Bills Should Be Judicious in Free Agency

[chris heff]

25 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

 

I'd like to see Beane go after an experienced RT like Bobbie Massie from CHI.

What do you guys think?

I think I’d like a center and guard in free agency draft a LT, maybe Greg Little, start him at RT until he gets acclimated and then switch to left side.

[MrEpsYtown]

30 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

 

I'd like to see Beane go after an experienced RT like Bobbie Massie from CHI.

What do you guys think?

Honestly, Massie is only marginally better than Mills. He had a good year this year so maybe he is developing. 

 

Im looking at Daryl Williams like everyone else...but I also like Josh Wells. He's played a bunch of left and right tackle for Jacksonville. Has a good amount of experience and is a bit under the radar. I think he deserves a shot to start at RT somewhere.

[ColoradoBills]

18 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Honestly, Massie is only marginally better than Mills. He had a good year this year so maybe he is developing. 

 

Im looking at Daryl Williams like everyone else...but I also like Josh Wells. He's played a bunch of left and right tackle for Jacksonville. Has a good amount of experience and is a bit under the radar. I think he deserves a shot to start at RT somewhere.

 

Actually his last 2 years were good.  He did start a little slow in 2017 but came on stronger as the year went on.

Josh Wells is an option if he can stay healthy.

Daryl Williams could be a great pick but you can't count on him being there.

IF he wasn't then what do they do.  Got to have someone in FA just in case.

Mills will get 4+ million from someone I bet.

 

So, if they are going to target Williams then your idea of Wells is a good one.

[Aussie Joe]

4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Mills will get 4+ million from someone I bet.

 

If Seantrel Henderson got $4mil last year then I agree someone will pay Mills that..

[Formerly Allan in MD]

7 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

I don’t think anyone here desires or even suspects Beane will go full Redskins and make some stupid signing that blows up their cap in 4 years. At least I haven’t seen that opinion expressed here. 

Goling "full Redskins" translates to jumping into the pool and assuming it has water in it.

[nucci]

8 hours ago, chris heff said:

I think tackle is the biggest need, there is not one in top 25 FA according to this.

 

http://nfltraderumors.co/top-25-2019-nfl-free-agents-list/

Center is the biggest need on line right now. 

[CaptnCoke11]

Donovan Smith could be a target as well at OT.  He’s been playing well for Tampa

[dezertbill]

Another player I would like to see Beane take a shot at is Jared Cook.

 

The Raiders were horrible.  Yet at 31 years old he caught 68 receptions for almost 900 yards and 6 TD's.  More importantly, he caught over 67% of the balls thrown at him.  He would bring veteran leadership into the locker room also. 

 

He just came off a 2 year $10 million deal.  Can probably sign him to something similar and draft a TE to groom  

[GreggTX]

We'll still sign some average FA's if they are an upgrade. Several positions on the OL and at WR and TE could be upgraded with just average talent. I wouldn't be surprised to see us sign as many as 5 new starters on offense with maybe 2 of them being significant upgrades and the rest, smaller upgrades.

[ProcessTruster]

17 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

Milano, White, Foster, T. Johnson and Jones aren't eligible this off-season for contract extensions.  Lawson isn't their "own guy" either. Poyer is signed through 2020 and Hyde through 2021. 

 

 

I not sure i understand what "aren't eligible for extensions "means?  by contract?   They can't cut a 5 year contract with Tre White today?   I don't want that guy getting within 2 years of free agency..  

20 hours ago, racketmaster said:

Brandon Beane indicated that the Bills would be judicious in their approach to free agency this year and I think this is the right approach. They have "taken their medicine" and now have the ability to spend at will, but if they were to do that we would end up back in salary cap jail soon enough. The Bills just went through "bankruptcy" and their debts have mostly been discharged. Now what? Do you stick to a plan of spending wisely and staying in budget or do you go right back to overspending and put yourself in debt. 

 

By all accounts, the 2019 free agent class lacks higher end talent and has limited depth. The market would indicate that average free agents will be significantly overpaid in such an environment. Some fans remember years ago when the Bills had some cap room and decided to spend a significant amount of it on Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker. This is an example of being desperate to just fill a hole and willing to pay much more than the player is warranted. A few bad contracts like that and we will be backed up against the wall on the cap in short order.

 

As it stands now, the Bills could be tempted to spend big on average talent but it is much better to take the judicious approach Beane has talked about. Players like Hughes and Mccoy will be free agents after the 2019 season. They will have to be resigned or replaced. Those are easier decisions given their age but what about players like Dion Dawkins, Matt Millano and even Zay Jones. They have 2 years left before they hit free agency. Jordan Poyer also has 2 years left before his contract expires and what about a big ticket player like Tre White. A decision will have to be made on him after the 2019 season as to give him the 5th year option. It's around this time that extension talks will begin to avoid the franchise tag. I'd like the Bills to roll over some of the cap savings rather than foolishly spend it on average talent this year. The Bills have an opportunity to keep the space and begin signing and rewarding their own talent. Talent that fits with the locker room and schemes we run. I believe this is what Beane has in mind so let's hope he is able to remain diligent and execute this vision. 

totally agree.  re sign our own guys now.. don't wait until their contract expires , their agents will pull them out of Buffalo in a heartbeat.  Its happened too many times in past to count. 

[ALF]

Carry over enough cap to the 2020 FA if there are slim pickens in 2019 on offense.  

[BillsVet]

3 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

I not sure i understand what "aren't eligible for extensions "means?  by contract?   They can't cut a 5 year contract with Tre White today?   I don't want that guy getting within 2 years of free agency..  

totally agree.  re sign our own guys now.. don't wait until their contract expires , their agents will pull them out of Buffalo in a heartbeat.  Its happened too many times in past to count. 

 

The current CBA does not permit rookies to re-sign until after their third year of their rookie contract. 

 

http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/front-office/2017/06/26/art-rookie-extension-deal/

[Big Gun]

With Castillo gone I think the oline improves with addition by subtraction and becomes less of a need in FA than previously thought. Maybe they go after one or more oline but IMO they instantly became better by firing Castillo. I think Shady will have a way better year also, Castillo was horrible and he was gone as soon as the season ended so what does that tell you.

[Prickly Pete]

On 1/1/2019 at 6:42 AM, OJ Tom said:

I was sure he was gonna come out with a statement declaring that they planned to take a "lavish and foolish" approach to Free Agency this off-season.

 

It's funny, because now I'm kinda thinking it might not be a bad idea to make statements (especially starting well before the Free Agency period begins) that you plan to spend lavishly and how you have many needs, etc. Just because you say it, doesn't mean you have to do it. 

 

Just get the attention of all the players and agents right away. Let them think about playing in Buffalo ("I like that new QB, Josh Allen"..."I watched their games, they could use a guy like me"..."Buffalo ain't such a bad place"...etc), and you get a little space in their mind and imagination. Otherwise, as a player, you might not even get around to looking at Buffalo very closely...there are so many other teams. Some of these signings happen quick, and when a guy is considering similar offers, I think you have a better chance if the guy knows a bit more, and has already  spent some time looking into a particular team. There are lots of guys in the NFC that have never even played against the Bills, let alone been to Buffalo. Buffalo just isn't on their radar.

 

And who would you want your agent to call first, a team (especially a perennial loser) that says "we're going to be very careful with our money",

or the team that announces "We have lots of cap space, and we're ready to spend!"?

 

 

Edited January 2, 2019 by OJ Tom

[ctk232]

On 1/1/2019 at 6:16 AM, racketmaster said:

Brandon Beane indicated that the Bills would be judicious in their approach to free agency this year and I think this is the right approach. They have "taken their medicine" and now have the ability to spend at will, but if they were to do that we would end up back in salary cap jail soon enough. The Bills just went through "bankruptcy" and their debts have mostly been discharged. Now what? Do you stick to a plan of spending wisely and staying in budget or do you go right back to overspending and put yourself in debt. 

 

By all accounts, the 2019 free agent class lacks higher end talent and has limited depth. The market would indicate that average free agents will be significantly overpaid in such an environment. Some fans remember years ago when the Bills had some cap room and decided to spend a significant amount of it on Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker. This is an example of being desperate to just fill a hole and willing to pay much more than the player is warranted. A few bad contracts like that and we will be backed up against the wall on the cap in short order.

 

As it stands now, the Bills could be tempted to spend big on average talent but it is much better to take the judicious approach Beane has talked about. Players like Hughes and Mccoy will be free agents after the 2019 season. They will have to be resigned or replaced. Those are easier decisions given their age but what about players like Dion Dawkins, Matt Millano and even Zay Jones. They have 2 years left before they hit free agency. Jordan Poyer also has 2 years left before his contract expires and what about a big ticket player like Tre White. A decision will have to be made on him after the 2019 season as to give him the 5th year option. It's around this time that extension talks will begin to avoid the franchise tag. I'd like the Bills to roll over some of the cap savings rather than foolishly spend it on average talent this year. The Bills have an opportunity to keep the space and begin signing and rewarding their own talent. Talent that fits with the locker room and schemes we run. I believe this is what Beane has in mind so let's hope he is able to remain diligent and execute this vision. 

I think they can manage both with a focus on locking down young guys like Milano and Tre, and extending other key guys like Poyer, Hughes, and maybe even Shady.

 

Given Beane's focus on fulfilling need through FA, the likelihood of us actually landing two OL, a WR, defensive depth with DL, LB, or DB isn't high at all. It's more likely the case that we end up getting one or two OL guys, a WR or defensive depth and that's it. One thing we learned from this past offseason is that, while Beane was reticent to make moves in consideration of his "calculated approach" to the cap issue for this year and extending guys longterm, it's that guys don't always want to sign here despite us offering them. Beane did offer to more people than we ended up getting obviously, but in FA there's never a guarantee you land any players much less over pay for the ones you do get.

 

We've done it before and FA is always more prone to overpaying average talent, but with the space we do have this year, it at least allows us slight cushion in how we can approach this year's pool while maintaining focus on extending key components of an existing team. Especially along the defense.

[thebandit27]

Not sure if anyone knows or cares, but here's the 2019 PFF FA Tracker:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-2019-nfl-free-agent-tracker

 

I'm not a huge fan of their grading system, but they do compile a nice list of FAs by type and snap count, which I find useful.

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, pop gun said:

With Castillo gone I think the oline improves with addition by subtraction and becomes less of a need in FA than previously thought. Maybe they go after one or more oline but IMO they instantly became better by firing Castillo. I think Shady will have a way better year also, Castillo was horrible and he was gone as soon as the season ended so what does that tell you.

 

The bigger issue is that McDermott has, after only 2 seasons, fired 2 of his principal assistant coaches, both of whom were on the offensive side.  Last year it was Dennison, and now it's Castillo.  At this point, McCoach's coaching decisions on that side of the ball winning games are suspect. 

 

And let's not forget he started making the defensive calls at some point in the season, if only temporarily.  The problem isn't so much with guys like Castillo.  It's the HC picking the assistants and a HC/GM combination that haven't really provided much talent on the offensive side of the ball in 2 off-seasons.     

[Big Gun]

34 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

The bigger issue is that McDermott has, after only 2 seasons, fired 2 of his principal assistant coaches, both of whom were on the offensive side.  Last year it was Dennison, and now it's Castillo.  At this point, McCoach's coaching decisions on that side of the ball winning games are suspect. 

 

And let's not forget he started making the defensive calls at some point in the season, if only temporarily.  The problem isn't so much with guys like Castillo.  It's the HC picking the assistants and a HC/GM combination that haven't really provided much talent on the offensive side of the ball in 2 off-seasons.     

Oh I agree 100%.

McDermott hasn't shown me anything other than being a rah rah type guy. Very questionable decisions made by him relating to coaches, players and in game. That said I really do think the next oline coach will be a whole lot better than Castillo. He almost has to be but McDermotts track record so far leaves a little something to be desired as far a hires go.

[Prickly Pete]

12 hours ago, GreggTX said:

We'll still sign some average FA's if they are an upgrade. Several positions on the OL and at WR and TE could be upgraded with just average talent. I wouldn't be surprised to see us sign as many as 5 new starters on offense with maybe 2 of them being significant upgrades and the rest, smaller upgrades.

 

This is how I have been looking at it. Just getting upgrades at 5 positions on the Offense would be huge, and not very difficult to achieve. 

[Prickly Pete]

40 minutes ago, pop gun said:

Oh I agree 100%.

McDermott hasn't shown me anything other than being a rah rah type guy. Very questionable decisions made by him relating to coaches, players and in game. That said I really do think the next oline coach will be a whole lot better than Castillo. He almost has to be but McDermotts track record so far leaves a little something to be desired as far a hires go.

 

 

I think Buffalo has suddenly become a more desirable landing spot for assistants now that they have an up and coming QB.

 

While I agree that McDermott doesn't seem to be a master strategist, or game manager, I give him some slack when it comes to filling out the staff. It can take some time to establish yourself, and your authority.

It can be a catch-22 situation when trying to attract coaches to a team that has been crappy for decades.

 

[thebandit27]

14 minutes ago, OJ Tom said:

 

This is how I have been looking at it. Just getting upgrades at 5 positions on the Offense would be huge, and not very difficult to achieve. 

 

I don't think it's enough to put them where they need to be...IMO, this team needs a skill position player that keeps opposing DCs up at night.

 

I don't think Shady's that guy any more, and even if he ends up being able to play that role, it's not prudent to assume it.  I'd rather get one guy that opposing teams need to game plan to stop and 4 menial upgrades than 5 decent upgrades (if that makes sense).

[Prickly Pete]

13 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I don't think it's enough to put them where they need to be...IMO, this team needs a skill position player that keeps opposing DCs up at night.

 

I don't think Shady's that guy any more, and even if he ends up being able to play that role, it's not prudent to assume it.  I'd rather get one guy that opposing teams need to game plan to stop and 4 menial upgrades than 5 decent upgrades (if that makes sense).

 

That's not what I ( or the guy I quoted) said.

I want at least one big time playmaker.

Ideally they will add a top tier WR, and a top tier O-lineman, probably one from the draft, and one from, FA.

I expect 2 new receivers (TE, and or WR), 2 new linemen, and a new RB.

Edited January 2, 2019 by OJ Tom

[thebandit27]

12 hours ago, GreggTX said:

 

We'll still sign some average FA's if they are an upgrade. Several positions on the OL and at WR and TE could be upgraded with just average talent. I wouldn't be surprised to see us sign as many as 5 new starters on offense with maybe 2 of them being significant upgrades and the rest, smaller upgrades.

 

 

30 minutes ago, OJ Tom said:

 

This is how I have been looking at it. Just getting upgrades at 5 positions on the Offense would be huge, and not very difficult to achieve. 

 

Maybe I'm just reading it wrong then...seemed like you were saying that average talent upgrades would be enough.

4 minutes ago, OJ Tom said:

 

That's not what I ( or the guy I quoted) said.

I want at least one big time playmaker.

Ideally they will add a top tier WR, and a top tier O-lineman, probably one from the draft, and one from, FA.

I expect 2 new receivers (TE, and or WR), 2 new linemen, and a new RB.

 

[Mark80]

On 1/1/2019 at 9:16 AM, racketmaster said:

Brandon Beane indicated that the Bills would be judicious in their approach to free agency this year and I think this is the right approach. They have "taken their medicine" and now have the ability to spend at will, but if they were to do that we would end up back in salary cap jail soon enough. The Bills just went through "bankruptcy" and their debts have mostly been discharged. Now what? Do you stick to a plan of spending wisely and staying in budget or do you go right back to overspending and put yourself in debt. 

 

By all accounts, the 2019 free agent class lacks higher end talent and has limited depth. The market would indicate that average free agents will be significantly overpaid in such an environment. Some fans remember years ago when the Bills had some cap room and decided to spend a significant amount of it on Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker. This is an example of being desperate to just fill a hole and willing to pay much more than the player is warranted. A few bad contracts like that and we will be backed up against the wall on the cap in short order.

 

As it stands now, the Bills could be tempted to spend big on average talent but it is much better to take the judicious approach Beane has talked about. Players like Hughes and Mccoy will be free agents after the 2019 season. They will have to be resigned or replaced. Those are easier decisions given their age but what about players like Dion Dawkins, Matt Millano and even Zay Jones. They have 2 years left before they hit free agency. Jordan Poyer also has 2 years left before his contract expires and what about a big ticket player like Tre White. A decision will have to be made on him after the 2019 season as to give him the 5th year option. It's around this time that extension talks will begin to avoid the franchise tag. I'd like the Bills to roll over some of the cap savings rather than foolishly spend it on average talent this year. The Bills have an opportunity to keep the space and begin signing and rewarding their own talent. Talent that fits with the locker room and schemes we run. I believe this is what Beane has in mind so let's hope he is able to remain diligent and execute this vision. 

 

With the Rookie pay scale as it is and the ever growing salary cap, it is basically a given that virtually all FAs are significantly overpaid.

 

In our current situation I am OK with overpaying them, but they have to do so with front loaded deals where the cap impact is the highest next year and then tapers off.  That flies in the face of a typical contract, but I can't see a player arguing against getting more of their money sooner.