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Virgil

Some Allen/Offense Stats

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1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

We're counting Tyrod's time in Baltimore as a bench warmer as experience I guess? Tyrod has started 46 games in his career. 

 

The point is we ran Tyrod out of town for playing QB the way Allen has been playing. Allen has much more potential than Tyrod, but he has to start living up to it at some point. 

 

 


BUT TYROD WAS BASICALLY A ROOKIE!!!

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That TT/Allen comparison is striking, though I'll note that Allen has the same number of rushing TDs (14) in 20 games as TT did in 3 years.

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14 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

I do not understand all the defending of Allen that I am seeing.  A lot of what is being said is not wrong - still a young guy, not even a full second season, feel like he's gotten better at the short passes...there are some reasons to remain hopeful.

 

Here is where my disappointment comes in - if I were to ask a football fan if they would be happy if their second year QB was 31st in DVOA (out of 33 QB's that have thrown at least 150 passes) and also 31st in QBR, 9 games into the season...like, we would all be disappointed in that, right?  Is it wrong to have expected something more at this point? 

 

As Bills fans, we have something that no other fan has for Allen - faith.  Faith that he will be "the guy" and is capable of carrying the offense on his back when needed.  But by almost any statistical measure that's important for a QB, even though we are halfway through his second season, he is a BAD quarterback.  Then the Tyrod comparisons start up...and yes, Tyrod had his ceiling with us and is now relegated to backup duty...but he wasn't good enough and almost all Bills fans wanted to move off him.  JA puts up similar numbers as Tyrod did, and the excuses start coming out, mostly having to do with his age and tenure in the NFL compared to TT.  Both true points.  It does not diminish the fact that JA is still a BAD QB at this point in time.  Yes, more of an opportunity to get better than TT due to tenure and age, but right now Allen is not a good quarterback.

 

He really needs to take a significant jump from his second to third year.  I *hope* he does, but I'm not seeing it trending that way based on the data...

This. 

 

He can be young, still need time to develop, be improving and all the positives you want to add to that. He can also be not good enough, disappointing, and holding this team back. Saying those things does not mean you are clueless, not a Bills fan, Tyrod lover or whatever else is said to anyone critical of JA.  

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

"He's a work in progress.  We knew that when we drafted him."

 

Seems as though many like to ignore this fact.  

 

Edited by Lagoon Blues

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3 minutes ago, ngbills said:

This. 

 

He can be young, still need time to develop, be improving and all the positives you want to add to that. He can also be not good enough, disappointing, and holding this team back. Saying those things does not mean you are clueless, not a Bills fan, Tyrod lover or whatever else is said to anyone critical of JA.  

 

...And THAT!  I do NOT want to move off him right now, it would be foolish to do so.  He has shown SOME positives, and he does need more time.  He's a bad QB right now.  If by the end of the season he is still a bad QB, and halfway into next season he is STILL a bad QB (think bottom five in QBR/DVOA type of thing)...then I feel like it's a reasonable take that the organization needs to start thinking about moving off him.

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Allen has a WHOLE NEW offense to work with.   

Chemistry takes time.  

 

Is he "perfect"?  Hell no, but to expect perfection... Who's fooling who? 

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32 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

I do not understand all the defending of Allen that I am seeing.  A lot of what is being said is not wrong - still a young guy, not even a full second season, feel like he's gotten better at the short passes...there are some reasons to remain hopeful.

 

Here is where my disappointment comes in - if I were to ask a football fan if they would be happy if their second year QB was 31st in DVOA (out of 33 QB's that have thrown at least 150 passes) and also 31st in QBR, 9 games into the season...like, we would all be disappointed in that, right?  Is it wrong to have expected something more at this point? 

 

As Bills fans, we have something that no other fan has for Allen - faith.  Faith that he will be "the guy" and is capable of carrying the offense on his back when needed.  But by almost any statistical measure that's important for a QB, even though we are halfway through his second season, he is a BAD quarterback.  Then the Tyrod comparisons start up...and yes, Tyrod had his ceiling with us and is now relegated to backup duty...but he wasn't good enough and almost all Bills fans wanted to move off him.  JA puts up similar numbers as Tyrod did, and the excuses start coming out, mostly having to do with his age and tenure in the NFL compared to TT.  Both true points.  It does not diminish the fact that JA is still a BAD QB at this point in time.  Yes, more of an opportunity to get better than TT due to tenure and age, but right now Allen is not a good quarterback.

 

He really needs to take a significant jump from his second to third year.  I *hope* he does, but I'm not seeing it trending that way based on the data...


Allen would be even further down in QBR and DVOA rankings if other starting and backup QBs had gotten more snaps and qualified.

 

But no one wants to hear that the guy they root for isn’t very good.  If Allen played for the Dolphins he’d be getting ripped apart and they’d be laughing about him. 

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19 minutes ago, theAteam said:

That TT/Allen comparison is striking, though I'll note that Allen has the same number of rushing TDs (14) in 20 games as TT did in 3 years.

 

shhh  the JAH club wants no part of reality 

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27 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Flip side is that the highest drafted qb in Bills history is playing at an equal level as a 6th round pick who some thought should switch positions and is now a career backup. 
 

any knee jerk reactions on Allen at this point is dumb.  But a reason why I wanted to move on from Tyrod was he wasn’t a game changer.  He wasn’t going to be the reason you lost, but he wasn’t the reason you won either.  Allen has kinda been like that, with a few flashes.  We need more. 

 

Allen has won a couple games with drives I'm not sure TT completes... That being said, Allen flashes game changer- we just need to see if he'll grow into fully it or not. 

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1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:


Allen would be even further down in QBR and DVOA rankings if other starting and backup QBs had gotten more snaps and qualified.

 

But no one wants to hear that the guy they root for isn’t very good.  If Allen played for the Dolphins he’d be getting ripped apart and they’d be laughing about him. 

 

That's really it.  I think most of us are not cheering for the dude to fail, I certainly am not.  It stinks knowing that with even an "average" QB, would could be sitting at 7 or 8 wins right now.  

 

In the meantime, I am going to keep hoping the guy improves and cheering for the Bills to win, but at the same time be extremely disappointed with his play so far...

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So the guy who sat for years of “training “ was only marginally better than a raw rookie who should have sat his first year, plus 9 games into year 2. Taylor was also throwing to Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, LeSean McCoy, et al. Not ideal, but Allen has probably shown enough to get a third year with some additional weapons on the offense besides Brown and Beasley. Allen needs to improve and finish the season on an upward trajectory. He hasn’t had a very good game since TEN and that has to change. My guess is they add to the offense and make a decision on Allen after next season. If Allen slumps and declines over the last seven games that would probably change their outlook. 

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59 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I'm pretty certain its been hammered over and over into Allen that he simply can't turn the ball over with interceptions. Allen is a "Brett Favre" style gunslinger that this regime has forced into a game manager type. 

 

What happened in the last two games?

 

Washington 20 attempts passing vs 39 rushes. Allen 14 of 20 for 160 yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD. QBR of 110.4 

 

Cleveland 41 pass attempts vs 20 rushes. Allen 21 of 41 for 266 yards, 2 rushing TDs. QBR of 73.8

 

Both opposing teams were "bad" due to their record of wins. However, lets look at the strength of both defenses.

 

The Redskins defense was bad everywhere save their defensive line was stout with two first rounders and although they aren't that good stat wise at stopping the run, that line can be formidable! Case in point, Frank Gore a 1.4 YPC against them. Meanwhile "motor" ripped them for 20 carries, 95 yards, a 4.8 YPC average. 

 

The Browns strength was in their #2 in the NFL in sacks DE Miles Garrett and their #7th in the NFL in average passing yards allowed by a defense. This same defense was 28th in yards per carry allowed rushing, 27th in rushing yards allowed. Singletary only given 8 carries for 42 yards, a 5.2 YPC avg. Frank Gore 5 carries for 12 yards, a 2.4 YPC avg. 

 

Believe it or not the 1988 12-4 Buffalo Bills had 454 pass attempts, 528 rush attempts with Jim Kelly who had a 59.5 completion percentage. The Bills ran the ball more in those years and yet were more successful passing because it was a run first offense. 1989, 478 passing, 532 rushing. 1990 13-3 Bills 425 passing, 479 rushing.

This run first offense helped develop QB Jim Kelly into a top passer in my point. 

The Redskins have four first rounders on their D-front: Allen, Payne, Kerrigan, and Sweat. Collectively, they are really good. Unfortunately for the Redskins, it's the only good part of the team.

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56 minutes ago, MarkyMannn said:

Factor in the fumbles and OUCH!

 

When was the last time you yelled THROW THE DAMN FOOTBALL?

 

seasons back it was nearly ever snap.  

Edited by SlimShady'sGhost

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Tyrod Taylor had been in the league 4 years before getting his first start Buffalo. Josh Allen had been in the league for one game. Tyrod Taylor came to Buffalo at his ceiling. Josh Allen is still at his floor. Just another indication of how stupid Jerry Sullivan is when making comparisons. 

 

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29 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

 

...And THAT!  I do NOT want to move off him right now, it would be foolish to do so.  He has shown SOME positives, and he does need more time.  He's a bad QB right now.  If by the end of the season he is still a bad QB, and halfway into next season he is STILL a bad QB (think bottom five in QBR/DVOA type of thing)...then I feel like it's a reasonable take that the organization needs to start thinking about moving off him.

 

This is a fair take.

 

Contrary to what we have seen, I think the ironic thing is that the coaches view Josh as a QB who is most definitely NOT a system QB and one who has the talent and smarts to adapt to ANY system. They appear to be taking the long-haul approach with him. Hence, Josh is taking his lumps as he struggles through the foundations. Let's hope, for example, that the narrow loss to the Browns will serve as a true learning experience for him.

 

Conversely, Roman in Baltimore has designed a system that is exclusively centered around Lamar Jackson's skills. This year Jackson has been dynamic and the offense is clicking. But we all know that defenses eventually catch up -- and it will be interesting to see whether or not Jackson will continue to play at a high level for the long haul.

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1 hour ago, Z-Mann said:

I do not understand all the defending of Allen that I am seeing.  A lot of what is being said is not wrong - still a young guy, not even a full second season, feel like he's gotten better at the short passes...there are some reasons to remain hopeful.

 

Here is where my disappointment comes in - if I were to ask a football fan if they would be happy if their second year QB was 31st in DVOA (out of 33 QB's that have thrown at least 150 passes) and also 31st in QBR, 9 games into the season...like, we would all be disappointed in that, right?  Is it wrong to have expected something more at this point? 

 

As Bills fans, we have something that no other fan has for Allen - faith.  Faith that he will be "the guy" and is capable of carrying the offense on his back when needed.  But by almost any statistical measure that's important for a QB, even though we are halfway through his second season, he is a BAD quarterback.  Then the Tyrod comparisons start up...and yes, Tyrod had his ceiling with us and is now relegated to backup duty...but he wasn't good enough and almost all Bills fans wanted to move off him.  JA puts up similar numbers as Tyrod did, and the excuses start coming out, mostly having to do with his age and tenure in the NFL compared to TT.  Both true points.  It does not diminish the fact that JA is still a BAD QB at this point in time.  Yes, more of an opportunity to get better than TT due to tenure and age, but right now Allen is not a good quarterback.

 

He really needs to take a significant jump from his second to third year.  I *hope* he does, but I'm not seeing it trending that way based on the data...

 

Can't say anything bad about Allen because he was a project QB...  After 20 games he's still not a good passer and his decision making is bad.

 

Dude has just not been good at all really up to this point.  Ask fans for other teams how they view Allen and more national observers - they think the guy is trash and it's hard to argue it..

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2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Tyrod Taylor had been in the league 4 years before getting his first start Buffalo. Josh Allen had been in the league for one game. Tyrod Taylor came to Buffalo at his ceiling. Josh Allen is still at his floor. Just another indication of how stupid Jerry Sullivan is when making comparisons. 

 

We hope he's at his floor. Time will tell.

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56 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:
2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

So what Jerry is saying is Rookie Allen is equal to or better than Vet Tyrod. That’s actually great news I m o. 

Flip side is that the highest drafted qb in Bills history is playing at an equal level as a 6th round pick who some thought should switch positions and is now a career backup. 

 

Sure, if you use a single stat over the entirety of Josh Allen's career including the beginning of his rookie season when everyone agrees he was bad. Or you could look at how he's doing this year and see that he's at 213 YPG and trending up. While Tyrod Taylor decreased his YPG each year from 2015 to 2017. You could also see that Allen has improved in YPA, passer rating, completion percentage, TD percentage, INT percentage, ANY/A, and sack percentage from 2018 to 2019. But if you were a former employee of a dying newspaper you would probably go the other route.

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1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

We hope he's at his floor. Time will tell.

Regardless, the floor is where he’s at now. People are free to argue that he’s also at his ceiling, but that’s a myopic take at best given his experience level. Then again, Sully is nothing if not myopic. 

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8 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Tyrod Taylor had been in the league 4 years before getting his first start Buffalo. Josh Allen had been in the league for one game. Tyrod Taylor came to Buffalo at his ceiling. Josh Allen is still at his floor. Just another indication of how stupid Jerry Sullivan is when making comparisons. 

 

 

I think from now on I will change 

 

You can't fix stupid   

 

to 

 

You can't fix Jerry 

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2 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

We're counting Tyrod's time in Baltimore as a bench warmer as experience I guess? Tyrod has started 46 games in his career. 

 

The point is we ran Tyrod out of town for playing QB the way Allen has been playing. Allen has much more potential than Tyrod, but he has to start living up to it at some point. 

 

 

 

Backup or not he had a lot of experience and time to get acquainted with the offense being ran. He would be light years ahead of a rookie no matter if he started or not during that time.  He still went through 4 training camps...he still got some reps for 4 years...he still sat in 4 years worth of meetings and film study...no comparison at all.

Edited by matter2003

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Just now, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

I think from now on I will change 

 

You can't fix stupid   

 

to 

 

You can't fix Jerry 

That’s s good idea. And it’s respectful to stupid people insulted by being compared to Jerry. 

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