Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[HOUSE]

1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

Thread will be 75 pages by Week 1.

Only if Zay Jones is still on the team

 

..

 

Edited May 10, 2019 by HOUSE

[BuffaloHokie13]

53 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Doesn't work for you, I hear you (though I wasn't proposing a trade.  Vikes keep Cook and add Shady.)

 

WR and RB are different in that a lot of the WR position depends more on craft and skill.

Except....if you're wanting a guy as a burner, a speed guy...then that age-related slow-up rears its head.

I know, even if Shady is 100% he wouldn't be the best on the team. That was my point. That's true for that RB situation, not our WR situation.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I wouldn’t be putting too much faith in Beasley myself. I’m hoping Foster and some combination of Brown and Jones are the main 3.

 

Say more -- why not?

 

It's pretty clear from the contract the Bills signed with him, that they're putting the most faith in Beasley of the WR signed (neither of which, admittedly, were big contracts in the Wr scheme of things).  Longer contract, bigger signing bonus, bigger injury guarantee, some more dead money if they part ways after this season.

 

 

[GoBills808]

51 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Say more -- why not?

 

It's pretty clear from the contract the Bills signed with him, that they're putting the most faith in Beasley of the WR signed (neither of which, admittedly, were big contracts in the Wr scheme of things).  Longer contract, bigger signing bonus, bigger injury guarantee, some more dead money if they part ways after this season.

 

 

 

Because I watched him with the Cowboys and he was an afterthought once Cooper arrived. He needs lots of targets (for a 2nd/3rd option) to be effective whereas Brown and Foster don’t. I think he will be limited in usage, particularly in this offense. 

[Doc]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Because I watched him with the Cowboys and he was an afterthought once Cooper arrived. He needs lots of targets (for a 2nd/3rd option) to be effective whereas Brown and Foster don’t. I think he will be limited in usage, particularly in this offense. 

 

He had about 1 catch and 14 yards fewer per game after Cooper arrived.  Which is to be expected.

[Patrick Duffy]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

Because I watched him with the Cowboys and he was an afterthought once Cooper arrived. He needs lots of targets (for a 2nd/3rd option) to be effective whereas Brown and Foster don’t. I think he will be limited in usage, particularly in this offense. 

Disagree.I think Beasley will be a 3rd down monster for this team. I would not be surprised if he ended up having the most receptions by the end of the season at all.

[LSHMEAB]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

Because I watched him with the Cowboys and he was an afterthought once Cooper arrived. He needs lots of targets (for a 2nd/3rd option) to be effective 

Define effective. Every offense needs a singles hitter. He's a guy I expect the offense to go to in high leverage down and distance situations. He would need a lot of targets in order to put up 1000 yards. He doesn't need a lot of targets to be effective.

[GoBills808]

37 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Define effective. Every offense needs a singles hitter. He's a guy I expect the offense to go to in high leverage down and distance situations. He would need a lot of targets in order to put up 1000 yards. He doesn't need a lot of targets to be effective.

 

That would be fine w/ me. I’m just not expecting a ton from him. 

46 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

He had about 1 catch and 14 yards fewer per game after Cooper arrived.  Which is to be expected.

That’s significant even percentage wise, and not counting how Prescott stopped going to him in important spots.

45 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Disagree.I think Beasley will be a 3rd down monster for this team. I would not be surprised if he ended up having the most receptions by the end of the season at all.

Hope so on the 3rd down thing, but imo if he’s the leading receiver the offense won’t be very good.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

58 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

Because I watched him with the Cowboys and he was an afterthought once Cooper arrived. He needs lots of targets (for a 2nd/3rd option) to be effective whereas Brown and Foster don’t. I think he will be limited in usage, particularly in this offense. 

 

Hmmm.  Cooper trade was about halfway through the season, right?

 

 

Looks like 36 receptions on 47 targets for 366 yds BC (before Cooper), 29 receptions on 40 targets for 306 yds AC (after Cooper).

 

That'd be about 1 fewer target and reception per game, and about 7.6 fewer yards per game.

Looks as though his stats dipped immediately after Cooper arrived, and then rose again (perhaps as teams got Prescott to Cooper on film and adjusted)

 

Still looks kinda relevant to me.

 

I don't think he's a #1 WR, I just think he's the surest bet on this year's WR corps to be a starter and contributor.

 

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Hmmm.  Cooper trade was about halfway through the season, right?

 

 

Looks like 36 receptions on 47 targets for 366 yds BC (before Cooper), 29 receptions on 40 targets for 306 yds AC (after Cooper).

 

That'd be about 1 fewer target and reception per game, and about 7.6 fewer yards per game.

Looks as though his stats dipped immediately after Cooper arrived, and then rose again (perhaps as teams got Prescott to Cooper on film and adjusted)

 

Still looks kinda relevant to me.

 

I don't think he's a #1 WR, I just think he's the surest bet on this year's WR corps to be a starter and contributor.

 

We’ll see. I’m cautiously optimistic but I don’t see him having a big impact.

[Richard Noggin]

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

All true, but to either ? on your parade or bring in data (depending upon POV), last year with Flacco he was a 50-52% catch % guy.  Now maybe that's because Flacco wasn't throwing the most accurate passes.  Who we got under center who throws lasers?  Brown's productivity dropped after game 7, whilst LJax started after game 10.  Why?

 

Since you mention QB switch: in an attempt to bring apples-to-apples, I pulled Zay Jones numbers for the last 7 games with a QB still on the Bills throwing to him (Barkley or Allen).  I think that's fair: I excluded Allen's pre-injury games as a "rookie learning curve" and Peterman/Anderson because I don't think either of them could actually play QB last year.  Then I pulled John Brown's numbers with Flacco (again, excluding LJax as a "rookie learning curve").  All data are from pro-football reference.  The comparison is 7 games (Zay) to 9 games (Brown).

 

Boy, I can sure see who is the shoo-in starting WR:

 

I hate bringing this stuff up, I really do.  I'm speaking God's Truth when I say I like John Brown, he had a sure-fire fantastic season with Palmer in 2016, and I hope to hell he can return to that kind of form for us.  It just puzzles me why we look at Zay Jones and dis him off as "not good enough" and are all over John Brown who had similar #s, as a lock at starter.

That's a great post. Numbers can really eff up narratives. Like mine. (Sort of.)

 

It's also possible to look at your grid there and interpret that to mean Zay Jones isn't the steaming pile of dung many want him to be because McD traded up for him or some other such unfair preconception. I like them both, for the record. Two solid contributors who are NOT #1s but can both be productive cogs in an offensive machine.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

It's also possible to look at your grid there and interpret that to mean Zay Jones isn't the steaming pile of dung many want him to be because McD traded up for him or some other such unfair preconception. I like them both, for the record. Two solid contributors who are NOT #1s but can both be productive cogs in an offensive machine.

 

To be fair to folks here, Zay created his own unfair preconception by having a craptastic rookie season. 

To be fair to Zay, he spent his rookie season with QBs who were NOT admired for their passing game around here, and last year he played with a QB Carousel with a raw rookie and a couple of poor passers in several of the slots.

I agree with your bottom line take.   I have high hopes for an improved WR corps this year.

[Richard Noggin]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To be fair to folks here, Zay created his own unfair preconception by having a craptastic rookie season. 

To be fair to Zay, he spent his rookie season with QBs who were NOT admired for their passing game around here, and last year he played with a QB Carousel with a raw rookie and a couple of poor passers in several of the slots.

I agree with your bottom line take.   I have high hopes for an improved WR corps this year.

Zay WAS complete shite his rookie season. No doubt. Discombobulated is the word that comes to mind.

 

But he has shown flashes now of actual playmaking ability. Like he could be an excellent #3 or #4 option, which is what he could/should be this year. 

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

We’ll see. I’m cautiously optimistic but I don’t see him having a big impact.

Just sounds like you’re a Beasley hater.  And that’s fine.  After reading through the thread, you don’t seem to backup anything that you’ve said.  Just say, “I think he’s a bum and I don’t need a reason”

Edited May 11, 2019 by NewEra

[Doc]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

Just sounds like you’re a Beasley hater.  And that’s fine.  After reading through the thread, you don’t seem to backup anything that you’ve said.  Just say, “I think he’s a bum and I don’t need a reason”

 

The reason is that Beasley's production dropped after they added Cooper.  Which is to be expected (since they would want to throw more to Cooper seeing as how they gave up a 1st rounder for him) so I'm not sure why it's a knock against Beasley. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, Doc said:

The reason is that Beasley's production dropped after they added Cooper.  Which is to be expected (since they would want to throw more to Cooper seeing as how they gave up a 1st rounder for him) so I'm not sure why it's a knock against Beasley. 

 

The fair question would be, if Beasley's production dropped commensurate with the production Cooper added?  If so, the OP would be correct that Beasley stopped being a factor.  I looked, and the answer is "no".  Beasley's production dropped on average only about 1 reception for 7-ish yards.  Meanwhile Cooper added an average of 6 receptions for 80 ypg.

Clearly Beasley continued to be a factor, Cooper was also a factor, and as a consequence the 'Boys offensive production went up.  A lot.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Zay WAS complete shite his rookie season. No doubt. Discombobulated is the word that comes to mind.

 

But he has shown flashes now of actual playmaking ability. Like he could be an excellent #3 or #4 option, which is what he could/should be this year. 

 

Possibly better. 

 

Our offense started this past season with its own form of discombobulated and served up a complete disaster, a raw rookie, and a marginal player with nothing left in the tank on its way to settling in with flashes of brilliance but many limitations to its game (cant rush can't block...what do ya do? -Adam Ant)

I think it's telling that folks who back up their opinion on Brown, discount games with Jackson as QB, with the rationale that Jackson's passing game was too limited to allow fair e v a l of him.  But the same applies to Zay much of this past season. 

 

 

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To be fair to folks here, Zay created his own unfair preconception by having a craptastic rookie season. 
 

This is one example of how fan perception of players is skewed by rookie performance.  Brown is another.   He burst on the scene, produced multiple spectacular highlights.  Now some people Zay is horrible and Brown is a couple of seasons from the Hall of Fame.   (And I'd say Ziggy is another'  Every year some edge rusher splashes into the NFL and looks like a world beater, but very few of them remain dominant beyond a few years.)

 

I didn't fall into the Zay trap.  I was willing to see what he did in his second year before writing him off, and in his second year he showed plenty of signs of being a solid NFL receiver.  I did fall into the Brown trap; I was excited when the Bills signed him and thought they had made the move that will change the receiving corps.   Then I started thinking about it, looking at his stats, reading what people were saying here, and I realized I had drunk the Brown Kool-Aid.   

 

The Bills' receiver room is full of good stories, good potential but only one proven player - Beasley.   Brown could have big impact if the process turns him into something he has.  Jones could be an important piece of the puzzle if the process continues to help him improve.  Ditto Foster.  Williams has the tools to have significant impact, like a Boldin, if the process etc.  Sills the same.   It's a bunch of question marks, and I've stopped thinking ANY of them is going to take a major step forward.   My sense is the Bills need Beasley to be what everyone thinks he is AND the Bills need someone, ideally some two, to take serious steps forward.   

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think it's telling that folks who back up their opinion on Brown, discount games with Jackson as QB, with the rationale that Jackson's passing game was too limited to allow fair e v a l of him.  But the same applies to Zay much of this past season. 

 

Actually, I view these facts about the two of them the opposite way.  I think the fact that they had poor production when the less able QBs were on the field as a comment on the RECEIVERS.  I think it speaks to their limitations.   AJ Green didn't stop catching pass when McCarron replaced Dalton in 2015.   His production went down, but that was because McCarron was throwing less than Dalton.  

 

Good players are good players, and you can see it in them  even when the players around them aren't so hot.  Sometimes you have to look a little harder, like at Shady when no one is blocking for him, but they're still good and you still see what makes them good.  

 

So I'd say that both Zay and Brown are the guys their ENTIRE output has shown them to be, which is receivers that have, so far, failed to rise to the expectations that coaches and fans had for them.  As be the two, Zay gets a bit more of a pass, because he's only been at it for two seasons.  If by now Brown has emerged as a serious threat, a legitimate number one, it's relatively unlikely that it will happen in the future.  

[Shaw66]

Looks like you tried to respond to your own post and it turned into an edit.   Here's what you said:

 

Quote

It's my opinion that Beane (and hopefully this means Daboll) sees our offense ideally shaking out similar to the Panthers and the Patriots some years, with 3-5 guys between 500-800 yds receiving and no clear #1.  That would be fine.   The identification of those 5 as (alpha order) Beasley, Brown, Foster, Jones, and (a TE or another WR) is likely correct, barring injury or acquisition.

If, in contrast, the Bills signed Brown believing he would come in and be a true #1 WR unless {disaster} because he's the highest paid guy we got, that's Some Scary Sh** indicative of continued WR e v a l problems.  Because he's never been a #1 WR, not even in his best two seasons, and he's only paid highly relative to the Bills payroll, not to what top WR actually pull down in this league.

 

I think you are exactly right about this.  Exactly.   I think your first paragraph describes what the Bills are trying to do with the receivers.  And, to repeat what I've said dozens of times in the past six months, they are mimicking the Patriots.  

 

The Bills are all about scheme.  That's certainly how the defense plays.  And that's what they seem to be doing on the offense.   They are going to play receiver by committee, and receivers are going to succeed, if they do, because the scheme gets them open and the scheme allows Allen to know when and where they will get open.   The beauty of playing a scheme like that is that you can play it without star receivers, if the receivers are fundamentally sound and do their jobs (and if the QB masters the concepts and makes the throws).   Any of these guys we're talking about - Brown, Foster, Jones, and I think Williams for sure and Sills, can be nicely productive in a good scheme.   Frankly, that's exactly what we saw from Foster last season, and from Zay perhaps to a lesser extent.   Against certain defensive sets, with certain play calls, Foster had a real advantage, Allen knew it and found him.  I think that describes Zay's better games, as well.  

 

The additional beauty of playing a scheme like that you can always have a good receiving corps, because you don't need star receivers to make it work.  Then you can hunt in free agency and the draft for the guy with better talent who is not a prima donna, plug him into the system, and BINGO!, you have something special.   The Patriots keep trying to do that.  They had some success plugging Moss into the system, no success with Chad Johnson or Gordon.  But they tried.   They had big success with Gronk - a special talent who willingly adapted to the system.   And Edelman, who in some ways is a limited receiver with a few exceptional skills that make him really tough in the system.   

 

I keep coming back to what McBeane say - this is a process that takes years, and they aren't done.  They're building and building and they expect the team to continue to get better.  I think if you get them to talk completely frankly about it, they'd tell you that this team is headed in the right direction but hasn't learned enough yet and doesn't have enough talent yet.   

[Alphadawg7]

On 5/9/2019 at 11:14 AM, MrEpsYtown said:

Game 15 vs NE (Cheats win 24-12) Zay played in 61/61 snaps (100%). He had 5 catches for 67 yards on 9 targets and had 1 touchdown. All of his catches came in the fourth quarter with the score 24-6. His first catch came with 4:37 left in the 4th quarter and the Patriots up 24-6. On the next offensive possession with the Pats up 24-6 and 3 minutes left, Zay had 5 more catches and his touchdown with 1:17 left in the game, making it 24-12.

 

Thoughts?

 

Great work MrEps.  Not gonna quote the whole post, so much info in there and it’s a great breakdown.  I quoted this one because someone kept insisting NE was a good game for Zay while I kept insisting he was terrible if you watched the game.  

 

This post here illustrates why a stat box total is fools gold for conclusive and accurate information.  While Zays stat box looked like it was a good game, the actual context of the stats and game situation shows why it was really not a good game and he got some stats (all of his stats) when game was out of reach and the defensive pressure changed from shutting each play down to clock management and getting as much time off the clock.

 

On a good note for Zay, your analysis did show some other nice plays not easily identified by average or unimpressive stat box totals.  Like his TD in the Houston game which was a pretty big play and a great play by him.  That being said, it was also a great throw by Peterman, and Peterman still beyond sucks.  So a handful of good plays doesn’t erase all the concerns, but it is nice to see where Zay has had some good moments even when the stat box total may not have made it obvious.

 

In the end, Bills will be a better team if our WRs step up.  So not rooting against the kid, really hope he erases the concerns and excels this year.  I remain skeptical he can hold off the competition and will slip on depth chart a little for that.  That’s my only reason I think Beane trades him, to get value before a lesser role diminishes his trade value.

 

One thing people are grossly over looking on the Zay defense.  The 2020 WR draft is looking monstrous.  So it’s one more reason Beane may not want to hold onto a WR he doesn’t feel will be a long term player here and instead trade him for a draft asset that gives him more ammo to move around the draft to get one of these beasts coming out next year to pair with Allen the next 10 years.

 

That being said, it still is predicated by the other WRs stepping up like Duke, Sills, McKenzie, etc.  If they don’t, Zay will likely be safe for obvious reasons.

[Doc]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

The fair question would be, if Beasley's production dropped commensurate with the production Cooper added?  If so, the OP would be correct that Beasley stopped being a factor.  I looked, and the answer is "no".  Beasley's production dropped on average only about 1 reception for 7-ish yards.  Meanwhile Cooper added an average of 6 receptions for 80 ypg.

Clearly Beasley continued to be a factor, Cooper was also a factor, and as a consequence the 'Boys offensive production went up.  A lot.

 

It was actually 1 fewer catch and 14 fewer yards.  Cooper played the last 9 games with them.  But that's not a major change.  And he'll be the outlet receiver.

 

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Actually, I view these facts about the two of them the opposite way.  I think the fact that they had poor production when the less able QBs were on the field as a comment on the RECEIVERS.  I think it speaks to their limitations.   AJ Green didn't stop catching pass when McCarron replaced Dalton in 2015.   His production went down, but that was because McCarron was throwing less than Dalton.  

 

Good players are good players, and you can see it in them  even when the players around them aren't so hot.  Sometimes you have to look a little harder, like at Shady when no one is blocking for him, but they're still good and you still see what makes them good.  

 

So I'd say that both Zay and Brown are the guys their ENTIRE output has shown them to be, which is receivers that have, so far, failed to rise to the expectations that coaches and fans had for them.  As be the two, Zay gets a bit more of a pass, because he's only been at it for two seasons.  If by now Brown has emerged as a serious threat, a legitimate number one, it's relatively unlikely that it will happen in the future.  

 

AJ Green's production dropped from 84 yards/game with Dalton to 65 with McCarron.  The QB does matter.

 

And again, Brown's role is to use his speed to get CBs and Ss away from the LOS.

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

It was actually 1 fewer catch and 14 fewer yards.  Cooper played the last 9 games with them.  But that's not a major change.  And he'll be the outlet receiver.

 

 

AJ Green's production dropped from 84 yards/game with Dalton to 65 with McCarron.  The QB does matter.

 

And again, Brown's role is to use his speed to get CBs and Ss away from the LOS.

Right, and Dalton threw more than AJ.  

 

And FOSTER's role can be to get CBs and Ss away from the line of scrimmage.  I'm not dissing Brown, but everything points to him being, at most, a piece of a larger puzzle.  He isn't likely to be the answer at #1.  

[ColoradoBills]

11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

In the end, Bills will be a better team if our WRs step up.  So not rooting against the kid, really hope he erases the concerns and excels this year.  I remain skeptical he can hold off the competition and will slip on depth chart a little for that.  That’s my only reason I think Beane trades him, to get value before a lesser role diminishes his trade value.

 

One thing people are grossly over looking on the Zay defense.  The 2020 WR draft is looking monstrous.  So it’s one more reason Beane may not want to hold onto a WR he doesn’t feel will be a long term player here and instead trade him for a draft asset that gives him more ammo to move around the draft to get one of these beasts coming out next year to pair with Allen the next 10 years.

 

That being said, it still is predicated by the other WRs stepping up like Duke, Sills, McKenzie, etc.  If they don’t, Zay will likely be safe for obvious reasons.

 

So it seems to me that before Beane would trade Zay he would have to evaluate the play of the lower tier WRs.

When do you think that window in time would be?

 

Another question would be what "trade value" would you put on him?

Trading a WR at the dawn of a new season (unless a team had a horrible summer injury wise) is not going to get the value you may think.

In a perfect world a team would want that WR to spend the summer working with their offense.

If there was a couple of teams scrambling for a WR at the end of preseason wouldn't there also be teams looking to get value for WRs

that do not fit their long term plans too? 

 

I guess the point I'm making is that Zay Jones should be evaluated by Beane and McDermott on what he brings to the team this year and

the idea of dealing him off in some "strategic move" probably is a secondary consideration at best.

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I think it's telling that folks who back up their opinion on Brown, discount games with Jackson as QB, with the rationale that Jackson's passing game was too limited to allow fair e v a l of him.  But the same applies to Zay much of this past season. 

People discount the Lamar stats because Lamar never attempted more than 25 passes in a game, and never completed more than 14. Pretty standard to assume that lower attempts would lower production. We're talking about a QB that had 170 pass attempts and 147 rush attempts. The entire format of their offense changed.

[Doc]

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Right, and Dalton threw more than AJ.  

 

And FOSTER's role can be to get CBs and Ss away from the line of scrimmage.  I'm not dissing Brown, but everything points to him being, at most, a piece of a larger puzzle.  He isn't likely to be the answer at #1.  

 

I see both Foster and Brown taking CBs and Ss away from the LOS.  And yes, he's a piece of the puzzle.  I don't think anyone is saying he's an AB, OBJ, Hopkins or Jones.

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

I see both Foster and Brown taking CBs and Ss away from the LOS.  And yes, he's a piece of the puzzle.  I don't think anyone is saying he's an AB, OBJ, Hopkins or Jones.

I think the point is exactly that he isn't AB, OBJ, Hopkins or Jones.   If he isn't any of those, he isn't a guaranteed starter.  If he isn't a legit number one, he's in competition with every other receiver to be the number two, and some of those guys are better route runners and some of them have better hands.   That's EXACTLY the point.   

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

And FOSTER's role can be to get CBs and Ss away from the line of scrimmage.  I'm not dissing Brown, but everything points to him being, at most, a piece of a larger puzzle.  He isn't likely to be the answer at #1.  

 

There's nothing wrong with Foster and Brown offering the same skill set. It's a very important skill set and there's no such thing as too much speed on the outside. Personally I am hoping they just build a vertical offense. Obviously Allen needs to get better at choosing his shots, the check down to the RB or TE or Beasley will sometimes be the better choice. But I don't want to see us try to build a dink and dunk offense. I want our receivers 15+ yards down the field more often than not. Why not play around what Allen does well?

 

I don't expect us to have a true #1 this year but I think Brown and Foster will essentially double as our #1.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

This post here illustrates why a stat box total is fools gold for conclusive and accurate information.  While Zays stat box looked like it was a good game, the actual context of the stats and game situation shows why it was really not a good game and he got some stats (all of his stats) when game was out of reach and the defensive pressure changed from shutting each play down to clock management and getting as much time off the clock.

 

Well enough, but here's the question: when looking at comparable non-star WR around the league, does one do a similar "deep dive" to exclude their "good games"?

 

I take the point that stats alone can mislead one as to a player's impact, but it seems to me dissecting his play minutely without context can be equally misleading in a different way.

 

As a broad brush, if a game is a blowout, it means the play of the whole team sucks, the OL sucks, the QB has no time to throw and/or sucks, none of the WR may be getting much in the way of chances.  Likewise if we're blowing them out, everyone's stats are "padded".  Over a season, it seems to me, both those situations pretty much even out for all players.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Actually, I view these facts about the two of them the opposite way.  I think the fact that they had poor production when the less able QBs were on the field as a comment on the RECEIVERS.  I think it speaks to their limitations.   AJ Green didn't stop catching pass when McCarron replaced Dalton in 2015.   His production went down, but that was because McCarron was throwing less than Dalton.

 

Interesting example.  I've watched all McCarron's games when Dalton went down and I have two comments:

1) it's clear the Bills picked up McCarron because of what they saw there.  He had protection, and he was able to execute the Bengal's offense capably for the most part.

He missed some throws Dalton would have taken and threw more uncatchable balls because of being slow with the read, but that comes with time.  He looked as though he could play.  The play of two raw rookies (even rookies with far higher ceiling) like Jackson and Allen is not comparable.  Especially Jackson.  So I got to disagree with your take.

2) AJ Green was, maybe still is, a true star-of-stars at WR.  He has been the making of the not-overly-accurate Dalton since they were both drafted.  With a good QB all his career, he'd be walking into Canton.  What AJ Green can accomplish with a lesser QB, and what ordinary mortal decent NFL WR can accomplish with a lesser QB, are probably not comparable.

So I got to disagree with your take there too.

 

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Good players are good players, and you can see it in them  even when the players around them aren't so hot.  Sometimes you have to look a little harder, like at Shady when no one is blocking for him, but they're still good and you still see what makes them good.  

 

So I'd say that both Zay and Brown are the guys their ENTIRE output has shown them to be, which is receivers that have, so far, failed to rise to the expectations that coaches and fans had for them.  As be the two, Zay gets a bit more of a pass, because he's only been at it for two seasons.  If by now Brown has emerged as a serious threat, a legitimate number one, it's relatively unlikely that it will happen in the future.  

 

On the other hand, this is a fair take - neither of these guys are Larry Fitzgerald or AJ Green, true #1s who can adjust and raise their game to compensate for a limited QB.

 

But there's still the point that if the ball isn't being thrown, or not thrown where a human can catch it, or not thrown to the correct route dictated by the coverage the WR sees, no WR can compensate.  So less able QB still hinder any WR's ability to produce.

[Doc]

29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the point is exactly that he isn't AB, OBJ, Hopkins or Jones.   If he isn't any of those, he isn't a guaranteed starter.  If he isn't a legit number one, he's in competition with every other receiver to be the number two, and some of those guys are better route runners and some of them have better hands.   That's EXACTLY the point.   

 

We'll agree to disagree.  This has little to do with him not being those guys and more about him being the highest-paid and most accomplished WR currently on the roster.

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

There's nothing wrong with Foster and Brown offering the same skill set. It's a very important skill set and there's no such thing as too much speed on the outside. Personally I am hoping they just build a vertical offense. Obviously Allen needs to get better at choosing his shots, the check down to the RB or TE or Beasley will sometimes be the better choice. But I don't want to see us try to build a dink and dunk offense. I want our receivers 15+ yards down the field more often than not. Why not play around what Allen does well?

 

I don't expect us to have a true #1 this year but I think Brown and Foster will essentially double as our #1.

 

I agree with the whole premise.  Being that Foster had limited college play (35 receptions in 4 years) and only 27 last year why can't

they use Brown and Foster "together" sharing 1 WR spot to start the season.

They could each spell each other while they push down field on a large number of plays throughout the game.

 

So in my mind it's OK for Foster to spell Brown and also line up opposite Brown SOMETIMES but this way you break in Foster

slowly until he gains more experience which he lacks right now.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

People discount the Lamar stats because Lamar never attempted more than 25 passes in a game, and never completed more than 14. Pretty standard to assume that lower attempts would lower production. We're talking about a QB that had 170 pass attempts and 147 rush attempts. The entire format of their offense changed.

 

A fair point, but to it: Josh Allen had 7 of 12 games where he attempted 26 or fewer passes - 4 of 'em less than 20 attempts. 

He never completed more than 20 passes per game (only once that high).  He had 6 games where he completed 15 or less.

He had 320 pass attempts, and 89 rushing attempts - between 1/4 and 1/3.

So that's not quite LJax territory, but you can see it from there.  That would also kind of impact what a WR can do, no?

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

We'll agree to disagree.  This has little to do with him not being those guys and more about him being the highest-paid and most accomplished WR currently on the roster.

 

So, when McDermott says something like "everything is earned, nothing is given", you feel he's not talking about earning playing time by competition?

He's lying through his teeth whilst actually writing the depth chart by contract size?

 

Quality FA always get overpaid.  At this point, we have to pay a premium to get offensive skill players to sign here, 'cuz unproven QB and offense.

I choose to believe McDermott means what he says and says what he means about earning it.  Re accomplished, I think it's fair to go back 2 years, maybe 3,

It's chill, we can disagree.

[LSHMEAB]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

A fair point, but to it: Josh Allen had 7 of 12 games where he attempted 26 or fewer passes - 4 of 'em less than 20 attempts. 

He never completed more than 20 passes per game (only once that high).  He had 6 games where he completed 15 or less.

He had 320 pass attempts, and 89 rushing attempts - between 1/4 and 1/3.

So that's not quite LJax territory, but you can see it from there.  That would also kind of impact what a WR can do, no?

 

 

That seems like a taboo subject.

 

My eyeballs tell me that Allen has far more potential as a passer, but I really don't get the LJAX hate. He's a guy with a unique skill set. Not a prototypical NFL QB so he's going to need a distinct gameplan. Roman is probably a great get for them. I think he'll be far more effective than people on this board seem to think.

 

And just like Mayfield, it has NOTHING to do with Josh.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...somebody here did some great analytical research into breking down Zay's stats, which I believed showed some garbage time enhancements...Cliff Notes Version IMO says it is a brand new year and put up or pack.....

[Doc]

41 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

So, when McDermott says something like "everything is earned, nothing is given", you feel he's not talking about earning playing time by competition?

He's lying through his teeth whilst actually writing the depth chart by contract size?

 

Quality FA always get overpaid.  At this point, we have to pay a premium to get offensive skill players to sign here, 'cuz unproven QB and offense.

I choose to believe McDermott means what he says and says what he means about earning it.  Re accomplished, I think it's fair to go back 2 years, maybe 3,

It's chill, we can disagree.

 

Yeah I think McD doesn't always tell the truth.  Like with his process.  He's brought in players that don't fit it.  Or maybe that's Beane's doing?

 

In any case, I don't see Zay beating-out either Brown, Beasley or Foster for one of the three starting spots, so in this instance he could be telling the truth.  And I think that if he were happy with Zay, he'd only have signed Beasley. 

Edited May 11, 2019 by Doc

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, Doc said:

Yeah I think McD doesn't always tell the truth.  Like with his process.  He's brought in players that don't fit it.

 

I think when we see players who don't fit it, they don't fit our understanding but McDermott sees something else.  But anyway.  We agree to disagree, you think the paycheck indicates rank on the depth chart and playing time, I think the paycheck won't help Brown if he doesn't haul in more balls than the others.  He'll be on the team, sure, but not necessarily start.

 

13 minutes ago, Doc said:

But in this case, I don't see Zay beating-out either Brown, Beasley or Foster for one of the three starting spots, so in this instance he could be telling the truth.  And I think that if he were happy with Zay, he'd only have signed Beasley. 

 

We disagree there too.  Foster was a very limited player last year.  Not a good blocker, limited route tree.  Zay is far more rounded as a player.  Foster made some great plays - but he also missed a number of deep balls because he's still struggling to track the ball and he slows for a few steps when he looks back to find it.  Brown never does that, he runs a great deep ball route, and he runs a full route tree.  If Brown's still got his speed, it's Foster who's gonna be challenged IMO.

On the "happy with Zay...only signed Beasley..." - with all grace and kindness, You're Nuts.  We badly badly needed depth and competition in our WR room.   There will be injuries, it's inevitable.  I wish we'd signed more guys who've shown they can play.  Daboll probably does too.

[Doc]

If Brown drops everything thrown to him, or refuses to practice, or can't learnt the playbook, yeah, he likely sits.  But I don't envision him suddenly doing that.

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well enough, but here's the question: when looking at comparable non-star WR around the league, does one do a similar "deep dive" to exclude their "good games"?

 

I take the point that stats alone can mislead one as to a player's impact, but it seems to me dissecting his play minutely without context can be equally misleading in a different way.

 

As a broad brush, if a game is a blowout, it means the play of the whole team sucks, the OL sucks, the QB has no time to throw and/or sucks, none of the WR may be getting much in the way of chances.  Likewise if we're blowing them out, everyone's stats are "padded".  Over a season, it seems to me, both those situations pretty much even out for all players.

 

This is true, nothing wrong with what you said.  

 

However, when Zay ONLY shows up in these end game moments that don’t matter or only against the weaker opposition, it’s concerning.  While all WRs benefit from these same situations, they also contribute more overall throughout the season, in tougher/closer games, in important moments, etc. Especially when you see an UDFA throw down three 100 yard games in his last 7 and be a big part of wins or close losses while Zay has really done none of that or very little over 2 years as a starter.  

 

Zay has had less than 40 yards in over 70% of his career games.  He doesn’t have the resume to get the benefit of the doubt.  He has also hurt us badly in multiple games this year and last year that directly contributed to our loss because he didn’t make the play when he needed to.

 

So when we see him make plays when the game is all but decided and fail to often when we really needed him to make the play, it’s concerning.  

 

At the end of the day, Zay hasn’t been a guy we can count on.  He has to change that and show he can be or he won’t be here.  

Edited May 11, 2019 by Alphadawg7