Big Board ratings of running backs in the top 100

[maryland-bills-fan]

Just for interest to see how some Big Boards rate the running backs. I think these rankings are better than my opinion about the relative merits and draft values of the players and would be of interest to people concerning the economic and value use of our 2nd and third round pick.

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/prospect-rankings

18   Dobbins

23   Swift

25   Taylor

37   Helaire

76   Moss

84   Gibson

88   Benjamin

Akens not listed   correction   #41 in this board

https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/04/19/draft-big-board-updated-top-255-prospects

23   Swift

29   Taylor

33   Dobbins

44   Heliare

66   Akers

88   Moss

106  Benjamin

107  Gibson

https://walterfootball.com/nfldraftbigboard

14   Swift

17   Taylor

32   Helaire

46   Akers

48   Moss

50   Dobbins

77   Dillon

92   Perine

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2020/04/nfl-mock-draft-2020-see-the-composite-big-board-featuring-the-top-100-prospects.html

The rankings used for this year’s big board come from NFL.com’s Gil Brandt from April 13, Pro Football Focus from April 14, USA Today Draft Wire’s Luke Easterling from April 17, NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah from April 20 and SB Nation’s Dan Kadar from April 21.

29   Swift

38   Taylor

49   Dobbins

49   Helaire

65   Akers

77   Moss

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl/big_board

33   Swift

45   Taylor

48   Dobbins5

51   Helaire

65   Akers

80   Moss

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2020/04/17/2020-nfl-draft-rankings-big-board-top-300/3/

17   2Taylor  

21   Swift

42   Dobbins

47   Akers

49   Helaire

59   Moss

 

Overall averages for the top RB

24   Swift

28   Taylor

44   Hilaire

48   Dobbins

....Bills pick at #54

55   Akers   still at 55

71 Moss

...Bills pick at #86

Edited April 24, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[DCOrange]

FYI Akers is 41 on TDN

[Rochesterfan]

It will be interesting because that is where they rank - yet most experts think at most 1 RB in RD 1 and maybe none.  
 

RBs as a position drop significantly in the draft and QBs are pushed up.  RBs are an undervalued position because having a top back - like the Giants, Cleveland, and Dallas - does not get you into the playoffs.  
 

QBs are pushed up because they are so much more important.  Same with DE, OT, CB - more premium positions.

 

The draft values on RBs are useless because the position as a whole is the least valued position in the game.  UDFA like in Denver can come in and be just as good or better than high round draft picks. 
 

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Rochesterfan

[BuffaloHokie13]

I'm higher on them, but generally the same result as your conclusion. 

17 Swift

24 Taylor 

29 Dobbins 

36 Edwards-Helaire 

55 Akers

76 Moss

 

We also pick at 128, and I've got 

113 Darrynton Evans 

127 Ke'Shawn Vaughn 

131 Eno Benjamin 

[TPS]

The AThletic has a Consensus Big Board that compiles the numbers using 50-60 boards, and with the exception of Dobbins, you're close:

22 Swift

27 Taylor

29  Dobbins

45  CEH

57 Akers

76  Moss

 

[ALLEN1QB]

I just think there is no chance Bills take a RB @ 54. If a big name receiver drops to them that they can't say no to or they go defense. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

FYI Akers is 41 on TDN

Must have missed it. thanks.

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

It will be interesting because that is where they rank - yet most experts think at most 1 RB in RD 1 and maybe none.  
 

RBs as a position drop significantly in the draft and QBs are pushed up.  RBs are an undervalued position because having a top back - like the Giants, Cleveland, and Dallas - does not get you into the playoffs.  
 

QBs are pushed up because they are so much more important.  Same with DE, OT, CB - more premium positions.

 

The draft values on RBs are useless because the position as a whole is the least valued position in the game.  UDFA like in Denver can come in and be just as good or better than high round draft picks. 
 

 

Well, teams that are struggling to get into the playoff...maybe they draft a RB high because it is the best pick to get the best and quickest improvement?   And yes,  low draft picks in CB, WR and offensive line often perform better than high draft picks.  And you point is??

[maryland-bills-fan]

I would be happy with any of the top 4 at #54 or with some sort of move up.  Akers, because of the o-line problems and quirky offense scheme could be a bust or could be better than his ranking.  He has more risk.   We lack a RB who is a good WR and Swift, E-H and Dobbins are good as a wide out (Swift & E-H) and pass catcher (Dobbins).   They would be my choice, but they might be gone.  Anyway, if we take one of the top 4, I would not consider it a reach.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

I would love to get one of those top 4 at 54, but if they feel one of the EDGE rushers or premium WR's are there, then we should probably take them and go after either Devonta Freeman,  Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Crowell, Montgomery or Chris Thompson in that order and draft the best RB left in the 3rd or 4th.

[Just Joshin']

Dobbins @#6 on the Walter rankings is a farce.

[DJB]

1. J.K Dobbins
2. D Swift
3. J Taylor
4. C Edwards-Helaire
5. C Akers
6. AJ Dillon
7. Z Moss
8. J Kelly
9. K Vaughn
10. A Gibson
11. L Perine
12. D Evan's
13. A McFarland 
14. D Dallas
15. M Warren

16. E Benjamin

[hjnick]

AJ Dillon not in the top 100...

 

Pick this dude in the 4th/5th round.

[gonzo1105]

I see a ton of A.J. Dillon love around here.

 

i can already see it now, 3rd round passes, people scream for Dillon, 4th round passes still no Dillon, 5th round, cmon man we gotta be taking Dillon here he’s fallen so far!

 

Someone takes him in the 6,7th , or goes undrafted. Can’t believe we didn’t take that guy he’s a stud. Cut in training camp by 1 of 32 teams. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

4 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

I would love to get one of those top 4 at 54, but if they feel one of the EDGE rushers or premium WR's are there, then we should probably take them and go after either Devonta Freeman,  Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Crowell, Montgomery or Chris Thompson in that order and draft the best RB left in the 3rd or 4th.

premium edge rushers will not last to #54.   Projects,  hopes and development players will be there.  We will NOT get somebody who will start this season.

 

 

 

 

4 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

I would love to get one of those top 4 at 54, but if they feel one of the EDGE rushers or premium WR's are there, then we should probably take them and go after either Devonta Freeman,  Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Crowell, Montgomery or Chris Thompson in that order and draft the best RB left in the 3rd or 4th.

And we will go into a late season game with a chance to make the playoffs.  The field is covered with snow, the snow is coming in horizontal, the score is 3 to 7 and wide receivers are elephants walking on slipper ice.  We might have a 4th round RB, playing against a 1st or 2nd round pick.  There is maybe a 1 in 8 chance that we have the better RB on the field. ....   WTF. !!!!

Edited April 23, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[BuffaloHokie13]

5 hours ago, TPS said:

The AThletic has a Consensus Big Board that compiles the numbers using 50-60 boards, and with the exception of Dobbins, you're close:

22 Swift

27 Taylor

29  Dobbins

45  CEH

57 Akers

76  Moss

 

my rankings are pretty close to consensus it seems. Spot on for dobbins and moss. Unfortunately that probably means I'm way off...

[Bob in STL]

It is interesting.  I grew up in the 60=70's and RB was one of the most critical positions.  Teams had a starting halfback (speed) and a fullback (power).  Go back to the 50's and early 60's and teams had two halfbacks and a fullback, one halfback was really a wing back (also called a flanker) that could line up on either side and be used as a receiver  - this eventually evolved into a full time "wide receiver". 

 

Today the defenses are so much faster (and better) that the game has change to predominantly passing with the 3 receiver and one tailback (no fullback)  formation as  the norm.  

 

There are a lot of very good backs to pick from.  I suspect we draft one in the 3rd round but either the 2nd or 4th would not be a surprise.  I would like whoever we pick to be more of a power runner than Singletary, and have the ability to pass block, then release and catch short passes that can be turned into big gains.  Josh needs this to get out of a play when the downfield reads are not there. 

 

Even without a #1 this is a very interesting draft.  Our confidence in Beane and his staff makes it so. 

 

[Shaw66]

6 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

It will be interesting because that is where they rank - yet most experts think at most 1 RB in RD 1 and maybe none.  
 

RBs as a position drop significantly in the draft and QBs are pushed up.  RBs are an undervalued position because having a top back - like the Giants, Cleveland, and Dallas - does not get you into the playoffs.  
 

QBs are pushed up because they are so much more important.  Same with DE, OT, CB - more premium positions.

 

The draft values on RBs are useless because the position as a whole is the least valued position in the game.  UDFA like in Denver can come in and be just as good or better than high round draft picks. 
 

 

I agree with you generally, and that kind of thinking leads to this:

 

Beane says, and I believe him, that he goes strictly BPA in the first couple of rounds.   If I understand what he does, his rankings of BPA are not generally position rated.   So if the running backs actually have big board ratings like that, and if GMs generally agree with you, those running backs will fall, and they will begin to stick out as the BPA on the board.    What does Beane do when he sees a clear BPA falling, and that guy is at a position of need?  Beane has told us that is exactly the situation where he will look to trade up.   

 

So if these lists are more or less correct and Beane sees a Dobbins, Swift or Taylor falling into the second round and Beane thinks he's a fit, Beane will be looking to move up.  

[Rochesterfan]

12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with you generally, and that kind of thinking leads to this:

 

Beane says, and I believe him, that he goes strictly BPA in the first couple of rounds.   If I understand what he does, his rankings of BPA are not generally position rated.   So if the running backs actually have big board ratings like that, and if GMs generally agree with you, those running backs will fall, and they will begin to stick out as the BPA on the board.    What does Beane do when he sees a clear BPA falling, and that guy is at a position of need?  Beane has told us that is exactly the situation where he will look to trade up.   

 

So if these lists are more or less correct and Beane sees a Dobbins, Swift or Taylor falling into the second round and Beane thinks he's a fit, Beane will be looking to move up.  

I agree it will be interesting.  I think they build those boards on athletic modeling and RBs tend to model well.  When it gets to how the GMs rate them - my guess is there are many factors that pull into that and position is part of that.  
 

Based on everything Beane has said over the last several years with regards to the draft - if he has similar rankings and one of those guys is available and is head and shoulders above others - he will take him.  
 

If Beane has the RB and a CB, OT, or DE available with similar grades at 54 - then he has stated he looks at positional depth both on the team and on the board.  If he looks at the information they have put together and thinks they can get less drop off at RB with a 3rd or 4th round selection because there is more depth in the draft at that position - I would guess he would take a BPA at a position with less draft depth.

 

The hard part is we will never know exactly what his board or his reasoning is.

 

I think the general prevailing ideas around the league is that if there is elite talent (Barkley/Elliott) you take that high - other than that you wait until they are far and away the best talent on the board because even elite RBs barely move a win/loss meter.  I think Buffalo may be in a good position for that train of thought.  
 

Most teams seem to subscribe to the have 3 or 4 guys and don’t worry at all about where you got them.  KC had a terrible running back group and they were Super Bowl Champs, SF running back by committee, NE last year had 4/5 RBs to handle the load.  The Rams had Gurley (big time lead back) and replaced him with a mid season street FA to get to the Super Bowl.  
 

If the Bills get a guy that falls to them and is highly ranked great, if not the difference with a 3rd, 4th, 5th round guy will be very small - the fit is more important for this team.

[TPS]

2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

my rankings are pretty close to consensus it seems. Spot on for dobbins and moss. Unfortunately that probably means I'm way off...

It's an interesting piece.  Here's the link if you have a subscription: https://theathletic.com/1758405/2020/04/20/2020-consensus-big-board-top-300-nfl-draft-prospects/

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

I would love to get one of those top 4 at 54, but if they feel one of the EDGE rushers or premium WR's are there, then we should probably take them and go after either Devonta Freeman,  Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Crowell, Montgomery or Chris Thompson in that order and draft the best RB left in the 3rd or 4th.

Which edge rushers do you speak of?

 

edit:  I feel the only edge rusher I’d be happy with at 54 is Uche and he’s more of a LB/situational pass rusher, similar to Lorax

Edited April 23, 2020 by NewEra

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Which edge rushers do you speak of?

 

edit:  I feel the only edge rusher I’d be happy with at 54 is Uche and he’s more of a LB/situational pass rusher, similar to Lorax

Uche, Lewis, Okwara and Weaver has all been mocked to us at various points and various boards. If the Bills have a love fest for one of these guys and they are sitting at #54, then they may pull the trigger over an RB.  Personally I'd love me some Dobbins, CEH or Swift if for some reason they fall to us in Rd 2. 

[NewEra]

Just now, BillsRdue said:

Uche, Lewis, Okwara and Weaver has all been mocked to us at various points and various boards. If the Bills have a love fest for one of these guys and they are sitting at #54, then they may pull the trigger over an RB.  Personally I'd love me some Dobbins, CEH or Swift if for some reason they fall to us in Rd 2. 

I’d be ok drafting Darrell Taylor too, but I think he’ll be gone.

 

Really hope the bolded aren’t our pick at 54.  None worthy imo. I’d much rather wait and grab a Greenard, Robinson,  Zuniga, Highsmith.  
 

I feel the difference between those top 5 RBs and the field is MUCH greater than those bolded and the field.  
 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

Who is Zuniga?    Somehow every big board has those guys ranked before #54 yet somebody who is

LATEST DRAFT RANKINGS             https://247sports.com/college/florida/Article/Jabari-Zuniga-2020-NFL-Draft-profile-and-rankings-from-Florida-Gators-Football-145312479/

-

Quote

 

No. 95 overall prospect - CBSSports.com
- No. 120 overall prospect - The Draft Network
- No. 121 overall prospect - ESPN.com
- No. 6 edge prospect - Drafttek.com
- No. 14 defensive end prospect - WalterFootball.com

is better than a guy 50 or 100 slots better.

 

 

Every hear of reaching?    Ever hear of "drafting for need" ( and is the 6th DE going to even get on the field- as if that is a need)

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by maryland-bills-fan

[NewEra]

11 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

 

Overall averages for the top RB

24   Swift

28   Taylor

44   Hilaire

48   Dobbins

....Bills pick at #54

55   Akers

71 Moss

...Bills pick at #86

This is why I really hope we land a rb in rd 2.  
 

I believe a RB will have the biggest impact on our 2020 and 2021 success

[maryland-bills-fan]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

This is why I really hope we land a rb in rd 2.  
 

I believe a RB will have the biggest impact on our 2020 and 2021 success

Quote

Overall averages for the top RB

24   Swift

28   Taylor

44   Hilaire

48   Dobbins

....Bills pick at #54

55   Akers

71 Moss

..Bills pick at #86

. Oh,  I see that this chart could be looked at a different way.  I was showing where the Bills picks were. You could also intreprete it as to where I thought the Bills should pick.

[TigerJ]

I'm pretty certain that a RB will be available at #54 who would be regarded as a great value with regards to multiple big boards.

[JESSEFEFFER]

11 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

I agree it will be interesting.  I think they build those boards on athletic modeling and RBs tend to model well.  When it gets to how the GMs rate them - my guess is there are many factors that pull into that and position is part of that.  
 

Based on everything Beane has said over the last several years with regards to the draft - if he has similar rankings and one of those guys is available and is head and shoulders above others - he will take him.  
 

If Beane has the RB and a CB, OT, or DE available with similar grades at 54 - then he has stated he looks at positional depth both on the team and on the board.  If he looks at the information they have put together and thinks they can get less drop off at RB with a 3rd or 4th round selection because there is more depth in the draft at that position - I would guess he would take a BPA at a position with less draft depth.

 

The hard part is we will never know exactly what his board or his reasoning is.

 

I think the general prevailing ideas around the league is that if there is elite talent (Barkley/Elliott) you take that high - other than that you wait until they are far and away the best talent on the board because even elite RBs barely move a win/loss meter.  I think Buffalo may be in a good position for that train of thought.  
 

Most teams seem to subscribe to the have 3 or 4 guys and don’t worry at all about where you got them.  KC had a terrible running back group and they were Super Bowl Champs, SF running back by committee, NE last year had 4/5 RBs to handle the load.  The Rams had Gurley (big time lead back) and replaced him with a mid season street FA to get to the Super Bowl.  
 

If the Bills get a guy that falls to them and is highly ranked great, if not the difference with a 3rd, 4th, 5th round guy will be very small - the fit is more important for this team.

I think you make the wrong point about Gurley.  He was probably their best offensive player in 2017 and 2018 when he scored 40 tds and had almost 4000 yds from scrimmage.

 

His knee problems at the end of 2018 really hurt their Superbowl chances.  If he had shared the load more those years maybe he doesn't break down at the end.  He was a huge reason why they got there and their offense hasn't been the same since.

Edited April 24, 2020 by JESSEFEFFER

[Happy Days Lois & Clark]

I’d wait on getting a back. Using a high pick on rb’s in back to back years after Singletary busted out over 5ypc doesn’t make sense to me. The Bills could use youth/ starters at other positions which can be under rookie deals for 4 more years.

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 hours ago, Happy Days Lois & Clark said:

I’d wait on getting a back. Using a high pick on rb’s in back to back years after Singletary busted out over 5ypc doesn’t make sense to me. The Bills could use youth/ starters at other positions which can be under rookie deals for 4 more years.

I look at total yards rushing and receiving.  D.Dawkings should be playing wideout.   He has the best TD percent for all receivers in the league last year.

 

[billspro]

22 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I see a ton of A.J. Dillon love around here.

 

i can already see it now, 3rd round passes, people scream for Dillon, 4th round passes still no Dillon, 5th round, cmon man we gotta be taking Dillon here he’s fallen so far!

 

Someone takes him in the 6,7th , or goes undrafted. Can’t believe we didn’t take that guy he’s a stud. Cut in training camp by 1 of 32 teams. 

not a chance this happens.