Is the NFL really a passing league?

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

5 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

Its really simple

 

When you play from behind you have to air it out.

 

When your ahead you can be more balanced.

I've seen this opinion on Facebook about the top 5 passers not making the playoffs this year and checked into the numbers. Winston had way more yards in their wins vs losses and 4 of their 7 wins were by double digits. Matt Ryan averaged a couple yards more in wins vs losses and 4 of their 7 wins were by double digits, some were total blowouts(40-20, 29-3, 26-9). Dak & Rivers averaged ~9 yards below their season average in wins, Dallas had double digit wins in 7 of their 8 wins and the Chargers had double digit wins in 3 of their 5 wins. Goff was the only QB out of the 5 that averaged significantly more yards in losses vs wins.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Kelly the Dog said:

With regard to Lamar, who I agree is an anomaly and will likely never duplicate this season, it is pretty clear that his lofty passing stats were much more due to teams worrying about his running, versus lofty running stats because teams were worried about his passing. Many of his TDs were to guys left all alone. 

I’ve said that a number of times.  His receivers have been wide open because they worry too much about his running.  
 

and if Roman gets a HC position things will change for the Ravens. 
 

[CardinalScotts]

well win or be fun to watch ?

win or good fantasy numbers ?

 

look at the rushing teams = playoffs - take a look at qb numbers for those who win. I always hear  well in a shoot out we need to.....if we get into a shootout it wouldn't benefit how we play.  

Here is a great example of a team that plays complimentary football....Rothlisberger 21 playoff games 5 300 or more passing games 0-5 it doesn't fit how they play 6 games under 200 yards passing...6-0....we are a similair style team pass for 200-230 hit a couple big plays run it, dont turn it over make them beat our defense repeatedly. This is not saying Allen stinks or cant throw for huge yards but the risk you have to take for a huge passing day usually are connected to we have to because we cant stop them. 

That's Rodgers(and Brees)  and why McCarthy isnt there throw for 370 win by 3 points not playing complimentary football, Rodgers last 10 playoff games 9 over 30 throws 5 over 40. The easy answer is you've got him so use him and that thought process is what puts an all time great on the couch watching super bowls. With a lot of passing attempts comes a lot of 3 and outs, sacks fumbles, interceptions. Brees loses to  Bridgewater, Grossman, Alex Smith, Jared Goff in 15 games Saints have cracked 28 points 8 times so about half. Complimentary football quit worry about the what about the shootout scenario it rarely shows up. 

 

30 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

I’ve said that a number of times.  His receivers have been wide open because they worry too much about his running.  
 

and if Roman gets a HC position things will change for the Ravens. 
 

and its his Tight ends not his wideouts ....they block and release short passes between the hash marks....its tough to stop....you have to dictate and 1st and 2nd down.....you need negative plays 

[BringBackOrton]

3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

It's never really been a passing league in terms of total yards. That's a myth. Consensus top two teams this year and backed by seeding are the Ravens and 49ers. They are 1 and 2 overall respectively in rushing yards. 49ers are 13th in passing yards and Ravens are 27th. That's one spot lower than the Bills 26th ranked passing offense.

2 of the top 4 passers in yards last year were the #1 seed in the AFC and the NFC representative in the Super Bowl last year. 

 

This is why you don’t look at one year and make sweeping claims.

[JMF2006]

40 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

I’ve said that a number of times.  His receivers have been wide open because they worry too much about his running.  
 

and if Roman gets a HC position things will change for the Ravens. 
 

 

I hope he gets the Browns job their idea of continuity  is 2 years

[HOUSE]

LOL, It's a passing league till some team wins the Superbowl running the football THEN it will change back

It's a copy cat league

[CheshireCT]

6 hours ago, colin said:

It's a complicated game of rock paper scissors.

 

Rules help push things along, but defensive coordinators and the generally higher level of athletic ability on d catches up, and then new offenses come along and the cycle begins anew. 

 

Right now, D's are really good at pressure, coverage, and run blitzing.  They all seem to be poorly equiped to stop a power run game.  There is also something to be said about a very balanced d like the one we have, where if guys make tackles we can defend anything.  I think that why mcd likes waves of dline and super athlete mbls, they can deal w most anything. 

 

I'm a big fan of how these things trend and change.  I really got into it back when I played and pitz came in hot w the zone blitz concept and the 3-4 vs 4-3 stuff.

 

This is exactly what I would say. League becomes a passing league? Ok well then teams are going to focus on building good pass defenses....so then you have to run the ball to have success again.

[unclepete]

10 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

Its really simple

 

When you play from behind you have to air it out.

 

When your ahead you can be more balanced.

Exactly. Stats can be misleading. Losing teams throw the ball a lot to catch up. Lots of winning teams play ahead and run the ball to keep the clock rolling. 

[Punching Bag]

7 hours ago, Sunshower said:

It goes to show you that a 2nd or 3rd round pick on RB should not be out of the question. Singletary is going to be great but Batman needs his Robin.

 

Considering Singletary's size he needs to be Robin.  And if the Bills get short money they can do like they did in comics and have a 1-900 poll to keep or let him go.

[97bills]

11 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

Great analysis by billsfan1959. Lamar is an anomaly, but it seems the more balanced offenses are the best. 4 of the top 5 rushing teams and 7 of the top 10 are in the playoffs. 

So I tend to agree that this is not a passing league as 1 of the top 5 (KC) and only 3 of the top 10 passing teams made the playoffs.

 

The other factor to take into account is RB's catching the ball out of the backfield. RB's like McCaffrey, Eckeler, Kamara, Cohen, Fournette and TE's Kelce, Waller, Ertz, Kittle all had more REC than our #1 John Brown. The short passing game is more like running the ball. The completion percentage is much higher. 

 

Why the Bills have not taken advantage of this with Yeldon and Singletary is beyond me. We seem to keep 90% of our passing game in the intermediate game, which is why it is so innefective. Josh Allen ranked #32 in completion percentage as he is forced to throw into tight windows where defenders know and anticipate the play. We failed miserably with the deep balls and took very few shots. We failed miserably with the screen game by not calling enough screens, RPO's and short passes. We had moderate success with the intermediate game with Brown and Beasley, but dropped balls stalled many a drive.  I really hope we see some diversity and new wrinkles in the offense this week or I pray that Cleveland is stupid enough to hire Daboll as a head coach.

I second that every team in the NFL runs screens or WR screens but we do none. We need to be on C’mon man for no screen plays 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Total passing yards is meaningless. Just like defensive yards given up. TD/Int ratio and YPA is what matters. 

[jrober38]

Yardage isn't the be all end all. It's how efficient you are when you pass.

 

Look at the rankings in QB Rating for the teams in the playoffs: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 19, 24. 

 

The Bills were the clear outlier here. 

[JaCrispy]

12 hours ago, stuvian said:

because all the rules were changed to favour the pass, the defenses allowed teams to run between the 20s. As a result no one knows how to tackle anymore so run teams like the Ravens are  going to dominate

Yup...and this is why we drafted a MLB that isn’t really a MLB- because of the pass

[Hebert19]

It is when you have a bad defense. 

 

Top tier teams have better balance and Ds

[billsfan1959]

11 hours ago, jrober38 said:

Yardage isn't the be all end all. It's how efficient you are when you pass.

 

Look at the rankings in QB Rating for the teams in the playoffs: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 19, 24. 

 

The Bills were the clear outlier here. 

 

Look at the total touchdowns of the QBs in the playoffs: 1, 2, 4, 6 (Allen), 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 16.

 

Actually, how productive you are may play a more important role. Hmmmmmmmm.....

 

But that doesn't fit well with your narrative, now does it?

[BringBackOrton]

5 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Look at the total touchdowns of the QBs in the playoffs: 1, 2, 4, 6 (Allen), 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 16.

 

Actually, how productive you are may play a more important role. Hmmmmmmmm.....

 

But that doesn't fit well with your narrative, now does it?

Now do total offensive touchdowns, unless only TD’s by QB’s count towards wins and losses.

Edited January 2, 2020 by BringBackOrton

[billsfan1959]

30 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Now do total offensive touchdowns, unless only TD’s by QB’s count towards wins and losses.

 

There are a lot factors besides, just QB ability that goes into total team offensive output. jrober38 loves to cherry pick stats. I was just offering another perspective. Sorry that anything positive about Allen bothers you - but there are some good things there...

 

Some other factors that might affect a QB's ability to move the football and score points:

 

Percentage of plays in which the ball is thrown away, spiked, dropped by a receiver, or tipped/ batted at (Allen #1 at 15.7%)
Distance of throw per attempt (longer throws) (Allen #5)
Percentage of passes dropped at (Allen #5 at 7.2%)
Being blitzed (Allen #52 at 43% of pass plays)
Amount of time, when blitzed, between snap and the throw/when the pocket collapses (Allen #1 in least amount at 2.3 seconds)
YAC per att by his receivers (Allen #4 in least amount)
YAC per completion (Allen #6 in least amount)
Amount of separation by his receivers at the time of the catch (Allen #10 in least amount)

 

Here is Allen's average ranking across those categories compared to the other playoff QBs:

 

Josh Allen                 6
Tom Brady                14.8
Carson Wentz          15.3
Russell Wilson         15.4
Lamar Jackson       16.5
Deshaun Watson    16.7
Drew Brees               18.9
Jimmy Garoppolo    18.9
Ryan Tannehill          19.6
Aaron Rodgers         20.9
Patrick Mahomes    22.6
Kirk Cousins             23.2

 

Allen has a lot of room for improvement; however, he could use some help in other areas as well

Edited January 2, 2020 by billsfan1959

[Meatloaf63]

22 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Just an FYI - had this thread already this week 

Duplicate post but we’ll ignore that?

[BringBackOrton]

3 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

There are a lot factors besides, just QB ability that goes into total team offensive output. jrober38 loves to cherry pick stats. I was just offering another perspective. Sorry that anything positive about Allen bothers you - but there are some good things there...

 

Some other factors that might affect a QB's ability to move the football and score points:

 

Percentage of plays in which the ball is thrown away, spiked, dropped by a receiver, or tipped/ batted at (Allen #1 at 15.7%)
Distance of throw per attempt (longer throws) (Allen #5)
Percentage of passes dropped at (Allen #5 at 7.2%)
Being blitzed (Allen #52 at 43% of pass plays)
Amount of time, when blitzed, between snap and the throw/when the pocket collapses (Allen #1 in least amount at 2.3 seconds)
YAC per att by his receivers (Allen #4 in least amount)
YAC per completion (Allen #6 in least amount)
Amount of separation by his receivers at the time of the catch (Allen #10 in least amount)

 

Here is Allen's average ranking across those categories compared to the other playoff QBs:

 

Josh Allen                 6
Tom Brady                14.8
Carson Wentz          15.3
Russell Wilson         15.4
Lamar Jackson       16.5
Deshaun Watson    16.7
Drew Brees               18.9
Jimmy Garoppolo    18.9
Ryan Tannehill          19.6
Aaron Rodgers         20.9
Patrick Mahomes    22.6
Kirk Cousins             23.2

 

Allen has a lot of room for improvement; however, he could use some help in other areas as well

If Allen is #6th in least amount, wouldn’t a higher number be better? But in distance per throw a lower number?

 

Not sure if the math holds up here. Obviously there are lots of factors that affect offensive output, I just found it interesting that you also cherry picked a stat in an attempt to argue against a cherry picked stat.

Edited January 2, 2020 by BringBackOrton

[billsfan1959]

9 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

If Allen is #6th in least amount, wouldn’t a higher number be better? But in distance per throw a lower number?

 

Not sure if the math holds up here. Obviously there are lots of factors that affect offensive output, I just found it interesting that you also cherry picked a stat in an attempt to argue against a cherry picked stat.

 

Allen is #5 in avg distance per throw. The longer the throws, the greater the probability of decreased completion %. As for the rest:

 

He has the highest percentage of passes dropped

He has the 3rd most passes thrown away

He has the 14th most passes tipped or batted down

His blitzed the 2nd most of any QB

He is tied for 1st on the least amount of time on blitzes, from snap to pressure/pass

He is 10th in least amount of separation by receivers at the point of the catch

He is 4th in the least amount of YAC by his receivers per attempt

He is 6th in the least amount of YAC by his receivers per completion

 

The math holds up. No other QB in the NFL comes close to ranking that low across all those categories.

 

Just in the percentage of dropped passes, spikes, throw aways, and tipped/batted passes alone - at least 5% more of Allen's passes are dropped, spiked, thrown away, or tipped/batted than any other playoff QB, other than Brady. All the other QBs are between 8% and 10%.

 

Josh Allen                   15%
Tom Brady                   13%
Aaron Rodgers           10%
Kirk Cousins               10%
Patrick Mahomes      10%
Lamar Jackson          10%
Jimmy Garoppolo      9%
Russell Wilson            9%
Carson Wentz             9%
Deshaun Watson        9%
Ryan Tannehill            9%
Drew Brees                  8%

 

Just for reference, if Allen was at 10% rather than 15% and that extra 5% resulted in completed passes, his completion percentage would be at 64%. Or even, more realistically, if 3% of that extra 5% resulted in completed passes, his completion percentage would be 62%. Not to mention the possibility of keeping drives alive, more chances for big plays, more scoring opportunites, etc., that come along with more completions.

 

Look, I'm not trying to make excuses for Allen, he certainly has much to improve on. But it is not all him. If he continues to improve on not missing easy throws, taking what the defense gives him (those higher percentage throws), trusting his Oline more when facing pressure, and hitting more of those deep opportunities when they present themselves - AND they continue to improve on the Oline, he gets a better receiving compliment (in terms of fewer dropped passes, better separation, better YAC), and a more consistent running game (particularly the short game) behind him, then he has a chance to be a consistent top 10 QB.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On 1/1/2020 at 3:43 PM, JMF2006 said:

 

I hope he gets the Browns job their idea of continuity  is 2 years

 

How to answer that....  

Just 2? (meaning more misery)

Only 2?

Will he make it to 2?

 

On 1/2/2020 at 8:13 AM, billsfan1959 said:

 

Look at the total touchdowns of the QBs in the playoffs: 1, 2, 4, 6 (Allen), 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 16.

 

Actually, how productive you are may play a more important role. Hmmmmmmmm.....

 

But that doesn't fit well with your narrative, now does it?

 

This is why people shouldn't rely on stats as their go to as a standard for success. 

 

[JMF2006]

2 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

How to answer that....  

Just 2? (meaning more misery)

Only 2?

Will he make it to 2?

 

 

This is why people shouldn't rely on stats as their go to as a standard for success. 

 

 

2 years is making a long term commitment for the Browns

[row_33]

2 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

2 years is making a long term commitment for the Browns

 

2 consecutive quarters of a game without pooping the bed would be a dynasty to that team

 

[dave mcbride]

Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs, all passed for over 4,000 yards except Baltimore and three WC teams -- Buffalo, Minnesota, and Tennessee. And Tennessee passed for 3,956 yards. 

[row_33]

i'll wait for 8 playoff games and then sift through all the stats and let you know what winning takes, give me another month after the games though, just to get it right