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Hapless Bills Fan

NFL Next Gen Stats - 6 Most Improved Players of 2019

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There were some chances according to eyeballs.  The thing is, you got to keep the team on the field and move the chains.  At some point, you need to just take what they give you and move the chains.  That was really the difference in the game, especially early on.

 

I'm not sure that it was "on Josh" that he was going for the deep shot so much.  I think that may have been the game plan - that his reads were to take the deep shot if it was there.

I base this on clues in Daboll's presser and McDermott's.  They said different things this time.  Josh makes it sound as though it's all on him, but he always does.

 

 

Knox frustrates me tremendously right now.

 

Knox just needs more time; I'm told that TE is the most difficult position for a rookie to make the leap from college to the NFL 

🤣

 

In all seriousness: great thread. Incredibly encouraging to see his development vs the blitz. This kid is going to be good. 

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Honestly surprised to not see Lamar Jackson on the list. Not complaining, but he'd probably be most improved statistically. 

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7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

This is almost exactly what I saw on tape re: offense. Not going to look too deeply at defense as we won’t use that game plan again unless we meet the Ravens again this year. Well done

 

Thanks.  OK, I'll say one more thing.  The difference in pass protection near the end of the game vs the beginning is epic.  We clearly made some adjustments - but why did it take so long?  Basically, until the half.  By the time we made those changes, Allen was struggling with "happy feet" and struggling not to look at the DL, for good reason.

 

I would love to know what's up with Kroft in the passing game.  We brought the guy in for good reason - he has demonstrated sure hands and route running chops.  Is he struggling to pick up Daboll's offense?  Is it just lack of reps with Allen?  Because Knox is so frustrating.  His blocking is just as inconsistent as his pass catching.  He can make some great blocks at times, and then he can just lose it in spectacularly bad fashion.  He needs to work out a yodel or something to let Allen know he's about to get blindside nailed.

 

 

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13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Listen to Daboll's presser carefully, with the knowledge in mind that to hit some deep shots is a #1 sure fire way to beat a Cover0 blitz.

 

 

 

Yep. It was gameplan. When people hear the phrase "take what the defense gives you" they presume it means checking the ball down rather than trying to force it deep. But it means what it says... take what they give you... the Ravens were giving the Bills 1on1 deep shots. So you can't come out and try and force a short passing game into the teeth of a defense that is prepared to stop that.

 

I watched the all22 back last night and the only time Bills receivers were getting separation was when they were running deep because there was so much cover 0 that there was space back there. The Ravens did an awesome job of taking away those crossing routes that Brown and particularly Beasley have run so well this season. One of the adjustments it appeared the Bills made in the 2nd half was to send Knox across the field more and he did get a little more joy separating because I am not sure the Ravens quite knew whose responsibility that was in the scheme but for a myriad of reasons the Bills couldn't take advantage. 

 

Ultimately the drops hurt but the real critical point of the game was those first two Bills drives. If Allen hits one of those two deep balls would it have caused the Ravens to adjust? Can't say for certain but it might and that could have made things easier on us all day. 

 

Was a fascinating game to watch back by the way. Was a really interesting chess match on both sides of the ball. The Ravens are extremely well coached and the Bills are a pretty well coached team too. 

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26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. It was gameplan. When people hear the phrase "take what the defense gives you" they presume it means checking the ball down rather than trying to force it deep. But it means what it says... take what they give you... the Ravens were giving the Bills 1on1 deep shots. So you can't come out and try and force a short passing game into the teeth of a defense that is prepared to stop that.

 

I watched the all22 back last night and the only time Bills receivers were getting separation was when they were running deep because there was so much cover 0 that there was space back there. The Ravens did an awesome job of taking away those crossing routes that Brown and particularly Beasley have run so well this season. One of the adjustments it appeared the Bills made in the 2nd half was to send Knox across the field more and he did get a little more joy separating because I am not sure the Ravens quite knew whose responsibility that was in the scheme but for a myriad of reasons the Bills couldn't take advantage. 

 

Ultimately the drops hurt but the real critical point of the game was those first two Bills drives. If Allen hits one of those two deep balls would it have caused the Ravens to adjust? Can't say for certain but it might and that could have made things easier on us all day. 

 

Was a fascinating game to watch back by the way. Was a really interesting chess match on both sides of the ball. The Ravens are extremely well coached and the Bills are a pretty well coached team too. 

Unfortunately Allen is awful at this point with the deep ball so hopefully they can find other ways to beat this type of coverage.... The Dolphins defense ran a lot of this against the Bills in their 2nd meeting and Allen was able to make them pay, but the Dolphins aren't in the same ball park as the Raven/Steelers defense. I expect the Steelers to do the same. 

Edited by ScottLaw

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46 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. It was gameplan. When people hear the phrase "take what the defense gives you" they presume it means checking the ball down rather than trying to force it deep. But it means what it says... take what they give you... the Ravens were giving the Bills 1on1 deep shots. So you can't come out and try and force a short passing game into the teeth of a defense that is prepared to stop that.

 

I watched the all22 back last night and the only time Bills receivers were getting separation was when they were running deep

 

I'm not sure what you're seeing, but I call shenanigans.  Here are a couple screen shots from the 3rd drive (1Q).  The top 2 are 1st and 10 after Allen's successful pass to Singletary for a 1st down conversion.  That's Knox between the hashes, McKensie near the 35, and Beasley on the 30.  Beasley appears to have his man beat and to be looking back for the ball.  Safe throw as if Allen misses, no Raven would have a play.

image.thumb.png.44930b137badf8f782ff75e426b34b59.pngimage.thumb.png.a3ffba7fe73f344c55a57f11a30bee70.png

Here's a better shot of Knox open, ready, and waiting.  Slightly less safe throw but he's moving back to the R so Allen can lead him that way and trust him to make a play.

image.thumb.png.d97a3a7700d82131ec5ed65de54613d6.png

Allen chose the more difficult throw to McKensie, who was open, but by that time Allen had rolled right and throwing on the run with 2 Ravens chasing him. 

image.thumb.png.f6fcf90d8cabc9b81e9554fa5e9fe22a.png

But he had protection early, and he had targets who appear to me to be open and looking for the ball.

 

Here's 2nd and 10 on the same drive.  OK, I grant you he's not a WR, but there's Singletary on the L at the 25 with plenty of room to make a catch and gain some yards - no defender within 10 yds of him.  You must have a WR?  OK, how about Brown at the 27 yd line?  Allen has a pocket at this point, and while Brown is at the LOS the play design has no defender within 5 yds of him, so he should be able to get some yards.  And Singletary is still over there all alone  growing moss.

image.thumb.png.c8d5ae3c1397d3d60cba6bff1f99d939.pngimage.thumb.png.4cacbf988e8dc591018c68233d070b2c.png

 

So Allen could have gotten yards on both 1st and 2nd down, and then it's 3rd and short instead of 3rd and 10.

 

I could keep going, but my point is that when Allen said in his post game presser that he needed to do a better job taking some easier throws, it's because they were there and he knew it.

 

Quote

Ultimately the drops hurt but the real critical point of the game was those first two Bills drives. If Allen hits one of those two deep balls would it have caused the Ravens to adjust? Can't say for certain but it might and that could have made things easier on us all day. 

 

Yes, certainly.  But the above screen shots illustrate that Allen had open choices, and passed them up in favor of lower percentage deep throws that are especially low percentage for a QB who is facing challenging varied blitzes and has struggled with deep throws this season.  If it was part of the game plan early for Allen to give preference to those deep shots, then it's a Bad Game Plan, one which would fall into the category that Daboll sometimes falls too much in love with the X's and O's and the abstract "best solution" instead of minding what the Jimmies and Joes can actually execute.

 

This is how our offense will live or die - not based upon Allen's problematic ability to hit deep throws that are low percentage for any QB but based upon Allen's willingness to identify and make the "bunnies" that the defense gives him and trust his guys to make some yards.

 

Quote

Was a fascinating game to watch back by the way. Was a really interesting chess match on both sides of the ball. The Ravens are extremely well coached and the Bills are a pretty well coached team too. 

 

Agreed, but IMO the Bills lost the game when they failed to adjust quickly enough to what the Jimmies and Joes on our team were actually capable of executing.  To what degree that's on Allen rather than on Daboll, Dorsey, and Bobby Johnson, I can't tell you, but I'm quite sure Allen has the authority to hit a seemingly wide open Knox or Bease on 1st down or Singletary or Brown on 2nd.  And he knows it.

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14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Listen to Daboll's presser carefully, with the knowledge in mind that to hit some deep shots is a #1 sure fire way to beat a Cover0 blitz.

 

 


I did and I agree but, for the remainder of this year, I believe Josh should be concentrating on moving the chains with an occasional long ball to keep the D true. 
 

Not to mention with the harassment Josh was getting, they needed to be working on the quick passing game. You can expose cover 0 that way as well if one breaks. 

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9 minutes ago, TroutDog said:


I did and I agree but, for the remainder of this year, I believe Josh should be concentrating on moving the chains with an occasional long ball to keep the D true. 
 

Not to mention with the harassment Josh was getting, they needed to be working on the quick passing game. You can expose cover 0 that way as well if one breaks. 

 

No argument from me at all on these points.  You are 100% correct.  For the remainder of this year, Allen needs to save his deep shots for when he's got good protection and can take his time, and when the wind isn't gusty and swirling.

 

This is Lamar Jackson's NextGen Stats pass chart for Sunday's game.  I put it up to make 3 points:

1) no one is talking about Lamar struggling to hit the deep pass and he has a couple very very good WR - fast and good at adjustments.  He only attempted 2 past 20 yds. 

2) He was 40% (2 of 5) between 10 and 20 yds.

3) MAYBE THERE'S A REASON FOR THAT and the visitors out-game-planned the home team for the weather conditions.

 

image.thumb.png.4fd909a3b9f529530d04a9129d71c486.png

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43 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not sure what you're seeing, but I call shenanigans.  Here are a couple screen shots from the 3rd drive (1Q).  The top 2 are 1st and 10 after Allen's successful pass to Singletary for a 1st down conversion.  That's Knox between the hashes, McKensie near the 35, and Beasley on the 30.  Beasley appears to have his man beat and to be looking back for the ball.  Safe throw as if Allen misses, no Raven would have a play.

image.thumb.png.44930b137badf8f782ff75e426b34b59.pngimage.thumb.png.a3ffba7fe73f344c55a57f11a30bee70.png

Here's a better shot of Knox open, ready, and waiting.  Slightly less safe throw but he's moving back to the R so Allen can lead him that way and trust him to make a play.

image.thumb.png.d97a3a7700d82131ec5ed65de54613d6.png

Allen chose the more difficult throw to McKensie, who was open, but by that time Allen had rolled right and throwing on the run with 2 Ravens chasing him. 

image.thumb.png.f6fcf90d8cabc9b81e9554fa5e9fe22a.png

But he had protection early, and he had targets who appear to me to be open and looking for the ball.

 

Here's 2nd and 10 on the same drive.  OK, I grant you he's not a WR, but there's Singletary on the L at the 25 with plenty of room to make a catch and gain some yards - no defender within 10 yds of him.  You must have a WR?  OK, how about Brown at the 27 yd line?  Allen has a pocket at this point, and while Brown is at the LOS the play design has no defender within 5 yds of him, so he should be able to get some yards.  And Singletary is still over there all alone  growing moss.

image.thumb.png.c8d5ae3c1397d3d60cba6bff1f99d939.pngimage.thumb.png.4cacbf988e8dc591018c68233d070b2c.png

 

So Allen could have gotten yards on both 1st and 2nd down, and then it's 3rd and short instead of 3rd and 10.

 

I could keep going, but my point is that when Allen said in his post game presser that he needed to do a better job taking some easier throws, it's because they were there and he knew it.

 

 

Yes, certainly.  But the above screen shots illustrate that Allen had open choices, and passed them up in favor of lower percentage deep throws that are especially low percentage for a QB who is facing challenging varied blitzes and has struggled with deep throws this season.  If it was part of the game plan early for Allen to give preference to those deep shots, then it's a Bad Game Plan, one which would fall into the category that Daboll sometimes falls too much in love with the X's and O's and the abstract "best solution" instead of minding what the Jimmies and Joes can actually execute.

 

This is how our offense will live or die - not based upon Allen's problematic ability to hit deep throws that are low percentage for any QB but based upon Allen's willingness to identify and make the "bunnies" that the defense gives him and trust his guys to make some yards.

 

 

Agreed, but IMO the Bills lost the game when they failed to adjust quickly enough to what the Jimmies and Joes on our team were actually capable of executing.  To what degree that's on Allen rather than on Daboll, Dorsey, and Bobby Johnson, I can't tell you, but I'm quite sure Allen has the authority to hit a seemingly wide open Knox or Bease on 1st down or Singletary or Brown on 2nd.  And he knows it.

 

I was talking specifically about receivers (though include Knox in that). There were some throws to Singletary but again there was a reason they were trying to go deep. It was what Baltimore was giving them. There was the odd makeable throw - but even if Josh throws that ball to Knox it is a minimal gain. The Ravens took away those throws very well all day.

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44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No argument from me at all on these points.  You are 100% correct.  For the remainder of this year, Allen needs to save his deep shots for when he's got good protection and can take his time, and when the wind isn't gusty and swirling.

 

This is Lamar Jackson's NextGen Stats pass chart for Sunday's game.  I put it up to make 3 points:

1) no one is talking about Lamar struggling to hit the deep pass and he has a couple very very good WR - fast and good at adjustments.  He only attempted 2 past 20 yds. 

2) He was 40% (2 of 5) between 10 and 20 yds.

3) MAYBE THERE'S A REASON FOR THAT and the visitors out-game-planned the home team for the weather conditions.

 

image.thumb.png.4fd909a3b9f529530d04a9129d71c486.png

 

The reason for that is partly influenced by what the opposite D are ***** too. The most interesting part of that chart is not a single throw between the hashes. The Bills were playing to take away the middle of the field as much as possible and were willing to give Jackson short throws to the outside as a result - because he throws those less well. Compare the map of the Bills and 49ers games against the 5 or 6 games Lamar played prior to that. They were both able to restrict him in the middle of the field.

 

I am absolutely a proponent of the Bills operating a short and intermediate rhythm passing offense - I have been for years. It was one of my biggest knocks on Tyrod he was the least effective rhythm passer in the league (among starters) I am not someone who has banged on about the deep ball all season because I care less about that than a lot of people. But Sunday was a day where hitting one would potentially have changed the game because that was the play the Baltimore defense was most vulnerable to and it might have forced them to change their whole plan. Take what the defense gives you does not always mean the checkdown.

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16 hours ago, TroutDog said:

Funny that they mention versus the blitz after the last game. I trust Daboll will come up with a scheme to alleviate this concern in the future. (Of course, if you listen to WGR, Daboll should be fired posthaste!). 

 

 

Well, this is a know  issue, everyone on the NFL is aware of this, even the talking heads in Sirus NFL radio,  He is getting however: just not against the Ravens.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

And yet, Allen did, and threw too.  I have to give it to him, his ability to escape is quite astounding.  Of course, then there were a few times when he had a pocket, but no longer trusted it and bailed early

 

 

True.  I thought they diagnosed our 2ndary routes well and did a good job forcing us to the opposite side.  They obviously knew Allen's tendencies when protection breaks. 

 

 

To my understanding, this is NOT true.  That's the textbook easy answer, but it's not the only answer.

 

 

It is true they had little respect for it, but the pass game deserved more respect than Allen made them give it.  He had open guys on makeable  throws in the 1Q and he didn't take them.  He acknowledged as much in his presser.  It also deserved more respect than our WR made them give it in the 3Q.  4, arguably 5 drops.  Grrrr.

 

We can take their dare, it depends upon whether 1) Our guys step up and catch when it's there 2) Why Allen persistently passed up those throws in the 1Q.  Was it between his ears?  Or in the game plan?  Either way how do we adjust?

 

Watching the film, one of the few bright spots I take from this is Kroft in pass protection.  He is a solid blocker.  I don't know what's up with him and Allen on pass routes, but if we could get him going there it would help a lot, vs Knox who is a "work in progress" in both aspects.  Some good, some stunning lapses.

 

I guess one thing I'll say is that neither NE nor Pitts run the same kind of pressure defense that the Ravens did.  That's not to say that they won't try to copycat elements of it.  NE lives on confusing coverage and trying to bait the QB into the pick, as they did with both Allen and Darnold earlier in the year.

 

That's the thing...Pitt has maybe even a better front 7 than Baltimore, but they don't have the kind of man cover DBs Baltimore does.  They play a lot more zone.  There will be similar pressure, but the windows won't be as tight.

 

NE is the opposite.  They have a similar secondary (maybe even better), but their front 7 isn't nearly as fast or explosive, so there will be more time and chances for Josh to escape.

 

They are still bad matchups, but I take some solace in the fact that neither of them can do to the Bills what Baltimore did.

Edited by Mikey152
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17 hours ago, TroutDog said:

Funny that they mention versus the blitz after the last game. I trust Daboll will come up with a scheme to alleviate this concern in the future. (Of course, if you listen to WGR, Daboll should be fired posthaste!). 

 

I am not sure this is something he can scheme.  Allen needs to identify hot reads better, make sure people are in the right protections up front to allow him to know where the pressure will be coming from in most cases, and ultimately be able to make them pay for blitzing by hitting deep balls against singled up receivers.  The way you get teams to stop blitzing is to make them pay for it.  

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2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

I am not sure this is something he can scheme.  Allen needs to identify hot reads better, make sure people are in the right protections up front to allow him to know where the pressure will be coming from in most cases, and ultimately be able to make them pay for blitzing by hitting deep balls against singled up receivers.  The way you get teams to stop blitzing is to make them pay for it.  


Agreed 100% but during the game (only watched it live), didn’t see enough chips or struggling linemen getting help. Perhaps they did and I missed it. 
 

I would prefer, however, that Dabs goes back to the slants a la the Pats and let those break as opposed to the long ball six times. 

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19 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

The problem is the talent of the team......if your offensive weapons are good enough they get open no matter what scheme is thrown at them by a defense.....and when they get the ball in their hands they make a guy miss and make big plays.

 

We need more Devin Singletary's

 

DING!  DING!  We have a winner!!!  :thumbsup:   I have been saying this for a while now.  Beasley and Brown are nice additions but we need more -- at least two or three guys among the WRs, TEs, and RBs who are significant upgrades over who we have now not named Beasley, Brown or Singletary.  Allen has made tremendous strides compared to where he was at the end of last season, and he's continued to improve throughout the season so he still hasn't reached his ceiling, but the Bills don't have enough offensive talent to help him move to the next level, from competent to good.  They need to acquire more for next season.

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10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I was talking specifically about receivers (though include Knox in that). There were some throws to Singletary but again there was a reason they were trying to go deep. It was what Baltimore was giving them. There was the odd makeable throw - but even if Josh throws that ball to Knox it is a minimal gain. The Ravens took away those throws very well all day.

 

LOL Gunner.  Knox is at least 6 yds past the LOS, and giving his "angry run" abilities I give him a couple more.  Either way, it's 1st down; he gains 6, we have 2 more downs to get 4, instead of 1st and 10, 2nd and 10, 3rd and 10.  That's the whole point of taking what the defense gives you underneath; you might not break the big play, but you might persuade them they need to cover some folks better and back off the 0 Blitz.

 

Your claim was the Poe-Birds were giving Allen no choice but to throw deep.  I show you two examples where Allen had alternatives including 2 WR.  Allen had jailbreaks at times and no time to throw; other times he had a hot option on the blitz, but the blitz surprised him and he didn't take it.  At other times, he had time for those short passes and they were there.  Not just "odd makeable throws".

 

Allen said in his presser that he needed to complete more passes "early in the game".  That's because the passes were there, and he knew it. 

 

Jim Kubiak on TBN (paywall, think there's a trial) points out several other plays where Allen had receivers open underneath.  He knows it too.

 

So there we have it.  We have screen captures; we have what Josh Allen said, we have former QB and QB coach writing for The Buffalo News saying it. 

 

I was joking with someone that I knew you wouldn't acknowledge my point.  He asked if I'd turned purple yet; "no, because I was never holding my breath"

 

Bonus screen capture: 2nd and 10 with less than a minute in the first half at the Balt 36.   Allen is looking for a deep throw and takes a 7 yd sack.   That's Beasley on the rt hash at the 32 yd line, McKensie on the L at the 30, and Singletary with no one within 5 yds of him out on the 41. 

image.thumb.png.57398b1897bdca617960d2a44334f022.png

On 3rd and 17, Allen hits Beasley for a 4 yd pass which goes for 14 (and we kick a FG).   If it didn't have to go an extra 7 yds, maybe we get 7.

 

C'est la Vie.

 

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9 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

I am not sure this is something he can scheme.  Allen needs to identify hot reads better, make sure people are in the right protections up front to allow him to know where the pressure will be coming from in most cases, and ultimately be able to make them pay for blitzing by hitting deep balls against singled up receivers.  The way you get teams to stop blitzing is to make them pay for it.  

 

The last sentence is true. but Allen needs to know his solutions (hot reads) better - protections would be good, but the Ravens were genuinely PhD level confusing on the blitz. The point is that one can make a team pay for the blitz without hitting deep balls, and sometimes the quick hit is the better solution as it can be almost impossible to stop. (The deep ball, though, is especially effective against Cover 0 blitz)

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4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

LOL Gunner.  Knox is at least 6 yds past the LOS, and giving his "angry run" abilities I give him a couple more.  Either way, it's 1st down; he gains 6, we have 2 more downs to get 4, instead of 1st and 10, 2nd and 10, 3rd and 10.  That's the whole point of taking what the defense gives you underneath; you might not break the big play, but you might persuade them they need to cover some folks better and back off the 0 Blitz.

 

Your claim was the Poe-Birds were giving Allen no choice but to throw deep.  I show you two examples where Allen had alternatives including 2 WR.  Allen had jailbreaks at times and no time to throw; other times he had a hot option on the blitz, but the blitz surprised him and he didn't take it.  At other times, he had time for those short passes and they were there.  Not just "odd makeable throws".

 

Allen said in his presser that he needed to complete more passes "early in the game".  That's because the passes were there, and he knew it. 

 

Jim Kubiak on TBN (paywall, think there's a trial) points out several other plays where Allen had receivers open underneath.  He knows it too.

 

So there we have it.  We have screen captures; we have what Josh Allen said, we have former QB and QB coach writing for The Buffalo News saying it. 

 

I was joking with someone that I knew you wouldn't acknowledge my point.  He asked if I'd turned purple yet; "no, because I was never holding my breath"

 

Bonus screen capture: 2nd and 10 with less than a minute in the first half at the Balt 36.   Allen is looking for a deep throw and takes a 7 yd sack.   That's Beasley on the rt hash at the 32 yd line, McKensie on the L at the 30, and Singletary with no one within 5 yds of him out on the 41. 

image.thumb.png.57398b1897bdca617960d2a44334f022.png

On 3rd and 17, Allen hits Beasley for a 4 yd pass which goes for 14 (and we kick a FG).   If it didn't have to go an extra 7 yds, maybe we get 7.

 

C'est la Vie.

 

 

The thing is I wasn't disagreeing that he needed to complete more balls early in the game. I was saying the Ravens did a good job (I still content a very good job) of taking the short throws to receivers - primarily Brown and Beasley but the tight ends too - away. They are the throws that really get Josh in rhythm typically. What they were giving the Bills was lots of opportunities to beat them deep. The Bills were trying to take those opportunities - especially early - likely because they knew it would open things up for them. 

 

I do not disagree at all then when the Ravens brought max pressure and blitzed with 6 guys Josh should have got it his hots quicker and with more regularity. I said that immediately after the game. But I think they threw a lot of deep balls - especially early because that was what the defense was giving them and they tried to open things up. 

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The last sentence is true. but Allen needs to know his solutions (hot reads) better - protections would be good, but the Ravens were genuinely PhD level confusing on the blitz. The point is that one can make a team pay for the blitz without hitting deep balls, and sometimes the quick hit is the better solution as it can be almost impossible to stop. (The deep ball, though, is especially effective against Cover 0 blitz)

 

And I agree 100% with this. 

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10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The last sentence is true. but Allen needs to know his solutions (hot reads) better - protections would be good, but the Ravens were genuinely PhD level confusing on the blitz. The point is that one can make a team pay for the blitz without hitting deep balls, and sometimes the quick hit is the better solution as it can be almost impossible to stop. (The deep ball, though, is especially effective against Cover 0 blitz)

 

True enough...I am just interested in why they didn't run any posts against the Cover 0 to the middle of the field where there was nobody there...

 

Its easier to get someone open on a diagonal running route that puts a DB in the trail position most times than a vertical route and maybe an easier throw for Allen

Edited by matter2003

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On 12/11/2019 at 7:17 AM, machine gun kelly said:

 

The bad thing is the Steelers, Pats, and Jets saw this tape.  The difference is they don’t have the same talent as the Ravens.  They were well coached, and without being at the game, I suspect at least a few times he could have hit someone underneath.  That doesn’t mean I don’t like Josh, just he’s a work in progress.

 

I’ve said several times, P. Manning was 3-13 his first year due to a lack of talent and his decision making.  Brady didn’t look that sharp his first two years, but had an incredible defense.  Outside of the Ravens he has dramatically improved after the first four games.

The Steelers' D talent is pretty comparable to the Ravens. Great front seven plus an elite safety (Fitzpatrick) and a shutdown corner in Hayden.

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On 12/11/2019 at 9:40 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not sure what you're seeing, but I call shenanigans.  Here are a couple screen shots from the 3rd drive (1Q).  The top 2 are 1st and 10 after Allen's successful pass to Singletary for a 1st down conversion.  That's Knox between the hashes, McKensie near the 35, and Beasley on the 30.  Beasley appears to have his man beat and to be looking back for the ball.  Safe throw as if Allen misses, no Raven would have a play.

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Here's a better shot of Knox open, ready, and waiting.  Slightly less safe throw but he's moving back to the R so Allen can lead him that way and trust him to make a play.

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Allen chose the more difficult throw to McKensie, who was open, but by that time Allen had rolled right and throwing on the run with 2 Ravens chasing him. 

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But he had protection early, and he had targets who appear to me to be open and looking for the ball.

 

Here's 2nd and 10 on the same drive.  OK, I grant you he's not a WR, but there's Singletary on the L at the 25 with plenty of room to make a catch and gain some yards - no defender within 10 yds of him.  You must have a WR?  OK, how about Brown at the 27 yd line?  Allen has a pocket at this point, and while Brown is at the LOS the play design has no defender within 5 yds of him, so he should be able to get some yards.  And Singletary is still over there all alone  growing moss.

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So Allen could have gotten yards on both 1st and 2nd down, and then it's 3rd and short instead of 3rd and 10.

 

I could keep going, but my point is that when Allen said in his post game presser that he needed to do a better job taking some easier throws, it's because they were there and he knew it.

 

 

Yes, certainly.  But the above screen shots illustrate that Allen had open choices, and passed them up in favor of lower percentage deep throws that are especially low percentage for a QB who is facing challenging varied blitzes and has struggled with deep throws this season.  If it was part of the game plan early for Allen to give preference to those deep shots, then it's a Bad Game Plan, one which would fall into the category that Daboll sometimes falls too much in love with the X's and O's and the abstract "best solution" instead of minding what the Jimmies and Joes can actually execute.

 

This is how our offense will live or die - not based upon Allen's problematic ability to hit deep throws that are low percentage for any QB but based upon Allen's willingness to identify and make the "bunnies" that the defense gives him and trust his guys to make some yards.

 

 

Agreed, but IMO the Bills lost the game when they failed to adjust quickly enough to what the Jimmies and Joes on our team were actually capable of executing.  To what degree that's on Allen rather than on Daboll, Dorsey, and Bobby Johnson, I can't tell you, but I'm quite sure Allen has the authority to hit a seemingly wide open Knox or Bease on 1st down or Singletary or Brown on 2nd.  And he knows it.

Disagree on Knox being open there.  As soon as Josh ***** his arm to throw the defender, who is 1 yard away would be on top of Knox to knock that away or at least lay some serious wood on Knox.

 

Other images I agree.  There were definitely targets to be had there.

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9 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Disagree on Knox being open there.  As soon as Josh ***** his arm to throw the defender, who is 1 yard away would be on top of Knox to knock that away or at least lay some serious wood on Knox.

 

Other images I agree.  There were definitely targets to be had there.

 

Basically, it's the job of the TE to make that catch and hold on through "serious wood"

 

This is the NFL.  A defender 1 yd away is a ton of space.  Now I'll grant you it doesn't look as though Allen has a clear throwing lane in the shot I posted, he would have to move a bit.

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1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Basically, it's the job of the TE to make that catch and hold on through "serious wood"

 

It is but one... Its Knox we are talking about here.  Two the defender was in good position to make a play.  While it is the TE's job to catch through "serious wood," it's the defenders job to make sure he doesn't.  Looking at the images, to me the throw Josh made had a better chance of succeeding.

Edited by Scott7975

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1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

It is but one... Its Knox we are talking about here.  Two the defender was in good position to make a play.  While it is the TE's job to catch through "serious wood," it's the defenders job to make sure he doesn't.  Looking at the images, to me the throw Josh made had a better chance of succeeding.

 

OK, we disagree.  The shot Allen took is the highest degree of difficulty as a throw, to the least capable WR of the 4 receiving options available (McKensie).

We can just disagree on this one.

 

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