Some Allen/Offense Stats

[Tesla03]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I forgot Pegula talked to the players about what he should do with the OC.?

 

Really hopes he's learned something....anything.....about the game of football since then..... 

 

considering he let his HC hand pick our GM he literally learned nothing.

 

 

[Nextmanup]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Lazy takes by Sullivan.

For Ty Dunne, want to know stats on 30+ air yard passes and 20+ air yard passes for other QBs before I get all bothered.

 

Here's what you need to know about Allen.

 

The last I checked, he was 29th in the league in ANY/A behind such elite talents as Mason Rudolph, and Football Outsiders has him rated with a DYAR of 31st in the league, among QBs with at least 150 passes.

 

That DYAR is a negative value!  MINUS 230! 

 

He's terrible! 

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

31 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I’m not saying the stats are good, bad, indicative of his career.  Honestly, I have no idea.  I want Josh to be the guy, same as I did TT and JP.  

I just found the stats interesting 

 

Lesson # 1.     Stats LIE

Lesson # 2.  Refer to Lesson # 1.  

[Virgil]

Just now, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

Lesson # 1.     Stats LIE

Lesson # 2.  Refer to Lesson # 1.  

 

I disagree.  There's anomalies, but typically the majority of the QB's at the top of the overall stat sheets are pretty solid. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

7 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Here's what you need to know about Allen.

 

The last I checked, he was 29th in the league in ANY/A behind such elite talents as Mason Rudolph, and Football Outsiders has him rated with a DYAR of 31st in the league, among QBs with at least 150 passes.

 

That DYAR is a negative value!  MINUS 230! 

 

He's terrible! 

 

 

Honest question, would you trade Josh Allen for Mason Rudolph straight up?

Edited November 13, 2019 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

29 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Beasley can do deep here and there.  Not from the outside but he can from the slot....just like Edelman and Welker.  You can't just have them right the same patterns in the same area every time.  

It really hurts if your passing offense is one dimensional which it is now.  We can't beat you over the top and it makes everything shorter and in between more clogged and messy.  

I'm not asking for a superstar, mediocre would be good right now.

 

Bease didn't maintain a 70% catch rate in Dallas going deep.   

 

Intermediate over the middle is his forte.  

 

As to Edelman and Welker.  Tom never exceeded a 70% completion rating for a season

Edited November 13, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[jrober38]

10 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Here's what you need to know about Allen.

 

The last I checked, he was 29th in the league in ANY/A behind such elite talents as Mason Rudolph, and Football Outsiders has him rated with a DYAR of 31st in the league, among QBs with at least 150 passes.

 

That DYAR is a negative value!  MINUS 230! 

 

He's terrible! 

 

 

 

He just needs more time.

 

Right?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

 

I disagree.  There's anomalies, but typically the majority of the QB's at the top of the overall stat sheets are pretty solid. 

 

I can only assume you've never worked with statistics.  

 

I used to test cell phones.  My reports had said  1% of the phones had failure  parametric tests A, B or C. 

 

No one came to investigate the repeated failures. 

 

I then combined the stats to say 5 phones out of 20 FAILED. 

 

The next day there was a line at my office to collect the failures for investigating the issues 

 

Magically these repeated failures became less and less 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Allen’s floor versus Taylor’s ceiling. Hmmm, was it too “journalistic” to bother with providing context to those numbers such as years of experience? What’s that you say? That wouldn’t mesh with your narrative?  Thought so Jerry...

[Virgil]

4 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

I can only assume you've never worked with statistics.  

 

I used to test cell phones.  My reports had said  1% of the phones had failure  parametric tests A, B or C. 

 

No one came to investigate the repeated failures. 

 

I then combined the stats to say 5 phones out of 20 FAILED. 

 

The next day there was a line at my office to collect the failures for investigating the issues 

 

Magically these repeated failures became less and less 

 

 

 

Sorted by overall QB rating the last 2 years.  Allen was 29 and 32 on both.  I'd take at least 8 of those 10 QB's. 

 

Yes, stats can be a one off with garbage time or weak opponents.  But, by the end of a season, it usually balances out and everyone gets their fair share of those situations. 

 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

43 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I’m not saying the stats are good, bad, indicative of his career.  Honestly, I have no idea.  I want Josh to be the guy, same as I did TT and JP.  

I just found the stats interesting 

Stats without appropriate and necessary context can be tortured to admit to anything, and therefore are without meaningful substance. The folks against JA will use them as they see fit, and those who support him will point out the deficiencies in the information presented. Let’s see where we are at by year’s end. 

[Chicken Boo]

4 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

So what Jerry is saying is Rookie Allen is equal to or better than Vet Tyrod. That’s actually great news I m o. 

 

Conveniently neglecting to recognize the turnover differential.  Weird.

Edited November 13, 2019 by Chicken Boo

[jrober38]

5 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Let’s see where we are at by year’s end. 

 

Probably in a much worse position at QB than people think we're at right now. 

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Probably in a much worse position at QB than people think we're at right now. 

Too bad we didn’t give up an entire draft to move to 1 to get Jameis Winston, huh?  

[Chicken Boo]

By no measurable standard is Josh Allen recognized as playing good football.

 

If you want to give him more time to prove himself, fine.  Completely understandable, but don't pretend that what our eyes are seeing is good football.  It's not.

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, whorlnut said:

Too bad we didn’t give up an entire draft to move to 1 to get Jameis Winston, huh?  

 

What does this have to do with Josh Allen being a bad QB?

 

Please try to stay on topic.

Just now, Chicken Boo said:

By no measurable standard is Josh Allen recognized as playing good football.

 

If you want to give him more time to prove himself, fine.  Completely understandable, but don't pretend that what our eyes are seeing is good football.  It's not.

 

He's about one of the 4-5 worst starting QBs by every metric you can use to evaluate QBs. 

 

All while playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.....

[Z-Mann]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Sure, if you use a single stat over the entirety of Josh Allen's career including the beginning of his rookie season when everyone agrees he was bad. Or you could look at how he's doing this year and see that he's at 213 YPG and trending up. While Tyrod Taylor decreased his YPG each year from 2015 to 2017. You could also see that Allen has improved in YPA, passer rating, completion percentage, TD percentage, INT percentage, ANY/A, and sack percentage from 2018 to 2019. But if you were a former employee of a dying newspaper you would probably go the other route.

 

You're not wrong, but unpack that for a moment.  If all of that is true, and he is STILL, statistically, one of the worst QB's in the league this year...he went from brutally bad to just bad? And we want to celebrate that?  

 

I expected more from the guy by now.  If someone expected him to be one of the worst QB's in the league 9 games in, I would question what standard that they had for him...

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

he went from brutally bad to just bad? And we want to celebrate that?

 

I think he went from bad to mediocre, and yes we should be decently happy with that progress. See my post here:

 

 

Allen had every flaw you could think of in college outside of physical traits and decent intermediate accuracy. It's actually kind of amazing how many problems he's cleaned up. That's not to say we should be pleased with where he is, but I'm happy with his progress. It's all a matter of how far he develops. If this is his ceiling he's not good enough. But he's gone from Jamarcus Russell to Ryan Tannehill. I'll take that, for now.

Edited November 13, 2019 by HappyDays

[NoHuddleKelly12]

8 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Probably in a much worse position at QB than people think we're at right now. 

I appreciate your wit! Made me chuckle ? 

[whorlnut]

6 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

What does this have to do with Josh Allen being a bad QB?

 

Please try to stay on topic.

 

He's about one of the 4-5 worst starting QBs by every metric you can use to evaluate QBs. 

 

All while playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.....

So you can admit you were dead wrong about Winston?

[jrober38]

9 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

So you can admit you were dead wrong about Winston?

 

Absolutely.

 

He stinks.

Edited November 13, 2019 by jrober38

[Z-Mann]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think he went from bad to mediocre, and yes we should be decently happy with that progress. See my post here:

 

 

Honest question - how are you determining, "mediocre"?  He's bottom 5 in DVOA, bottom five in QBR, and has a passer rating of 81.6, behind the likes of Mason Rudolph, Gardner Minshew, Marcus Mariota, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Kyle Allen, and Mitch Trubisky...and just ahead of Andy Daulton and Eli Manning.  

 

I am serious and I may truly be missing it...what evidence is there that he has been an average quarterback this year?

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

 

Honest question - how are you determining, "mediocre"?  He's bottom 5 in DVOA, bottom five in QBR, and has a passer rating of 81.6, behind the likes of Mason Rudolph, Gardner Minshew, Marcus Mariota, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Kyle Allen, and Mitch Trubisky...and just ahead of Andy Daulton and Eli Manning.  

 

I am serious and I may truly be missing it...what evidence is there that he has been an average quarterback this year?

 

Absolutely nothing.

 

It gets scary when you consider how many horrible defenses he's had the opportunity to play against. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

9 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

 

Honest question - how are you determining, "mediocre"?  He's bottom 5 in DVOA, bottom five in QBR, and has a passer rating of 81.6, behind the likes of Mason Rudolph, Gardner Minshew, Marcus Mariota, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Kyle Allen, and Mitch Trubisky...and just ahead of Andy Daulton and Eli Manning.  

 

I am serious and I may truly be missing it...what evidence is there that he has been an average quarterback this year?

So are you trading Josh Allen even up for any of  the highlighted players?

[Chicken Boo]

19 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

So are you trading Josh Allen even up for any of  the highlighted players?

 

I'd take Murray, Jones, Allen & Dalton over him for sure.  Not sure about Uncle Rico.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

10 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

I'd take Murray, Jones, Allen & Dalton over him for sure.  Not sure about Uncle Rico.

So you'd trade Josh Allen even up  for Andy Dalton, Kyle Allen, Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray? I can't see an argument even being made about the first three, that's just silly.

[HappyDays]

47 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

Honest question - how are you determining, "mediocre"?  He's bottom 5 in DVOA, bottom five in QBR, and has a passer rating of 81.6

 

I don't care about QBR, I do agree passer rating and DVOA for the season are not good enough. But I'm looking for continual improvement in each quarter of the season and I'm seeing that. I can't speak for DVOA because they don't post week to week stats, but look at his passer rating this year:

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

 

Games 1 to 4 he averaged 69.6, games 5 to 9 he averaged 91.8. Or if you think I'm being unfair with that cut off point, games 1 to 5 he averaged 75.2, games 6 to 9 he averaged 90.1.

 

A clearer picture will emerge as the season continues. He started the season off bad, now he is mediocre. By the end of the year I'd like to see him reach an average level. Next season he'll need to make another big jump.

 

I didn't want to draft Allen because he had so much to fix but he has been getting better. We're going to have to be patient with him. If his progress ever stops we'll know he's hit his ceiling.

Edited November 13, 2019 by HappyDays

[Nihilarian]

C'mon guys, look at whats happening here!

 

This young QB is being developed by a guy who thought Nathan Peterman should start ahead of him!!! 

 

The entire Bills world wants to see Singletary get the ball more and  what does this brainiac OC do? Has the young, inexperienced QB throw 41 times against a team that is #7 in passing yards allowed along with the #2 sacker in the league.

 

Meanwhile, "Motor" went 8 rushes for 42 yards against a supposed "stacked" defense with a 5.3 yards per carry average. In the first half Allen had 19 passes, Singletary 3 rushes. WTF! 

 

Just pray that this team doesn't get behind in points over the next 7 games! Because this lame OC then forces the QB to carry the team by going pass happy and forgets the run game. He did it a lot last season too. 

[LSHMEAB]

4 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Any crap about TT and Allen being similar ends with three words:

 

 

Third and Long. 

Ok. I'll bite. What does that even mean? Allen may be better than Taylor, but this doesn't make sense.

 

We still suck on offense, but now, we like to turn the ball over as well. That's the difference. 

 

Tyrod was better than Josh has been AT THIS POINT. Facts.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

15 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Ok. I'll bite. What does that even mean? Allen may be better than Taylor, but this doesn't make sense.

 

We still suck on offense, but now, we like to turn the ball over as well. That's the difference. 

 

Tyrod was better than Josh has been AT THIS POINT. Facts.

This is Nonsense and you know it.

[Putin]

6 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

So what Jerry is saying is Rookie Allen is equal to or better than Vet Tyrod. That’s actually great news I m o. 

Not only that , but I would love to see Tyrod play behind this GREAT OL that we had last year and his best weapon on offense being 

K Benjamin , 

BTW did anyone hear how great KB or Holmes are playing this year ? Since they were Allen’s  #1& # 2 WR’s last year 

[ngbills]

3 minutes ago, Putin said:

Not only that , but I would love to see Tyrod play behind this GREAT OL that we had last year and his best weapon on offense being 

K Benjamin , 

BTW did anyone hear how great KB or Holmes are playing this year ? Since they were Allen’s  #1& # 2 WR’s last year 

Confusion...

Tyrod did play with KB as his best WR and a worse OL (Mills, Ducasse and rookie Dawkins).

[Jrb1979]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't care about QBR, I do agree passer rating and DVOA for the season are not good enough. But I'm looking for continual improvement in each quarter of the season and I'm seeing that. I can't speak for DVOA because they don't post week to week stats, but look at his passer rating this year:

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

 

Games 1 to 4 he averaged 69.6, games 5 to 9 he averaged 91.8. Or if you think I'm being unfair with that cut off point, games 1 to 5 he averaged 75.2, games 6 to 9 he averaged 90.1.

 

A clearer picture will emerge as the season continues. He started the season off bad, now he is mediocre. By the end of the year I'd like to see him reach an average level. Next season he'll need to make another big jump.

 

I didn't want to draft Allen because he had so much to fix but he has been getting better. We're going to have to be patient with him. If his progress ever stops we'll know he's hit his ceiling.

It would be a big jump if he even gets to average as the Bills are going to be playing teams that have much better defense then what they have played. Patience can only be for so long, if the Bills fail to make the playoffs by next season I doubt it matters. They will be starting over again. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

17 minutes ago, Putin said:

Not only that , but I would love to see Tyrod play behind this GREAT OL that we had last year and his best weapon on offense being 

K Benjamin , 

BTW did anyone hear how great KB or Holmes are playing this year ? Since they were Allen’s  #1& # 2 WR’s last year 

I'm not sure that matthews Zay and deonte thompson are the group you want to brag about 

[Z-Mann]

2 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

So are you trading Josh Allen even up for any of  the highlighted players?

 

Here's the thing...I don't know if I would or not...and I don't feel like that should be the right answer at this point in time!  The "right" answer SHOULD be an unequivocal HECK NO by now...and for some of those players, I honestly don't know.  

[HappyDays]

18 minutes ago, Putin said:

BTW did anyone hear how great KB or Holmes are playing this year ? Since they were Allen’s  #1& # 2 WR’s last year 

 

There was a point in 2017 where I said Andre Holmes was a poor man's version of Kelvin Benjamin. By the middle of last season I was saying the opposite.

[Z-Mann]

1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:

C'mon guys, look at whats happening here!

 

This young QB is being developed by a guy who thought Nathan Peterman should start ahead of him!!! 

 

The entire Bills world wants to see Singletary get the ball more and  what does this brainiac OC do? Has the young, inexperienced QB throw 41 times against a team that is #7 in passing yards allowed along with the #2 sacker in the league.

 

Meanwhile, "Motor" went 8 rushes for 42 yards against a supposed "stacked" defense with a 5.3 yards per carry average. In the first half Allen had 19 passes, Singletary 3 rushes. WTF! 

 

Just pray that this team doesn't get behind in points over the next 7 games! Because this lame OC then forces the QB to carry the team by going pass happy and forgets the run game. He did it a lot last season too. 

 

GREAT points.  Coaching does not and should not escape criticism.  Ultimately I feel like a great QB can overcome questionable coaching to at least be "average" (or an outlier like Aaron Rodgers, be excellent), but I am not sure if we have the leadership in place to get the best out of Allen.  I also feel like they aren't THAT bad which is contributing to him being one of the worst in the league.

7 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

It would be a big jump if he even gets to average as the Bills are going to be playing teams that have much better defense then what they have played. Patience can only be for so long, if the Bills fail to make the playoffs by next season I doubt it matters. They will be starting over again. 

 

If he plays even "average" after the Miami game and going forward, I would definitely consider it progress and a "win" for both Allen and the organization.  Do I feel like it will happen based on past performance?  Probably not, but it is certainly possible that he starts playing better.

 

The next seven games will be interesting.  It's time that we learn something about this team - barely beating bad teams tells me nothing.

[jrober38]

2 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

So you'd trade Josh Allen even up  for Andy Dalton, Kyle Allen, Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray? I can't see an argument even being made about the first three, that's just silly.

 

Why would you not trade him for any of those guys?

 

I'm curious.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Well Dalton is an old has been or never was, Kyle Allen is was an undrafted FA for a reason and his career sample size is crazy small, Daniel Jones is  a small sample size as well and was widely believed to have been over drafted, Kyler Murray you can make an argument for. Bottom line is Josh was the number 7 pick in the draft and some thought would go higher. He has only 20 games under his belt, and has all the tools to become great. He was very raw compared to all the others who had more college experience at a higher level. He's basically doing the training they did in college in the NFL, and his pedigree is better than anyone except Kyler. In short he's a bigger, more intelligent, more athletic package.

Edited November 13, 2019 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[MAJBobby]

7 hours ago, Virgil said:

Do with these what you will

 

 

 

 

 

and Jerry wonders why he was FIRED and Jobless