states, corresponding with an overall shift of a few points toward Dems in general

There's a lot of debate about what that ABC/Wash Post outlier for Wisconsin means/doesn't mean (Biden + 17!). Consensus seems to be that it's part real, part statistical blip. The argument for "real" is that the horrible COVID numbers in Wisconsin are driving people away from Trump and toward Biden, and indeed that does seem to be a theme whenever and wherever we see bad regional outbreaks.

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Emerson	Biden 50, Trump 45	Biden +5
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Rasmussen Reports	Biden 47, Trump 48	Trump +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Economist/YouGov	Biden 54, Trump 43	Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins	IBD/TIPP	Biden 50, Trump 45, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1	Biden +5
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden	Trafalgar Group (R)*	Biden 48, Trump 47	Biden +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden	ABC News/Wash Post*	Biden 57, Trump 40	Biden +17
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena*	Biden 49, Trump 41	Biden +8
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden	ABC News/Wash Post*	Biden 51, Trump 44	Biden +7
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden	Civitas/Harper (R)*	Biden 47, Trump 46	Biden +1
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden	Monmouth*	Trump 46, Biden 50	Biden +4
Maine: Trump vs. Biden	Colby College	Biden 51, Trump 38	Biden +13
Maine CD2: Trump vs. Biden	Colby College	Trump 42, Biden 46	Biden +4
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden	Christopher Newport Univ.	Biden 53, Trump 41	Biden +12
Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon	Colby College*	Gideon 47, Collins 43	Gideon +4
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters	NY Times/Siena*	Peters 49, James 41	Peters +8
Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Ossoff	Monmouth*	Perdue 47, Ossoff 49	Ossoff +2
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters	ABC News/Wash Post	Peters 52, James 46	Peters +6
North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham	Civitas/Harper (R)*	Cunningham 46, Tillis 43	Cunningham +3
Georgia Senate Special Election - Open Primary	Monmouth	Warnock 41, Collins 19, Loeffler 22, Lieberman 4, Slowinski 2, Tarver 3	Warnock +19
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters	Detroit News/WDIV-TV	Peters 48, James 39	Peters +9
Virginia Senate - Gade vs. Warner	Christopher Newport Univ.	Warner 57, Gade 37	Warner +20
Maine 2nd District - Crafts vs. Golden	Colby College	Golden 56, Crafts 31	Golden +25
President Trump Job Approval	Emerson	Approve 45, Disapprove 51	Disapprove +6
President Trump Job Approval	Rasmussen Reports	Approve 52, Disapprove 47	Approve +5
President Trump Job Approval	Economist/YouGov	Approve 42, Disapprove 56	Disapprove +14
Congressional Job Approval	Economist/YouGov	Approve 15, Disapprove 68	Disapprove +53
2020 Generic Congressional Vote	Economist/YouGov	Democrats 52, Republicans 42	Democrats +10
Direction of Country	Economist/YouGov	Right Direction 30, Wrong Track 65	Wrong Track +35

 

[Warcodered]

https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-10-28/analysis-tossup-states-grow-but-biden-still-leads-in-electoral-college-projection

 

Thought this was interesting basically says the number of toss ups has increased from both sides. But the numbers for Trump were interesting with him having 163 with only 96 tossups doesn't exactly add up well for him.

[Tiberius]

North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden

NBC News/Marist

Biden 52, Trump 46

Biden +6

 

 

Yup 

[Big Gun]

59 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden

NBC News/Marist

Biden 52, Trump 46

Biden +6

 

 

Yup 

Hahaha... so which poll is more accurate?  A biased NBC news poll or the unbiased Trafalger Group. This is from Oct 25th

 

 

NC Oct 2020 Presidential Poll

Donald Trump 48.8%
Joe Biden 46.0%
Jo Jorgensen 2.3%
Howie Hawkins 0.4%
Don Blankenship 0.2%
Someone Else 0.6%
Undecided 1.7%

See Report Here

Edited October 30, 2020 by Big Gun

[Tiberius]

15 minutes ago, Big Gun said:

Hahaha... so which poll is more accurate?  A biased NBC news poll or the unbiased Trafalger Group. This is from Oct 25th

 

 

NC Oct 2020 Presidential Poll

Donald Trump 48.8%
Joe Biden 46.0%
Jo Jorgensen 2.3%
Howie Hawkins 0.4%
Don Blankenship 0.2%
Someone Else 0.6%
Undecided 1.7%

See Report Here

Trafalger gets promoted by Trump all the time. That's a pretty damning indictment to their credibility. 

 

I'll just say this, i really think NC goes Dem. I'll explain. Obama won in 2008 and theres been a lot of change there since. Mitt won it back and then in 2016 Trump won but the Dems captured the governors mansion, so it seems Hillary was the reason Dems lost Presidential vote there. . It's a Democratic state in the making with the growing cities and more diverse population. 

 

Only time will tell now, though. 

[Warcodered]

5 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Trafalger gets promoted by Trump all the time. That's a pretty damning indictment to their credibility. 

 

I'll just say this, i really think NC goes Dem. I'll explain. Obama won in 2008 and theres been a lot of change there since. Mitt won it back and then in 2016 Trump won but the Dems captured the governors mansion, so it seems Hillary was the reason Dems lost Presidential vote there. . It's a Democratic state in the making with the growing cities and more diverse population. 

 

Only time will tell now, though. 

They literally say they skew in his favor to apparently cover for "shy voters" or some BS. 538 rates them as C- and they've been correct 75% of the time. But they're the only unbiased poll for some totally unbiased reason I'm sure.

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

They literally say they skew in his favor to apparently cover for "shy voters" or some BS. 538 rates them as C- and they've been correct 75% of the time. But they're the only unbiased poll for some totally unbiased reason I'm sure.

Republican pollsters like tralafagar got lucky in 2016 because all the undecids broke for Trump at the last second mostly because of Comey opening up the Hillary investigation.  Since there's less undecideds this time the polls should be more accurate.  I just go with the averages like the midterms.

 

[TBBills]

43 minutes ago, Big Gun said:

Hahaha... so which poll is more accurate?  A biased NBC news poll or the unbiased Trafalger Group. This is from Oct 25th

 

 

NC Oct 2020 Presidential Poll

Donald Trump 48.8%
Joe Biden 46.0%
Jo Jorgensen 2.3%
Howie Hawkins 0.4%
Don Blankenship 0.2%
Someone Else 0.6%
Undecided 1.7%

See Report Here

So if Biden was winning in that poll it would be biased right?

[Tiberius]

1 hour ago, TBBills said:

So if Biden was winning in that poll it would be biased right?

Chinese propaganda

[Backintheday544]

17 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Republican pollsters like tralafagar got lucky in 2016 because all the undecids broke for Trump at the last second mostly because of Comey opening up the Hillary investigation.  Since there's less undecideds this time the polls should be more accurate.  I just go with the averages like the midterms.

 

outside of WI, 2016 RCP averages were pretty accurate.

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, Backintheday544 said:

outside of WI, 2016 RCP averages were pretty accurate.

True.  Most states were within the margin of error.  The problem wasn't so much the polls but the interpretation of the polls.  Again, the major difference this year is Biden getting 49% or above in the polling average because there are less undecideds.

 

Wisconsin is pry the best example of nearly all the undecideds going to Trump.  There were the most undecideds in Wisconsin as the rcp average was 46.8% for Clinton and 40.3% for Trump.  Trump won 47.2% to 46.7%.  Hillary was a weak candidate but people tend to underestimate how bad that Comey letter was for the large amount of undecideds.

 

Pollsters are done if Trump wins these states down four to six points in the averages this time.

 

 

[Tiberius]

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

True.  Most states were within the margin of error.  The problem wasn't so much the polls but the interpretation of the polls.  Again, the major difference this year is Biden getting 49% or above in the polling average because there are less undecideds.

 

Wisconsin is pry the best example of nearly all the undecideds going to Trump.  There were the most undecideds in Wisconsin as the rcp average was 46.8% for Clinton and 40.3% for Trump.  Trump won 47.2% to 46.7%.  Hillary was a weak candidate but people tend to underestimate how bad that Comey letter was for the large amount of undecideds.

 

Pollsters are done if Trump wins these states down four to six points in the averages this time.

 

 

Yup, the Comey thing was a terrible blow 

[Tiberius]

Just a note, the polls from NC look great for Biden, and that is a spike to the heart of the devil Trump 

 

 

Results	Spread
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena*	Biden 49, Trump 43	Biden +6
Florida: Trump vs. Biden	St. Pete Polls	Biden 49, Trump 48	Biden +1
Florida: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena*	Biden 47, Trump 44	Biden +3
Florida: Trump vs. Biden	ABC News/Wash Post*	Biden 48, Trump 50	Trump +2
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena*	Biden 52, Trump 41	Biden +11
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena*	Biden 49, Trump 43	Biden +6
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden	ABC News/Wash Post*	Biden 51, Trump 44	Biden +7
New Mexico: Trump vs. Biden	Albuquerque Journal	Biden 54, Trump 42	Biden +12
Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly	NY Times/Siena	Kelly 50, McSally 43	Kelly +7
New Mexico Senate - Ronchetti vs. Lujan	Albuquerque Journal*	Lujan 52, Ronchetti 44	Lujan +8

[ALF]

Pollster who called 2016 for Trump says he'll win again

 

In 2016, Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group used unorthodox polling to correctly predict five swing states and Donald Trump's electoral college tally. Rebuffing skeptics, he says undercounted voters will again elect Trump.Source: CNN

 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/10/31/the-outlier-pollster-who-called-2016-for-trump-says-hell-win-again.cnn

[Dr. Who]

Red Wave coming.