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Hapless Bills Fan

NFL Next Gen Stats - 6 Most Improved Players of 2019

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First one up:

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Josh Allen silencing his doubters?

Josh Allen was a polarizing QB prospect coming out of Wyoming in 2018, and his rookie season numbers (67.9 passer rating) didn't do him any favors with his doubters. But Allen has shown significant improvement in Year 2, notably in key areas for QB development: inside the tackle box and vs. the blitz. (....) Allen's split from inside the tackles looks more impressive since Week 5, throwing 10 TDs, 1 INT with a 103.2 rating on such passes. Allen has also improved vs. blitzes (2018: 2 TDs, 4 INTs, 58.1 passer rating; 2019: 8 TDs, 4 INTs, 83.6 passer rating) with a 7:0 TD-INT ratio and 109.0 passer rating vs. the blitz since Week 5.

 

http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/0ap3000001084100/next-gen-stats-compelling-figures-of-nfls-most-improved-players

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Funny that they mention versus the blitz after the last game. I trust Daboll will come up with a scheme to alleviate this concern in the future. (Of course, if you listen to WGR, Daboll should be fired posthaste!). 

Edited by TroutDog
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15 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

Funny that they mention versus the blitz after the last game. I trust Daboll will come up with a scheme to alleviate this concern in the future. (Of course, if you listen to WGR, Daboll should be fired posthaste!). 

 

I'm not all the way through my all-22 yet, but I can say this so far:

1) Especially early on, there were open check-down and hot throws Allen didn't take.  He was going for the deep shot.  We can't tell if he did that upon instructions from Daboll or if it was his call.  From listening to both pressers I would say "probably some of both".  Later on Allen "settled in" and took some of those, and we moved the ball.

2) That he didn't take the quick reads is not all on Allen.  At times, the guys who were running possible hot routes didn't modify appropriately to be "QB friendly" under pressure.  If that's not on their menu, then that is something Daboll and the coaches DO need to change.  I'm talking about you, Kroft.

2a) and of course, when a freakin' ball comes their way, our guys have to haul it in and hold on, because one way to get the blitzes to back off is to Make Them Pay.  And you can't do that if the receivers aren't catching.

3) No scheme will hold up against failure to execute or correct execution that is overpowered by a superior opponent.  Our guys were just Pwned sometimes. 

3a) Of course, one can make the argument that if the scheme puts a player in position where they're asked to execute over their skill level, it's a Bad Scheme.

 

And then there's this:

 

There's a reason the Ravens came into our game having allowed an average of 13.2 points in their last 6 games, including holding the SF49ers (currently the top-scoring team in the NFC, 2nd in the NFL) to 17 points. 

In case anyone missed it, the 49ers turned around and hung 48 points on the Saints, who have a "meh" (middle of the pack) defense.

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Dude just needs a little more talent around him.  Joshy's a keeper, just need that extra little umph to get him over the edge.  That's when you turn it to 11.

 

Sorry, I got trapped in a Spinal Tap trap.

 

Summary - Beane's got this.  2020 look out.

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14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not all the way through my all-22 yet, but I can say this so far:

1) Especially early on, there were open check-down and hot throws Allen didn't take.  He was going for the deep shot.  We can't tell if he did that upon instructions from Daboll or if it was his call.  From listening to both pressers I would say "probably some of both"

2) That he didn't take them is not all on Allen.  At times, the guys who were running possible hot routes didn't modify appropriately to be "QB friendly" under pressure.  If that's not on their menu, then that is something Daboll and the coaches do need to change.

3) No scheme will hold up against failure to execute or correct execution that is overpowered by a superior opponent.  Our guys were just Pwned sometimes. 

4) Of course, one can make the argument that if the scheme puts a player in position where they're asked to execute over their skill level, it's a Bad Scheme.

5) When a freakin' ball comes their way, our guys have to haul it in and hold on.

 

And then there's this:

 


I suspect, based on Josh’s own statement, that he was going for the kill. I really believe he wants to hit some homerun balls and it showed. He should have taken what he could to move the chains. 
 

Agreed on execution but you can develop schemes to limit the blitz. The drops were more than frustrating. Drove me bonkers. 

Edited by TroutDog
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28 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

Funny that they mention versus the blitz after the last game. I trust Daboll will come up with a scheme to alleviate this concern in the future. (Of course, if you listen to WGR, Daboll should be fired posthaste!). 

that link is from last week. I saw it at the end of last week and thought about posting it but didn't bother....those numbers have most definitely changed now. 

Edited by Stank_Nasty

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6 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

I suspect, based on Josh’s own statement, that he was going for the kill. I really believe he wants to hit some homer in balls and it showed. He should have taken what he could to move the chains. 

 

Listen to Daboll's presser carefully, with the knowledge in mind that to hit some deep shots is a #1 sure fire way to beat a Cover0 blitz.

 

 

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32 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

Funny that they mention versus the blitz after the last game. I trust Daboll will come up with a scheme to alleviate this concern in the future. (Of course, if you listen to WGR, Daboll should be fired posthaste!). 


as I mentioned before 

 

no more 4 receiver sets when they blitz constantly 

 

We needed to see more protection for Josh 

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38 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

Funny that they mention versus the blitz after the last game. I trust Daboll will come up with a scheme to alleviate this concern in the future. (Of course, if you listen to WGR, Daboll should be fired posthaste!). 

Exactly. I think Josh is smart enough and athletic enough to execute a game plane. Daboll needs to get a handful of plays that can be run from different formations to help against blitzes. Every receiver needs to know their hot route if Josh see’s it coming at the line.

Edited by atlbillsfan1975
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The problem is the talent of the team......if your offensive weapons are good enough they get open no matter what scheme is thrown at them by a defense.....and when they get the ball in their hands they make a guy miss and make big plays.

 

We need more Devin Singletary's

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19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Listen to Daboll's presser carefully, with the knowledge in mind that to hit some deep shots is a #1 sure fire way to beat a Cover0 blitz.

 

 

He has to complete them then. There were some chances according to Daboll.

6 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

The problem is the talent of the team......if your offensive weapons are good enough they get open no matter what scheme is thrown at them by a defense.....and when they get the ball in their hands they make a guy miss and make big plays.

 

We need more Devin Singletary's

Agree. More talent at OT and WR and some development from guys like Knox and Singletary.

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How about some designed bootlegs, roll outs and screens to back off the pressure on the blitz?  Daboll let Allen sit in the pocket and get pummeled all day long .
6 sacks and 12 other QB hits - how is that acceptable from your OC?

 

The last third down the Ravens had a free running safety come straight up the middle untouched because they knew Josh would be in the pocket.

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5 minutes ago, Mc1320 said:

How about some designed bootlegs, roll outs and screens to back off the pressure on the blitz?  Daboll let Allen sit in the pocket and get pummeled all day long .
6 sacks and 12 other QB hits - how is that acceptable from your OC?

 

The last third down the Ravens had a free running safety come straight up the middle untouched because they knew Josh would be in the pocket.

Can't roll out when they collapse the pocket on blitzes.  Also, they brought pressure to force Allen opposite side of Brown to ensure he couldn't find Brown cross field and hit him with a scramble pass. 

 

The only answer to cover 0 is to step up, make them pay deep or over the middle. 

 

The Ravens had zero respect for the pass game as will be the case with Pittsburgh and New England the next two weeks.  They will blitz and dare us to beat them with Allens arm.

 

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10 minutes ago, Mc1320 said:

How about some designed bootlegs, roll outs and screens to back off the pressure on the blitz?  Daboll let Allen sit in the pocket and get pummeled all day long .
6 sacks and 12 other QB hits - how is that acceptable from your OC?

 

The last third down the Ravens had a free running safety come straight up the middle untouched because they knew Josh would be in the pocket.

I'm with ya in ur general statement, but when a defense is blitzing that means theres opportunities to make them pay elsewhere & its on Allen to make those throws. Teams would be afraid to blitz vs Brady because he could diagnose where the pressure was coming from & make the correct read. I know comparing Allen to what Brady does is unfair, but just using that as an example that everyone can relate to.

This past Sunday Allen got blitzed like 80% of the time & there were times where open rushers got thru & Allen had no chance. But there were also times Allen left the pocket too soon where he didnt have to. These are parts of Allens game that hopefully will improve over time.

But Daboll would love to call some screen plays, especially vs a defense who's blitzing as much as the Ravens were. But all thruout the year, Allens throws on screenplays have been near disasters & now theyre pretty much nonexistent in the game plan.

I'm sure its something they've worked on in practice & you'd think with our athletic OL we'd have some success with them. But from what i've seen, Allen doesn't sell it good enough & he doesn't have that touch to throw it in there. His throws are more on a rope & as a result, the oncoming DE's or LBs get in the way & its just a mess of a play & a near disaster in the making. So with that being said, i think its probably wise we're not running more of them at this time.

Edited by brianthomas

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We get blitzed like that again go max pro instead of spreading teams out. 
Max pro limits the reads and traffic a qb will have to look through. 
 

Spreading the ravens out might’ve worked if we would’ve turned it into a basketball game and ran pick routes. Watching the coaches film I only really saw the td pass to Beasley as anything close. 

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4 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

as I mentioned before 

no more 4 receiver sets when they blitz constantly 

We needed to see more protection for Josh 

 

TBH I'm not sure that's the problem.   Although, we did give him better protection in the 2nd half.  Whatever adjustments we made, I'd like to understand why we couldn't make them earlier.

 

The more I look, the more I think that one of the biggest problems in this game was Josh going for the "chunk yards" instead of the "dink n dunk" plays, which on almost every play I've seen so far, were there and of course, if you keep dinking and dunking you move the chains and not only score, but keep the ball away from the Ravens offense. 

 

The question I have there is "why?"  Was that the game plan coming in - "we need to try to score 40 points so you gotta take big shots" or something?  Was the idea of being on the national stage again makes him feel he's got to show off his arm?  Is it that he really hasn't "bought in" to the "take what they give you"?  Or did he not see them?

 

I guess we'll find out in the coming weeks.

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

TBH I'm not sure that's the problem. 

 

The more I look, the more I think that one of the biggest problems in this game was Josh going for the "chunk yards" instead of the "dink n dunk" plays, which on almost every play I've seen so far, were there.

Yes

Next time can we please just get the ball out quick and let our guys get RAC. Those plays are higher percentage and still have the same effect as hitting deep shots as it relates to getting them out of the “0” blitz. 

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1 hour ago, brianthomas said:

I'm with ya in ur general statement, but when a defense is blitzing that means theres opportunities to make them pay elsewhere & its on Allen to make those throws. Teams would be afraid to blitz vs Brady because he could diagnose where the pressure was coming from & make the correct read. I know comparing Allen to what Brady does is unfair, but just using that as an example that everyone can relate to.

This past Sunday Allen got blitzed like 80% of the time & there were times where open rushers got thru & Allen had no chance. But there were also times Allen left the pocket too soon where he didnt have to. These are parts of Allens game that hopefully will improve over time.

But Daboll would love to call some screen plays, especially vs a defense who's blitzing as much as the Ravens were. But all thruout the year, Allens throws on screenplays have been near disasters & now theyre pretty much nonexistent in the game plan.

I'm sure its something they've worked on in practice & you'd think with our athletic OL we'd have some success with them. But from what i've seen, Allen doesn't sell it good enough & he doesn't have that touch to throw it in there. His throws are more on a rope & as a result, the oncoming DE's or LBs get in the way & its just a mess of a play & a near disaster in the making. So with that being said, i think its probably wise we're not running more of them at this time.

I disagree. It’s on the linemen and RB or WR to “ sell “ the screen , not so much on Allen. All he has to do is look downfield while taking his drop. His throws are fine on the screen , it’s just usually set up so poorly that defenders are not fooled and already closing in on the RB or pass recipient. It takes a certain patience , and the OL can’t make it too obvious. They’re just not good at it, and that’s a huge liability to an offense as it takes away one antidote to relentless blitzing. 

Edited by Boatdrinks

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5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not all the way through my all-22 yet, but I can say this so far:

1) Especially early on, there were open check-down and hot throws Allen didn't take.  He was going for the deep shot.  We can't tell if he did that upon instructions from Daboll or if it was his call.  From listening to both pressers I would say "probably some of both".  Later on Allen "settled in" and took some of those, and we moved the ball.

2) That he didn't take the quick reads is not all on Allen.  At times, the guys who were running possible hot routes didn't modify appropriately to be "QB friendly" under pressure.  If that's not on their menu, then that is something Daboll and the coaches DO need to change.  I'm talking about you, Kroft.

2a) and of course, when a freakin' ball comes their way, our guys have to haul it in and hold on, because one way to get the blitzes to back off is to Make Them Pay.  And you can't do that if the receivers aren't catching.

3) No scheme will hold up against failure to execute or correct execution that is overpowered by a superior opponent.  Our guys were just Pwned sometimes. 

3a) Of course, one can make the argument that if the scheme puts a player in position where they're asked to execute over their skill level, it's a Bad Scheme.

 

And then there's this:

 

There's a reason the Ravens came into our game having allowed an average of 13.2 points in their last 6 games, including holding the SF49ers (currently the top-scoring team in the NFC, 2nd in the NFL) to 17 points. 

In case anyone missed it, the 49ers turned around and hung 48 points on the Saints, who have a "meh" (middle of the pack) defense.

This is almost exactly what I saw on tape re: offense. Not going to look too deeply at defense as we won’t use that game plan again unless we meet the Ravens again this year. Well done

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8 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Can't roll out when they collapse the pocket on blitzes.  Also, they brought pressure to force Allen opposite side of Brown to ensure he couldn't find Brown cross field and hit him with a scramble pass. 

 

The only answer to cover 0 is to step up, make them pay deep or over the middle. 

 

The Ravens had zero respect for the pass game as will be the case with Pittsburgh and New England the next two weeks.  They will blitz and dare us to beat them with Allens arm.

 

 

The bad thing is the Steelers, Pats, and Jets saw this tape.  The difference is they don’t have the same talent as the Ravens.  They were well coached, and without being at the game, I suspect at least a few times he could have hit someone underneath.  That doesn’t mean I don’t like Josh, just he’s a work in progress.

 

I’ve said several times, P. Manning was 3-13 his first year due to a lack of talent and his decision making.  Brady didn’t look that sharp his first two years, but had an incredible defense.  Outside of the Ravens he has dramatically improved after the first four games.

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8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

TBH I'm not sure that's the problem.   Although, we did give him better protection in the 2nd half.  Whatever adjustments we made, I'd like to understand why we couldn't make them earlier.

 

The more I look, the more I think that one of the biggest problems in this game was Josh going for the "chunk yards" instead of the "dink n dunk" plays, which on almost every play I've seen so far, were there and of course, if you keep dinking and dunking you move the chains and not only score, but keep the ball away from the Ravens offense. 

 

The question I have there is "why?"  Was that the game plan coming in - "we need to try to score 40 points so you gotta take big shots" or something?  Was the idea of being on the national stage again makes him feel he's got to show off his arm?  Is it that he really hasn't "bought in" to the "take what they give you"?  Or did he not see them?

 

I guess we'll find out in the coming weeks.

 

You hope for a flag I guess.  

 

It's not like he was overthrowing them 5 to 10 yards ahead of the guy.  (well maybe 5) but they looked close enough for the most part.  Just a few steps off.  

 

Now ...  DROPS were a killer.  

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Just now, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

You hope for a flag I guess.  

 

It's not like he was overthrowing them 5 to 10 yards ahead of the guy.  (well maybe 5) but they looked close enough for the most part.  Just a few steps off.  

 

Now ...  DROPS were a killer.  

 

They were both killer

 

You could tell the overthrows were in Allen's head for a while.  He was seen on the sidelines after the first 3 series by himself looking morose instead of looking at his Surface with Barkley and Dorsey to see what open guys he was missing and talking to the OL coach about blocking adjustments.  That's one reason I think he's been hitting them regularly in practice. 

 

I thought his platform was all messed up on those throws due to pressure but others assure me he had plenty of time and space 😁.  Some of Allen's best throws come when he's off platform and off balance so maybe it doesn't matter as much as I think it does.

 

 

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35 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

The bad thing is the Steelers, Pats, and Jets saw this tape.  The difference is they don’t have the same talent as the Ravens.  They were well coached, and without being at the game, I suspect at least a few times he could have hit someone underneath.  That doesn’t mean I don’t like Josh, just he’s a work in progress.

 

Josh had shorter quicker passes he could have hit on most of those throws.   Especially when it was 3rd and 4 or if he could have hit one on 2nd down and made it 3rd and 3 instead of 3rd and 12 or whatever.  You can see some in network film and more on all-22. 

 

What I don't know is the game plan and the direction of Josh's reads, so that doesn't mean I give Daboll a pass.  I thought the OL coach also was very slow to make adjustments - the difference in protection at the end of the game is dramatic vs the 1Q.

 

Part of it is Kroft >>>> Knox when it comes to blocking.

 

35 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

I’ve said several times, P. Manning was 3-13 his first year due to a lack of talent and his decision making.  Brady didn’t look that sharp his first two years, but had an incredible defense.  Outside of the Ravens he has dramatically improved after the first four games.

 

Agreed.

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9 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Can't roll out when they collapse the pocket on blitzes. 

 

And yet, Allen did, and threw too.  I have to give it to him, his ability to escape is quite astounding.  Of course, then there were a few times when he had a pocket, but no longer trusted it and bailed early

 

Quote

Also, they brought pressure to force Allen opposite side of Brown to ensure he couldn't find Brown cross field and hit him with a scramble pass. 

 

True.  I thought they diagnosed our 2ndary routes well and did a good job forcing us to the opposite side.  They obviously knew Allen's tendencies when protection breaks. 

 

Quote

The only answer to cover 0 is to step up, make them pay deep or over the middle. 

 

To my understanding, this is NOT true.  That's the textbook easy answer, but it's not the only answer.

 

Quote

The Ravens had zero respect for the pass game as will be the case with Pittsburgh and New England the next two weeks.  They will blitz and dare us to beat them with Allens arm.

 

It is true they had little respect for it, but the pass game deserved more respect than Allen made them give it.  He had open guys on makeable  throws in the 1Q and he didn't take them.  He acknowledged as much in his presser.  It also deserved more respect than our WR made them give it in the 3Q.  4, arguably 5 drops.  Grrrr.

 

We can take their dare, it depends upon whether 1) Our guys step up and catch when it's there 2) Why Allen persistently passed up those throws in the 1Q.  Was it between his ears?  Or in the game plan?  Either way how do we adjust?

 

Watching the film, one of the few bright spots I take from this is Kroft in pass protection.  He is a solid blocker.  I don't know what's up with him and Allen on pass routes, but if we could get him going there it would help a lot, vs Knox who is a "work in progress" in both aspects.  Some good, some stunning lapses.

 

I guess one thing I'll say is that neither NE nor Pitts run the same kind of pressure defense that the Ravens did.  That's not to say that they won't try to copycat elements of it.  NE lives on confusing coverage and trying to bait the QB into the pick, as they did with both Allen and Darnold earlier in the year.

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12 hours ago, vincec said:

He has to complete them then. There were some chances according to Daboll.

 

There were some chances according to eyeballs.  The thing is, you got to keep the team on the field and move the chains.  At some point, you need to just take what they give you and move the chains.  That was really the difference in the game, especially early on.

 

I'm not sure that it was "on Josh" that he was going for the deep shot so much.  I think that may have been the game plan - that his reads were to take the deep shot if it was there.

I base this on clues in Daboll's presser and McDermott's.  They said different things this time.  Josh makes it sound as though it's all on him, but he always does.

 

12 hours ago, vincec said:

Agree. More talent at OT and WR and some development from guys like Knox and Singletary.

 

Knox frustrates me tremendously right now.

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