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Protocal69

Josh Allen Interceptions

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Posted (edited)

I was bored at my overnight job so I decided to take a hard look at of Josh Allen interceptions in 2018 to see if there was any trend to how/why they occurred. Here is the  raw data:

 

Week 2 vs Chargers ( Home) Loss 20-31
 

Situation:    3 and 4 AT LAC 36 
Clock:         2:54 
Qtr:        3
Score: 13-28
Play:   Scramble to right to sideline under pressure in the grasp throw in coverage (Hero Ball)

 

Situation: 1ST & 10 AT BUF 2 
Clock:         7:11 
Qtr:         4th   
Score: 28-13 
Play: Threw it short to Croom defender under cut route zone


Week 4 vs Greenbay ( Away) Loss 0-22

 

Situation: 3rd and 5 at Green Bay 20
Clock:  0:56 sec 
Qtr: 2nd  
Score: 0-13

Play: Scramble to right under pressure to sideline, threw into coverage in the endzone ( Hero Ball)

 

Situation: 3rd and 18 at Buf 49
Clock:     6:19    
Qtr:    3rd 
Score: 0-19
Play: threw in tight window to Benjamin off target Benjamin did try to reach for ball
 

Week 5 vs Tennessee ( Home) Win 13-12

 

Situation: 2nd and 7 at Buf 40
Clock:     8:04    
Qtr:    4th
Score: 10-9
Play: playaction off Holmes hand tip INT


Week 13 vs Miami ( Away ) Loss 17-21
 

Situation: 1st and 10 at Mia 41
Clock: 0:05        
Qtr: 2nd 
Score:6-14
Play: end of half hall mary pass *

 

Situation: 3rd and 10 at Buf 41
Clock: 0:43        
Qtr: 3rd     
Score: 9-14
Play: clean pocket CB undercut route ignored wide open check-down to HB (Murphy)


Week 14 vs Jets ( Home) Loss 23-27

 

Situation: 1st and 25 at Buf 15
Clock:     5:00    
Qtr:    2nd
Score: 17-13
Play: Pressure up middle scrambles to right to sideline threw into coverage ( Hero Ball)

 

Situation: 2nd and 10 from Buf 23
Clock:     1:07     
Qtr: 4th    
Score: 23-27
Play: 50/50 ball to Zay Jones Ball threw to far inside for Zay Jones vs Cover 2


Week 16 vs New England ( Away) Loss 12-24

 

Situation: 1st and 10 at Buf 37
Clock:     9:53    
Qtr: 2nd     
Score: 0-14
Play: threw into coverage vs Cover 2 zone

 

Situation: 2nd and 10 at Buf 47
Clock: 4:07        
Qtr: 4th    
Score: 6-24
Play: Ball undercut by DB (Man to Man)

 

Week 17 vs Miami ( Home) Win 42-17

 

Situation: 2nd and 12 at Buf 23
Clock:     0:48    
Qtr:    2nd Qrt
Score:  14-7
Play: attempted to hit comeback route over middle to Croom Did not see Saftey Rashard Jones lurking near the play  Pick 6 

 

Games were he didnt throw a Interception:

Week 1 vs Ravens ( Away) Loss 3-47 Mop Up Time
Week 3 vs Min-( Away) Win 27-6 
Week 6 vs Houston -( Away) Loss 13-20  Injured in game -Incomplete 
Week 11 vs Jacksonville ( Home) Win 24-21 
Week 14 vs Detriot ( Home) Win  14-13

 

Home: 6 Ints

Away: 6 Ints

 

Interception By Down:

1st: 4

2nd: 4

3rd: 4

 

Interception By Qtr

1st: NONE

2nd: 5

3rd: 3

4th: 4

 

Interception By Distance to 1st Down:

        More than 10 yards to 1st:        3

        Exactly 10 yards to 1st:             6       

        Less than 10 yards to 1st:         3

 

 

 

Summary/Trends:

10/12 Interception were against 5 teams:  New England(2) *Miami(3)*, Jets(2) Chargers(2), Green Bay(2) - 

(* In the 2 interception game vs Dolphins the 1 interception was a end of half Hall- Mary pass)

 

- Very evident that Josh Allen does need to start taking the check down

- Needs to get better a reading coverages.

- I will say that the 2 interception that Allen threw against New England and the pick 6 he threw vs the Dolphins he was fooled more than anything else 

- most of his interceptions were in my opinion was him trying to do too much. Live by the sword die by the sword.

 

I know this is not some ground breaking stuff for those like us that watch our team game in game out. The coaches had to see this same infomation and is the reason why the they are getting the players on offense that is needed to help Josh Allen get better in year 2.

 

I'll try to get a video added for each interception for visual recollection

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Protocal69
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I do think we will need to come to terms with some level of interceptions. QBs that are aggressive will always throw more interceptions. Hopefully its offset by scoring points though.

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Just now, jletha said:

I do think we will need to come to terms with some level of interceptions. QBs that are aggressive will always throw more interceptions. Hopefully its offset by scoring points though.

 

Brett Favre has an unbreakable record for most career interceptions and I'm sure we'd be happy if Josh matched Favre's career.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Forward Progress said:

 

Brett Favre has an unbreakable record for most career interceptions and I'm sure we'd be happy if Josh matched Favre's career.

I was just going to post the same thing. 

Edited by MakeBuffaloGreatAgain

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The ‘live by the sword, die by the sword’ is exactly right. Thanks for doing this. 

 

Last year, Josh was forced to be the entire offense too many times and that leads to the stats he had. 

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Great break down sir. I can appreciate when a fan takes time out to do this sort of thing. I actually think the results are great as it shows there is no trend to break. All of it can be coached up and with our upgrades Im expecting Allen to have a Mahomes like second year.  Not 50 TD's/MVP race type year but going from a ? mark to undeniably considered a top tier QB and respected around the league. Gonna be fun to watch and what a rare treat for us Bills fans.

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2 hours ago, Forward Progress said:

 

Brett Favre has an unbreakable record for most career interceptions and I'm sure we'd be happy if Josh matched Favre's career.

Yep. Even Drew Brees used to throw a ton of interceptions. Recently is has gotten them to come down and has entered the best ever discussion. I used to have him in fantasy though and it felt like he was always good for 1-2 a game. I would gladly take 30+ passing TDs this year and 12-15 ints though for Josh this season while he learns.

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I expect fewer interceptions this year.

  • He tried to be the hero when far behind scorewise; to wit his throws into coverage and failure to use checkdown. Expect closer scores, less heroics.
  • He has better targets.
  • He'll have more time.
  • I expect he's done something this offseason to improve accuracy.
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1 hour ago, Juice_32 said:

Is your company hiring?

Lol, and furthermore its nice he took the time - but that doesn't seem like it wod be fun - unless of course numbers are fun and then to each their own!

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5 hours ago, Forward Progress said:

 

Brett Favre has an unbreakable record for most career interceptions and I'm sure we'd be happy if Josh matched Favre's career.

I agree wholeheartedly,  I'd take Josh having Brett's trajectory anyday over guys like Rob Johnson,  Trent Edwards or JP Losman. 

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7 hours ago, TroutDog said:

The ‘live by the sword, die by the sword’ is exactly right. Thanks for doing this. 

 

Last year, Josh was forced to be the entire offense too many times and that leads to the stats he had. 

Yeah I said that because especially with the scrambles to the sidelines where he threw some ints he also hit some big pass plays to McCoy and Ivory doing the exact same thing.

7 hours ago, Juice_32 said:

Is your company hiring?

Lol. They actually just hired a bunch of people. I think they are going to start again soon. BTW I do tech support for Business customers for our local ISP

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5 hours ago, gobills1212 said:

Lol, and furthermore its nice he took the time - but that doesn't seem like it wod be fun - unless of course numbers are fun and then to each their own!

Thanks to NFL gamepass it was easy because they have a filter where you can put in a players name, choice whatever criteria you want to look at and it will show you videos of just those plays. At that point you can look at both the at TV and or the ALL 22 view

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9 hours ago, Forward Progress said:

 

Brett Favre has an unbreakable record for most career interceptions and I'm sure we'd be happy if Josh matched Favre's career.

 

...quite the laughable bi-polar dichotomy, isn't it?...Brett throws five picks and he gets a pass as the "gunslinging gambler"......Josh throws five picks and he's on the lump charcoal with an UBER ride out faster than you can say "Nate Peterman"...YAWN........

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Great diagnostics by the OP. The questions as we all know, does Josh take the next step and does he gel with his new receiver and does the new O line protect him? My hopes are high that it all comes together for a 9-7 or 10-6 season. A playoff berth would be icing on the cake. 

 

 

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Yes, But this is so last year!

 

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3 hours ago, Protocal69 said:

Thanks to NFL gamepass it was easy because they have a filter where you can put in a players name, choice whatever criteria you want to look at and it will show you videos of just those plays. At that point you can look at both the at TV and or the ALL 22 view

Ya, i didnt mean it as a knock at all. It just seemed like it would be a lot of work. I enjoy watching breakdowns and going back for later viewings etc, but have never considered 'charting' something like that just bc. Kudos

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17 hours ago, Protocal69 said:

I was bored at my overnight job so I decided to take a hard look at of Josh Allen interceptions in 2018 to see if there was any trend to how/why they occurred. Here is the  raw data:

 

Week 2 vs Chargers ( Home) Loss 20-31
 

Situation:    3 and 4 AT LAC 36 
Clock:         2:54 
Qtr:        3
Score: 13-28
Play:   Scramble to right to sideline under pressure in the grasp throw in coverage (Hero Ball)

 

Situation: 1ST & 10 AT BUF 2 
Clock:         7:11 
Qtr:         4th   
Score: 28-13 
Play: Threw it short to Croom defender under cut route zone


Week 4 vs Greenbay ( Away) Loss 0-22

 

Situation: 3rd and 5 at Green Bay 20
Clock:  0:56 sec 
Qtr: 2nd  
Score: 0-13

Play: Scramble to right under pressure to sideline, threw into coverage in the endzone ( Hero Ball)

 

Situation: 3rd and 18 at Buf 49
Clock:     6:19    
Qtr:    3rd 
Score: 0-19
Play: threw in tight window to Benjamin off target Benjamin did try to reach for ball
 

Week 5 vs Tennessee ( Home) Win 13-12

 

Situation: 2nd and 7 at Buf 40
Clock:     8:04    
Qtr:    4th
Score: 10-9
Play: playaction off Holmes hand tip INT


Week 13 vs Miami ( Away ) Loss 17-21
 

Situation: 1st and 10 at Mia 41
Clock: 0:05        
Qtr: 2nd 
Score:6-14
Play: end of half hall mary pass *

 

Situation: 3rd and 10 at Buf 41
Clock: 0:43        
Qtr: 3rd     
Score: 9-14
Play: clean pocket CB undercut route ignored wide open check-down to HB (Murphy)


Week 14 vs Jets ( Home) Loss 23-27

 

Situation: 1st and 25 at Buf 15
Clock:     5:00    
Qtr:    2nd
Score: 17-13
Play: Pressure up middle scrambles to right to sideline threw into coverage ( Hero Ball)

 

Situation: 2nd and 10 from Buf 23
Clock:     1:07     
Qtr: 4th    
Score: 23-27
Play: 50/50 ball to Zay Jones Ball threw to far inside for Zay Jones vs Cover 2


Week 16 vs New England ( Away) Loss 12-24

 

Situation: 1st and 10 at Buf 37
Clock:     9:53    
Qtr: 2nd     
Score: 0-14
Play: threw into coverage vs Cover 2 zone

 

Situation: 2nd and 10 at Buf 47
Clock: 4:07        
Qtr: 4th    
Score: 6-24
Play: Ball undercut by DB (Man to Man)

 

Week 17 vs Miami ( Home) Win 42-17

 

Situation: 2nd and 12 at Buf 23
Clock:     0:48    
Qtr:    2nd Qrt
Score:  14-7
Play: attempted to hit comeback route over middle to Croom Did not see Saftey Rashard Jones lurking near the play  Pick 6 

 

Games were he didnt throw a Interception:

Week 1 vs Ravens ( Away) Loss 3-47 Mop Up Time
Week 3 vs Min-( Away) Win 27-6 
Week 6 vs Houston -( Away) Loss 13-20  Injured in game -Incomplete 
Week 11 vs Jacksonville ( Home) Win 24-21 
Week 14 vs Detriot ( Home) Win  14-13

 

Home: 6 Ints

Away: 6 Ints

 

Interception By Down:

1st: 4

2nd: 4

3rd: 4

 

Interception By Qtr

1st: NONE

2nd: 5

3rd: 3

4th: 4

 

Interception By Distance to 1st Down:

        More than 10 yards to 1st:        3

        Exactly 10 yards to 1st:             6       

        Less than 10 yards to 1st:         3

 

 

 

Summary/Trends:

10/12 Interception were against 5 teams:  New England(2) *Miami(3)*, Jets(2) Chargers(2), Green Bay(2) - 

(* In the 2 interception game vs Dolphins the 1 interception was a end of half Hall- Mary pass)

 

- Very evident that Josh Allen does need to start taking the check down

- Needs to get better a reading coverages.

- I will say that the 2 interception that Allen threw against New England and the pick 6 he threw vs the Dolphins he was fooled more than anything else 

- most of his interceptions were in my opinion was him trying to do too much. Live by the sword die by the sword.

 

I know this is not some ground breaking stuff for those like us that watch our team game in game out. The coaches had to see this same infomation and is the reason why the they are getting the players on offense that is needed to help Josh Allen get better in year 2.

 

I'll try to get a video added for each interception for visual recollection

 

Good stuff! 

 

When you got a QB who is willing to sling it, never going to eliminate those INTs.  But it's pretty clear he could improve a lot if he cut  back on the "Hero Ball" and took more of what the defense was giving him (checkdowns)

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I'd rather have an aggressive QB that you have to rein in than a timid QB you beg to be more aggressive.

 

We'll see his INT's lower as he gains more experience.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, jletha said:

I do think we will need to come to terms with some level of interceptions. QBs that are aggressive will always throw more interceptions. Hopefully its offset by scoring points though.

From the Ultimate Gunslinger -   508 TD vs 336 INT

 

and Big Ben, to whom everyone compares Josh.... 363 TD vs 190 INT

 

On the other hand Tom Brady -   517 TD vs  ONLY 171 INT

Edited by ganesh

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Posted (edited)
On 5/21/2019 at 6:48 AM, Protocal69 said:

Summary/Trends:

10/12 Interception were against 5 teams:  New England(2) *Miami(3)*, Jets(2) Chargers(2), Green Bay(2) - 

(* In the 2 interception game vs Dolphins the 1 interception was a end of half Hall- Mary pass)

 

- Very evident that Josh Allen does need to start taking the check down

- Needs to get better a reading coverages.

- I will say that the 2 interception that Allen threw against New England and the pick 6 he threw vs the Dolphins he was fooled more than anything else 

- most of his interceptions were in my opinion was him trying to do too much. Live by the sword die by the sword.

 

I know this is not some ground breaking stuff for those like us that watch our team game in game out. The coaches had to see this same infomation and is the reason why the they are getting the players on offense that is needed to help Josh Allen get better in year 2.

 

I'll try to get a video added for each interception for visual recollection

 

 

I'd definitely be interested in those videos.  Maybe I'll help you compile them.  Let me know.  

 

Here's a great analysis of his INTs in his final season at Wyoming.  

 

 

What's interesting about his INTs that season is that they were all against the best teams that he faced.  None of the teams that he had 0 INTs against fielded any defensive players in either the 2017 or 2018 drafts.  The two that were drafted were a K in the 7th and a WR.  

 

The only two defenders drafted in '17 or '18 on the teams that he pitched the INTs against were Vander Esch and Vallejo.  

 

The things that you cite were well-known prior to his draft.  

 

Here's the issue in addressing the obvious, how do you coach a QB to check down and how do you coach a QB to read coverage at this stage of the game so to speak.  It's a rhetorical question but a very serious one.  Those are not issues that are easily addressed.  Allen did neither well in college, doing them well now here will be a tall order.  

 

The thing that you said that resonates with me the most was this;  

 

- most of his interceptions were in my opinion was him trying to do too much. Live by the sword die by the sword.

 

I completely agree.  He plays like he's superman, which is a losing long-term proposition for a number of reasons.  To start, he's on a team with 10 others players on the field at any given time all with the same goals in mind.  If they aren't utilized effectively then it's a lost cause out-of-the-gate.  

 

It's "fun and all" that he ran around like a madman, but lost on just about everyone is that as a pure passer he was far from average much less even good.  In fact, his week 17 stats, in the type of game that won't be on the schedule this season despite how easy the schedule is, massively skewed his total stats, which were bottom-dwelling.  Prior to week 17 Allen and Rosen were neck-and-neck in vying for worst passer in the NFL.   Priot to week 17 he had 7 TDs and 11 INTs.  Had he finished the season w/o that last game the criticism would have been far more existent.  For some perspective, Rosen finished with 11 TDs and 14 INTs in 13 starts to Allen's 11.  As averages Rosen averaged .85 TDs/game and 1 INT/game in his 13 starts.  Prior to that Miami game Allen averaged .64 TDs/game and 1 INT/game in his starts.  Even on the season including that final Miami game Allen averaged .91 TDs/game and 1.09 INTs/game in all of his starts.  Rosen was better in the red zone too throwing 7 RZ TDs contrasted with Allen's 4, only 2 of which were prior to week 17.  

 

The million-dollar question is can Allen play more like he did in week 17, amidst a whole lot of positive emotion and a perfect-storm of circumstance and environment, at home too we should add, or more like he did the rest of the season.  If the former then he's destined for super-stardom.  If the latter, well, not so much as he's a lot more likely to follow Rosen's path.  

 

I've only seen one national level analyst that seems to get it.  https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ranking-the-nfls-top-triplets-from-32-1-for-the-2019-season/

 

Allen had a productive rookie season ... on the ground. But he's a quarterback, and he needs to be more productive through the air. 

 

How much more productive?  That's a relative question, but I'd strongly suggest that he needs to at absolute minimum beat both Taylor's and Fitzpatrick's best seasons with the Bills, which includes minimizing TOs.  Fitzpatrick's best was over 60% for 3,400 yards, 24 TDs to 16 INTs.  Taylor's best was 63.7% for over 3,000 yards, 20 TDs, 6 INTs.  Average last season in the NFL was about 66%, 3,700 yards, 22 TDs, 11 INTs.  If he can't do that this season then questions will appropriately begin to arise.  

 

Again tho, you've seen and understand his issues.  How to correct those is another issue.  QBs with residual defense-reading and checkdown issues from college A, typically aren't drafted in the 1st-round, and B, typically also don't excel in the NFL.  The ones that excel did it well in college, and while they may have struggled initially, and some not, in the NFL, but at the end of the day they managed to translate it to the NFL.  So while it shouldn't be written off, it's a much bigger issue than most care to admit.  

 

Obviously we're all hoping that it happens, but far too many people, fans and media alike, are assuming that it's a shoe-in when the opposite is the case, namely, that Allen will all but be charting unfamiliar territory if he manages to do so.  Think about it, he's being expected to go from bottom-dwelling as a passer to average or better this season.  That's an enormous expectation and quite frankly, I'm not sure a reasonable one.  

 

Edited by TaskersGhost
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On 5/21/2019 at 12:00 PM, boater said:

I expect fewer interceptions this year.

  • He tried to be the hero when far behind scorewise; to wit his throws into coverage and failure to use checkdown. Expect closer scores, less heroics.
  • He has better targets.
  • He'll have more time.
  • I expect he's done something this offseason to improve accuracy.

I agree particularly because he didnt have any 1st quarter interceptions. That should also indicate some hero ball.

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12 hours ago, ganesh said:

From the Ultimate Gunslinger -   508 TD vs 336 INT

 

Farve's a great comparison.  He played hero ball his whole career but got more efficient as he gained experience   

 

Still, his completion percentage over his first five years was 10 points higher than Allen's rookie average, so there's a lot of room for growth on Josh's part...  

 

Farve:

Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV
1991 22 ATL   4 2 0   0 4 0.0 0 0 0.0 2 50.0 0 0.0 -22.5   0.0 0.0   1 11 -2.20 -20.20 20.0     0
1992* 23 GNB QB 4 15 13 8-5-0 302 471 64.1 3227 18 3.8 13 2.8 76 6.9 6.4 10.7 215.1 85.3   34 208 5.98 5.53 6.7 3 3 12
1993* 24 GNB QB 4 16 16 9-7-0 318 522 60.9 3303 19 3.6 24 4.6 66 6.3 5.0 10.4 206.4 72.2   30 199 5.62 4.36 5.4 3 3 13
1994 25 GNB QB 4 16 16 9-7-0 363 582 62.4 3882 33 5.7 14 2.4 49 6.7 6.7 10.7 242.6 90.7   31 188 6.03 6.08 5.1 1 2 16
1995*+ 26 GNB QB 4 16 16 11-5-0 359 570 63.0 4413 38 6.7 13 2.3 99 7.7 8.0 12.3 275.8 99.5   33 217 6.96 7.25 5.5 0 1 1

 

 

Allen:

Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV
Career       12 11 5-6-0 169 320 52.8 2074 10 3.1 12 3.8 75 6.5 5.4 12.3 172.8 67.9   28 213 5.35 4.37 8.0 2 3 6
2018 22 BUF QB 17 12 11 5-6-0 169 320 52.8 2074 10 3.1 12 3.8 75 6.5 5.4 12.3 172.8 67.9 52.3 28 213 5.35 4.37 8.0 2 3 6

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I would rather us see 12 picks and 28 TDs than see 5 picks and 15 TDs. We need to play in the 2019 NFL if we want to be a true contender again......

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