Article - Making a case for Josh Allen as the NFL's best rookie quarterback over Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson

[GoBills808]

34 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

Allen does rank 19th in Total QBR once you adjust for his rushing. He's dead last if you isolate his passing plays, and that's taking into account drops, throwaways, type of throws, etc. I'm generally not a fan of all-in-one statistics because they're overly ambitious and just not a good way to make an argument in isolation. That's one of the reasons why I went through an entire game's worth of throws to help present better evidence. 

Then why bring it up?

[Troll Toll]

Who would you rather gameplan against, Josh Allen or Baker Mayfield? With Allen the whole field is open to be attacked on every single down.

 

To put the supporting cast in perspective, I bet if we split Josh Allen out at WR he would instantly be our best WR. How many other QBs could you say that about? He’s already our best rusher.

 

Josh is finding success with probably the worst offensive supporting cast in Buffalo in decades. Get him some tall deep threats and he’ll start throwing for 400 yards. It blows my mind that people can’t see how good he already is. We’ve watched QBs that couldn’t connect on wide open passes for 20 years. We finally have a guy threading needles and people say he isn’t accurate. Do you really want to see him check down to the RB 20 times a game like past QBs to boost his completion % while going 3 and out? 

 

 

Edited December 12, 2018 by Troll Toll

[JerseyBills]

Just now, Troll Toll said:

Who would you rather gameplan against, Josh Allen or Baker Mayfield? With Allen the whole field is open to be attacked on every single down.

 

To put the supporting cast in perspective, I bet if we split Josh Allen out at WR he would instantly be our best WR. How many other QBs could you say that about? He’s already our best rusher.

 

Josh is finding success with probably the worst offensive supporting cast in Buffalo in decades. Get him some tall deep threats and he’ll start throwing for 400 yards. It blows my mind that people can’t see how good he already is. We’ve watched QBs that couldn’t connect on wide open passes for 20 years. We finally have a guy threading needles and people say he isn’t accurate. Do you really want to see him check down to the RB 20 times a game like past QBs? 

 

 

Great points. Hes a tank, stiff arming DTs and DEs and can literally throw to any part of the field from any spot on the field. 

 

He's going to be a nightmare to prepare for with an improved oL. Totally different beast than Baker , and give him a run game on top of that? The O would be deadly. 

Next year we are instant contenders. 

[VW82]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Then why bring it up?

Because it's fine alongside other quantitative evidence. It's not like just because I don't always think ESPN QBR matches the eye test that means it's useless. They're the ones actually compiling real data and analyzing it. It's worth something alongside traditional QB rating, raw completion percentage, and the type of analysis I did. None of them are perfect, but all have value. Interesting that all four say he isn't accurate / good at passing for whatever reason. It's only when you consider what he's doing running the ball where he performs well on the whole.  

[Stank_Nasty]

So far in the last couple weeks I’ve seen actual former nfl qb’s(Quinn and Simms) talk about the lack of team around Allen and how impressive he’s actually been. Meanwhile on this board I see armchair qb’s telling us all how awful he’s been. Heck, some “fans” (jrober) even fabricating lies about certain throws, and where they ended up, to keep the narrative going.... Really solid stuff. SOLID.  

 

S. M. H. 

[PolishPrince]

51 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

I didn't miss anything. Higgins dropped a wide open 30 yard TD last week. Chubb made a crazy catch for sure.

You are still missing it. For every drop there is a fantastic catch for most teams.... Bills dropping wide open easy passes, and never making the great catches. 

[cle23]

8 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

You are still missing it. For every drop there is a fantastic catch for most teams.... Bills dropping wide open easy passes, and never making the great catches. 

 

No, you are delusional if you think teams are making crazy catches left and right. I can think of 2 catches like that for Cleveland this year.  Chubb, and Landry against the Jets. They are showing 16 drops this year. 

 

Cleveland has a better supporting cast, but it isn't like they are All Pro at all these positions.  Landry is very good. Higgins is good for 25 - 30 yards a game. Callaway is boom or bust. Njoku is crazy talented, but drops a lot of passes and couldn't block me. We are playing Perriman, a complete bust in Baltimore, a lot of meaningful snaps. 

[billspro]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Cleveland has a lot better talent around Mayfield than what is around Allen.  There isnt a single player at any skill position that would start in Cleveland over who is there now.  McCory would not start over Chubb.  None of our WR's would start over any of their starters.  Clay wouldn't start over Njoku.  And their offensive line is better than ours too.  

 

You cant just compare QB's without weighing the pieces around them.  And Mayfield isn't having to account for 85% of the offensive production himself like Allen has had to the last 3 weeks.  

 

I like Mayfield a lot, so not taking anything away from him.  But its not really a fair comparison in terms of what Mayfield has to work with and what Allen has to work with.  

 

I like Mayfield a lot and he is the better QB right now. He also started 5 years in college so he should be. They are both going to be good in 3 years but we won’t know who will be better until that time. I think Allen is going to make a huge jump between year 1 and year 2.

10 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

No, you are delusional if you think teams are making crazy catches left and right. I can think of 2 catches like that for Cleveland this year.  Chubb, and Landry against the Jets. They are showing 16 drops this year. 

 

Cleveland has a better supporting cast, but it isn't like they are All Pro at all these positions.  Landry is very good. Higgins is good for 25 - 30 yards a game. Callaway is boom or bust. Njoku is crazy talented, but drops a lot of passes and couldn't block me. We are playing Perriman, a complete bust in Baltimore, a lot of meaningful snaps. 

 

Their skill positions aren’t great but their oline is way better than ours.

[Green Lightning]

If I could have my pick of the four quarterbacks in the draft again I would still go Mayfield number 1. He clearly is the better quarterback at this point. I think he's got a huge upside. As far as the other 3, including Josh, I don't think I would change what happened in a draft.  I like Josh's upside and the other 2 haven't  even impressive, however those were two big time drives by Darnold Sunday.

[cle23]

7 minutes ago, billspro said:

Their skill positions aren’t great but their oline is way better than ours.

 

Watch Mayfield maneuver the pocket. It's amazing.  The oline in Cleveland has been much better since Jackson was fired, but we have started a 285lbs UDFA rookie at LT, and complete bust Greg Robinson at LT. The middle 3 are great, but our tackles are very weak.

[billspro]

15 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

Watch Mayfield maneuver the pocket. It's amazing.  The oline in Cleveland has been much better since Jackson was fired, but we have started a 285lbs UDFA rookie at LT, and complete bust Greg Robinson at LT. The middle 3 are great, but our tackles are very weak.

 

Allen has to deal with pressure up the middle on 50% of his snaps. There is no way to maneuver the pocket when that happens. Our oline is as bad as they come. I think Mayfield would probably struggle more than Allen if you put him on our team. Allen’s running ability is the only reason this team can move the ball.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

I like Mayfield a lot and he is the better QB right now. He also started 5 years in college so he should be. They are both going to be good in 3 years but we won’t know who will be better until that time. I think Allen is going to make a huge jump between year 1 and year 2.

 

I agree, I certainly like Mayfield and think he has the potential to be a very good QB for a long time.  Him and Allen I think are both going to have bright futures.  I also completely agree that Allen is poised to make a big jump between years 1 and 2, although to be fair I think Mayfield could too if they get the right coach over there in Cleveland.  

 

I also have confidence in McD and Beane in the draft as the last 2 are having very strong early returns.  So I think with the cap space and 10 picks, they will find a way to get some quality pieces around Allen this year on both the OL and the skill positions.  if they succeed, I really do think the Bills will win the division next year.

 

[Seventeen]

What is adjusted completion % and where can we find this stat ? 

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, PolishPrince said:

They also have a run game, and guys making spectacular catches from time to time...

https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/video/can-t-miss-play-chubb-mosses-db-for-absurd-td-catch

YEP

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[PolishPrince]

56 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

No, you are delusional if you think teams are making crazy catches left and right. I can think of 2 catches like that for Cleveland this year.  Chubb, and Landry against the Jets. They are showing 16 drops this year. 

 

Cleveland has a better supporting cast, but it isn't like they are All Pro at all these positions.  Landry is very good. Higgins is good for 25 - 30 yards a game. Callaway is boom or bust. Njoku is crazy talented, but drops a lot of passes and couldn't block me. We are playing Perriman, a complete bust in Baltimore, a lot of meaningful snaps. 

I dont think you watch the Bills games at all. I am not even asking for crazy catches. I am asking for just contested catches at this point lol. I watched the monday night game and watching Diggs come down with a jump ball just thrown up to him and he didnt even have the better position (we have 0 of these all year). Tyler lockett also making a full on layout scraping off teh ground catch for RW3... again Bills have 0 of these all year. Clay cant catch a ball with a slight wobble when he short arms it and hits him in both hands with no one within 10 yards - Allen gets blamed 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[RememberTheRockpile]

3 hours ago, MDH said:

The Bills come in at 13 with 15 drops on the season. The do throw less than most teams, so perhaps their drop percentage would be near the top. I don't feel like doing the math on that one. 

I did the math. Calculated the caught/drop ratio (number of passes caught for each pass dropped). The Bills come in at 28 with 1 drop for every 14.73 completions. Cleveland comes in 20th with 1 drop for every 17.75 completions. Jets come in 31st with 1 drop for every 13.82 completions. Arizona comes in 26th with 1 drop for every 16 completions. Seattle sits at the top at 56.75 and Jacksonville at the bottom at 10.3.

[Success]

At minimum, Allen has shown us what the Bills saw in him coming out of college.  Some  of the raw skills and instincts he has shown are incredibly rare - unlike anything I’ve personally seen before, in terms of the variety of abilities he has.

 

It’s exciting, but so much of it now is how well they develop him and the team they build around him.  It has to start with that line.  If that isn’t the most clear focus of the offseason, it will be mystifying.

[eball]

2 hours ago, cle23 said:

 

Watch Mayfield maneuver the pocket. It's amazing.  The oline in Cleveland has been much better since Jackson was fired, but we have started a 285lbs UDFA rookie at LT, and complete bust Greg Robinson at LT. The middle 3 are great, but our tackles are very weak.

 

Why are you hanging out in a Bills fan forum? Bored?