There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[plenzmd1]

6 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

 

 

 

 

This is the issue about having a discussion...it is painted like this on the one side as though "sitting on the couch" has no economic impacts, and that economic impacts are just gunna be minimal.

 

Do you deny there are impacts that are occurring to harm people because of the stay at home orders?

[Tiberius]

13 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

But that is the discussion that needs to happen...you say huge uptick..that may be correct, may not be. And if the fear is that people in the "open economy" will be in contact with the elderly, how can we mitigate that risk, knowing it will never be 100%. I think the big thing is we have to comfortable with having the conversation that this is "an act of god" and that deaths among the elderly and with comorbidity factors are gunna rise, and what level point do we morally say it is the correct thing to do(open).

 

I mean, we have gone to wars for 250 years to preserve our way of life and understand there is going hundreds of thousands of lives lost , almost all of them young people at the start of their lives. And if you think a great depression is not gunna sow social unrest at levels we have never seen and threaten out way of life, look at the those folks i Michigan the other day. Just wait till people cant pay for medicines and feed their family in December. 

 

 

Good points. What would happen to the economy if this things gets out of hand is another question worth considering. Perhaps, this is all just unavoidable. If there is a crash on a health care system in a state, the fear alone would ripple through the economy and shut things down. 

 

Would there have been a worse recession if the stay at home orders were not given? Maybe. 

[IDBillzFan]

43 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  There has to be more to the story than what you are saying.  Any breeding cattle is normally kept to maintain a flow of stock.  If he was just raising stock for processing you would have already seen the nature of the cycle.  Some operators this time of year start moving stock to state lands that allow grazing which have lower costs.  

 

The key to his little story is "we figure" this is what he did.

 

Typical. Create a reason that suits your current narrative based on the well-proven "we figure" analysis.

 

Here. Let me try.

 

My neighbor is always in his garden, but he stopped going out there for the past three days. We figure he died of Corona virus because Trump is president.

 

Gee. So easy even a Tibs can do it.

[Warren Zevon]

3 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

This is the issue about having a discussion...it is painted like this on the one side as though "sitting on the couch" has no economic impacts, and that economic impacts are just gunna be minimal.

 

Do you deny there are impacts that are occurring to harm people because of the stay at home orders?

 

No way. The impacts are massive. I'm for opening up carefully. 

[plenzmd1]

5 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

No way. The impacts are massive. I'm for opening up carefully. 

But what does that mean? how do we do it? Not saying that sarcastically, but that is the discussion we need to have

[KRC]

8 minutes ago, ALF said:

At senior home, staff stays put 24-7 to stop virus spread

 

Williams is among about 70 employees who are sheltering in place alongside more than 500 residents at an upscale assisted-living facility just outside Atlanta. Since the end of March, Park Springs has had employees live on its 61-acre campus instead of commute from home to protect residents from the coronavirus — an unusual approach, even as nursing homes have been among the hardest-hit places by the pandemic.

 

The approach has been used elsewhere: In France, staff at a nursing home ended a 47-day quarantine Monday. In Connecticut, the owner of an assisted-living facility that is housing staff on the premises, Tyson Belanger, has called for government funding to help more senior communities do so.

 

https://www.ksat.com/news/national/2020/05/05/at-senior-home-staff-stays-put-24-7-to-stop-virus-spread/

 

The extreme way to protect assisted living and nursing homes. The only other way is to test each worker before entering the facility every time with a quick test result.

 

Some health care workers don't go home but stay at a hotel 

 

 

The facility where my in-laws are staying checks for symptoms of employees before entering the building. They give them COVID tests if there are any symptoms. There have been 5 employees that tested positive. Nobody outside of employees are allowed in the building.

 

They have also shifted patients based on test results to keep the non-COVID patients away from the positive patients. They also have workers only work with one group of patients to minimize transference of the disease. You either only work with positive or only negative patients.

[shoshin]

2 minutes ago, KRC said:

 

The facility where my in-laws are staying checks for symptoms of employees before entering the building. They give them COVID tests if there are any symptoms. There have been 5 employees that tested positive. Nobody outside of employees are allowed in the building.

 

They have also shifted patients based on test results to keep the non-COVID patients away from the positive patients. They also have workers only work with one group of patients to minimize transference of the disease. You either only work with positive or only negative patients.

 

That's about all they can do in the current situation because we don't have the testing we need yet. 

[dubs]

19 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

I agree with this, but unfortunately measures in place to protect as best as possible the most at risk population requires the rest of the population to make sacrifices such as maintaining social distancing and wearing a mask in public. We've seen in recent days members of "the rest of the population" resist wearing masks and three even decided to murder someone over it. "The rest of the population" also is not maintaining social distancing. 

 

Freedoms are important and it's understandable why someone feel like their rights are being infringed, but one should be able to understand they are making a sacrifice for the health of the greater good. When "the rest of the population" can barely tolerate wearing a mask in public and social distancing, how can the country balance it's freedoms while keeping everyone safe? It's not possible if "the rest of the population" refuses to take precautions. 

 

 

Now we're being asked to wear masks in public and maintain social distancing. We should be able to do at least that - at a minimum. 

 

 

Totally understand.  The only think I think we need to be careful about is the idea that anything less than 100% compliance with safety measures is failure and reason for draconian measure to stay in place.

 

My belief is that the vast vast majority of people will do the things they need to, wear masks, social distance, wash hands, etc...  But there will certainly be a small group that refuses to do that.  Certainly frustrating to see, but not indicative of how most people will conduct themselves.

[ALF]

8 minutes ago, KRC said:

 

The facility where my in-laws are staying checks for symptoms of employees before entering the building. They give them COVID tests if there are any symptoms. There have been 5 employees that tested positive. Nobody outside of employees are allowed in the building.

 

They have also shifted patients based on test results to keep the non-COVID patients away from the positive patients. They also have workers only work with one group of patients to minimize transference of the disease. You either only work with positive or only negative patients.

 

Could You Be an Asymptomatic COVID-19 Carrier? Here's What You Need to Know

 

Blood tests that check for exposure to the coronavirus are starting to come online, and preliminary findings suggest that many people have been infected without knowing it.

 

Even people who do eventually experience the common symptoms of COVID-19 don't start coughing and spiking fevers the moment they're infected.

 

https://www.sciencealert.com/a-physician-answers-5-questions-about-asymptomatic-covid-19

 

that's what makes it a lot more dangerous 

[GG]

21 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

For sure - I'm mainly talking about legit studies that show the death rate because of a crashing economy. I haven't seen any of these but it's been a huge talking point.

 

If you care to be serious about a topic for a change - USA had a 55/100K rate for "deaths of despair" for 25-64 yr olds in 2017.   That translates to about 185K fatalities each year.  There were numerous studies that tried to explain the increased slope of the deaths of despair trendline, especially in the 2010-2014 periods.   

 

Also notable is that starting in 2018, US life expectancy started to increase, driven primarily by a decrease in the deaths of despair rates.

 

Draw whatever conclusion you want from these data sets.

[dubs]

5 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

Could You Be an Asymptomatic COVID-19 Carrier? Here's What You Need to Know

 

Blood tests that check for exposure to the coronavirus are starting to come online, and preliminary findings suggest that many people have been infected without knowing it.

 

Even people who do eventually experience the common symptoms of COVID-19 don't start coughing and spiking fevers the moment they're infected.

 

https://www.sciencealert.com/a-physician-answers-5-questions-about-asymptomatic-covid-19

 

that's what makes it a lot more dangerous 

 

I would argue that it makes the virus very infectious, but actually less dangerous.  If the estimates this person used are accurate and 1 in 5 people in NYC have been already infected, that's about 1,700,000 cases.

 

[Warren Zevon]

7 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

But what does that mean? how do we do it? Not saying that sarcastically, but that is the discussion we need to have

 

I'm not sure at a macro level but I think it would behoove us to have a national testing strategy and a national team of contact tracers. We also need the population to accept social distancing and wearing a mask in public as the new (temporary) normal.  I also think if the leader in the White House and his administration lead by example in promoting wearing a mask in public and social distancing much of the country would follow. 

[Koko78]

15 minutes ago, GG said:

 

If you care to be serious about a topic for a change - USA had a 55/100K rate for "deaths of despair" for 25-64 yr olds in 2017.   That translates to about 185K fatalities each year.  There were numerous studies that tried to explain the increased slope of the deaths of despair trendline, especially in the 2010-2014 periods.   

 

Also notable is that starting in 2018, US life expectancy started to increase, driven primarily by a decrease in the deaths of despair rates.

 

Draw whatever conclusion you want from these data sets.

 

That ***** don't matter. The only thing that will fix everything is if we turn total control over our lives to the government, which will bring about the rainbow-farting unicorns, who will impose a socialist utopia.

[Nanker]

2 minutes ago, dubs said:

 

I would argue that it makes the virus very infectious, but actually less dangerous.  If the estimates this person used are accurate and 1 in 5 people in NYC have been already infected, that's about 1,700,000 cases.

 

Unless you're 65+ years old, and worse - if you're in a nursing home... especially in New York. Over half the deaths in NY are from nursing home patients. In March the state decided that Nursing Homes had to accept Wuhan Virus cases that were released from a hospital. It did stipulate that the homes had to adhere to the CDC protocols. But many of them couldn't, but accepted the patients anyway. 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/at-a-ny-nursing-home-forced-to-take-covid-19-patients-24-residents-have-died/ar-BB13bhPj

 

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-coronavirus-nursing-home-deaths-20200417-g4e4r6xqrfh4jhtzmombzjsfae-story.html

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/us/nursing-homes-coronavirus.html

 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/nyc-nursing-homes-besieged-by-coronavirus-deaths-state/

 

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/05/almost-half-of-onondaga-countys-coronavirus-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes.html

 

[plenzmd1]

18 minutes ago, GG said:

 

If you care to be serious about a topic for a change - USA had a 55/100K rate for "deaths of despair" for 25-64 yr olds in 2017.   That translates to about 185K fatalities each year.  There were numerous studies that tried to explain the increased slope of the deaths of despair trendline, especially in the 2010-2014 periods.   

 

Also notable is that starting in 2018, US life expectancy started to increase, driven primarily by a decrease in the deaths of despair rates.

 

Draw whatever conclusion you want from these data sets.

Can you explain this a bit @GG, not quite sure I understand? Thx

[GG]

1 minute ago, Nanker said:

Unless you're 65+ years old, and worse - if you're in a nursing home... especially in New York. Over half the deaths in NY are from nursing home patients. In March the state decided that Nursing Homes had to accept Wuhan Virus cases that were released from a hospital. It did stipulate that the homes had to adhere to the CDC protocols. But many of them couldn't, but accepted the patients anyway. 

 

 

My understanding is that at the time, the nursing homes had to accept the patients no matter what by state decree.

1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said:

Can you explain this a bit @GG, not quite sure I understand? Thx

 

Which part?

[plenzmd1]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

My understanding is that at the time, the nursing homes had to accept the patients no matter what by state decree.

 

Which part?

How that correlates to the discussion on opening the economy? Is there an infernce in the study that "deaths of despair" will increase? Is there a percentage attached? Just not sure i understand, and i would like to.Thx

[Deranged Rhino]

https://nypost.com/2020/05/06/faulty-coronavirus-kits-suspected-as-goat-and-fruit-test-positive-in-tanzania/

Faulty tests? Or ... something even worse?

 

FEAR=control. 

[GG]

2 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

How that correlates to the discussion on opening the economy? Is there an infernce in the study that "deaths of despair" will increase? Is there a percentage attached? Just not sure i understand, and i would like to.Thx

 

It's tangential to the question of what's more damaging - allowing the virus to spread more rapidly as you open up society or keep killing the economy by locking people up in their homes.

 

We kind of know the USA's reported Wuhan mortality of 5.8%, with an estimated 0.5% "actual" rate based on the assumption that a much higher number was actually infected (at least 15% of the population).   We also know what the deaths of despair (suicide, overdose, poisoning, etc) mortality rate is.  There's also evidence that points to a causal relationship between economic downturns and increases in deaths of despair.   

 

So the question to answer is how bad will this thing get if you don't open up the economy?    My guess is that the longer you wait the greater the toll, and it will surpass the Wuhan deaths, especially now that we have bent the curve.

26 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

https://nypost.com/2020/05/06/faulty-coronavirus-kits-suspected-as-goat-and-fruit-test-positive-in-tanzania/

Faulty tests? Or ... something even worse?

 

FEAR=control. 

 

Goat?  Fruit?

 

Did someone say Pan-demic?

 

Coincidence?  I think not.

[Deranged Rhino]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

Goat?  Fruit?

 

Did someone say Pan-demic?

 

Coincidence?  I think not.

 

  

[plenzmd1]

26 minutes ago, GG said:

 

 

 

Goat?  Fruit?

 

Did someone say Pan-demic?

 

Coincidence?  I think not.

Hmm, which brings us naturally to a discussion of this book

 

https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/155516/jitterbug-perfume-by-tom-robbins/

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jitterbug_Perfume

 

Quote

Plot summary[edit]

A powerful and chiseled 8th-century king named Alobar narrowly escapes regicide at the hands of his own subjects, from a custom of killing the leader at the first sign of aging. After fleeing, no longer a king but only a man, he travels through Eurasia, on a newfound quest for the secret to longevity. Eventually he stumbles upon the stamping grounds of the pungent goat-god Pan, who is slowly losing his godly powers as the world turns toward Christianity. Pan encourages Alobar to continue East in search of the masters of immortality.

I am a huge Tom Robbins fan, and this is by far my favorite by him. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

14 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

 

 

 

 

[Keukasmallies]

I wonder if the judge metes out the same degree of adherance to the law to every individual brought before his court.  I'm betting that he finds extenuating circumstances on a regular basis.  Why not in this case, beats me; maybe he deemed her to be just too feisty for his liking.

[Hedge]

14 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

That salon owner will be able to pay her fine and fight her conviction if she chooses. Her go fund me is over $125k.

 

 

 

And her GoFundMe is now approaching $300K.

[dhg]

Was that judge wearing a mask in an empty courtroom?

[Nanker]

2 hours ago, GG said:

 

It's tangential to the question of what's more damaging - allowing the virus to spread more rapidly as you open up society or keep killing the economy by locking people up in their homes.

 

We kind of know the USA's reported Wuhan mortality of 5.8%, with an estimated 0.5% "actual" rate based on the assumption that a much higher number was actually infected (at least 15% of the population).   We also know what the deaths of despair (suicide, overdose, poisoning, etc) mortality rate is.  There's also evidence that points to a causal relationship between economic downturns and increases in deaths of despair.   

 

So the question to answer is how bad will this thing get if you don't open up the economy?    My guess is that the longer you wait the greater the toll, and it will surpass the Wuhan deaths, especially now that we have bent the curve.

 

Goat?  Fruit?

 

Did someone say Pan-demic?

 

Coincidence?  I think not.

Eye sea whut ewe did their. 

[shoshin]

Interesting tool from the RAND corporation. 

 

https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TLA173-1/tool.html

Quote

 

This tool supports decisionmakers in planning a recovery roadmap by estimating the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on health and economic outcomes. The tool also provides qualitative guidance on the efficacy, costs, and potential unintended consequences of a range of interventions.

 

The tool draws on an epidemiological model and an economic model to estimate effects, based on evidence from past epidemics, peer-reviewed literature, and data from the current pandemic. Data on current impacts are updated daily where available.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by shoshin

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[dubs]

10 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

It really is just that simple.

 

Also, where is the role of the legislatures in this?  I must have missed all the new laws being passed, but I guess at some point some law was passed giving governors and mayors broad discretion and authority to declare states of emergencies and do what they want.

 

 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

Straw man argument is not productive. No one wants to close the country for years. 

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, shoshin said:

 

Straw man argument is not productive. No one wants to close the country for years. 

 

You sure about that? You haven't been paying attention to the past 20 if you really think that. 

[shoshin]

3 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

You sure about that? You haven't been paying attention to the past 20 if you really think that. 

 

Yes, I'm sure. There are the Twitter screamers probably and they are the wacky minority but every state's governor is talking about reopening plans. 

 

Trying to keep the comments in reality, not at the extremes. Trump is just playing to a segment of his base talking like that. 

 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by shoshin

[Deranged Rhino]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

Yes, I'm sure. There are the screamers and they are the minority. Every state's governor is talking about reopening plans. 

 

You're certain there aren't people within various levels of government who wish to destroy this country and reform it into something different? 

 

... come now. 

 

 

They're literally BRAGGING about it in the early days of this lockdown.

[SoCal Deek]

7 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Straw man argument is not productive. No one wants to close the country for years. 

Of course they don't....only until immediately after the first Tuesday in November!

[3rdnlng]

42 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Yes, I'm sure. There are the Twitter screamers probably and they are the wacky minority but every state's governor is talking about reopening plans. 

 

Trying to keep the comments in reality, not at the extremes. Trump is just playing to a segment of his base talking like that. 

 

 

Explain the actions of the VA Governor then.

[shoshin]

56 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

You're certain there aren't people within various levels of government who wish to destroy this country and reform it into something different? 

 

You've not stuck to Trump's quote and now introduce some other theory. 

 

56 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

... come now. 

 

So come now yourself. 

 

56 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

They're literally BRAGGING about it in the early days of this lockdown.

 

There was an attempt to hijack $$ and legislation in many directions. Most unsuccessful. And NONE OF IT centered on Trump's multi-year shutdown quote. 

16 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Explain the actions of the VA Governor then.

 

Every state has an opening plan. 

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, shoshin said:

 

You've not stuck to Trump's quote and now introduce some other theory. 

 

 

Correct. I misread your initial post.   

[Magox]

7 hours ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

For sure - I'm mainly talking about legit studies that show the death rate because of a crashing economy. I haven't seen any of these but it's been a huge talking point.

What are you talking about?

 

I have posted and cited at least 6 serological antibody tests from various respected universities, health departments and governments.    
 

The mortality rates range anywhere from .12% - .7% 

 

Even the anecdotal accounts in the meat packing plants and prisons which have large sample sizes in the thousands reinforce those findings.

 

And there has also been compiled hospital data from the hospitals with the most COVID cases from NY, Boston and Italy that show the demographics of those that have been most effected.   
 

In the statistics thread there are economic impact studies on health.  And other shut down related effects on health.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Magox

[plenzmd1]

3 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

 

i dont understand, outside of the beuracratic mess, why is there not a middle ground..high risk people stay home and shelter, the rest of us go about our business. The overall cost has to be much less even with the fraud that would occur..

1 hour ago, 3rdnlng said:

Explain the actions of the VA Governor then.

what actions? Please explain what actions you have issues with?