Buffalo Sabres & NHL 2018-19: Sabres picking 7th overall (6/21/19). Ralph Krueger hire as new head coach!

[K-9]

Haven’t looked at the underlying analytics in a while (I mean why bother any more), but I’d predict we are one of the worst D zone teams in the league. We are beyond bad for frequent sustained periods. 

[GG]

Is there a stat for teams giving up most goals in the last 90 seconds of a period?

[plenzmd1]

Two Questions

 

1) who is the bigger homer.Dunleavy or Murph?

 

2) Sabres 2nd worst team in the NHL?

 

now 3

 

3) is there another team that has ever prevented a goal like 29 just did?

 

Edited March 5, 2019 by plenzmd1

[K-9]

In addition to not being very skilled, we are snakebit. Not a good combination.

[plenzmd1]

okay, maybe these two teams 1A and! !B worst teams

nother question

 

Skinny contract????

[K-9]

Love watching McJesus and the things he does on the ice, but I enjoyed it when he clanged it of the iron with an open net. 

 

I know we needed the man on the ice, but somebody needed to clock Draisaitl after he took Jack out at mid ice to prevent him being sent in alone. Soft as charmin, this group.

[Jay_Fixit]

Oilers babbaayyy!!! 

[K-9]

Need 14 out of the remaining 32 points to reach that “magical” twenty point improvement over last season or a .438 clip. Problem is, we are playing at a .390 clip since November 27th, a whopping .012 improvement over last year’s debacle. I think they will be hardpresed to get there based on that 95 day sample since the streak ended. 

[BringBackFergy]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Need 14 out of the remaining 32 points to reach that “magical” twenty point improvement over last season or a .438 clip. Problem is, we are playing at a .390 clip since November 27th, a whopping .012 improvement over last year’s debacle. I think they will be hardpresed to get there based on that 95 day sample since the streak ended. 

It’s all a head game now (and luck) and we are sorely lacking confidence. It is done 

[BillsFan4]

 

 

[Nextmanup]

5 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

Two Questions

 

1) who is the bigger homer.Dunleavy or Murph?

 

2) Sabres 2nd worst team in the NHL?

 

now 3

 

3) is there another team that has ever prevented a goal like 29 just did?

 

Well, they are both paid by the team they broadcast, so there's that.

 

No, we are better than the 2nd worst in the NHL.  I put us somewhere around 6th from the bottom, but that's debatable! 

 

I have never seen a player make a save on his own shot like Pommer did tonight.  A fitting play for this team particularly in this season.

 

As this season winds down, our "win 1 in 3" usual sort of pace is going to deteriorate beyond that.  At some point this group of losers are going to straight up quit.  

 

As much as I think Housley will be the HC for Game 1 of next season, there is still hope that this thing can get ugly enough to see him terminated at the end of the season.

 

 

 

 

[Chandler#81]

9 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

I sure hope for a better showing tonight than that 7-2 disaster the last time they played the Oilers. 

 

Adding insult to injury, Lucic even scored 2 goals in that game. He only had 2 goals the entire 2018 calendar year.  That 2 goal night against Buffalo accounts for something like 40% of his goals in the last 70+ games.  Kassian scored 2 as well. At the time he had gone 40+ games without a goal. Longest drought of his career. 

 

 

I cant take another brutal loss to Edmonton. lol 

 

Yes, yes you can.. I promise to return to this punishment thread if the Sabres win another game this season.

[plenzmd1]

I know it’s piling in now , but still

 

https://www.diebytheblade.com/platform/amp/2019/3/4/18249441/concerns-about-the-buffalo-sabres-head-coach-continue-to-pile-up-phil-housley?utm_campaign=cmdedominicis&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

Quote

The defense was supposed to be a specialty of this coach and that area of their game continues to struggle. Believe it or not, they’re actually giving up higher expected goals against rate this season at 2.03 per game, compared to 1.93 last season. A supposedly improved defensive team is giving up better chances per game to their opponent than the worst team in the league last season.

 

Edited March 5, 2019 by plenzmd1

[K-9]

37 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

I know it’s piling in now , but still

 

https://www.diebytheblade.com/platform/amp/2019/3/4/18249441/concerns-about-the-buffalo-sabres-head-coach-continue-to-pile-up-phil-housley?utm_campaign=cmdedominicis&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

 

I don’t believe it. This is a team clearly on the rise. Or so I’ve been led to believe. 

 

Seriously though, that’s quite the indictment. On management, on coaches, on players. 

[apuszczalowski]

15 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

That's a great question!  It doesn't help that Pegula is clueless as a sports owner and put the wrong people in place to begin this rebuild.  We are now onto the Rebuild Phase II, which explains why we are still where we're at. 

 

Botterill then completely botched the ROR trade which will set the team back 2 or 3 years IMO.  He gave away maybe the best player on the team (at the moment) and the true 2C this team desperately needs in exchange for nothing.  That sort of mistake is not easily recovered from. 

 

So as long as it has been, we are still in the early stages.

 

 

 

 

But O'Rielly didnt like losing and was sad, so he had to go. Couldnt have that mopey attitude in the lockerroom affecting the good vibes from the rest of the roster who had no issues throwing away seasons to get better draft positioning.....

[Nextmanup]

3 hours ago, apuszczalowski said:

But O'Rielly didnt like losing and was sad, so he had to go. Couldnt have that mopey attitude in the lockerroom affecting the good vibes from the rest of the roster who had no issues throwing away seasons to get better draft positioning.....

ROR is a hell of a good 2-way hockey player and he very quickly took in the atmosphere in Buffalo and realized he wanted nothing to do with it.  He then launched a PR campaign mostly through post-game PCs where he all but said "TRADE ME."

 

The night when he went so far as to say he realized he lost his passion for the game had me laughing out loud at the time, as it was so obvious what he was doing.  He was daring Botterill NOT to trade him.

 

However, Botterill being the rookie that he is played the whole thing wrong.  The team had all the leverage, not ROR.  They needed to either find a package that totally fleeced the other team for ROR, or RETAIN HIM and find a way to get it through to him that he was here to stay so he better cheer up.

 

He signed a 7 year K extension with the Sabres.  Eventually his play would have improved as the $$$ these guys make is tied to performance, ultimately.   He couldn't conduct his scored earth policy long term IMO.

 

Instead, we moved him after his 3rd year for a bunch of pieces, all of which combined add up to nothing.

 

We gave up Zadorov, Grigorenko, JT Compher, and the 31st pick in the 2015 draft to get ROR in the first place.

 

That's a lot of assets going out the door ultimately in exchanged for nothing.

 

This is why bad franchises are bad to begin with, and why they tend to stay that way.

 

It's call mismanagement.

 

It's also why the best franchises in any sport tend to stay near the top long term, despite not having top draft picks.  They avoid making these sorts of debilitating bonehead moves.

 

 

 

[Nextmanup]

7 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

I know it’s piling in now , but still

 

https://www.diebytheblade.com/platform/amp/2019/3/4/18249441/concerns-about-the-buffalo-sabres-head-coach-continue-to-pile-up-phil-housley?utm_campaign=cmdedominicis&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

 

Yeah but the type of defense Housley is trying to instill is a very aggressive, pinching, attacking defense where they move into the play in the O zone as much as possible.

 

It's not a stay at home keep the puck out of your own net type of defense.

 

We just added another big time minus player to the roster in Montour.  He was near the bottom of the league in +/- in Anaheim.  He'll fit in well around here, particularly with Risto.  The 2 of them are offensively-oriented D men who are totally defensive liabilities.

 

 

[Jauronimo]

17 hours ago, GG said:

Is there a stat for teams giving up most goals in the last 90 seconds of a period?

Yes, Buffalo is a whopping .875  in the Pants Shitting Rating during the last 90 seconds in the period.  Also, a .924 in the first 90 seconds of a period.  But most remarkably Buffalo is a .989 in the Pants Shitting Rating in the 180 seconds after allowing a goal or scoring a goal.   

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

48 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Yes, Buffalo is a whopping .875  in the Pants Shitting Rating during the last 90 seconds in the period.  Also, a .924 in the first 90 seconds of a period.  But most remarkably Buffalo is a .989 in the Pants Shitting Rating in the 180 seconds after allowing a goal or scoring a goal.   

I'm just glad to see that the word shitting makes it past the language filter.

[K-9]

9 minutes ago, The Real Buffalo Joe said:

I'm just glad to see that the word shitting makes it past the language filter.

@Jauronimo has a special exemption. 

[plenzmd1]

So, just listening to Travis Yost on GR. Must say, @JohnC may have some points. He puts a huge blame on the goalie”s for the last two months. Says 3 more wins minimum if goalies play to league average save percentage  at 5-5(  adjusted for shot location, danger etc )

 

he went on to say say he defends Housley by saying Roster is not playoff ready. However, in his words “ not an A effort” on either side. 

 

 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

So, just listening to Travis Yost on GR. Must say, @JohnC may have some points. He puts a huge blame on the goalie”s for the last two months. Says 3 more wins minimum if goalies play to league average save percentage  at 5-5(  adjusted for shot location, danger etc )

 

he went on to say say he defends Housley by saying Roster is not playoff ready. However, in his words “ not an A effort” on either side. 

 

 

There are talent issues that are obvious, at least to me. With the exception of the very elite teams parity is prevalent. When you don't have a margin for error and repeatedly make mistakes that are converted you are going to lose. Yesterday's game against the Oilers is an example of that. The Sabres outplayed the Oilers and had more scoring chances. Ullmark let in a couple of soft goals and our defenders, not just the defensemen, cluelessly lost sight of the people they were supposed to cover. What's the solution? The players who are free lancers and are not conscientious about upholding their defensive responsibilities should be replaced. 

 

Risto is a physically imposing defenseman. He is capable of crunching the opposition. But too often he plays like a dope. Hitting someone without a purpose to the detriment of one's defensive responsibility is not acceptable. When you are a first pairing defenseman you are playing against the opposition's best goal scorers who can convert your mistakes into goals. And that happens too often.  

 

The difference between winning games during the streak and losing these one goal games is the caliber of the goal tending. Early on the goalies were making the critical stops, not so much now. That's one of the primary factors of this slide.

 

I have said for a long time and I will continue to believe it that the issue/problem isn't the coach. There needs to be added talent and there needs to be players brought in who play responsibly, especially in their own end.

 

 The analysis by Travis Yost that you heard on WGR is the same analysis that almost all analysts make about this team regarding its talent pool. I don't believe that this team is far away from being a good team. I strongly believe that changing the coaching staff will set this franchise back. There needs to be added more talent and an excising of the players who don't seem to be capable of playing intelligent hockey.  

 

 

[plenzmd1]

@JohnC would love to get your take on why coaching changes hurt in the NHL. 

 

and , looks like Skinner gunna at least hit FA, and I assume he wants out of this mess as well. 

 

So, that should make for a fun summer 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

@JohnC would love to get your take on why coaching changes hurt in the NHL. 

 

and , looks like Skinner gunna at least hit FA, and I assume he wants out of this mess as well. 

 

So, that should make for a fun summer 

I'm not against changing coaches per se. There is a time and place for it. This organization has churned through coaches and GMs and churned through systems. That doesn't deal with the heart of this team's problem. The problem revolves around the talent level. That issue is steadily being addressed but it is going to take a little more time.

 

There is nothing surprising about Skinner hitting free agency. Why wouldn't he do so if it would increase his leverage with the Sabres or allow him to seek higher offers somewhere else? That's the nature of the business.  What do you think that Panerin or Bobrovsky at Columbus are doing? Skinner is going to act in his own interest $$$$ just as the Sabres will act in their own interest when it comes to player decisions. Altruism is not a factor while self-interest is. 

 

Let me turn around and ask you if you are going to advocate for firing McCermott and Beane because their w/l record isn't stellar during their short tenure? If you do advocate for a change it would be a disastrous decision and set the franchise back. That football regime needs time just as the hockey regime needs time. 

[plenzmd1]

I think football is a completely different animal. Different schemes require different players, terminology changes, route concepts change, etc...lots of things change and I would think about 10X more complex than hockey. Very rarely do you see a coaching change mid-season make a difference in football, while it happens all the time in hockey. I don't think "continuity" behind the bench means jack squat..I do agree a bit on GMs..a bit, and would give JBOTTS  one more year with a new coach. I mean look at Carolina and the Isles just as an example..new GM and coaches in each place..they did not need 3 years to have an impact, it was immediate. 

 

I heard someone the other day on GR speculate the Islanders are playing so well and look like they are always outworking the other team cause Trotz "system" is easy, the players play free cause they know exactly where to be and whats expected etc. And he is doing it with supposed lesser talent, as is Julien.

 

Now if he could do that in 20 games, why cany Housley get that done in 150 games? If his system is that complicated it takes 3 years to teach, we gots an issue!!!

 

I asked the other day and I am truly stumped if there has been a coach in any of the 4 major sports that had as poor a record as Housley has( tank teams excluded) and went on to success with that team ...thus proving continuity has its rewards. I can't think of any..even in the NFL. I can certainly point to the flip side of that, where coaches were retained in the name of continuity, and teams instantly got better with a new coach.

 

My point is I think 'continuity" is an old adage we grew up with that has somehow maintained its relevancy even though it is no longer applicable. People look at winning teams and say "hey look..the coach has been there a while, that's why they are winning.  I say "hey look, we have a coach who wins, let's keep him around"

 

Kinda like hits in hockey...remember when we thought more hits was a good thing???

[BillsFan4]

6 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

@JohnC would love to get your take on why coaching changes hurt in the NHL. 

 

and , looks like Skinner gunna at least hit FA, and I assume he wants out of this mess as well. 

 

So, that should make for a fun summer 

I don’t think anything has changed on the Skinner front. At least not if you go by what’s being reported.

 

Skinner just said himself the other day that this losing streak has no effect on him still wanting to be here. He said it doesn’t even factor into his decision. That he still wants to be here long term and he thinks he’s a piece of the puzzle here. 

 

Botterill also just addressed the Skinner situation in that interview on WGR550 the other day. He said they are still working towards a deal but that both sides really want to get it done. 

 

 

I think Botterill could have him signed right now if he were willing to give him something similar to the Stone deal ($9.5M per year). I think he is doing his best to get the Sabres a better deal than that.

 

I heard a rumor (not sure how true it is) that Botterill is around $8M per year (or slightly less) and Skinner is around $9M per year (and likely wants a full no movement clause).

 

Honestly, I am reluctant to sign Skinner for $9+M per year, so I’d that rumor is true I’m ok with Botts slow playing it if it gets buffalo a better deal. And there’s no way I give him a full no move without a discount on his AAV. If Skinner playing close to home is (reportedly) a big factor to him, then it seems like a fair trade to me. He gets his full no move clause and Buffalo gets a slight discount on AAV.

No chance I do $9+M and a full NMC. But that’s just me. 

 

 

I still think a deal gets done though. I think it’s likely just a matter of the price and who caves more. 

 

 

[BillsFan4]

“Sabres GM shares vision for future, success”

 ‘Botterill discusses Dahlin's development, Skinner's status, coach's performance in talk with NHL.com’

 

https://www.nhl.com/news/sabres-general-manager-jason-botterill-shares-vision/c-305495260

 

 

Quote

On Skinner's status:

"Look, it's been a situation where we've been very honest with it. We didn't want to do a play-by-play of the negotiations in the media. All that I can tell you is, it's been a very good fit, I think, for both sides. Myself and his agents, our main focus is to find a deal, because that's what both parties are looking for, and hopefully we can find a resolution here."

 

 

 

Speaking of Skinner... just came across this interview with botterill on NHL.com posted today. 

 

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

If they don't sign Skinner, this team is in real trouble. 

 

Even if they are able to bring him back, they are already looking.for additional scoring help through free agency or a trade. I just don't see this roster changing all that much between now and next year. 

 

Unless they love Risto, I fear this team is in for another let down year waiting for kids to grow into their shoes. 

 

And this is IF they are able to bring him back.

[plenzmd1]

Top O the morning to all us Sabre fans

 

 

[shrader]

3 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

Top O the morning to all us Sabre fans

 

 

 

Color me unimpressed.  35 players in the NHL are currently at or above a point per game pace (I'll ignore the three guys who have played <5 games).  Last year only 24 hit that mark (again, ignoring those who barely played).  If each of the players in the top 10 in scoring averages 1 point per game the rest of the season, those top ten will have on average 7 more points than last year's top ten.  I'd venture a guess that a lot of players already have a career season going as of today.  Right off the top, I know Kucherov does.  And several more will by the end of the season.

 

Congratulations O'Reilly, you're scoring more just like every other player in the league.

[snafu]

20 minutes ago, shrader said:

 

Color me unimpressed.  35 players in the NHL are currently at or above a point per game pace (I'll ignore the three guys who have played <5 games).  Last year only 24 hit that mark (again, ignoring those who barely played).  If each of the players in the top 10 in scoring averages 1 point per game the rest of the season, those top ten will have on average 7 more points than last year's top ten.  I'd venture a guess that a lot of players already have a career season going as of today.  Right off the top, I know Kucherov does.  And several more will by the end of the season.

 

Congratulations O'Reilly, you're scoring more just like every other player in the league.

 

 

Well, at least he looks happy in that photo.

So there's that.

 

 

[BillsFan4]

 

Cant say that I’m too optimistic about tonight. Especially since they already lost 7-3 to Chicago last month. 

 

 

[suorangefan4]

3 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

Cant say that I’m too optimistic about tonight. Especially since they already lost 7-3 to Chicago last month. 

 

 

 

A loss is better for us anyway. We're out of the playoffs. Get me a lot of losses and a center like Turcotte in the draft. What does a win accomplish at this point?

Edited March 7, 2019 by suorangefan4

[BillsFan4]

Hmmm.... I wonder what teams Rob Blake was referring to. 

 

https://theathletic.com/855696/2019/03/07/gms-offseason-priorities-blackhawks-looking-to-spend-sabres-looking-to-deal-rangers-a-wild-card-and-more/

(subscription required) 

 

GMs’ offseason priorities: Blackhawks looking to spend, Sabres looking to deal, Rangers a wild card and more

 

Quote

Like other GMs in his spot, he’s seen the damage done when rebuilding teams take it down too far.

 

“You can’t get rid of everybody,” Blake said. “You need some of these guys around. They’ve developed a culture in L.A.”

 

 

lol

 

 

There was a few paragraphs about Botterill -

 

Quote

9. The Buffalo Sabres are in a completely different spot. Sabres GM Jason Botterill conceded that the Sabres recent play is disappointing but he said it doesn’t necessarily change the offseason plan. They want to make another trade to add a player with term on his contract if it makes sense.

 

“We’ve always known that we had to make adjustments and we’ll have to make adjustments,” Botterill said. “It’s the development of the young kids. Then, also, we’ve always talked about can we add players with term that can help our group? That’s what we did with Brandon Montour. Those are the types of trades we’re going to continue to look at.”

 

 

Quote

.......... He smiled when told that the word on the street was that the Sabres were big game hunting at the deadline. One source mentioned the Sabres as a suitor in the Matt Duchene conversations but Botterill wasn’t giving anything up. “I think there’s discussions,” he said. “Especially around the trade deadline time, there’s always going to be more rumors than fact.”

 

[BillsFan4]

1 minute ago, suorangefan4 said:

 

A loss is better for us anyway. We're out of the playoffs. Get me a lot of losses and a center like Turcotte in the draft. What does a win accomplish at this point?

I hear you. That’s usually where I’m at most years. I always say  “what’s the point of a win streak? It never seems to carry over into next season anyway”. 

 

But I just can’t bring myself to root for draft position this year. Im just so worn out on the losing. I don’t want to see this new batch of young players (Dahlin, Mitts, Thompson etc) have their souls crushed too. 

 

So im rooting for wins, draft position be damned (not that it makes any difference what I root for...lol). 

[suorangefan4]

19 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

I hear you. That’s usually where I’m at most years. I always say  “what’s the point of a win streak? It never seems to carry over into next season anyway”. 

 

But I just can’t bring myself to root for draft position this year. Im just so worn out on the losing. I don’t want to see this new batch of young players (Dahlin, Mitts, Thompson etc) have their souls crushed too. 

 

So im rooting for wins, draft position be damned (not that it makes any difference what I root for...lol). 

 

Losing should help us win more games in the upcoming years though. This year is done.

 

I really hope we manage to get Turcotte. The Sabres need to get as strong as possible down the middle. 

 

Like you said my rooting won't make a difference in how they play, but I also won't be mad if they lose I'll actually be happy. lol

Edited March 7, 2019 by suorangefan4

[BillsFan4]

 

I don’t put much stock in Jeremy White’s “SuperSecretSabresSorce” but it matches up with what I’ve heard elsewhere (and what I posted yesterday) about the Sabres being roughly $1M (per year) apart on an 8yr deal. 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said:

I hear you. That’s usually where I’m at most years. I always say  “what’s the point of a win streak? It never seems to carry over into next season anyway”. 

 

But I just can’t bring myself to root for draft position this year. Im just so worn out on the losing. I don’t want to see this new batch of young players (Dahlin, Mitts, Thompson etc) have their souls crushed too. 

 

So im rooting for wins, draft position be damned (not that it makes any difference what I root for...lol). 

I'm with you on this. Win or lose, I need to see PROGRESSION of our younger players, Skinner hit 40 goals, Dahlin keeps adding points, and Jack hit 90 points with 30 goals. It's not a bad thing for the younger players we are absolutely dependent on to develop to finish strong, bank some wins, and leave with a more positive feeling going into the summer. 

 

But this team is a couple years away, imo, from being playoff contenders, let alone cup contenders. And Botterill's interview with NHL.com had a touch of Regier's "we are in for some suffering" vibe. 

[T&C]

11 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I'm with you on this. Win or lose, I need to see PROGRESSION of our younger players, Skinner hit 40 goals, Dahlin keeps adding points, and Jack hit 90 points with 30 goals. It's not a bad thing for the younger players we are absolutely dependent on to develop to finish strong, bank some wins, and leave with a more positive feeling going into the summer. 

 

But this team is a couple years away, imo, from being playoff contenders, let alone cup contenders. And Botterill's interview with NHL.com had a touch of Regier's "we are in for some suffering" vibe. 

Doesn't it always seem like we're a couple of years away from contention, no matter what year it is. Its just a never ending cycle... at least the Bills backdoored into the playoffs a couple of years ago.

[Nextmanup]

5 hours ago, shrader said:

 

Color me unimpressed.  35 players in the NHL are currently at or above a point per game pace (I'll ignore the three guys who have played <5 games).  Last year only 24 hit that mark (again, ignoring those who barely played).  If each of the players in the top 10 in scoring averages 1 point per game the rest of the season, those top ten will have on average 7 more points than last year's top ten.  I'd venture a guess that a lot of players already have a career season going as of today.  Right off the top, I know Kucherov does.  And several more will by the end of the season.

 

Congratulations O'Reilly, you're scoring more just like every other player in the league.

You're overlooking all the other aspects to ROR's game though.

 

He's the best face-off man in the league.  Incredible 2 way player; eats tons of difficult minutes against the opposition's best players on a nightly basis...

 

He's a hell of a good 2-way C and we miss him enormously.