2019 Playoffs. 1st round

[Boatdrinks]

19 minutes ago, Crayola64 said:

Doesn’t one win only clinch it if it’s against the steelers?  A win against patriots or jets puts us at 10 wins, can’t Steelers and Tennessee get to 11 and knock us out?

No. Either HOU or TEN will be out , Bills in with 1 more win. 

[Mark92]

1 hour ago, Crayola64 said:

Doesn’t one win only clinch it if it’s against the steelers?  A win against patriots or jets puts us at 10 wins, can’t Steelers and Tennessee get to 11 and knock us out?

Tennessee would win the South if they get to 11.  They play Houston twice in the next three games.  One more Buffalo win knocks whomever doesn't win the South out.  Pittsburgh can get to 11 but that would only hurt seeding.  Buffalo is in a good spot.  Win one more and they are in.  They could get in other ways but that's the easiest math.  

[jhh9327]

We can still win the division no matter what happens this coming week.  Wins against the Patriots and Jets and then the Patriots losing to Miami in week 17 gives us the division even if we lose to the Steelers based on same record and better division record. 

 

There are also realistic scenarios where we can clinch a wildcard by the end of week 16 even with losses both weeks.  It's pretty crazy how much has to go wrong for us not to make it in.  We lose out and the odds of making it are still over 50% right now. 

 

Still, let's just beat Pittsburgh and lock our place in the playoffs in. 

[Canadian Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Process said:

Are bills a lock for the 5 seed if they win this week? That would be huge. Would much rather go to Houston or Ten over KC. Assuming we don't win the division. 

 

 

Yes

[ColoradoBills]

5 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Guys it is Simple. 
 

NOTHING else Matters. 1 Win out of 3 and they are in. I know it is uncharted territory for fans owning your own playoff destiny but the Bills do. 
 

also Division is still in play. But need to win out and NE drop 2 of 3. 

 

1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

No. Either HOU or TEN will be out , Bills in with 1 more win. 

 

We know this BUT there are just too many fans who cannot enjoy that fact.  Some want to continue to look at doomsday scenarios

because they are "programmed" to respond that way.  Posters are even going so far to say if the Bills lose to PIT they don't deserve

the playoffs.  I can't understand that but none of us can change these people's minds.

 

I've ran many "plausible" scenarios where the Bills get in even losing all 3 games.  That fact makes me happy not sad!

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 hours ago, Process said:

Are bills a lock for the 5 seed if they win this week? That would be huge. Would much rather go to Houston or Ten over KC. Assuming we don't win the division. 

 

The Bills are a lock for the WC seed if they win this week.

 

Seeding is still up in the air if things get bad 

 

 

WRT Buffalo getting the AFC East

NE has to lose to Cincinnati or Miami (or both for the Bills to get the Division 

 

I don't see it any other way 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

 

[MDH]

 

6 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

The Bills are a lock for the WC seed if they win this week.

 

Seeding is still up in the air if things get bad 

 

 

 

Based on messing around with the ESPN Playoff Machine I couldn't find a way for the Bills to not be locked into, at least, the 5 seed if they win this week.  The difference between the 5 and 6 seed is huge. No way I want to go on the road to KC in the WC game. Much easier path the the division round if its @Hou or @Ten

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

6 minutes ago, MDH said:

 

Based on messing around with the ESPN Playoff Machine I couldn't find a way for the Bills to not be locked into, at least, the 5 seed if they win this week.  The difference between the 5 and 6 seed is huge. No way I want to go on the road to KC in the WC game. Much easier path the the division round if its @Hou or @Ten

There's a SLIM chance that IF Buffalo loses to the Steelers and Pats and wins against the JETS they get the 6th seed IF the Steelers win out 

 

BUT I'm looking at a 3 game Win streak for Buffalo   

Edited December 9, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Will be this weekend. Pittsburgh has always given us fits but this is a new team and Steelers are going down.

 

 

[jhh9327]

Completely viable scenario

 

Week 15:

Texans over Titans

Saints over Colts

 

Week 16:

Saints over Titans

 

Week 15 or 16:

Browns lose to Cardinals and/or Ravens

Raiders lose to Jags and/or Chargers

 

If this all happens, we clinch a spot before the Jets game even if we lose next two weeks.  Easily could happen.   

 

Or we just win on Sunday and make it really simple.

 

 

Edited December 9, 2019 by jhh9327

[ColoradoBills]

13 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

This is all far.... to your last scenario if they missed the playoffs on 4 straight losses it would be an epic disaster.

 

Yes, and I will deal with it on December 29th.  Wringing my hands now is epic foolishness.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28255391/the-race-afc-2-seed-alive-barnwell-next-2019-nfl-playoffs-involved

 

The race for the AFC 2-seed is alive: Barnwell on what's next in the 2019 NFL playoffs, who's involved

 

7. Tennessee Titans (8-5)

Chance to make the playoffs: 50.6%
Projected playoff matchup: Out of playoffs

 

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)

Chance to make the playoffs: 59.7%
Projected playoff matchup: at Chiefs

 

5. Buffalo Bills (9-4)

Chance to make the playoffs: 95.9%
Projected playoff matchup: at Texans

 

 

2. New England Patriots (10-3)

Chance to make the playoffs: 99.9%
Projected playoff matchup: First-round bye

Even given that the Patriots have lost to the three other division leaders in the AFC, they're still in good shape to come away with a first-round bye, though not the top overall seed. They control their destiny and have a relatively easy schedule to come, as two of their three remaining games are against the Bengals and Dolphins.

 

The Bills arguably outplayed the Patriots when the two teams played in Week 4, but this game will be in Foxborough, where the Pats had won 21 straight games before Sunday's loss to Kansas City.

[MAJBobby]

3 hours ago, Crayola64 said:

Doesn’t one win only clinch it if it’s against the steelers?  A win against patriots or jets puts us at 10 wins, can’t Steelers and Tennessee get to 11 and knock us out?

no win 1 of 3 they are in. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

47 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Quote

Doesn’t one win only clinch it if it’s against the steelers?  A win against patriots or jets puts us at 10 wins, can’t Steelers and Tennessee get to 11 and knock us out?

no win 1 of 3 they are in. 

 

Correct  1 win in any of the last 3 

 

The preference is to get it done Sunday Night 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2019/12/nfl-playoffs-2019-buffalo-bills-path-to-playoffs-is-simple-entering-week-15.html?outputType=amp
 

The Buffalo Bills may have lost 24-17 to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 14, but a lot of other games worked out in their favor. In fact, Buffalo’s path to the playoffs in Week 15 is pretty simple: Defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers.

That’s it.

The Bills do not need any other help leading up to Sunday Night Football next week. If the Bills can knock off the Steelers at Heinz Field, Buffalo will make the playoffs for the second time in three seasons under Sean McDermott.

 

https://amp.democratandchronicle.com/amp/4379069002

 

ORCHARD PARK – All the Buffalo Bills needed to do Sunday afternoon was take care of their own business against Baltimore, and they would have been celebrating their entrance into the NFL playoffs Sunday night.

[rayray808]

can the Bills lose to the Steelers, Pats and then beat the Jets and get in?

 

anyone know the exact scenarios based on wins and loses to see who we would play in the playoffs?

[Bray Wyatt]

3 minutes ago, rayray808 said:

can the Bills lose to the Steelers, Pats and then beat the Jets and get in?

 

anyone know the exact scenarios based on wins and loses to see who we would play in the playoffs?

we only have to win 1 game to get in, can even still get in if we lose out 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

29 minutes ago, rayray808 said:

can the Bills lose to the Steelers, Pats and then beat the Jets and get in?

 

anyone know the exact scenarios based on wins and loses to see who we would play in the playoffs?

scenarios are many.  
 

get 10 wins and we make it.  
 

 

I’ve run the Bills lose the next 2 and win against the Jets and they make it.  
 

use the ESPN machine and see what you get. 
 

[BuffaloBaumer]

Just get 5 seed, that is huge. Beat Pittsburgh and they get it no matter what,  correct?

[rayray808]

9 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

scenarios are many.  
 

get 10 wins and we make it.  
 

 

I’ve run the Bills lose the next 2 and win against the Jets and they make it.  
 

use the ESPN machine and see what you get. 
 

 

I think after next week it might be easier to figure out potential playoff match ups... as of now, statistically looking strong that we open up against the Texans

[billsfan5121]

8 hours ago, Crayola64 said:

Doesn’t one win only clinch it if it’s against the steelers?  A win against patriots or jets puts us at 10 wins, can’t Steelers and Tennessee get to 11 and knock us out?

The thing that’s probably been answered already is if the titans get to 11, that means they beat Houston twice, which means Houston would be 9-7 at best. That’s why it’s possible for just one win to make it. If Tennessee weren’t playing Houston twice (with Houston and Tennessee both at 5 losses), then we’d need more help.

We can also clinch, if I’m not mistaken, with all three being losses if.....

 

Tennessee loses 2

Oakland loses 1

cleveland loses 1 

 

So at this point, I would (to not worry), root for Baltimore to need week 17 against Cleveland.

 

Tennessee probably loses 2 (Hou, NO, Hou)

 

And Oakland to lose one of I think Jax, Chargers, Broncos (any one works).

 

So, even if we lose out, it’s going to be tough to miss at this point. We stacked enough wins early on to even “back in” to the playoffs.

 

Edit: I think we are above the colts in this scenario as well, even if they win out.

Edited December 10, 2019 by billsfan5121

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

Just get 5 seed, that is huge. Beat Pittsburgh and they get it no matter what,  correct?

No matter what 

 

 

1 hour ago, rayray808 said:

 

I think after next week it might be easier to figure out potential playoff match ups... as of now, statistically looking strong that we open up against the Texans

that is correct.  based on current estimates 
 

I think it was posted that a few pages back. 
or a different playoff thread 

 

Edited December 10, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Actually this page 

 

5. Buffalo Bills (9-4)

Chance to make the playoffs: 95.9%
Projected playoff matchup: at Texans

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001086559/article/2019-nfl-playoffclinching-scenarios-for-week-15

 

2019 NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 15

CLINCHED:

Baltimore Ravens - playoff berth

Kansas City Chiefs - AFC West Division

 

 

BUFFALO BILLS (9-4) (at Pittsburgh (8-5), Sunday, 8:20 PM ET, NBC)

Buffalo clinches playoff berth with:

1) BUF win

 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-3) (at Cincinnati (1-12), Sunday, 1:00 PM ET, CBS)

New England clinches playoff berth with:

NE win or tie

(Unless the NFL makes them forfeit the game)

Edited December 10, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

checking for 

@Ramza86

 

Yup  1 more win 

[Greg S]

With the exception of the Bills game I am really looking forward to watching the Texans/Titans. I don't know if we have the tiebreaker with Houston but we do with Tennessee so..... GO TEXANS!!!

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

With the exception of the Bills game I am really looking forward to watching the Texans/Titans. I don't know if we have the tiebreaker with Houston but we do with Tennessee so..... GO TEXANS!!!

well the Bills beat Denver and Denver crushed Houston. 

[MAJBobby]

22 hours ago, rayray808 said:

can the Bills lose to the Steelers, Pats and then beat the Jets and get in?

 

anyone know the exact scenarios based on wins and loses to see who we would play in the playoffs?

yes they win 1 game of the 3 they are in. 

[rayray808]

wait... so Bills win out, and Pats lose out = Bills the 2 seed and Pats out of the playoffs???

[MAJBobby]

Just now, rayray808 said:

wait... so Bills win out, and Pats lose out = Bills the 2 seed and Pats out of the playoffs???

yep. 

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

With the exception of the Bills game I am really looking forward to watching the Texans/Titans. I don't know if we have the tiebreaker with Houston but we do with Tennessee so..... GO TEXANS!!!

There’s no particular rooting interest for Bills fans there, unless in the doomsday scenario of the Bills finishing 9-7. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

7 minutes ago, rayray808 said:

wait... so Bills win out, and Pats lose out = Bills the 2 seed and Pats out of the playoffs???

 I don’t think it will go that far.  
 

but THAT would be sweet 

I just ran the machine and the Pats **** get the 5th seed.  

[MAJBobby]

11 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 I don’t think it will go that far.  
 

but THAT would be sweet 

I just ran the machine and the Pats **** get the 5th seed.  

There is a scenario that keeps them out of the playoffs. Other wise they wouldn’t need this week to clinch a playoff birth 

[MDH]

39 minutes ago, rayray808 said:

wait... so Bills win out, and Pats lose out = Bills the 2 seed and Pats out of the playoffs???

 

No, Bills would need the Chiefs to lose a game to get the 2 seed.

20 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

There is a scenario that keeps them out of the playoffs. Other wise they wouldn’t need this week to clinch a playoff birth 

 

There obviously is but I can’t find it messing with the playoff machine.

 

edit: Found it. If Pit, Hou, Tenn and NE all finish with 10 wins the Pats are the team that misses out.

Edited December 10, 2019 by MDH

[MAJBobby]

54 minutes ago, MDH said:

 

No, Bills would need the Chiefs to lose a game to get the 2 seed.

 

There obviously is but I can’t find it messing with the playoff machine.

 

edit: Found it. If Pit, Hou, Tenn and NE all finish with 10 wins the Pats are the team that misses out.

so Pitt getting to 10

Tenn and Houston would have to Split and Tenn beat Saints I Think 

NE lose out. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

There is a scenario that keeps them out of the playoffs. Other wise they wouldn’t need this week to clinch a playoff birth 

there is always a scenario.  
 

the odds for it to happen have to be like 1%. 
 

1 % is better than 0    ? 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

13 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

so Pitt getting to 10

Tenn and Houston would have to Split and Tenn beat Saints I Think 

NE lose out. 

 

That may happen ...  But I'm a closet Saints fan.  I think Brees wins that game 

14 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

There’s no particular rooting interest for Bills fans there, unless in the doomsday scenario of the Bills finishing 9-7. 

 

There is if you have a certain opponent you wish the Bills to play in the WC round 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/12/8/21002008/how-the-buffalo-bills-can-clinch-a-playoff-spot-in-week-15

 

the meat of the story 

Thanks to the Tennessee Titans’ win (8-5) and the Houston Texans’ loss (8-5) in Week 14, it has set up the AFC South death match Buffalo was hoping for. If the Titans win out, beating the Texans twice in the process, a ten-win Buffalo will pass a seven-loss Houston for the Wild Card spot. If the Texans beat the Titans in one of those games, the ten-win Bills are ahead of Tennessee.

 

Buffalo’s win would also come against the Pittsburgh Steelers, currently 8-5, and Buffalo would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over them at a hypothetical 10-6.

 

 

IF you want to go even further ....

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/12/8/21002014/how-the-buffalo-bills-can-still-win-the-afc-east-new-england-patriots

How the Buffalo Bills can still win the AFC East

 

We’ve done the math.

If the Bills lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15, the Bills can still win the division if the Patriots lose to the Dolphins in Week 17 and Buffalo wins in Weeks 16 (Patriots) and 17 (New York Jets).

 

The Bills can’t be eliminated from the AFC East race before Week 16, so that game is going to have implications one way or the other when Buffalo travels to Massachusetts.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

NFL Playoff Projection: Could Deshaun Watson and Texans miss the playoffs

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-playoff-projection-could-deshaun-watson-and-texans-miss-the-playoffs-151609349.html

 

The Houston Texans’ loss to the Denver Broncos was shocking because of the way they got dominated. They were down 38-3 at home to a 5-8 Broncos team with rookie quarterback Drew Lock.

 

No matter the margin, any loss to the Broncos was costly. There was no bigger loss by an NFL team in Week 14 as it pertains to the playoff picture. Not even close.

 

The Texans are in danger of losing the AFC South, and even a wild-card spot in a weak conference isn’t assured anymore. The Titans take over the Texans’ spot atop the division in this week’s playoff projection.

 

 

[Rampage]

Titans are playing lights out and I see them winning that division. No one wants to play them in the playoffs(aside from Baltimore obviously) and they’re firing on all cylinders. Each phase is on point.