Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, VW82 said:

 

Ok so taking the lower left chart as example, would you agree that one of the dots in the red bulls eye is more accurate than one of the dots in the white space? My interpretation is fine. You're making the same mistake as OP in assuming that there are no degrees of accuracy. It's harder to catch a pass at the knees or shoelaces (where you have to bend down to get it) than one that hits you right in the chest. One pass is more accurate than the other.    

 

I'm not saying there aren't degrees of accuracy.

 

Of course there are.

 

But judging and valuing those degrees is impossible, especially on the NFL's new favorite pass: the back shoulder throw.

 

On 78.1% of Allen's passes, he gave his professional WR/TE/RB a chance to catch the football. That was 2nd to only one of the other rookie QBs in a highly touted rookie QB class.

 

And that's while he's pushing the ball down the field more than any other QB in the NFL, not just the rookies.

 

Yeah, I think he's 'aight.

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

No.  The dot in the red is more precise, not more accurate.  That's where you're confusing the two; it's shown right in the label of the diagram.

 

The OP talked about catchable balls.  Let's take a WR numbers as the bulls eye.  If the QB throws a ball that is "catchable", which I think could be be interpreted as within the catch radius, then it's accurate.  But not precise.  The OP should weigh in on what he considered accurate.

 

When you say hitting a guy in the numbers consistently, that requires not just accuracy, but precision.  When folks talk about fitting a ball into a tight window that's not just an accurate throw it's a precise throw.  Allen can stand to be more precise for sure.

 

as for completion percentage by the way, if he throws 30 passes the difference between 52 and 60% is about 2 passes a game.  Or two drops or throwaways.

 

I equated a catchable football with accuracy, plain and simple.

 

Defining precision as far as exactly where the ball should have been in relation to the WRs is virtually impossible nowadays, that's why I didn't even try.

[reddogblitz]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Can you identify the passes in that clip that you don't think were catchable?

 

No.  I watched it.  Most he hit the guy in the hands, but some were good D plays. Some were out of bounds etc, but I'm not going to go back and document each one.

 

The cat needs to be more accurate to be a "franchise QB" (whatever that is). And he needs much better WRs as well.  As Giselle would say, he can't throw them and catch them himself.  

 

I'm thinking thAt if someone wanted to they could put together a 5:00 vid of bad passes too.

 

Quote whatever stats you want or videos of drops of whatever. Bottom line. He needs to be more accurate and he needs real NFL WRs too throw to.  We got a whole off season to work on both.

 

Go BILLS !!

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

That's a fair interpretation.  

 

Let me try to highlight using a clinical assay, something I do every day.  Say you are measuring the concentration of substance X, and you know it's 100.  And you want to determine accuracy and precision.  Accuracy would be how close you are to 100 over a series of measurements and is generally defined by standard deviation if the mean.  So I might not have any of the ten measurements come out 100,  but if the values are 95,96,97,98 99, 102,103 104 105, 106 then I am accurate and I accept my measurement because it fits within an acceptable SD. Precision is how many times out of ten measurements I hit the same number.  So let's take that sample of known value 100.  I do ten measurements and each is 90.  I'm very precise but I can't accept that test because it is inaccurate.

 

I agree with my friend above that it comes down to essentially what you consider the SD for a QB throws.  The OP considers it (I think) within the catch radius.  I think that's reasonable, you may not.  But for a QB to be really good he had to combine that with hitting a specific spot reproducibly- precision.  It's not an either/or necessarily; the greats need both.  

 

It wiuld be interesting to watch film with Allen and ask him where he was targeting throws; it would tell a lot about his accuracy and precision.  Take one pass to Croom as an example, I think in the last game.  Croom was coming over the middle, and the ball was out ahead of him by 2-3 feet.  Terrible accuracy at first blush.  But what if he told you he threw it exactly where he wanted, but he and Croom were not communicating on the route, he thought Croom was going to keep crossing but Croom thought he was supposed to sit down?  Allen gets accused of being inaccurate because it affected his completion percentage, but in reality he threw a good ball.

 

Interesting conversation and has made me think more about my approach to analyzing things.

 

Or the missed TD pass in the EZ in the 1st Miami (?) game to Zay that looked like a downright terrible throw to a WIDE OPEN receiver but you heard from Allen after the game in his PC that he expected Jones to sit in the open spot and Dabol's immediate reaction combined with his PC tell you he thought Zay should have done the same.

 

I labelled it as uncatchable because I wasn't judging miscommunication.

 

But on the flip side, take Allen's TD pass to Jones against Miami on his quick short crossing pattern that Allen threw slightly behind him. As it turned out, that throw guided Allen into his TD pass. Allen said after the game he made a bad throw and Say made a great catch, so we know what happened in this case, but what if that exact same pass and play were made by Tom Brady or Drew Brees... would PFF or ESPN stats label that as a bad pass or brilliant ball placement?

 

This judgement of ball placement is just so damn subjective, that's why I stuck with catchable vs uncatchable. Still subjective, but significantly less so.

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, VW82 said:

 

I think OP took any pass that was even remotely catchable (even if the receiver had to lay out to get his finger tips on it, or stop/alter his route and pull it off the ground) and called it a drop/catchable whereas the PFF and ESPN guys held QBs to a little higher standard in terms of what was considered on target. That would seem to be a simpler explanation than assuming everyone is so completely confused with accuracy vs. precision that they messed up their whole analysis.   

 

No. That's literally how I defined uncatchable right in the OP.

 

Ball hits outstretched fingertips = Uncatchable 

 

Ball hits outstretched palm = catchable 

 

There's a big difference between those 2. You see NFL WRs who make the 1st catch every week. You see NFL WRs who make the 2nd catch never in history.

Edited January 17, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, reddogblitz said:

 

No.  I watched it.  Most he hit the guy in the hands, but some were good D plays. Some were out of bounds etc, but I'm not going to go back and document each one.

 

The cat needs to be more accurate to be a "franchise QB" (whatever that is). And he needs much better WRs as well.  As Giselle would say, he can't throw them and catch them himself.  

 

I'm thinking thAt if someone wanted to they could put together a 5:00 vid of bad passes too.

 

Quote whatever stats you want or videos of drops of whatever. Bottom line. He needs to be more accurate and he needs real NFL WRs too throw to.  We got a whole off season to work on both.

 

Go BILLS !!

 

Okay here's another point regarding methodology. Those "good D plays" are still catchable. And I labelled them as such.

 

If the WR has a ball that comes pretty much into his hands but a CB makes a great play swiping the ball out between his hands, it's catchable. A Hail Mary into a crowd of both Bills WRs and DBs is BOTH catchable AND Interceptable.

 

I was talking accuracy, so that great play by the DB where the ball meets the WR was a catchable ball. But if say an LB jumps and tips the ball midway through that path from QB to WR, it was a tipped/batted pass.

 

If ball is out of bounds but WR can reasonably make an NFL WR catch and drag his feet in bounds, it's catchable.

 

It's only a 5 minute YouTube video. I don't see why noting the places you see the uncatchable passes happen is so difficult.

Edited January 17, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[PromoTheRobot]

Fluctuations at the quantum level means that accuracy is an illusion. <mic drop>

[Philly’sFinest]

On 1/15/2019 at 10:17 AM, The_Dude said:

The OPs point isn’t necessary. 

 

We dont need to do these. 

 

This is the kinda crap you write to try and convince yourself that your awful QB, EJ Manuel, really isn’t that bad. 

 

I dont need these stats. I don’t need next gen stats. “Stats are for losers.” 

 

I saw Allen. He passed the eye test with flying colors. No need for paralysis by analysis with him. He’s got it. And I don’t need stats to tell me that. 

 

 

I must agree with this man.

 

I know the narrative, and I was as critical of the pick as anyone.

 

But from what I saw with the kid, I came away quite impressed. The touch passes need work, and the short stuff seems to be his biggest weakness. All very correctable stuff. 

 

The accuracy stuff seems overblown from what I saw. It’s more about him fine tuning his passing, rather than working on accuracy.

 

Besides that, the kid checks all the boxes...especially the leadership, toughness, and hard working part.

[row_33]

practice practice practice

 

get the patterns down with your skill players and with experience it will fall into place a lot better

 

 

[Shaw66]

31 minutes ago, Philly’sFinest said:

I must agree with this man.

 

I know the narrative, and I was as critical of the pick as anyone.

 

But from what I saw with the kid, I came away quite impressed. The touch passes need work, and the short stuff seems to be his biggest weakness. All very correctable stuff. 

 

The accuracy stuff seems overblown from what I saw. It’s more about him fine tuning his passing, rather than working on accuracy.

 

Besides that, the kid checks all the boxes...especially the leadership, toughness, and hard working part.

I won't go back and quote the Dude like you did, but you two are saying what I've said, too.   I will add, though, for the Dude, that I do appreciate Transplant's work on this, because it validates to some extent what Dude, Philly and I all think we're seeing.  

 

We've seen it from preseason - "makes all the throws" kind of talent.  It was obvious right away.  And like Philly says, it's not that any one is saying Allen is perfect or ready for the Hall of Fame.  What we're saying is that he has some things to work on; if you ask McDermott, he'd probably say every aspect of his game needs work.  But if you ask him whether he's satisfied where Allen is and the progress he's made, McD likely would say he's exceeded expectations.   If Rex were still the coach, he'd say "are you friggin kidding me?  Have you watched him?!!?"

 

If Beane does his job during the offseason (oline and receivers) and if McD and Daboll do their jobs, fans all over the country will be talking about Allen next season. 

[row_33]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I won't go back and quote the Dude like you did, but you two are saying what I've said, too.   I will add, though, for the Dude, that I do appreciate Transplant's work on this, because it validates to some extent what Dude, Philly and I all think we're seeing.  

 

We've seen it from preseason - "makes all the throws" kind of talent.  It was obvious right away.  And like Philly says, it's not that any one is saying Allen is perfect or ready for the Hall of Fame.  What we're saying is that he has some things to work on; if you ask McDermott, he'd probably say every aspect of his game needs work.  But if you ask him whether he's satisfied where Allen is and the progress he's made, McD likely would say he's exceeded expectations.   If Rex were still the coach, he'd say "are you friggin kidding me?  Have you watched him?!!?"

 

If Beane does his job during the offseason (oline and receivers) and if McD and Daboll do their jobs, fans all over the country will be talking about Allen next season. 

 

with an offseason to work on things it still will be okay with the same crew

 

we went from a QB who was scared to throw into a receiver to a raw rookie with a rifle for an arm

 

 

[BringBackFlutie]

On 1/15/2019 at 3:35 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

So I think this is an important point to make, too.

 

Allen has more of those woefully inaccurate passes than any of the other QBs.  He definitely has some real head-scratchers.

 

But those throws still don't happen all that often.  And when he's woefully inaccurate, it's usually a pass that just ends up in no-man's land instead of a DB's arms.  

 

But how much does it really matter if you have, for example, 2 QBs who throw 30 passes.  QB#1 throws 25 into the WR's hands, 3 just out of reach of his outstretched arms and 2 throws end up 5 yards away.  QB #2 throws 23 into the WR's hands and 7 just out of reach of his outstretched arms.

 

QB#1 might have those twitter worthy WTF throws you can point to, but was he really less accurate?

 

Actually, yes.  The QB who threw the two passes 5 yards out is less accurate, as his misses weren't closer to the target.  Accuracy (as @oldmanfan has said a few times in this thread) is the ability to consistently land in the area of the target.  Precision is the ability to consistently hit a small area, regardless of its relation to the target.  Obviously, you want both, but accuracy is better in the NFL, because it will at least give the receiver a chance to catch the pass, whereas precision, on its own, could mean that the pass is NEVER near the receiver.

 

Now, I just said the above to lend clarity for other posters.  As far as the actual situation of Allen sailing some throws into the middle of nowhere, it doesn't make a difference in completion percentage between him and the guy who doesn't, but still misses.  Like you alluded- the results on the stat chart are the same.  I'll also say that I like the head-scratchers more than the near-misses, because head-scratchers are probably an indication of miscommunication, rather than inaccuracy.  So in these situations, given miscommunication as a valid reason for the miss, and taking those throws out of the equation, Allen is actually more accurate, and has a higher completion percentage than the other QB.

Edited January 17, 2019 by BringBackFlutie

[row_33]

Here's a good Clinic with varying degrees of difficulty and risk.

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

3 hours ago, Bandito said:

What would our offense have been without Josh Allen? He was by far our Offensive MVP this season. That McDermott started Peterman at the beginning of the season, is mindboggling

We scored 41 points/ game in Barkley starts. ?

[hemma]

2 hours ago, row_33 said:

Here's a good Clinic with varying degrees of difficulty and risk.

 

 

 

Thomas is just an unbelievable receiver

Catches 85% of the throws and that is with serious volume.

Granted that is from Brees, but the other guys on the Saints can’t approach that figure.

 

I hope Beane comes through in this draft and doesn’t lose out to the new Asst Fins GM.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, row_33 said:

Here's a good Clinic with varying degrees of difficulty and risk.

 

 

Of course, this is just the receptions, so we don't see Brees's mistakes, but out of all those completions, I saw only 2 that weren't essentially perfect.  Two were tough catches but catches you expect the receiver to make.  Brees is incredible.   Allen doesn't do what Brees does, but no one in the league does, either.  Not even Brady. 

[Stank_Nasty]

2 hours ago, row_33 said:

Here's a good Clinic with varying degrees of difficulty and risk.

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, hemma said:

 

Thomas is just an unbelievable receiver

Catches 85% of the throws and that is with serious volume.

Granted that is from Brees, but the other guys on the Saints can’t approach that figure.

 

I hope Beane comes through in this draft and doesn’t lose out to the new Asst Fins GM.

Are there any bills over the last handful of years that put the vice grip on that contested td at the 2:00 mark and keep it all the way to the ground? I think not. what a luxury that must be as a qb.

[row_33]

23 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

 

Are there any bills over the last handful of years that put the vice grip on that contested td at the 2:00 mark and keep it all the way to the ground? I think not. what a luxury that must be as a qb.

 

 

i could jokingly suggest they make the catch if they didn't believe they could and half-tried to hang on?

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

I added the raw numbers into the OP for the sake of transparency to anyone who wants to try the exercise because they don't trust my %s.

[billsfan89]

20 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

 It seems that people keep making, woulda, coulda, shoulda scenarios around Josh's completion percentage. I just think it is what it is. Doesn't mean he won't be good,  it just is what it is.

 

I think his completion percentage can't just be explained away by outside factors. Although they could be a factor it is what is over the course of multiple College and his first NFL season. Allen does have issues missing some throws and he does need to improve his decision making to take easier throws when available. Allen's cannon arm is a blessing but it means that he thinks he can make almost any throw. That leads to bad decisions or more risky less high percentage decisions. I think his footwork issues certainly prevent him from making some of the easier high percentage throws that he sometimes misses. 

 

That being said, can him improve on his deficiencies that lead to his accuracy/completion percentage issues? That's a big maybe. Yes he certainly can improve his decision making, Allen is a bright hard working kid. With good coaching and more experience he can certainly improve on that aspect of his game and making more sound decisions will improve his completion percentage, lower his turnovers, and improve his overall quality of play. 

 

Now can he improve his footwork enough to keep him from missing some easy throws? Well that's a much harder thing to do. From my understanding footwork is something that can be improved but its much more difficult to dramatically improve your footwork as a QB. Again Allen is a smart hardworking kid, he certainly is going to put in the work to improve and has the intellect to improve but to what degree can he do it?

 

We all know Allen has the arm strength, the release, the size, hand size, speed, and intangibles of a high caliber NFL QB, but can he make the improvements needed in those two critical areas of the game? 

[Mikey152]

Precision can be calculated in one of two ways when it comes to throwing a football, and neither of them are possible during a live game due to A) a sample set of 1 per pass attempt (ie every attempt is different and has a million variables) and B) Throws are spacial, time-relevant, and optimal location (and therefore intent) is contingent on situation.

 

So the reality is...we really only are talking about accuracy here.  But, semantics aside...clearly the evaluation of accuracy is flawed for some of the same reasons (B) and because an "accurate pass" is subjective...it's why opinions on Josh Allen's accuracy varies so wildly.  

 

I don't have stats to back it up, but I would say that from a strictly observational standpoint...When Josh Allen has time and a clean pocket, he has the ability to deliver the football as accurately and consistently (ie precisely) as anyone in the league to all levels of the field.  I don't recall too many misfires, and conversely saw quite a few dead-accurate passes, in this scenario.  I think he would destroy other QBs at an "accuracy" skills challenge, for example. Where he struggles is when he is rushed, trying to do too much, and misreads/miscommunication.  Those are all things that get better with experience, IMO (and with better teammates)...and I think for those of us that have watched him, it's why he looks a lot better when you watch him than he does on paper.  I think OP's analysis at least partially helps to bridge that gap.

 

 

[oldmanfan]

10 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

Precision can be calculated in one of two ways when it comes to throwing a football, and neither of them are possible during a live game due to A) a sample set of 1 per pass attempt (ie every attempt is different and has a million variables) and B) Throws are spacial, time-relevant, and optimal location (and therefore intent) is contingent on situation.

 

So the reality is...we really only are talking about accuracy here.  But, semantics aside...clearly the evaluation of accuracy is flawed for some of the same reasons (B) and because an "accurate pass" is subjective...it's why opinions on Josh Allen's accuracy varies so wildly.  

 

I don't have stats to back it up, but I would say that from a strictly observational standpoint...When Josh Allen has time and a clean pocket, he has the ability to deliver the football as accurately and consistently (ie precisely) as anyone in the league to all levels of the field.  I don't recall too many misfires, and conversely saw quite a few dead-accurate passes, in this scenario.  I think he would destroy other QBs at an "accuracy" skills challenge, for example. Where he struggles is when he is rushed, trying to do too much, and misreads/miscommunication.  Those are all things that get better with experience, IMO (and with better teammates)...and I think for those of us that have watched him, it's why he looks a lot better when you watch him than he does on paper.  I think OP's analysis at least partially helps to bridge that gap.

 

 

Good stuff.  You nail it on precision and accuracy in that the only true way would be off field at a specific target.  I have made the statement that Allen needs to be more precise and I agree based one one throw that is not measurable.  My statement is directed more at say an entire games worth of throws, where I see receivers having to reach back a bit, or where they make a catch but aren't in position to get YAC.  I feel he's accurate on such throws but could be more precise, with the assumption that he wanted to hit a different specific target within the catch radius than he did, such that receivers would be running after catch and such.

 

Thanks for this post.

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

Actually, yes.  The QB who threw the two passes 5 yards out is less accurate, as his misses weren't closer to the target.  Accuracy (as @oldmanfan has said a few times in this thread) is the ability to consistently land in the area of the target.  Precision is the ability to consistently hit a small area, regardless of its relation to the target.  Obviously, you want both, but accuracy is better in the NFL, because it will at least give the receiver a chance to catch the pass, whereas precision, on its own, could mean that the pass is NEVER near the receiver.

 

Now, I just said the above to lend clarity for other posters.  As far as the actual situation of Allen sailing some throws into the middle of nowhere, it doesn't make a difference in completion percentage between him and the guy who doesn't, but still misses.  Like you alluded- the results on the stat chart are the same.  I'll also say that I like the head-scratchers more than the near-misses, because head-scratchers are probably an indication of miscommunication, rather than inaccuracy.  So in these situations, given miscommunication as a valid reason for the miss, and taking those throws out of the equation, Allen is actually more accurate, and has a higher completion percentage than the other QB.

 

Aside from arguing the details of accuracy vs. precision, which QB would you rather have, the one who puts 83% of his passes in a place his WR can catch it or the one who puts 76% of his passes in a place where his WR can catch it?

[GunnerBill]

22 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

They traded for Benjamin and Matthews, traded up for Zay (instead of JuJu or Kupp), and drafted Ray Ray over ESB.  

 

This. Though I don't love ESB to be honest. I'd rather point out that they took Ray Ray and Austin Proehl over Robert Foster and risked losing him in the lottery of UDFA. That looks pretty dumb at this point. 

[C.Biscuit97]

46 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This. Though I don't love ESB to be honest. I'd rather point out that they took Ray Ray and Austin Proehl over Robert Foster and risked losing him in the lottery of UDFA. That looks pretty dumb at this point. 

Honestly with ESB, it’s all about upside.  He’s 6’5” fast and played with a terrible throwing qb in college.  I barely remember Ray Ray, who played at Clemson and wasn’t even their best slot receiver (that was 38 year old Hunter).  I think it would have been for Allen to grow with a freak type receiver his rookie year.

 

thats what drives me crazy about all the blame the other players are getting.  The staff that picked Allen put together this offense. It didn’t have to be terrible.  Allen didn’t have to be forced into playing if they managed the QB position.

 

i swear this is nothing person.  I didn’t like Allen before the draft because those guys fail at super high rates.  I know people who know Allen and hear he’s a great dude.  I want to be wrong.  But I hope he isn’t going into the offseason thinking he doesn’t need to become a better passer because his wrs sucked.  60% passer with a 2:1 td:int ratio isn’t too much to hope for. And I sincerely hope he gets it because we might actually have a franchise guy. 

[BringBackFlutie]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Aside from arguing the details of accuracy vs. precision, which QB would you rather have, the one who puts 83% of his passes in a place his WR can catch it or the one who puts 76% of his passes in a place where his WR can catch it?

 

What does that have to do with the part you put in bold?  It was my impression that you were making an argument that putting a ball out of reach, whether by a small or large margin, is still putting the ball out of reach (all of those passes are uncatchable).  Therefore, regardless of where the ball is when it's out of reach, both cases result in the same completion %.  I was merely nitpicking your terminology, because you said both QBs are equally "accurate," rather than both have the same "completion %."  I figured it would be helpful for me to point that out to you, since a lot of your OP revolves around the idea that completion % != accuracy.

 

 

 

...And obviously I want 83%.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

What does that have to do with the part you put in bold?  It was my impression that you were making an argument that putting a ball out of reach, whether by a small or large margin, is still putting the ball out of reach (all of those passes are uncatchable).  Therefore, regardless of where the ball is when it's out of reach, both cases result in the same completion %.  I was merely nitpicking your terminology, because you said both QBs are equally "accurate," rather than both have the same "completion %."  I figured it would be helpful for me to point that out to you, since a lot of your OP revolves around the idea that completion % != accuracy.

 

 

 

...And obviously I want 83%.

I'msure you guys are having fun, and I'll jump in only to respond to your characterization of the OP.   The OP is NOT about completion percentage + accuracy.  The OP is about the fact that if you look at various pieces of data, like catchable and uncatchable balls, that relate in some ways to a passer's accuracy, the data suggest that Allen is no less accurate, or at least no more inaccurate, than the rest of the rookie QB class.  I didn't here him trying to prove that Allen is accurate.  Rather, he was trying to show that there isn't much of a statistical reason to argue that Allen is any more inaccurate than his peers, none of whom get the "accuracy" comment from the national media.  .  

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This. Though I don't love ESB to be honest. I'd rather point out that they took Ray Ray and Austin Proehl over Robert Foster and risked losing him in the lottery of UDFA. That looks pretty dumb at this point. 

 

Who the friggin hell is ESB?

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

What does that have to do with the part you put in bold?  It was my impression that you were making an argument that putting a ball out of reach, whether by a small or large margin, is still putting the ball out of reach (all of those passes are uncatchable).  Therefore, regardless of where the ball is when it's out of reach, both cases result in the same completion %.  I was merely nitpicking your terminology, because you said both QBs are equally "accurate," rather than both have the same "completion %."  I figured it would be helpful for me to point that out to you, since a lot of your OP revolves around the idea that completion % != accuracy.

 

 

 

...And obviously I want 83%.

 

Huh? You think that I'm arguing that completion percentage = accuracy?

 

Am I misreading that?

 

That's absolutely not what I said.

 

This thread has turned into an argument over how to define accuracy and the difference between accuracy and precision. I get the reason that discussion evolved, but mainly my conclusion after doing this exercise is that as far as the rookie QBs go, Allen throws the ball where it should/could be caught just fine. 

 

Obviously he can improve, and I'm sure he's the first to tell you that.

 

But his rookie year as a QB passing the football was pretty much as promising as the rest of this highly touted rookie QB class. Really the exercise I would want to do would be to explore previous rookie QB classes to make that comparison.

 

Rookies always have to improve. Comparing him to Brees or Brady and criticizing him or any other rookie based on that comparison is just stupid.

 

Allen's rookie season looked absolutely more than fine as far as rookie seasons go for him passing the football.

 

And even though I expect and want him to improve, I think if we simply upgrade our offensive weapons to guys who can catch the damn ball and our OL is no longer a sieve, even with no personal improvements in the offseason and a replicated rookie season as far as accuracy goes, I think his numbers will still skyrocket and this team will still exceed the expectations of most.

Edited January 18, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[HappyDays]

44 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Who the friggin hell is ESB?

 

Equanimeous St. Brown, a receiver who was drafted by Green Bay in the 6th round and ended the season with less receiving yards than UDFA Robert Foster. Don't worry if you haven't heard of him. A few people were obsessed with him before the draft and haven't let it go. He had 328 yards with Rodgers throwing him the ball. We didn't miss out on anything.

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This. Though I don't love ESB to be honest. I'd rather point out that they took Ray Ray and Austin Proehl over Robert Foster and risked losing him in the lottery of UDFA. That looks pretty dumb at this point. 

 

6th rounders, 7th rounders, and UDFAs are practically interchangeable. Trying to predict which of those late round players will be successful is impossible.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#cd4cc8b7495b

 

If you find one decent starter from your pool of 6th rounders, 7th rounders, and UDFAs you're doing well. The Bills found 2 last year.

[BringBackFlutie]

44 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Huh? You think that I'm arguing that completion percentage = accuracy?

 

Am I misreading that?

 

That's absolutely not what I said.

 

This thread has turned into an argument over how to define accuracy and the difference between accuracy and precision. I get the reason that discussion evolved, but mainly my conclusion after doing this exercise is that as far as the rookie QBs go, Allen throws the ball where it should/could be caught just fine. 

 

Obviously he can improve, and I'm sure he's the first to tell you that.

 

But his rookie year as a QB passing the football was pretty much as promising as the rest of this highly touted rookie QB class. Really the exercise I would want to do would be to explore previous rookie QB classes to make that comparison.

 

Rookies always have to improve. Comparing him to Brees or Brady and criticizing him or any other rookie based on that comparison is just stupid.

 

Allen's rookie season looked absolutely more than fine as far as rookie seasons go for him passing the football.

 

And even though I expect and want him to improve, I think if we simply upgrade our offensive weapons to guys who can catch the damn ball and our OL is no longer a sieve, even with no personal improvements in the offseason and a replicated rookie season as far as accuracy goes, I think his numbers will still skyrocket and this team will still exceed the expectations of most.

 

Bruh.  I get all that, and I totally get the premise of the OP and I'm on board.  I don't understand this analogy:

 

"But how much does it really matter if you have, for example, 2 QBs who throw 30 passes.  QB#1 throws 25 into the WR's hands, 3 just out of reach of his outstretched arms and 2 throws end up 5 yards away.  QB #2 throws 23 into the WR's hands and 7 just out of reach of his outstretched arms.   QB#1 might have those twitter worthy WTF throws you can point to, but was he really less accurate?"

 

You say "accurate" at the end there.  I want to know, by what definition?  I can't understand the analogy when applying my definition.  That's all.  I thought I knew what you were saying when I assumed you misspoke.  ?

[Mikey152]

7 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Good stuff.  You nail it on precision and accuracy in that the only true way would be off field at a specific target.  I have made the statement that Allen needs to be more precise and I agree based one one throw that is not measurable.  My statement is directed more at say an entire games worth of throws, where I see receivers having to reach back a bit, or where they make a catch but aren't in position to get YAC.  I feel he's accurate on such throws but could be more precise, with the assumption that he wanted to hit a different specific target within the catch radius than he did, such that receivers would be running after catch and such.

 

Thanks for this post.

Whether or not I agree with the terminology, I totally get what you are trying to say and I agree with you...he was not an efficient passer, and part of that was due to ball placement.

 

What I also think is, under certain (ie ideal) circumstances, he throws darts and can do so to all areas of the field.  It’s those throws where he needs to gear down a little or quickly move his feet that he seems to be less consistent with...I’m not sure he will ever be more than ok at them.  It’s the downside of having a rocket arm...you have to take so much off to get the proper trajectory, it’s almost impossible to maintain proper mechanics consistently...if you’ve ever tried to throw a football to a small child, it’s almost impossible to slow your arm down and still throw an accurate spiral.

 

The other misfires are often timing related...throwing to a spot too early or too late (or right on time but your receiver is early or late) can have a huge impact, and throwing as hard as he does only exacerbates the problem because receivers don’t have as much time to adjust and make the throw look even wilder than it really is. I think those issue will work themselves out over time.

[Ol Dirty B]

On 1/15/2019 at 7:46 AM, formerlyofCtown said:

**** the Media

 

And that kind of sentiment is why the country is where it's at. You realize if Josh Allen wasn't a Bill you wouldn't be rooting for him, and most likely agreeing with the sports media. The opinion wasn't going to change unless he went to the Patriots or New Orleans. 

 

Secondly, this thread is crazy. I stopped taking it seriously when the Clay pass in the endzone was basically considered a drop. You have a point you wish to be true and nothing is objective about this. You created your own set of standards and everything. Which is fine, but it is obvious you are inherently biased whereas the people you disagree with aren't for the most part.

 

Some definitely were hard on him pre draft and want to see him fail so they can say they were right, but I think that's the minority.

 

I hope he works out, he shows flashes, but then he does some really bad things. I don't think anyone can definitively say he will be great or a bust. But I do know he isn't accurate, that isn't made up. I shouldn't even say inaccurate, he just isn't consistent at this point.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

Bruh.  I get all that, and I totally get the premise of the OP and I'm on board.  I don't understand this analogy:

 

"But how much does it really matter if you have, for example, 2 QBs who throw 30 passes.  QB#1 throws 25 into the WR's hands, 3 just out of reach of his outstretched arms and 2 throws end up 5 yards away.  QB #2 throws 23 into the WR's hands and 7 just out of reach of his outstretched arms.   QB#1 might have those twitter worthy WTF throws you can point to, but was he really less accurate?"

 

You say "accurate" at the end there.  I want to know, by what definition?  I can't understand the analogy when applying my definition.  That's all.  I thought I knew what you were saying when I assumed you misspoke.  ?

 

I don't really feel like arguing the semantics of the meanings of a word.

 

I think we're on the same page

[BringBackFlutie]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I don't really feel like arguing the semantics of the meanings of a word.

 

I think we're on the same page

 

Well.  At least accept my heart.  

[transplantbillsfan]

20 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

Well.  At least accept my heart.  

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

6th rounders, 7th rounders, and UDFAs are practically interchangeable. Trying to predict which of those late round players will be successful is impossible.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#cd4cc8b7495b

 

If you find one decent starter from your pool of 6th rounders, 7th rounders, and UDFAs you're doing well. The Bills found 2 last year.

 

Indeed. But they took 3 players at the same position and it was the last of those 3 who found success. 

[formerlyofCtown]

3 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

And that kind of sentiment is why the country is where it's at. You realize if Josh Allen wasn't a Bill you wouldn't be rooting for him, and most likely agreeing with the sports media. The opinion wasn't going to change unless he went to the Patriots or New Orleans. 

 

Secondly, this thread is crazy. I stopped taking it seriously when the Clay pass in the endzone was basically considered a drop. You have a point you wish to be true and nothing is objective about this. You created your own set of standards and everything. Which is fine, but it is obvious you are inherently biased whereas the people you disagree with aren't for the most part.

 

Some definitely were hard on him pre draft and want to see him fail so they can say they were right, but I think that's the minority.

 

I hope he works out, he shows flashes, but then he does some really bad things. I don't think anyone can definitively say he will be great or a bust. But I do know he isn't accurate, that isn't made up. I shouldn't even say inaccurate, he just isn't consistent at this point.

lighten Up.

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

Some definitely were hard on him pre draft and want to see him fail so they can say they were right, but I think that's the minority.

 

I hope he works out, he shows flashes, but then he does some really bad things. I don't think anyone can definitively say he will be great or a bust. But I do know he isn't accurate, that isn't made up. I shouldn't even say inaccurate, he just isn't consistent at this point.

 

These two bits I absolutely agree with. His accuracy is still inconsistent - that was my view on him coming out at well. Not that he was fundamentally inaccurate but that he has flashes of unexplained inaccuracy. I have said on here that I do think there was some progress on that in the latter half of the season - he seemed to have fewer of those head scratch inaccurate throws when he gets into a rhythm (which is probably normal). When they come they tend to come early in games, early in halves and early in drives. I don't think he is every going to be Drew Brees (only Nathan Peterman can meet that high standard ?) but he has shown some growth.