Newton vs Allen and Pats vs Bills

[eball]

2 minutes ago, Ghost_002! said:

And historically BBs teams get better later in the season. It would be better to play them earlier

 

This season I expect the Bills to be one of the fastest teams out of the gate given their overall continuity and preparation.

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, P Riv said:

 

I didn't check the schedule, so that later in the season match up is good for us (injuries pending of course).  FB for them looks like that German dude, forget the name (Jakob...?) with a couple of their TE's as H-backs.  Their run game works very well with a FB, doesn't work without one as last season showed.  They lost both FB's to injury last year, guessing that doesn't happen again.

 

 

James Develin was their long time FB but he retired and Danny Vitale was going to replace him but he is a Covid 19 Opt-Out guy.

I agree with you that the Pats* want to run the ball again but they have taken a big hit in the FB and TE/HB positions.

[Niagara Bill]

Josh has leadership, rushing, arm strength, a sense of timing when things are on the line, a desire to have the final 2 minutes in his hands.

Cam is an ego, head case, no leadership just bragging, selfish superman.  His legs are done, we will see about his arm.

No one in football would trade Josh for Cam today.

[Ghost_002!]

?? How is Cam Newton a 

Head case? And if their careers ended today. Who actually had the better careers between QBs?

 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Ghost_002! said:

?? How is Cam Newton a 

Head case? And if their careers ended today. Who actually had the better careers between QBs?

 

 

Yea I think Cam gets a bad rep. Is he a bit of a diva at times? Sure. But he has never struck me as a bad teammate. And the answer to your second question is obvious, but clearly their careers don't end today.

[Locomark]

On 8/15/2020 at 5:06 AM, Inigo Montoya said:

I've seen several reports that Cam Newton looks like he is fully recovered from his injury / surgery and is throwing and moving well in the Pat's camp.  With Cam Newton being the QB Josh Allen is most often compared to, it will be interesting to watch those guys play each other two times this year.  Of course they don't really play each other with both being on offense, but the match up will be fun regardless.  How do the two teams QBs and teams match up head to head?  I put 8 categories down in no particular order and my opinion on which team/QB has the advantage.

 

1.) QB Rushing:   Advantage Bills/ Allen.  I think Josh has the edge here.  He is younger and his body is still in one piece.  Cam saw his career on life support last season because of the punishment his body has taken.  I think he might be a bit more conservative when it comes to running the ball going forward.  Allen is a major part of the Bills rushing offense and is likely to remain so.  Allen was responsible for 1 out of every 4 rushing yards last season and scored 9 of the offenses' 13 rushing TDs.  

 

2.) System Knowledge:  Advantage Bills/Allen.  This one seems pretty straightforward.  Allen is in the the same system year 3, Cam is in a new system with a truncated preseason.

 

3.) Coaching:  Advantage Pats/Cam.  I'm a big McDermott fan and he is getting better, but no one is Belichick's equal with in-game management.  He just doesn't make mistakes.  Bastard.

 

4.) Receiving Corps:  Advantage Bills/Allen.  The Bills offense clearly now has one of the most skilled WR1/2/3 sets in the NFL.  The Pats always had Tom who could elevate the play of whatever WRs they fielded, but fortunately those days are now over.  

 

5.) Running Backs:  Advantage Pats/Cam.  This is a hard one.  I think Singletary is a hell of a back and I think Moss is going to be great, but he has yet to take an NFL snap.  Behind those two are Yeldon, a rugby player, and Taiwan Jones.  There's a lot of potential with Singletary and Moss, but they are not there yet.  The Pats have James White, the best RB in the NFL that no one talks about, Sony Michel, Damien Harris, Lamar Miller, and Rex Burkhead / Brandon Bolden who are likely competing for the same roster spot.  If you add Josh Allen to the equation it might be different, but this is about RBs.

 

6.) Offensive Line:  Advantage Pats/Cam.   The Bills have closed the gap considerably and the Pats have lost their starting RT Marcus Cannon to a COVID19 opt out, but they will still return a top five O-Line in 2020. 

 

7.) QB Passing:   Advantage Pats/Cam.  I think at this point Cam is the more accomplished thrower.  If his shoulder is healthy and he can still throw with velocity, I think he has the edge here.  Cam's game has never been about pinpoint throwing accuracy, but his career completion percentage is a respectable 59.6%.  Allen's by contrast is 56.3%.  It's fair to note that Allen's percentage was much improved last year at 58.8%, and there are many other metrics beyond completion percentage that comes into play evaluating a QB's throwing ability, but I think it is fair to say that the onus is on Allen to improve as a passer and not Cam.

 

8.) Defense:  Advantage Bills/Allen.   You know that Belichick is always going to field a solid defense, but I'll give the lean to the BIlls because they are bringing back more of their defensive starters this year.  The Pats have lost more key players to free agency and COVID opt outs than the Bills have; Kyle Van Noy, Danny Shelton, Patrick Chung, Dont'a Hightower, and Jamie Collins.  The Bills lost some players to free agency/retirement but I think they did a better job plugging those holes this off season.  We have also only lost two players to COIVD opt outs, Star and Gaines. Many of our replacements on defense have played McDermott's system before.  That continuity will be especially important this year with no preseason.

 

The end result is a 4-4 tie.  I think the gap between the Bills and Pats has closed considerably.  These two teams in their totality are now pretty evenly matched with the BIlls moving up and the Pats falling back.  I think this season series will most likely end up with a 1-1 split.  If either team can sweep the series they will win the division.  Anyone who thinks the Pats are going to be an easy out this year is crazy.  I think both games will come down to the final possession.

 

 

I actually don’t feel Cam Newton is a better passer than Josh. He is so far removed from his high level of play days. He is a middling QB and is on the downward trajectory of his career. Josh is on the upward trajectory of his career. The Pats will be an easy out because they do not have the depth necessary to deal with injuries due to all the opt outs. The fact we don’t play them until mid season hurts them and helps us. By then there will be injuries and covid cases and we are the deeper team by far.. The Pats will be lucky to finish ahead of the Phins this year. Cam is getting much more love than he deserves because teams will double Edelman and make Cam beat them over the middle or on the ground. Teams will stack the box and make Cam air it out. They are not built for that.

Edited August 18, 2020 by Locomark

[C.Biscuit97]

34 minutes ago, Locomark said:

I actually don’t feel Cam Newton is a better passer than Josh. He is so far removed from his high level of play days. He is a middling QB and is on the downward trajectory of his career. Josh is on the upward trajectory of his career. The Pats will be an easy out because they do not have the depth necessary to deal with injuries due to all the opt outs. The fact we don’t play them until mid season hurts them and helps us. By then there will be injuries and covid cases and we are the deeper team by far.. The Pats will be lucky to finish ahead of the Phins this year. Cam is getting much more love than he deserves because teams will double Edelman and make Cam beat them over the middle or on the ground. Teams will stack the box and make Cam air it out. They are not built for that.

Cam completed 67% of his passes and was a MVP candidate before he hurt his shoulder in 2018.  This board badly underrates Cam.  He had Steve Smith his rookie year and complete trash since.  His numbers 1 have included Ted Ginn!!!, Kelvin “fat woman” Benjamin (great trade)!!!, Devin Funchess.  
 

if healthy and that’s a huge if at this point, he made NE much, much more dangerous.  

[Billl]

9 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Cam completed 67% of his passes and was a MVP candidate before he hurt his shoulder in 2018.  This board badly underrates Cam.  He had Steve Smith his rookie year and complete trash since.  His numbers 1 have included Ted Ginn!!!, Kelvin “fat woman” Benjamin (great trade)!!!, Devin Funchess.  
 

if healthy and that’s a huge if at this point, he made NE much, much more dangerous.  

The list of QBs that TBD thinks suck is littered with MVPs.

[Doc]

38 minutes ago, Billl said:

The list of QBs that TBD thinks suck is littered with MVPs.

 

Who else, besides Cam?

[JESSEFEFFER]

On 8/16/2020 at 6:28 PM, JESSEFEFFER said:

Cam had seasons in 2013, 2014 and 2017 that looked very much like Josh's did in 2019.  If you can point to anything in those years that Cam did better than Josh I'd be happy to discuss it.   

 

Cam played all 16 in 2017 so reaching all the way back to 2015 in an attempt to define what a healthy 2020 might look like is cherry picking at its finest.

 

I'd say the biggest difference I see is their reputations heading into those seasons.  So what you say is no contest I'd say looks like nearly identical production.

Ok, I'll answer.  Cam had 4 seasons of his nearly 8 full seasons that looked much the same as Josh in 2019.  Two before his MVP season and two after.  Josh is ascending (maybe) and Cam is healthy (maybe) so 2020 projections for them seem like a draw to me.  Most copied from Pro Football Reference.

 

                                                                        Four Years of Cam

Yr G   Cmp   Att   Cmp%   Yds   TD   TD%   Int   Int% 1D   Y/A   AY/A   Y/C   Y/G   Rate   Sk   Yds NY/A   ANY/A   Sk%   4QC   GWD 13 16   292   473   61.7   3379   24   5.1   13   2.7 172   7.1   6.9   11.6   211.2   88.8   43   336 5.9   5.69   8.3   4   4 14 14   262   448   58.5   3127   18   4   12   2.7 156   7   6.6   11.9   223.4   82.1   38   300 5.82   5.45   7.8   3   2 16 15   270   510   52.9   3509   19   3.7   14   2.7 173   6.9   6.4   13   233.9   75.8   36   277 5.92   5.46   6.6         17 16   291   492   59.1   3302   22   4.5   16   3.3 167   6.7   6.1   11.3   206.4   80.7   35   242 5.81   5.28   6.6   1   3       278.8   480.8   58.0   3329.3   20.8   4.3   13.8   2.9 167.0   6.9   6.5   11.9           38   288.8     5.47   7.3                                                                                             Yr G   Rush   Yds   TD   1D   Lng   Y/A   Y/G   A/G Fum   Fum/L                                           13 16   111   585   6   45   56   5.3   36.6   6.9 3   1                                           14 14   103   539   5   48   22   5.2   38.5   7.4 9   5                                           16 15   90   359   5   28   28   4   23.9   6 3   2                                           17 16   139   754   6   46   69   5.4   47.1   8.7 9   1                                                 110.8   559.3   5.5   41.8   43.8   5.0   36.7   7.3 6.0   2.3

 

                                                                    Year Two for Josh Allen

Yr G   Cmp   Att   Cmp%   Yds   TD   TD%   Int   Int% 1D   Y/A   AY/A   Y/C   Y/G   Rate   Sk   Yds NY/A   ANY/A   Sk%   4QC   GWD 19 16   271   461   58.8   3089   20   4.3   9   2.0 146   6.7   6.7   11.4   193.1   85.3   38   237 5.72   5.71   7.6   4   5                                                                                                                                                                         Yr G   Rush   Yds   TD   1D   Lng   Y/A   Y/G   A/G Fum   Fum/L                                           19 16   109   510   9   42   36   4.7   31.9   6.8 14   4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                    

 

 

 

Edited August 20, 2020 by JESSEFEFFER

[HappyDays]

 

[P Riv]

On 8/19/2020 at 8:58 AM, HappyDays said:

 

Apparently Newton is staring to emerge as the front runner based on this week's results.  

 

[Dopey]

On 8/15/2020 at 9:17 AM, 1ManRaid said:

Michel isn't expected to be ready week 1.

 

So the Pats RB advantage is based on an injury prone guy coming off a surgery and probably won't be ready to go anyways, and another guy coming off missing a whole year due to injury signed to a 1 year deal to fill in the first injured guy.

 

Over Devin's 5.1 ypc and Zack Moss.

 

Gotcha.

A 2nd yr rb who drops to many passes, only scored two tds last year and missed 4 games. Plus a rookie, Taiwan Jones and a rugby player. 

Oh, wait, we have TJ Yeldon.

 

 

Gotcha.

[Stank_Nasty]

Worth mentioning that Mike Giardi reported this morning on GMFB that Cam hasn’t been impressive on the traditional pats quick release types of throws. Claimed he has been all over the place with them. 
 

I said it before and I’ll say it again. I’d love to see Newton try to “white“ and “Edelman” us the whole way down the field. The dude goes to NE and all of a sudden the the majority of the media forgets he’s not an accurate QB. 

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Worth mentioning that Mike Giardi reported this morning on GMFB that Cam hasn’t been impressive on the traditional pats quick release types of throws. Claimed he has been all over the place with them. 
 

I said it before and I’ll say it again. I’d love to see Newton try to “white“ and “Edelman” us the whole way down the field. The dude goes to NE and all of a sudden the the majority of the media forgets he’s not an accurate QB. 

 

I said it before and I'll say it again.  If newton can't make those throws Edelman will get so frustrated he will be chucking his helmet all over the sidelines.

[Big Turk]

As far as I know we have beaten Newton every time we have played him so far.

[Ghost_002!]

Emm...its Aug 25th...when do the bills face the pats? Got a ways to go.

 

[C.Biscuit97]

22 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Worth mentioning that Mike Giardi reported this morning on GMFB that Cam hasn’t been impressive on the traditional pats quick release types of throws. Claimed he has been all over the place with them. 
 

I said it before and I’ll say it again. I’d love to see Newton try to “white“ and “Edelman” us the whole way down the field. The dude goes to NE and all of a sudden the the majority of the media forgets he’s not an accurate QB. 

He completed 67% of his passes his last healthy season. 

22 hours ago, matter2003 said:

As far as I know we have beaten Newton every time we have played him so far.

Thank God for EJ!!!

[Stank_Nasty]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He completed 67% of his passes his last healthy season. 

Thank God for EJ!!!

right. we should probably just go off of that and not a huge sample size of work. good call. I'm honestly surprised it took you this long to come to his defense once i tossed this thread back onto the front page yesterday.

Edited August 26, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[GunnerBill]

22 hours ago, matter2003 said:

As far as I know we have beaten Newton every time we have played him so far.

 

Wrong. He beat us McDermott's second game here. It felt like a game we were going to win and then Tyrod and Zay contrived not to.

[Big Turk]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Wrong. He beat us McDermott's second game here. It felt like a game we were going to win and then Tyrod and Zay contrived not to.

 

Oh yeah I forgot that one...I remember us beating him on the last play which was going to be a Hail Mary attempt by Newton and Schwartz brought pressure and sacked him to end the game

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Oh yeah I forgot that one...I remember us beating him on the last play which was going to be a Hail Mary attempt by Newton and Schwartz brought pressure and sacked him to end the game

 

We didn't play him the Schwartz year. Not in the regular season anyway. Think we played them in pre-season. 

 

We have played Cam twice. In Buffalo in 2013 - the EJ game.

 

In Carolina in 2017. McDermott's first year, lost but had the play to win and messed it up.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Stank_Nasty said:

right. we should probably just go off of that and not a huge sample size of work. good call. 

 

So while I do have some scepticism about his fit in that offense based on historical trends the last season that @C.Biscuit97 references isn't completely without relevance here because it was when they brought Norv in and tried to establish more of a short, quick hitting passing game rather than the hold the ball and downfield passing offense that Mike Shula had favoured. It is the closest he has ever been to a system such as the one New England will ask him to run in terms of the types of throw he was asked to make. The difference is New England's offense really does require precision because he still had some guys who could throw down the field too with speed. DJ Moore, Jarius Wright, Torrey Smith etc... New England doesn't have those speedy downfield gamebreakers so defenses will sit on everything and the windows for those crossers and hitches etc are going to be tiny. The slightest bit off target it isn't just an incompletion it is a potential interception.

[Stank_Nasty]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So while I do have some scepticism about his fit in that offense based on historical trends the last season that @C.Biscuit97 references isn't completely without relevance here because it was when they brought Norv in and tried to establish more of a short, quick hitting passing game rather than the hold the ball and downfield passing offense that Mike Shula had favoured. It is the closest he has ever been to a system such as the one New England will ask him to run in terms of the types of throw he was asked to make. The difference is New England's offense really does require precision because he still had some guys who could throw down the field too with speed. DJ Moore, Jarius Wright, Torrey Smith etc... New England doesn't have those speedy downfield gamebreakers so defenses will sit on everything and the windows for those crossers and hitches etc are going to be tiny. The slightest bit off target it isn't just an incompletion it is a potential interception.

This is a nice solid point. I, just like you, am still a skeptic. But what your saying here holds some merit. On the other hand "He threw for 67% that one year" without any context doesnt do it for me. Thats sort of what i was getting at.

[Doc]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He completed 67% of his passes his last healthy season.

 

He was also 6-8.