thebandit27 Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 Here's a very cool, detailed analysis by Football Outsiders on success of each route in the NFL tree on third down. Definitely worth a read: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/third-down-and-air-yards Might provoke some good discussion now that we've entered the doldrums of the offseason. 1 2
badassgixxer05 Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 Guessing right on what the defense will be running will have the best results no matter what offense you will be running.
eball Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 On 5/2/2019 at 3:11 PM, badassgixxer05 said: Guessing right on what the defense will be running will have the best results no matter what offense you will be running. Expand Great insight! Catching the ball will result in more completions as well. 6 1
thebandit27 Posted May 2, 2019 Author Posted May 2, 2019 On 5/2/2019 at 3:13 PM, eball said: Great insight! Catching the ball will result in more completions as well. Expand Funny stuff. I especially liked the item in the article that talked about the difference in EPA between a deep ball INT on 3rd down and a short completion. For years, I've said that deep throws attempted on 3rd down cannot possibly have a bad result; the worst case scenario is it becomes a punt. Best case is a DPI or TD. Hopefully, now that the Bills (presumably) have an OL that can pass protect for more than 1/3 of a second, we'll see more 3rd down deep shots this year. 1
LeviF Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 (edited) On 5/2/2019 at 3:59 PM, thebandit27 said: Funny stuff. I especially liked the item in the article that talked about the difference in EPA between a deep ball INT on 3rd down and a short completion. For years, I've said that deep throws attempted on 3rd down cannot possibly have a bad result; the worst case scenario is it becomes a punt. Best case is a DPI or TD. Hopefully, now that the Bills (presumably) have an OL that can pass protect for more than 1/3 of a second, we'll see more 3rd down deep shots this year. Expand Well, there's always the scenario of a big return off an INT. Not sure how likely that is vs. a big return off a punt, but I get your point. Part of what was encouraging to me last year was the willingness to throw it past the sticks on 3rd and 7+. Now there's data to help support my assumption! Not that data to the contrary would have changed my mind. I am a football fan, after all. Edited May 2, 2019 by LeviF91
H2o Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 There are a lot of contributing factors here. Distance to first down, the WR running the routes, the QB throwing the ball, and the defensive formation. I can see where the Post and Corner routes would be more successful as it puts more pressure on the Safeties, CB's, and LB's possibly dropping into Zone coverages.
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 Is this where Cole Beasley becomes our Hero?? Speaking of ..... Has there been a Cole Beasley sighting in Buffalo?????????
Wayne Cubed Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 A lot of the route choices look like the ole "live to fight another day" conservatism that still remains in the NFL. It's odd. It's a lot like going for it on 4th down, that is slowly being changed.
MAJBobby Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 I hate Route concepts that bring a WR short of the sticks on third down. Seems just as much of a give up play as the Shaud Williams draw was
BillsSbSoon Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 I like calls that have man and zone beaters combined. And then you get to the line and adjust from there if needed
Boatdrinks Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 On 5/2/2019 at 4:40 PM, MAJBobby said: I hate Route concepts that bring a WR short of the sticks on third down. Seems just as much of a give up play as the Shaud Williams draw was Expand I agree as we’ve often gotten terrible results on these plays. Makes it even more maddening when you see the Pats* WR make a 4 yard reception on 3rd and 7 , yet you just know they will pick up the first. ?
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 On 5/2/2019 at 4:40 PM, MAJBobby said: I hate Route concepts that bring a WR short of the sticks on third down. Seems just as much of a give up play as the Shaud Williams draw was Expand There has to be a concept of crossing routed near the sticks and some speedsters going deep. We have deep threats and with Bease we have a short to medium threat.
eball Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 On 5/2/2019 at 3:59 PM, thebandit27 said: Funny stuff. I especially liked the item in the article that talked about the difference in EPA between a deep ball INT on 3rd down and a short completion. For years, I've said that deep throws attempted on 3rd down cannot possibly have a bad result; the worst case scenario is it becomes a punt. Best case is a DPI or TD. Hopefully, now that the Bills (presumably) have an OL that can pass protect for more than 1/3 of a second and a QB with a Howitzer we'll see more 3rd down deep shots this year. Expand See emphasis above. I completely agree when you're talking 3rd and long -- not so much when it's 3rd and 5 or less. You need to move the chains. I'm very much in favor of deep shots on 2nd down, though. 1
HOUSE Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 On 5/2/2019 at 3:10 PM, thebandit27 said: Here's a very cool, detailed analysis by Football Outsiders on success of each route in the NFL tree on third down. Definitely worth a read: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/third-down-and-air-yards Might provoke some good discussion now that we've entered the doldrums of the offseason. Expand Not True, the Robert Kraft thread could go on for months
chris heff Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 On 5/2/2019 at 5:29 PM, eball said: See emphasis above. I completely agree when you're talking 3rd and long -- not so much when it's 3rd and 5 or less. You need to move the chains. I'm very much in favor of deep shots on 2nd down, though. Expand Best time to take a deep shot is second and two. On 5/2/2019 at 5:40 PM, HOUSE said: Not True, the Robert Kraft thread could go on for months Expand Or it might only last seconds.
SoCal Deek Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 You stack two WRs in the slot and the one in the back rubs off the one in the front based on the alignment of the secondary. It essentially works every time. Assuming the distance is reasonable it’s virtually impossible to stop and can’t understand why the Bills have never figured this out.
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 Now with 17 on the Bills, the ‘best route’?: ‘Run like a mofo, catch it, and don’t drop it!’
Buffalo Boy Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 The one that gets you a first down??? Man, I ought to be a coach
bmur66 Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 On 5/2/2019 at 3:59 PM, thebandit27 said: Funny stuff. I especially liked the item in the article that talked about the difference in EPA between a deep ball INT on 3rd down and a short completion. For years, I've said that deep throws attempted on 3rd down cannot possibly have a bad result; the worst case scenario is it becomes a punt. Best case is a DPI or TD. Hopefully, now that the Bills (presumably) have an OL that can pass protect for more than 1/3 of a second, we'll see more 3rd down deep shots this year. Expand Jim Kelly used to be the master of going long on 3rd down. Worst case it’s like a punt. Much better chance of a pass interference call these days too.
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