Joe B’s All 22 Review: Allen and Edmunds Struggle Big Time vs NE

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

And once again @Buffalo716 nails it.  As I pointed out elsewhere, the Pats have been allowing between 12-13 ppg all year.  The only 3 teams which managed more points than we did were the Ravens (37), Kansas City (23), and Houston (28).  Guess what, all playoff teams.  Also guess what, NE normally ratchets up at the end of the season when other teams relax a bit.

 

In that context, 17 points is not a horrible, regressive outing.  I thought it was pretty clear that unlike the Week 4 outing, Josh knew what he was seeing and knew where to go with the ball, he just didn't always get it there and perhaps at times still went for the "kill shot" when situationally, "move the chains" might have been best.

 

 

 

Agreed that 17 points is not horrible. That's very fair. You're going to get fewer chances against NE. But when you get those chances, you still have to hit them, or rather a large percentage of them.

 

Josh had plays here that he just botched, and particularly early in the game. That's not acceptable just because it's the Patriots.  The two plays where Knox was open for potential TDs ... oh, man did that hurt.

[JoPoy88]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Agreed that 17 points is not horrible. That's very fair. You're going to get fewer chances against NE. But when you get those chances, you still have to hit them, or rather a large percentage of them.

 

Josh had plays here that he just botched, and particularly early in the game. That's not acceptable just because it's the Patriots.  The two plays where Knox was open for potential TDs ... oh, man did that hurt.

can’t say it any better than that. 
 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Agreed that 17 points is not horrible. That's very fair. You're going to get fewer chances against NE. But when you get those chances, you still have to hit them, or rather a large percentage of them.

 

Josh had plays here that he just botched, and particularly early in the game. That's not acceptable just because it's the Patriots.  The two plays where Knox was open for potential TDs ... oh, man did that hurt.

 

I've said it elsewhere, but it may bear repeating here.  People get fixated on the big misses.  I get it.  We see the guys, they're open, Allen doesn't hit 'em, it sucks.  But those two plays are not why we lost the game, Honest.  Did Allen leave too many plays on the field, absolutely, but not necessarily those.

 

People also get fixated on stuff - apparently one can't point out problems in other aspects of the game without becoming an Apologist, because apparently only one problem can exist on offense at one time and it's either Allen's fault or the OLs fault or the coach's/playcalling fault - it can't be "all of the above".   Well, it IS all of the above. 

In the case of the first missed TD to Knox, the playcalling on 1st and 2nd down was a John Brown reverse and a stuffed run by Devin Singletary.  Now our first pass (6th offensive play of the game) is 3rd and 7.   Could we perhaps help our QB settle in with some different choices?  Maybe a pass when it's not "all or nothing"?  Maybe a play where more than one very deep guy was positioned to get the 1st and move the chains?

OK the play itself.  We've got a 11 set with Singletary in the backfield and Knox in close, as though he's going to block.  Pats look to have 6 guys on the line.  Singletary immediately releases into the flat and Knox starts a route, but gets tangled up and delayed.  Meanwhile Ford gets beaten like a drum and Morse gets immediately shoved back  To both their credits, they stay with their guy and recover, but the point is, it's a long developing route without the protection to support its development and one of the rushers delays then stunts for the gap between Morse and Feliciano just to make their life happier.  Allen's choices are Singletary (checkdown option, on the LOS), Beasley 3 yds short and still maneuvering himself open with a defender positioned to ball-hawk an errant throw, and Knox.   I frankly can't tell what route Knox is supposed to be running.  It starts as though it's going to be maybe a fade with a stem (which is what the successful long pass was) - he goes straight upfield 10 yds. But then he slants for the corner of the EZ.  Was it some sort of fade/corner hybrid?  Leaving aside the question of illegal contact as the defender appears to lose contact then re-engage, Allen appears to be throwing to a deep corner route.  Was it a route running mistake - one of those where Knox is supposed to make a read on the DB and choose one of two routes?    On the successful long throw, Knox gets a clean release and runs a clean route, and Allen has the protection to hold the ball a beat longer and make a better throw.

 

I'm getting digressive, but my point is we're expecting Allen to make a play on a long developing route without the max protection to let it develop against a known fierce D, as the first pass play of the game for our OL and QB.  We're expecting Knox, a young route runner, to start in close as though he's blocking and then run a longer corner route (because starting close in) or maybe make a judgement call about his route, not sure.  Could it have been a better throw from Allen, yes indeed, but perhaps Knox didn't get to where the play expected him to be, either, and the OL was not doing its best work either.

 

The other options were well short of the line of gain.  IMHO the better choice might have been check down to Singletary and trust him to make his guy miss or barrel through enough to get the 1st.  But I find myself asking "Was that the best call as the first pass play of the game?  Seriously?"  It's Daboll being too cute to me.  "I know!  They'll be expecting us to max protect and target one of the 3 WR bunched on the right, so we'll pretend that's what we're doing but we're really throwing to the TE who is close in on the L  like he's blocking and counting on our OL Yeah!"  I mean as a scheme, it got Knox open - eventually - but it depends on our OL doing something it apparently can't do, and Knox and Allen both exhibiting skills they're still developing (releasing off the line and route tree decisions, problematic long throw).  I mean, goodness sake, can't we put our best WR in the best position to make that catch and maybe bring in a better blocker than Knox?  12 set maybe?  Maybe call one quicker developing pass play in the previous 6?  Let Allen build some faith he'll be protected and have time?

 

Now let's do the second missed TD late in the 4th Q.  I've put my viewpoint of that elsewhere so I don't want to recap entirely.  The preceding play was a designed QB run against an aggressive, IMO dirty-when-they-can-get-away-with-it D.  Our center got hurt.  So now Allen, who just took a big lick, gets to stand up and throw behind a new center and a guard off the bench.  Again, could it have been a better throw?  Absolutely!  But was it a great idea to call a designed QB run on 1st down in a gotta-have-it situation?  Again, I scratch my head and say "really?  we can't come up with some better play call choice there?"

So yes, were there missed plays which contributed to our loss, and were some of them on Allen especially early, absolutely yes.  But IMO he didn't get a lot of help from the play calling and some other aspects of the offense, either, and I don't actually think those two particular plays were that critical.  They stand out because they're missed TDs, but there were other, lower DOD missed plays that could have sustained drives and led to TDs.

 

Then we get people who read an assessment like this and they're all just "Oh Allen Apologist Never His Fault".  It makes me want to smack my head.  The point is it takes 12 guys - 11 on the field plus good play calling.  Daboll can be brilliant at his play design, but he's so abstract.  He looks at the X's and O's and says "this will work", and more often and not it does, in the sense that guys got open and a throw could be made and by Jinks Allen certainly has that throw in him.  Is it the best sequence of play choices for that down and distance and the Jimmies and Joes on the field?  ?‍♂️  At some point, it seems to me, that needs to be taken into account more than is happening.

 

 

 

 

 

[Coach Tuesday]

What Joe B actually said was that Allen’s performance was basically a Rorschach Test that wouldn’t be enough to convince either camp to change their minds - he made some amazing plays and missed some easy ones, giving fodder for the skeptics and the boosters.

 

Seems like this thread kind of confirms his point...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

What Joe B actually said was that Allen’s performance was basically a Rorschach Test that wouldn’t be enough to convince either camp to change their minds - he made some amazing plays and missed some easy ones, giving fodder for the skeptics and the boosters.

 

Seems like this thread kind of confirms his point...

 

Ha!  Well, I suppose Joe B's article would serve as one of the same Rorschach Tests then.   I suppose I fixed on stuff like "Allen regressed in distinct areas" and "on the majority of his other dropbacks, Allen held the offense from capitalizing on its true potential for the day" or his assessment of the two missed Knox throws:

"Allen didn’t take advantage of similar chances when he had time in the pocket with throws there to be made……..Allen missed two clear-as-day chances for points to Knox — one on the first drive and the other on the final possession. In both instances, Knox had a step on his defender, and Allen’s throw was nowhere close……"

He makes it sound as though Allen had a clean pocket and good protection there, and as though Knox got a clean release and ran a great route on the first, and I'm not persuaded of either.  IMO Allen was playing from a collapsing pocket and buying time all day, and sure, his technique suffered - but that's not a "regression" it's where he is right now whenever he's under pressure. 

I felt Allen played a much better game that showed he has progressed a LOT since the 1st NE game, and a lot of the game he WAS the offense, so Joe's assessment did not seem like a very good one to me.

Joe was right on about this play and it's one of the plays I was talking about when I agreed that there were missed plays and some of them were on Allen: " On a separate third-down play, a more polished pocket passer would have capitalized on the chance to hit a wide-open receiver in the middle of the field. Instead, Allen locked onto his first target and didn’t come off him despite the unrelenting coverage." 

Brown was so freakin' wide open over the middle that just HURT.

 

 

[Scott7975]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ha!  Well, I suppose Joe B's article would serve as one of the same Rorschach Tests then.   I suppose I fixed on stuff like "Allen regressed in distinct areas" and "on the majority of his other dropbacks, Allen held the offense from capitalizing on its true potential for the day" or his assessment of the two missed Knox throws:

"Allen didn’t take advantage of similar chances when he had time in the pocket with throws there to be made……..Allen missed two clear-as-day chances for points to Knox — one on the first drive and the other on the final possession. In both instances, Knox had a step on his defender, and Allen’s throw was nowhere close……"

 

 

He makes it sound as though Allen had a clean pocket and good protection there, and as though Knox got a clean release and ran a great route on the first, and I'm not persuaded of either.  IMO Allen was playing from a collapsing pocket and buying time all day, and sure, his technique suffered - but that's not a "regression" it's where he is right now whenever he's under pressure. 

I felt Allen played a much better game that showed he has progressed a LOT since the 1st NE game, and a lot of the game he WAS the offense, so Joe's assessment did not seem like a very good one to me.

Joe was right on about this play and it's one of the plays I was talking about when I agreed that there were missed plays and some of them were on Allen: " On a separate third-down play, a more polished pocket passer would have capitalized on the chance to hit a wide-open receiver in the middle of the field. Instead, Allen locked onto his first target and didn’t come off him despite the unrelenting coverage." 

 

 

Brown was so freakin' wide open over the middle that just HURT.

 

 

 

 

Yeah that one is definitely a huge miss by Allen.

[BigBuff423]

On 12/25/2019 at 9:41 AM, bigK14094 said:

Ahhhh Knox catches some big ones, and drops a lot of others.  What are the stats on his drops?  I don't know, but, I don't consider him to have good hands after watching all season.  We still need a receiving TE....maybe Croom can come back next year and be that guy.

Edmunds still doesn't look like a MLB to me after two years.  This has to be a worry for Bean and McD......Edmunds is not a run plugger.  He is a rangy fast large person, but, not good at the run when directed at him.  Hence the Bills vunerability to the up the gut run this year.

 

Edmunds is 21 years old....think about that for a minute. He hasn't even grown into his adult body yet. Give him time to get stronger and faster and learn more of the NFL. Much like Allen there has been notable growth with Edmunds in his second year and when we remind ourselves of just HOW young he truly is, and that he's still learning - I think he's earned some appreciation for those aspects of his game. Give him a 3rd year and more time to get stronger and then, let's see where he's at this time next year. 

[Franco_92]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Now let's do the second missed TD late in the 4th Q.  I've put my viewpoint of that elsewhere so I don't want to recap entirely.  The preceding play was a designed QB run against an aggressive, IMO dirty-when-they-can-get-away-with-it D.  Our center got hurt.  So now Allen, who just took a big lick, gets to stand up and throw behind a new center and a guard off the bench.  Again, could it have been a better throw?  Absolutely!  But was it a great idea to call a designed QB run on 1st down in a gotta-have-it situation?  Again, I scratch my head and say "really?  we can't come up with some better play call choice there?"

 

Maybe you hinted at this in your other viewpoint that I'm not gonna dig for, and I don't know a lot about football, but the people calling that simply a missed throw by Allen are handwaving too much away w.r.t. the difficulty of the throw itself. the spacing between guys underneath Knox and Knox, as well as guys trying to tip the pass in front of Allen, was such that to me it looked like the throw itself would be ridiculously difficult - a "touch pass" to get the arc high enough to not be in danger of deflection or an interception, that is ALSO fast enough to hit in the window that Knox was open. To me it seems like it would have been a magician throw if it had been made, and I don't hold it against Allen like I do plenty of other misses that he (and other QBs) routinely have. I thought he put that throw on a rope because he HAD to. 

Edited December 26, 2019 by arcane

[78thealltimegreat]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Yeah that one is definitely a huge miss by Allen.

I could show you a few wide open swing passes Aaron Rogers missed Monday night but hey every qb is better then Josh anyway so ?‍♂️

Edited December 26, 2019 by 78thealltimegreat

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

What Joe B actually said was that Allen’s performance was basically a Rorschach Test that wouldn’t be enough to convince either camp to change their minds - he made some amazing plays and missed some easy ones, giving fodder for the skeptics and the boosters.

 

Seems like this thread kind of confirms his point...

Well said and love the Rorschach test reference (watch Watchmen if you aren’t).  I had such a roller coaster ride watching that game.  When he had like 19 yards almost to halftime, it was confirming my doubts.  Then he makes some amazing plays where I’m like maybe he is the guy!  But then he has those missed plays.  
 

it’s stupid to say definitively what he will be right now.  I worry he might be that guy who consistently taunts us with top 5 potential but struggles to be consistent enough.  But plenty of time for growth and we’re winning games. 

[Billy Claude]

16 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Well said and love the Rorschach test reference (watch Watchmen if you aren’t).  I had such a roller coaster ride watching that game.  When he had like 19 yards almost to halftime, it was confirming my doubts.  Then he makes some amazing plays where I’m like maybe he is the guy!  But then he has those missed plays.  
 

it’s stupid to say definitively what he will be right now.  I worry he might be that guy who consistently taunts us with top 5 potential but struggles to be consistent enough.  But plenty of time for growth and we’re winning games. 

 

It's great to see two rational comments in a row.  Restores ones faith in humanities ability to think rationally.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, arcane said:

Maybe you hinted at this in your other viewpoint that I'm not gonna dig for, and I don't know a lot about football, but the people calling that simply a missed throw by Allen are handwaving too much away w.r.t. the difficulty of the throw itself. the spacing between guys underneath Knox and Knox, as well as guys trying to tip the pass in front of Allen, was such that to me it looked like the throw itself would be ridiculously difficult - a "touch pass" to get the arc high enough to not be in danger of deflection or an interception, that is ALSO fast enough to hit in the window that Knox was open. To me it seems like it would have been a magician throw if it had been made, and I don't hold it against Allen like I do plenty of other misses that he (and other QBs) routinely have. I thought he put that throw on a rope because he HAD to. 

 

The pass is like the Cole Beasley INT where it looks almost like maybe it was tipped but it actually rises during its progression because of Allen's throwing technique which is all upper body on that throw.   Allen doesn't seem to be stepping into the throw at all.  He could make a better throw.  He needs to make a better throw.   Warner comments on it that it is a tough throw to get "up and down" (over the lineman and the coverage, but place where Knox has a play)

It's possible Knox was in a different place than Allen expected him to be once again.  When he breaks, he sort of makes an arc instead of cutting on a line towards the back corner of the endzone.  Or maybe I don't understand the nuances of the routes the Bills are running.  We're talking about a ball that's 6-12" from something Knox has a chance at.  One part of the picture is a throw that doesn't quite go where Allen expects it to.  Another part of the picture is maybe Dawson Knox doesn't go quite where Allen expects him to.

On the third hand, if the OL hadn't turned all sieve-like, Allen could have had two more shots at a better throw.

 

Pointing out that other things may be wrong than Allen's throw does not mean Allen could not throw a better, more catchable pass and does not mean that Allen didn't miss other opportunities in the game (the one to Brown who was open over the middle being one example).  It doesn't mean "making excuses for Allen".  (I know you're not saying this)

 

More than one thing can be true.

 

 

[Augie]

On 12/25/2019 at 9:44 AM, JR in Pittsburgh said:

it’s strange. He has made several spectacular catches. It’s rare for a guy with bad hands to then make the circus catches he has also made.

 

I think it’s largely a matter of mentally doing the next thing before doing the first thing....the first thing being catching the ball! 

 

I think things will slow down and he can be a serious weapon for years to come. 

 

 

.

 

 

Edited December 26, 2019 by Augie

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The pass is like the Cole Beasley INT where it looks almost like maybe it was tipped but it actually rises during its progression because of Allen's throwing technique which is all upper body on that throw.   Allen doesn't seem to be stepping into the throw at all.  He could make a better throw.  He needs to make a better throw. 

It's possible Knox was in a different place than Allen expected him to be once again.  When he breaks, he sort of makes an arc instead of cutting on a line towards the back corner of the endzone.  Or maybe I don't understand the nuances of the routes the Bills are running.  We're talking about a ball that's 6-12" from something Knox has a chance at.

On the third hand, if the OL hadn't turned all sieve-like, Allen could have had two more shots at a better throw.

 

Pointing out that other things may be wrong than Allen's throw does not mean Allen could not throw a better, more catchable pass and does not mean that Allen didn't miss other opportunities in the game (the one to Brown who was open over the middle being one example).  It doesn't mean "making excuses for Allen".  (I know you're not saying this)

 

More than one thing can be true.

 

 

I said in real time that's a catchable ball that Knox needs to make more of attempt on. Not a perfect throw obviously, but absolutely catchable. It's strange to watch the replay...Knox doesn't jump for it at all, just reaches and extends. Not sure if he was off balance or not expecting the ball at that trajectory but this throw gets caught by TEs at a nonzero frequency.

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

I could show you a few wide open swing passes Aaron Rogers missed Monday night but hey every qb is better then Josh anyway so ?‍♂️

 

You don't need to go there with me.  I have argued the same thing.  All QBs miss stuff.  Josh missed that one.

[DuckyBoys]

On the endzone pass I think Allen expected Knox to go to the pylon to create more depth space to fit that throw in  Easier throw to the pylon with how deep the second defender was (not the guy trailing Knox)  Some media made it seem like its a easy completion but looking at the pics it was a bit tougher throw .  Would love for the Bills offense to be more efficient on early downs and set up more manageable downs for Allen. 

 

I do have one interesting thought  The media seems to be on the Allen is holding the Bills back but almost unanimously they had the Bills as a 5 or 6 win bottom dweller this year.  Hmmm sounds a bit hypocritical

[John from Riverside]

I really cannot question what he saw for this game it is there

 

I would only say that I would not base signing/not signing players based on one game vs what is still a top team and would evaluate players over the course of a season.  I dont think that is a recep for success

 

The things that did us in

 

Missed tackles

Josh's inconsistancy during the game

Lack of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball

 

 

 

[Bob in STL]

14 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nonsense.

 

Yeah, coaching requires a ton more knowledge.

 

But Joe isn't doing what coaches do. He's not calling plays and attempting to fool defensive coordinators. He's just looking at what happened with the benefit of hindsight. What he has set himself the task to do doesn't require absolute genius. What happened is right on the screen, and you can watch it again and again looking at what each player did. It just isn't as difficult as people want to pretend it is. The tough part of what Joe does game after game after game is that it takes massive amounts of time to look at each player on each play. That's the hardest part of what Joe does, and I respect the commitment it takes to do that.

 

No, you can't understand absolutely everything you see. And no, you won't know as much as the coaches do about what happened. But there's a reason that teams put interns on film study of other teams. You can understand the great majority of what goes on in the great majority of plays. It's hindsight, with video. It's not blind sudoku.

No nonsense Mr Buscaglia and thanks  for your support. 

[DuckyBoys]

Biggest reason for the loss to NE was the OL and DL  They had 2nd and manageable all game and Brady had loads of time  Allen had 2 and 10 and was constantly pressured  Honestly that game resembled many of the Pats blowouts in every stat but the final score  We simply could not stop the run or the screen pass

[Wayne Arnold]

8 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

 

No nonsense Mr Buscaglia and thanks  for your support. 

 

Just take the L and move on.