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Why I think T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa, will be the #9 pick


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On 4/6/2019 at 6:25 AM, GimmeSomeProcess said:

I like Hockenson a lot but nothing at him screams a generational talent. I think he could develop maybe into a tightend like Whitten but I see more heath miller/Todd heap.

While I’d like a player of that caliber on this roster, I would not pass on him

for a guy like Ed Oliver. Especially when we can still get a tight end like Irv Smith, Josh Oliver, Jace Stenberger or Foster Meanru in the 2nd or 3rd. 

 

Now Noah Fant that’s different 

So the floor is 500 catches and 50 TD's? Yes please.

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12 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I think Fant goes before Hockinson.  He is the more natural route runner, the better redzone threat, and the kind of dynamic athlete that is drafted high. 

It would be hilarious in here if Beane drafted Fant with Hock still on the board, especially if he traded up for him.:lol:

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15 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Fant will certainly be a first rounder. Wouldn't be shocked if he went before Hock. The NFL loves UPSIDE. I prefer Hockenson, but Fant is seen as having a higher ceiling. Irv Smith is highly unlikely to go in the first and could potentially fall to the 4th. I think 3rd is most likely. The guy is 6'3 and not much of a blocker. I think he's an intriguing prospect, but the concerns are there and the upside isn't great enough to justify a first round grade.

 

I struggle with the Irv Smith value setting.

 

He was very productive in college, but his combine measurements actually only put him at 6' 2". Many WRs today are bigger.

 

I don't see much in the way of a size mismatch for him at the NFL level, so blocking is probably meh, and out competing in space will be harder with how d coordinators will match him up against larger safeties and dbs, or smaller linebackers in the Milano mold.

 

He's a gamer and I like his compete, but I think he will struggle finding his game at the pro level. We will see...

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Billsrhody said:

Will Hock be better than Kroft over the next 2 years? Probably not because of the transition to the league.. so if the goal is to help Allen then I don’t see this being the pick. 

 

He and Fant will likely be better than Kroft.

 

Iowa does a solid job recruiting TE prospects and coaches up the most pro-ready TEs out there. Bucky Brooks referred to them as Tight End U in an article he wrote about "gold jacket" draft prospects.

 

The coach there spent a few years on NEs staff coaching the TE position so you see guys like Kittle (another IA product) come in and break records in his second year.

 

These guys won't have a long learning curve, especially not Hockenson. Fant neither if used primarily as a flex option receiver.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

I think Fant goes before Hockinson.  He is the more natural route runner, the better redzone threat, and the kind of dynamic athlete that is drafted high. 

 

Not completely true.

 

Hockenson is the more polished route runner and dominating blocker. Both measured great on the shuttle/agility drills.

 

Fant is faster and has an unbelievable range to high point the ball ....so agree with the red zone threat.

 

Depends what a team is looking for...if you are just looking for a big receiver who creates mismatches and can out run DBs then Fant is your guy, if you are looking for a TE who can block or get open for passes then it is Hock.

 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I struggle with the Irv Smith value setting.

 

He was very productive in college, but his combine measurements actually only put him at 6' 2". Many WRs today are bigger.

 

I don't see much in the way of a size mismatch for him at the NFL level, so blocking is probably meh, and out competing in space will be harder with how d coordinators will match him up against larger safeties and dbs, or smaller linebackers in the Milano mold.

 

He's a gamer and I like his compete, but I think he will struggle finding his game at the pro level. We will see...

 

 

I think his max ceiling is Jared Cook and he's not likely to ever reach that level. Cook is 6'5 254 and someone you have to gameplan around. Cook is a nice player, but not versatile enough to be elite. I personally view Smith as a 3rd or 4th round guy and agree he'll struggle finding a niche.

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If Ed Oliver is available, IMO the Bills run to podium.  The draft is deep at TE, WR, RB.  There is value there is rounds 2-5.  Not so much with DL.  Stenberger and Dawson Knox would be fine second and third round selections.

 

Well thought out post showing how tempting Hock must be.  I'm sure there is plenty of lively discussion Oliver vs Hock between cooridinators.  I am ok with Hock in the first.  But I am not sure Tillery or Simmons or other monster DTs make it past pick 20.

 

My perfect draft scenerio for Buffalo is Ed Oliver and Jaylon Ferguson with first 2 picks.

3rd pick- Stenberger or Knox

4th Miles Sanders

4th DeMarcus Lodge/Anthony Johnson

 

That way pass rush and offensive weapons are stocked, and both units improve dramatically

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Pete said:

If Ed Oliver is available, IMO the Bills run to podium.  The draft is deep at TE, WR, RB.  There is value there is rounds 2-5.  Not so much with DL.  Stenberger and Dawson Knox would be fine second and third round selections.

 

Well thought out post showing how tempting Hock must be.  I'm sure there is plenty of lively discussion Oliver vs Hock between cooridinators.  I am ok with Hock in the first.  But I am not sure Tillery or Simmons or other monster DTs make it past pick 20.

 

My perfect draft scenerio for Buffalo is Ed Oliver and Jaylon Ferguson with first 2 picks.

3rd pick- Stenberger or Knox

4th Miles Sanders

4th DeMarcus Lodge/Anthony Johnson

 

That way pass rush and offensive weapons are stocked, and both units improve dramatically

 

 

 

It is an interesting argument...where to take a TE in the draft. I like this year's defensive class so I am torn a bit. Just got to trust Beans and Co. to make the right call.

 

I think they will go with Oliver as their first pick unless they trade down.

 

When I look at NE's TE draft history past 2 decades, their most successful TEs were all taken in the 1st and 2nd rounds, with the exception of Hernandez... 4th round, some could argue that character concerns drove his draft stock down.

 

I look for NE to restock their TE cupboard this year and their timing is right with a deep class. Funny thing is I doubt that anyone will question where Belichick selects his TEs in the draft.

 

They will just assume he is smarter than they are (correct) and that the pick will work out.

 

I just hope the top talent goes before their picks come up.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Mat68 said:

I think Fant goes before Hockinson.  He is the more natural route runner, the better redzone threat, and the kind of dynamic athlete that is drafted high. 

Fant has suspect hands imo...With Hock there would be no wondering whether he was going to catch the ball or not.

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2 hours ago, Billsrhody said:

Will Hock be better than Kroft over the next 2 years? Probably not because of the transition to the league.. so if the goal is to help Allen then I don’t see this being the pick. 

Probably.  The guy's a stud and has drawn comparisons to Zach Ertz.  He'll absolutely help Allen, but the question is will a DT or DE help the defense more.

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