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Virgil

Some Allen/Offense Stats

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1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

We're counting Tyrod's time in Baltimore as a bench warmer as experience I guess? Tyrod has started 46 games in his career. 

 

The point is we ran Tyrod out of town for playing QB the way Allen has been playing. Allen has much more potential than Tyrod, but he has to start living up to it at some point. 

 

 

 

For most of his time here I'd have been "yea but screw the stats just watch the games.... Allen plays nothing like Tyrod. And then the last few weeks happened. I called Sunday Tyrod-esque long before seeing these stats." It is less whether the numbers are the same as Tyrod for me.... they will be what will be.... but if he starts playing like him regularly we have a problem.

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8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Germaine to this point: the OL.  Losing Wood and Incognito and not replacing them adequately was huge last year.

 

When you have a new starter, it's appropriate to look at the progression in their stats from year to year.  You lose detail by lumping them.

 

 

 

 

But then that was Sullivan's intention - no?

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I'll bite because I have no idea who QB 1 is.  Now looking at those numbers I would say they're pretty close but then if I only have those numbers to go by then trying to compare them and reach an informed conclusion is impossible without knowing the following:

 

*  Who were the offensive lineman for each QB.

*  Who were the WR's

*  Who were the TE's

*  Who were the RB's

* Who were the coaches

 

* Can you provide some details on the game results.  For instance a check down QB is going to pad their stats very nicely if they play in a few more games in which they trail by multiple scores and are facing prevent defenses. 

 

So I'm curious who is QB #1?

 

The GOAT.  Tom Brady 

the players 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2002.htm

 

My point is --  young QB's need time to develop.  They need to learn and hone their game. 

1 INT in the last month is impressive

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I'm pretty certain its been hammered over and over into Allen that he simply can't turn the ball over with interceptions. Allen is a "Brett Favre" style gunslinger that this regime has forced into a game manager type. 

 

What happened in the last two games?

 

Washington 20 attempts passing vs 39 rushes. Allen 14 of 20 for 160 yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD. QBR of 110.4 

 

Cleveland 41 pass attempts vs 20 rushes. Allen 21 of 41 for 266 yards, 2 rushing TDs. QBR of 73.8

 

Both opposing teams were "bad" due to their record of wins. However, lets look at the strength of both defenses.

 

The Redskins defense was bad everywhere save their defensive line was stout with two first rounders and although they aren't that good stat wise at stopping the run, that line can be formidable! Case in point, Frank Gore a 1.4 YPC against them. Meanwhile "motor" ripped them for 20 carries, 95 yards, a 4.8 YPC average. 

 

The Browns strength was in their #2 in the NFL in sacks DE Miles Garrett and their #7th in the NFL in average passing yards allowed by a defense. This same defense was 28th in yards per carry allowed rushing, 27th in rushing yards allowed. Singletary only given 8 carries for 42 yards, a 5.2 YPC avg. Frank Gore 5 carries for 12 yards, a 2.4 YPC avg. 

 

Believe it or not the 1988 12-4 Buffalo Bills had 454 pass attempts, 528 rush attempts with Jim Kelly who had a 59.5 completion percentage. The Bills ran the ball more in those years and yet were more successful passing because it was a run first offense. 1989, 478 passing, 532 rushing. 1990 13-3 Bills 425 passing, 479 rushing.

This run first offense helped develop QB Jim Kelly into a top passer in my point. 

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2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

The GOAT.  Tom Brady 

the players 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2002.htm

 

My point is --  young QB's need time to develop.  They need to learn and hone their game. 

1 INT in the last month is impressive

 

No no no... Allen has played almost a full year and a half and he's still not perfect. He's a bust. We should have traded up for Mayfield. Or for Darnold. We should have taken Right Josh. Tank for Tua! Lose for Lawrence! Trade for Cam! Allen suks. 

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I'm just amazed that anyone follows Jerry Sullivan on Twitter.

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I do not understand all the defending of Allen that I am seeing.  A lot of what is being said is not wrong - still a young guy, not even a full second season, feel like he's gotten better at the short passes...there are some reasons to remain hopeful.

 

Here is where my disappointment comes in - if I were to ask a football fan if they would be happy if their second year QB was 31st in DVOA (out of 33 QB's that have thrown at least 150 passes) and also 31st in QBR, 9 games into the season...like, we would all be disappointed in that, right?  Is it wrong to have expected something more at this point? 

 

As Bills fans, we have something that no other fan has for Allen - faith.  Faith that he will be "the guy" and is capable of carrying the offense on his back when needed.  But by almost any statistical measure that's important for a QB, even though we are halfway through his second season, he is a BAD quarterback.  Then the Tyrod comparisons start up...and yes, Tyrod had his ceiling with us and is now relegated to backup duty...but he wasn't good enough and almost all Bills fans wanted to move off him.  JA puts up similar numbers as Tyrod did, and the excuses start coming out, mostly having to do with his age and tenure in the NFL compared to TT.  Both true points.  It does not diminish the fact that JA is still a BAD QB at this point in time.  Yes, more of an opportunity to get better than TT due to tenure and age, but right now Allen is not a good quarterback.

 

He really needs to take a significant jump from his second to third year.  I *hope* he does, but I'm not seeing it trending that way based on the data...

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19 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

The GOAT.  Tom Brady 

the players 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2002.htm

 

My point is --  young QB's need time to develop.  They need to learn and hone their game. 

1 INT in the last month is impressive

 

Yes they do.  However, I can't point to many examples where a QB was downright BAD in their second season and became something good....and right now he's a BAD QB.  

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32 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

Or you’d be making excuses for the poor talent around him. 

 

No, I'd actually be paying you the $100..........

 

BTW, @plenzmd1, can I borrow like $25k to cover this past-tense hypothetical bet once time machines are invented?

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1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

So what Jerry is saying is Rookie Allen is equal to or better than Vet Tyrod. That’s actually great news I m o. 

Flip side is that the highest drafted qb in Bills history is playing at an equal level as a 6th round pick who some thought should switch positions and is now a career backup. 
 

any knee jerk reactions on Allen at this point is dumb.  But a reason why I wanted to move on from Tyrod was he wasn’t a game changer.  He wasn’t going to be the reason you lost, but he wasn’t the reason you won either.  Allen has kinda been like that, with a few flashes.  We need more. 

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1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

We're counting Tyrod's time in Baltimore as a bench warmer as experience I guess? Tyrod has started 46 games in his career. 

 

The point is we ran Tyrod out of town for playing QB the way Allen has been playing. Allen has much more potential than Tyrod, but he has to start living up to it at some point. 

 

 


BUT TYROD WAS BASICALLY A ROOKIE!!!

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That TT/Allen comparison is striking, though I'll note that Allen has the same number of rushing TDs (14) in 20 games as TT did in 3 years.

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14 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

I do not understand all the defending of Allen that I am seeing.  A lot of what is being said is not wrong - still a young guy, not even a full second season, feel like he's gotten better at the short passes...there are some reasons to remain hopeful.

 

Here is where my disappointment comes in - if I were to ask a football fan if they would be happy if their second year QB was 31st in DVOA (out of 33 QB's that have thrown at least 150 passes) and also 31st in QBR, 9 games into the season...like, we would all be disappointed in that, right?  Is it wrong to have expected something more at this point? 

 

As Bills fans, we have something that no other fan has for Allen - faith.  Faith that he will be "the guy" and is capable of carrying the offense on his back when needed.  But by almost any statistical measure that's important for a QB, even though we are halfway through his second season, he is a BAD quarterback.  Then the Tyrod comparisons start up...and yes, Tyrod had his ceiling with us and is now relegated to backup duty...but he wasn't good enough and almost all Bills fans wanted to move off him.  JA puts up similar numbers as Tyrod did, and the excuses start coming out, mostly having to do with his age and tenure in the NFL compared to TT.  Both true points.  It does not diminish the fact that JA is still a BAD QB at this point in time.  Yes, more of an opportunity to get better than TT due to tenure and age, but right now Allen is not a good quarterback.

 

He really needs to take a significant jump from his second to third year.  I *hope* he does, but I'm not seeing it trending that way based on the data...

This. 

 

He can be young, still need time to develop, be improving and all the positives you want to add to that. He can also be not good enough, disappointing, and holding this team back. Saying those things does not mean you are clueless, not a Bills fan, Tyrod lover or whatever else is said to anyone critical of JA.  

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11 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

We need more. 

 

Pretty sure everyone agrees with this, including Allen, his coaches and the GM...

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

"He's a work in progress.  We knew that when we drafted him."

 

Seems as though many like to ignore this fact.  

 

Edited by Lagoon Blues

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3 minutes ago, ngbills said:

This. 

 

He can be young, still need time to develop, be improving and all the positives you want to add to that. He can also be not good enough, disappointing, and holding this team back. Saying those things does not mean you are clueless, not a Bills fan, Tyrod lover or whatever else is said to anyone critical of JA.  

 

...And THAT!  I do NOT want to move off him right now, it would be foolish to do so.  He has shown SOME positives, and he does need more time.  He's a bad QB right now.  If by the end of the season he is still a bad QB, and halfway into next season he is STILL a bad QB (think bottom five in QBR/DVOA type of thing)...then I feel like it's a reasonable take that the organization needs to start thinking about moving off him.

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Allen has a WHOLE NEW offense to work with.   

Chemistry takes time.  

 

Is he "perfect"?  Hell no, but to expect perfection... Who's fooling who? 

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32 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

I do not understand all the defending of Allen that I am seeing.  A lot of what is being said is not wrong - still a young guy, not even a full second season, feel like he's gotten better at the short passes...there are some reasons to remain hopeful.

 

Here is where my disappointment comes in - if I were to ask a football fan if they would be happy if their second year QB was 31st in DVOA (out of 33 QB's that have thrown at least 150 passes) and also 31st in QBR, 9 games into the season...like, we would all be disappointed in that, right?  Is it wrong to have expected something more at this point? 

 

As Bills fans, we have something that no other fan has for Allen - faith.  Faith that he will be "the guy" and is capable of carrying the offense on his back when needed.  But by almost any statistical measure that's important for a QB, even though we are halfway through his second season, he is a BAD quarterback.  Then the Tyrod comparisons start up...and yes, Tyrod had his ceiling with us and is now relegated to backup duty...but he wasn't good enough and almost all Bills fans wanted to move off him.  JA puts up similar numbers as Tyrod did, and the excuses start coming out, mostly having to do with his age and tenure in the NFL compared to TT.  Both true points.  It does not diminish the fact that JA is still a BAD QB at this point in time.  Yes, more of an opportunity to get better than TT due to tenure and age, but right now Allen is not a good quarterback.

 

He really needs to take a significant jump from his second to third year.  I *hope* he does, but I'm not seeing it trending that way based on the data...


Allen would be even further down in QBR and DVOA rankings if other starting and backup QBs had gotten more snaps and qualified.

 

But no one wants to hear that the guy they root for isn’t very good.  If Allen played for the Dolphins he’d be getting ripped apart and they’d be laughing about him. 

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19 minutes ago, theAteam said:

That TT/Allen comparison is striking, though I'll note that Allen has the same number of rushing TDs (14) in 20 games as TT did in 3 years.

 

shhh  the JAH club wants no part of reality 

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