2019 Playoffs. 1st round

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

If buffalo loses to Pitt, no playoffs for sure. If they do beat Pitt, I still think they will need Chargers to knock off the Chiefs in week 17 for us to get in....

 

Chargers to knock off the Chiefs is not in any reasonable scenario that I came across

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

Win against Denver, Pitt and NYJ and its a lock.   It shouldn't matter what the other teams do with one caveat 

 

 

If you base the machine to Win % I got the Bills out of the WC -   The LAST thing we need to see is a Houston Indy TIE 

Edited November 19, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[ngbills]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

Chargers to knock off the Chiefs is not in any reasonable scenario that I came across

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

Win against Denver, Pitt and NYJ and its a lock.   It shouldn't matter what the other teams do with one caveat 

 

 

If you base the machine to Win % I got the Bills out of the WC -   The LAST thing we need to see is a Houston Indy TIE 

We win these 3 and we are 10-6.

 

Still can miss out if Ind beats HOU and all else falls according to current win %. 

 

Per ESPN

OAK in at 11-5

IND in at 11-5

HOU in at 10-6

[Lenigmusx]

33 minutes ago, ngbills said:

We win these 3 and we are 10-6.

 

Still can miss out if Ind beats HOU and all else falls according to current win %. 

 

Per ESPN

OAK in at 11-5

IND in at 11-5

HOU in at 10-6

Run the table and win the division! 13-3 all the way. 

[KD in CA]

According to the NYT, the Bills can go 2-4 and still be 67% for the playoffs IF they beat Pittsburgh.

 

3-3 gets them in ~90% of the time regardless of who the wins come against.

[eball]

All I know is that if we go 13-3 we're in, and we have a >60% shot at a bye.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Week 12 Rooting Interests (Bolded teams):
 

Broncos vs. BILLS...8-3!
 

COLTS vs. Texans...Bringing the Colts to 7-4, and dropping the Texans to 6-5. It’s not ideal, but someone has to win. I think I’d prefer the Colts as the division winner. I’d want no part of having to play Watson in the playoffs round one. However, I think the Texans are the better team.

 

Raiders vs. JETS...We can always hope for them to fall to 6-5, but they’ll likely take care of business and end the week at 7-4, one game back from us.

 

DOLPHINS vs. Browns...I actually like the Dolphins here, and don’t think it’d be all that crazy to expect a good game

from the Phins. A Browns loss will hand them their 7th loss, likely taking them out of contention. 

 

Steelers vs. BENGALS...You just never know with division games...

JAGUARS vs. Titans...Both teams would then sit at 5-6. I’m not concerned about either, as I think they have a mixed bag along the rest of the way, and will both likely fizzle our to a disappointing 8-8 or 7-9

 

COWBOYS vs. Patriots...Let’s go!!!!! 

 

Ravens vs. RAMS...Not a huge deal here, but why not root for the NFC to serve up some humble pie and bring those birds back down to earth a few weeks  ahead of our meeting. Ravens are hot, and I bet they keep it rolling 

 

Teams on Byes: Chiefs, Chargers

 

Synopsis: This could be a very boring week for AFC teams looking to gain ground on the wild card. Many teams in the hunt play games vs. non-contenders and struggling teams. It’s also a chance for one of those teams to sneak a win, and the unfortunate victim to suffer a crippling loss. As many have stated, the only thing that matters is the Bills to win. I think that this point should be emphasized in a week where many contenders likely are looking at adding to their win columns. 
 

Playoff Predictions Post-Week 12:

 

Division Leaders: 

 

Patriots (9-2)

Ravens (9-2)

Chiefs (7-4)

Texans (7-4)

 

Wild Card: 

 

1) Bills (8-3)

2) Raiders (7-4)

 

In the Hunt: 

 

3) Steelers (6-5)

2) Colts (6-5)

5) Jaguars (5-6)

6) Browns (5-6)

7) Titans (5-6) 

 

Disclaimers: I am not sure who owns tie breakers, and am not willing to do the leg work on which 5th or 6th team has the H2H advantage in a hypothetical situation that probably won’t ever happen. 

[CSBill]

19 hours ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

There is a big Thursday night game with the Colts & Texans so one of those 2 teams will be getting a loss who are we rooting against ?

 

I think we root for the Texans, because if we win Sunday, we would hold a tie-breaker over the Colts the rest of the season (common opponents--according to another thread)

 

Or, "just win baby" that beats all tie-breakers

Edited November 20, 2019 by CSBill

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On 11/19/2019 at 3:14 PM, KD in CA said:

According to the NYT, the Bills can go 2-4 and still be 67% for the playoffs IF they beat Pittsburgh.

 

3-3 gets them in ~90% of the time regardless of who the wins come against.

 

I don't see it ...  Not unless all the other contenders do just a poorly.  

 

On 11/19/2019 at 9:29 PM, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

Disclaimers: I am not sure who owns tie breakers, and am not willing to do the leg work on which 5th or 6th team has the H2H advantage in a hypothetical situation that probably won’t ever happen.

 

 

 

 

AFC tiebreakers:

• Indianapolis is ahead of Houston in the AFC South based on head to head (1-0).
• Houston is ahead of Oakland based on head to head (1-0).
• Pittsburgh is ahead of Tennessee based on conference record (4-3 to the Titans' 3-4).
• Cleveland is ahead of Jacksonville based on conference record (Browns' 4-3 to the Jaguars' 4-4).
• Denver is ahead of the N.Y. Jets based on conference record (3-4 to the Jets' 0-6).

On 11/20/2019 at 5:52 AM, CSBill said:

 

I think we root for the Texans, because if we win Sunday, we would hold a tie-breaker over the Colts the rest of the season (common opponents--according to another thread)

 

Or, "just win baby" that beats all tie-breakers

 

Give the Colts the Div and let HOU sink.   Based on conference Wins Buffalo has a much better W/L ratio. 

 

[auburnbillsbacker]

There is a 46% chance that the Bills make the playoffs according to this nfl.com video.  

http://www.nfl.com/videos/game-theory/0ap3000001079033/Game-Theory-Every-team-s-chance-to-make-playoffs-as-of-Week-12

Edited November 21, 2019 by auburnbillsbacker

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

57 minutes ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

There is a 46% chance that the Bills make the playoffs according to this nfl.com video.  

http://www.nfl.com/videos/game-theory/0ap3000001079033/Game-Theory-Every-team-s-chance-to-make-playoffs-as-of-Week-12

 

Statistics.. You got to love them, and by that I mean they are useless.  46% to 80%   that's not a small margin of error 

 

[CorkScrewHill]

I am not cool enough to be able to start a thread .. .. so I thought this was the best place to put this.  Mohammed Sanu to be out potentially several weeks. Anything to hurt the Patriots is appreciated.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/patriots-mohamed-sanu-expected-to-miss-battle-with-cowboys-could-reportedly-be-sidelined-a-few-weeks/.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

NYT 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html

 

 

66%

2 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

I am not cool enough to be able to start a thread .. .. so I thought this was the best place to put this.  Mohammed Sanu to be out potentially several weeks. Anything to hurt the Patriots is appreciated.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/patriots-mohamed-sanu-expected-to-miss-battle-with-cowboys-could-reportedly-be-sidelined-a-few-weeks/.

 

Thank You.  well sort of.

   

  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Not that I'm a fan of Buffalo Rumblings  but they do have some good things to post 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/m/78cffebe-a642-32cc-a5df-bf19a768bbea/afc-playoff-picture%3A-bills.html

 

Buffalo Bills (7-3) over Denver Broncos (3-7)
Sunday, November 24, 1:00 PM Eastern

If the Bills want to make the postseason, all they have to do is beat the teams with worse records than them. They have four such games remaining and only need to win three, in all likelihood. It starts this week with a struggling offense at home against the Broncos.

 

Playoff Odds: Bills up to 66% chance of postseason berth

The Buffalo Bills maintained a healthy lead in the AFC playoff race with their win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. With their 7-3 record, they have a 66% chance of making the playoffs according to the New York Times Playoff Simulator. That's up from 60% a week ago but down from 72%, where they sat before the loss to the Cleveland Browns. According to the Times, Buffalo only has a 3% chance of winning the AFC East, a disappointing number. Even if Buffalo beats the New England Patriots in Week 16, the number only climbs slightly to 8%, but it would dramatically impact their overall chances of making the playoffs. A win on Sunday boosts Buffalo chances to 78%, but a loss drops them to just 48%,

[RiotAct]

 I’m thinking we root for Houston, in order to push Indy down ever further...

[Scott7975]

On 11/19/2019 at 10:44 AM, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

In past seasons,  at the midway point,the Bills were always chasing the WC.   

 

This season they have control of the WC. 

Just Win Baby!!! 

 

 

Yeah it wasn't long ago we would already be trying to convince ourselves that we can win out the next 6 and 2 other teams could lose 2 more games.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, RiotAct said:

 I’m thinking we root for Houston, in order to push Indy down ever further...

 

Nope.  Thats the opposite of what we want 

 

Full AFC Playoff Standings

1. New England Patriots (9-1)
2. Baltimore Ravens (8-2)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
4. Indianapolis Colts (6-4, head-to-head win over HOU)
5. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
6. Houston Texans (6-4, head-to-head loss to IND, head-to-head win over OAK)

 

 

You / We want Houston to fall further down the ladder 

 

Edited November 21, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

AND 

 

 The LAST thing we need to see is a Houston Indy TIE 

[RiotAct]

wow you’re right; I completely forgot that Indy is currently leading the AFCS.  What a weak division.

[Greg S]

I actually think the Jets have a good shot to upset the Raiders. WC team coming east for a 1:00 game. Gut feeling no other reason.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

49 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

wow you’re right; I completely forgot that Indy is currently leading the AFCS.  What a weak division.

Weak?.  Tough Inter division competition might fit better. 
Just saying