Devin Singletary YPA vs 8Man box

[GoBills808]

Recently @thebandit27 @Blokestradamus and I had a discussion about Singletary's sparkling 5.1 yards per carry (good for 4th in the league for qualifying RBs). The point of contention was that his average was inflated due to seeing a very low amount of 8man boxes, as illustrated by the NFL's NextGen stats ranking him dead last among RBs facing such defenses at a rate of only 5.3% of his total carries. For reference, Tevin Coleman faced the highest amount of 8man at 40.15% of his rushes. 

 

That is a large discrepancy. Singletary had 151 total attempts last season, and some quick math says he only faced what NextGen refers to as an '8 man box' eight times throughout the season. If true, that could explain his high YPA...he was getting carries vs nickel and taking advantage of some good playcalling from Daboll. Not having anything better to do I pulled up his highlight reel (more on this later) to see what it showed. Examples below-

 

...one of his first carries against the Jets, went for 21 yards. 

 

 another carry against the Jets, this one went for 13.

 

 

 gained 14 yards here

 

more to follow

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by GoBills808
-NextGen stats are a product of the NFL and not ESPN

[John from Riverside]

Good stuff!

[GoBills808]

 this one went for 14

 

 gained 16 yards on this play

 

 he ran for 9 yards here

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

So he is good? Glad my eyes are not betraying me.

[GoBills808]

 gained 7 yards on this play

 

 and finally cause my computer didn't like all these photos- gained 15 yards on the ground

 

...to recap- these are 8 examples of Singletary rushing against an 8 man box. Theoretically (according to NextGen stats) this is all the rushes he had vs such fronts. Except I know that can't be the case since his YPA on these rushes was a sterling 13.25 and according to the aforementioned posters his YPA was inflated by the lack of facing 8 men in the box. 

 

From this we can surmise A- NextGen stats and I have a different definition of 8men in the box (totally possible- as we know the nextgen stats are computed via chip in players helmets/pads so they may not set off close enough to LOS, but cmon...these are definitely 8 man fronts by any stretch, majority run downs as well) as well as B- they might have calculated Singletary's 5.3% vs 8men in the box very low (because these are simply from his highlight reel as referenced above, I don't have the energy to go through every single snap) ie calculated it incorrectly and finally C-unless he lost a TON of yards on a BUNCH of other attempts vs 8man fronts (possible but imo wildly unlikely enough to bring down a 13.25 ypa) then the idea that his overall YPA was inflated due to facing an inordinately small percentage of 8 man fronts is simply incorrect.

Edited April 24, 2020 by GoBills808
-NextGen stats are a product of the NFL and not ESPN

[MJS]

Don't need to convert me. The kid is special. Watching his highlight reel and the number of eye popping runs shows me he will have a very bright future.

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

ESPN did not project DS to be a top-quality RB.  Therefore, there has to be some made-up BS reason why he is not a top-quality RB. 

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 gained 7 yards on this play

 

 and finally cause my computer didn't like all these photos- gained 15 yards on the ground

 

...to recap- these are 8 examples of Singletary rushing against an 8 man box. Theoretically (according to NextGen stats) this is all the rushes he had vs such fronts. Except I know that can't be the case since his YPA on these rushes was a sterling 13.25 and according to the aforementioned posters his YPA was inflated by the lack of facing 8 men in the box. 

 

From this we can surmise A- ESPN and I have a different definition of 8men in the box (totally possible- as we know the nextgen stats are computed via chip in players helmets/pads so they may not set off close enough to LOS, but cmon...these are definitely 8 man fronts by any stretch, majority run downs as well) as well as B- they might have calculated Singletary's 5.3% vs 8men in the box very low (because these are simply from his highlight reel as referenced above, I don't have the energy to go through every single snap) ie calculated it incorrectly and finally C-unless he lost a TON of yards on a BUNCH of other attempts vs 8man fronts (possible but imo wildly unlikely enough to bring down a 13.25 ypa) then the idea that his overall YPA was inflated due to facing an inordinately small percentage of 8 man fronts is simply incorrect.

Would he really have to lose a TON of yards?

 

Could we maybe argue D - drawing any kind of conclusion from 8 plays is silly?

[Buffalo716]

 7-8 in the box is standard in the NFL

 

9 in the box is considered stacked

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Would he really have to lose a TON of yards?

 

Could we maybe argue D - drawing any kind of conclusion from 8 plays is silly?

Of course, which is why I specifically chose 8 plays: that's the amount that (according to NextGen stats) he faced an 8 man front all season

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

 7-8 in the box is standard in the NFL

 

9 in the box is considered stacked

ESPECIALLY true against a run heavy team like the Bills

[FireChans]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Of course, which is why I specifically chose 8 plays: that's the amount that (according to NextGen stats) he faced an 8 man front all season

Right. But you’re still trying to draw a conclusion from those 8 plays, just the opposite one. So that’s the same problem.

 

A better way to make any kind of comparison. How many 8 man fronts do RB’s in the NFL face on average? How well do RB’s in the NFL do against 8 man fronts vs not? If all RBs in the NFL, all 10000 carries or whatever, do significantly worse against 8 man boxes and ALSO saw significantly more 8 man boxes than Devin on average, that would support he was likely benefitted from not facing those boxes this year, despite those 8 carries above.

[maryland-bills-fan]

This is true.  They brought in Gore for those "need one yard for a TD or 1st down" plays.  Singletary ran a lot on 1st down, when the DE were wide to contain Allen and the defense had to defend against both pass and run.   The coaches were good. You set up every play to get the max yardage and most of the time it works.  But Singletary didn't have many plays were 3 yards got the first down, which would bring down his averge.

 

Also, the Bills played very conservative when they had a lead and at the end of the season.  If they were ahead in score and in a 3rd and 25,  they would often run a safe running play with Singletary, rather than risk a pick-6 or an incomplete.   So a 15 yard run padded Singletary's yards per carry, but didn't get a first down.  The other team would concede the unsuccessful run for NO first down.  The Bills would be okay with getting 15 more yard of field position before the punt and with taking a minute off the clock.

 

I have never been a fan of "how good his yards per carry" is as a measure of how good he is.  Total yards, for the primary runner is the metric there.  He was #22 in that (#17 if you gave him his average for the 4 games he missed as injured).  That is not good enough if you are going to use your RB as a weapon to beat other teams. It is okay if you just want to look good an flirt with the playoffs.

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

Right. But you’re still trying to draw a conclusion from those 8 plays, just the opposite one. So that’s the same problem.

 

A better way to make any kind of comparison. How many 8 man fronts do RB’s in the NFL face on average? How well do RB’s in the NFL do against 8 man fronts vs not? If all RBs in the NFL, all 10000 carries or whatever, do significantly worse against 8 man boxes and ALSO saw significantly more 8 man boxes than Devin on average, that would support he was likely benefitted from not facing those boxes this year, despite those 8 carries above.

Yes, these questions are supposedly answered by the Nextgen stats...which was kind of the point of the exercise.

 

If the plays above are the 8 times all year he faced an 8man front, he was actually more effective against it than his average attempt. If they're not, then ESPN's calculating their 8man box very differently than what that defense looks like traditionally. As it stands, I see little evidence suggesting either is incorrect.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

He’s excellent. No need to punch holes in it. Give him the ball as much as possible 

[Prickly Pete]

He is a superstar in waiting. Just give him the ball.

[FireChans]

14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yes, these questions are supposedly answered by the Nextgen stats...which was kind of the point of the exercise.

 

If the plays above are the 8 times all year he faced an 8man front, he was actually more effective against it than his average attempt. If they're not, then ESPN's calculating their 8man box very differently than what that defense looks like traditionally. As it stands, I see little evidence suggesting either is incorrect.

Yes, if you believe that 8 plays is indicative of anything. Which I don’t.

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

Yes, if you believe that 8 plays is indicative of anything. Which I don’t.

ESPN says he only faced an 8 man box 8 times. If these are the 8 times then I think it's fair to draw some conclusions from 100% sample size.

[Prickly Pete]

38 minutes ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

ESPN did not project DS to be a top-quality RB.  Therefore, there has to be some made-up BS reason why he is not a top-quality RB. 

 

 

Because of social media, opinions are now widely spread, and easily archived and researched, combine that with needing to have a "strong take" to bait clicks,  (just like in politics) no one wants to move on, or admit they were wrong. They can't move on because their previous "take" or opinion is right there, haunting them. They will cling to the merest thread of an argument (or even none at all).

 

I think it's ***** up society at large.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by 32ABBA

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

ESPN says he only faced an 8 man box 8 times. If these are the 8 times then I think it's fair to draw some conclusions from 100% sample size.

You don’t calculate sample size from its own set lol. You’d make a statistician’s head explode right now.

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

You don’t calculate sample size from its own set lol. You’d make a statistician’s head explode right now.

Sorry, 1000% sample size

[JerseyBills]

41 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

So he is good? Glad my eyes are not betraying me.

Veryyyy

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Sorry, 1000% sample size

Drawing a conclusion from 5% of a players plays is always a losing proposition.

[Prickly Pete]

Just watch the ***** games....he's damn good.

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

Drawing a conclusion from 5% of a players plays is always a losing proposition.

I don't disagree. This was a particular conversation regarding certain specific aspects of Singletary's overall game, his propensity to face an inordinately low % of 8man fronts included.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't disagree. This was a particular conversation regarding certain specific aspects of Singletary's overall game, his propensity to face an inordinately low % of 8man fronts included.

That honestly must be an error. It makes no sense.

[thebandit27]

I feel that there are two things to mention here:

1) I didn’t say that he wasn’t good. I said that his YPC was inflated.

2) I also pointed out that he not only faced  the fewest 8-man boxes, but also averaged nearly 3 seconds behind the LOS per carry. 
 

Those two factors combined contribute to an inflated YPC.

 

I didn’t say he sucks. I didn’t even say he wasn’t good. But of course people see anything that resembles not lauding the kid for being the best thing ever and they freak.

[BurpleBull]

43 minutes ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

ESPN did not project DS to be a top-quality RB.  Therefore, there has to be some made-up BS reason why he is not a top-quality RB. 

 

Rather, some made up BS that explains away his success. 

[Tesla03]

It’s criminal how little we used Singletary late in games when Daboll abandoned the run 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

That honestly must be an error. It makes no sense.

It was used with such conviction though

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I feel that there are two things to mention here:

1) I didn’t say that he wasn’t good. I said that his YPC was inflated.

2) I also pointed out that he not only faced  the fewest 8-man boxes, but also averaged nearly 3 seconds behind the LOS per carry. 
 

Those two factors combined contribute to an inflated YPC.

 

I didn’t say he sucks. I didn’t even say he wasn’t good. But of course people see anything that resembles not lauding the kid for being the best thing ever and they freak.

Are you prepared to say that maybe he faced more than 8 carries against 8man fronts?

 

Do you understand how averaging a high amount of time behind the LOS is NOT really a good argument for an 'inflated' YPC?

[Blokestradamus]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I feel that there are two things to mention here:

1) I didn’t say that he wasn’t good. I said that his YPC was inflated.

2) I also pointed out that he not only faced  the fewest 8-man boxes, but also averaged nearly 3 seconds behind the LOS per carry. 
 

Those two factors combined contribute to an inflated YPC.

 

I didn’t say he sucks. I didn’t even say he wasn’t good. But of course people see anything that resembles not lauding the kid for being the best thing ever and they freak.

 

I just provided a link and now I think the kid is god awful. What a world.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

It was used with such conviction though

Are you prepared to say that maybe he faced more than 8 carries against 8man fronts?

 

Do you understand how averaging a high amount of time behind the LOS is NOT really a good argument for an 'inflated' YPC?

Take it up with NextGen jrober 

[GoBills808]

Just now, Blokestradamus said:

 

I just provided a link and now I think the kid is god awful. What a world.

Still think he only faced 8man fronts 5.3% of the time?

[FireChans]

Just now, Blokestradamus said:

 

I just provided a link and now I think the kid is god awful. What a world.

We need to trade up for Taylor and let Singletary only play special teams. Maybe if his 2nd Gen stats prove he’s good on Punt Block, he can return a punt if Andre Roberts goes down.

[GoBills808]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

Take it up with NextGen jrober 

I did you one better and provided film. 

 

Would you care to elaborate or simply throw insults around

[Blokestradamus]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Still think he only faced 8man fronts 5.3% of the time?

 

I wasn't taking notes last year, I just showed you the link to what Bandit referenced.

 

I'll have a look at the meat of your post tomorrow and see if I agree with your analysis.

[thebandit27]

12 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I did you one better and provided film. 

 

Would you care to elaborate or simply throw insults around

You showed still shots that are supposed to prove that you’re right and the outfit that gets paid to produce the numbers league-wide is wrong. Sorry, I’m going with the league.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

You showed still shots that are supposed to prove that you’re right and the outfit that gets paid to produce the numbers league-wide is wrong. Sorry, I’m going with the league.

I acknowledged the possibility of ESPN having a different definition of '8 men in the box' due to how they gather their data via sensors in the OP. But imo the stills I put up are perfectly appropriate examples of traditional 8man fronts taken either immediately pre or post snap...I'm obviously trying to have an honest discussion or I wouldn't have gone through the trouble. 

 

You contend that these 8 plays are the entirety of the 5.3% of carries vs 8man fronts ESPN calculated for Singletary?

[gobills404]

 

[The Dean]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Yes, if you believe that 8 plays is indicative of anything. Which I don’t.

 

For the record, if he only had 8 plays and you looked at ALL of them, it isn't a "sample" it's a "census". And sample sizes don't mean anything when you have a verified census.

[YattaOkasan]

Just to note he can be both 

1) Really good against a small sample set of 8 man boxes (thus not holding back his YPC).

2) Still faced a few number of 8 man boxes and have his YPC drop if he faced more.  

 

His vision and contact balance is still so amazing.  Cover 1 did the Pittsburgh game and while the fumbles were rough some of his vision is insane (he jump cuts away from a guy coming from behind him; how?).