Noah Fant - TE Iowa - Should Bills pick at 8

[Sanners]

13 minutes ago, Hawkeyes38 said:

Saw Fant play every game this year. Frankly I don't see what all the hype is about. He is a not a great blocker and was often shut down late in the season. The other tight end (Hockensen) had a much better year receiving and blocking, so Fant would not be in the game when they went with a one tight end set.  Iowa being Iowa played a lot of 2 tight end sets so he did play alot but in many games had little to no impact. He is very good in the red zone but something just did not click this year. He still has all of the measurables that scouts seem to love but I just don't see him being a star. To me, he is not a first round talent as he stagnated this year.

Thanks Hawkeyes38. That is exactly what I was looking for. Based on this thread, I am definitey leaning to drafting one later in the draft. 

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

Absolutely not.  TE is a major need, but that’s way too high for a TE like Fant.  Good TE’s, like RBs, can be found in the middle-late rounds.  

 

 

Not many.

 

1st round: Tony Gonzalez, Ben Watson, Todd Heap, Dallas Clark, Gresham, Olson, Keller, Eifert, Ebron, Nloku, OJ Howard

 

2nd round: Alge Crumpler, Kyle Rudolph, Zack Miller, Gronk, Ertz, Sefarian-Jenkins, Martellus Bennett

 

3rd round: Witten, Cooley, Pope, Jermichael Finley, Graham, Kelce, Reed, Jared Cook, Austin Hooper

 

 

After that, it drops off quickly:

 

4th:  Owen Daniels, Jordan Cameron

 

5th: Celek, Jesse James, George Kittles

 

Antonio Gates (UDFA) and Shannon Sharpe (7th) are unicorns.

[Doc]

I would never take a TE 8th overall unless he was a generational talent and a complete TE.

[djp14150]

If they are too 10 they trade down and get more picks.

 

i woukd not use a top 10 on a TE

[BakersBills]

1 hour ago, BillsRdue said:

Not at 8. No TE is worth that.  Tampa drafted OJ Howard at 19 and are still looking for a payday after 2 years. He is coming on, but not a game-changer. Ebron went  10th and it's taken him 4 years and 2 teams to make any impact. Ertz and Gronk were drafted in the 2nd round.  Kelce and Cook went in the 3rd. We need a stud, game changing WR if we draft in the top 10.  OL, TE, RB stars have been found in rounds 2-5 and beyond.

 

WHAT! OJ has dominated this year

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, Doc said:

I would never take a TE 8th overall unless he was a generational talent and a complete TE.

 

Better to blow it on a "Franchise LT", right?

[CaptnCoke11]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

My Dream offseason would be as follows:

 

Free Agency:

 

1) WR - Tyrell Williams

2) The best OL available at C, RG or RT

3) Resign the guys McBeane want back 

 

Round 1 - Noah Fant

Round 2 - C or G

Round 3 - RB

 

That gives Allen a vastly improved OL. 

Shady gets a legit RB counterpart. 

WR’s - Williams/Jones/Foster/McKenzie

TE’s - Fant/Croom 

Need better WR than that.  

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Wouldn't be the worst thing but rather have OT Jonah Williams. I saw Fant 3 times and can see the talent but wasnt seeing the production. I thought his teammate TJ Hockenson was more impressive to me.

 

 

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

Better to blow it on a "Franchise LT", right?

 

Why just LT?  You could say this about any position if you get unlucky and pick the wrong guy.  But none of the top TE's playing now were 1st rounders, much less top-10, although Howard and Ebron are finally starting to play better.

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

My Dream offseason would be as follows:

 

Free Agency:

 

1) WR - Tyrell Williams

2) The best OL available at C, RG or RT

3) Resign the guys McBeane want back 

 

Round 1 - Noah Fant

Round 2 - C or G

Round 3 - RB

 

That gives Allen a vastly improved OL. 

Shady gets a legit RB counterpart. 

WR’s - Williams/Jones/Foster/McKenzie

TE’s - Fant/Croom 

 

Meh, I think we certainly need more WR help than just Tyrell.

 

If Metcalf is on the board when we pick, I don’t know how we can pass on him.  TE is rarely the impact player that validates a top 10 pick.  Even the best TEs in football rarely break 1000 yards.  So while I would love a top tier TE, I think when you are picking top 10 it’s hard to justify that pick at this position given you can find highly productive TE’s later.  Don’t get me wrong, I would love a new dangerous TE for Allen, but WR or OL makes more sense in the first IMO.  Now if no top WR or OL is still on board when we pick, sure I can support this more.

 

We need an Elite WR talent.  Having Josh Allen and that big arm throwing to this group of WRs is like having a Ferrari and trying to drive it through thick mud.  

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

O-line in the top 10 is fizzle out territory (or zero added value for the teams that draft them).

 

I think this is worth consideration.

The Colts used the sixth pick in the draft to select Quenton Nelson, a guard from Notre Dame. He has undoubtedly helped to upgrade what was once an ineffective OL that has gotten Andrew Luck battered. You may be surprised but I am not that using a high pick on a lineman can contribute to not onlyupgrading the OL but also enhancing the talents of your qb. Very often conventional thinking is not very  sound thinking. In this case situational thinking is the proper way to look at this drafting decision by the Colts. The same logic should apply to the Bills. 

[mannc]

28 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Not many.

 

1st round: Tony Gonzalez, Ben Watson, Todd Heap, Dallas Clark, Gresham, Olson, Keller, Eifert, Ebron, Nloku, OJ Howard

 

2nd round: Alge Crumpler, Kyle Rudolph, Zack Miller, Gronk, Ertz, Sefarian-Jenkins, Martellus Bennett

 

3rd round: Witten, Cooley, Pope, Jermichael Finley, Graham, Kelce, Reed, Jared Cook, Austin Hooper

 

 

After that, it drops off quickly:

 

4th:  Owen Daniels, Jordan Cameron

 

5th: Celek, Jesse James, George Kittles

 

Antonio Gates (UDFA) and Shannon Sharpe (7th) are unicorns.

Wouldn’t object to trading back and taking a TE toward end of 1st; it’s using a top ten pick that would be a mistake.

Edited December 3, 2018 by mannc

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

Why just LT?  You could say this about any position if you get unlucky and pick the wrong guy.  But none of the top TE's playing now were 1st rounders, much less top-10, although Howard and Ebron are finally starting to play better.

 

We had that discussion before, that's why i Mentioned LT (and that many here are suggesting LT in the 1st).

 

Ebron is currently tied for 5th in catches this year, 5th in yards.   OJ Howard is 6th in yards. Njoku is top 10 in catches.  That makes them some of the top TEs playing.

 

Olson is obviously one of the top TEs in the game.   Watson has been productive forever.  Ditto for Vernon Davis.   Eifert has missed games, but is very good when healthy. 

 

 

7 minutes ago, mannc said:

Wouldn’t object to trading back and taking a TE toward end of 1st; it’s using a top ten pick that would be a mistake.

 

Why is it a mistake right out of hand?  TE in the 1st hasn't been a bad bet over time.  11 of the top 20 TEs of all time (by yards) were 1st round picks.

 

Why would a miss with all those other picks they have be a mistake anyway?  Compared to other 1st round mistakes?

[LeGOATski]

He moves well for a big dude.

 

Google says he's 6'5" 240 but he doesn't look that big on the field...

 

I still wish the Bills drafted O.J. Howard.

[KD in CA]

2 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

Not at 8. No TE is worth that.  Tampa drafted OJ Howard at 19 and are still looking for a payday after 2 years. He is coming on, but not a game-changer. Ebron went  10th and it's taken him 4 years and 2 teams to make any impact. Ertz and Gronk were drafted in the 2nd round.  Kelce and Cook went in the 3rd. We need a stud, game changing WR if we draft in the top 10.  OL, TE, RB stars have been found in rounds 2-5 and beyond.

 

A lot of people here were calling for the Bills to take him at #10.

[billsfan89]

4 hours ago, dezertbill said:

Not often you find TE's that teams want to draft in the top 10, and most have fizzled out.  

 

I would say WR and OL will be two hot positions the Bills will go after.  Good TE's can be found day 2 and 3.

 

What are the top 10 tight end busts? Since 2006 there have only been two tight ends taken in the top 10. In 2006 Vernon Davis was taken at pick 6 and in 2014 Eric Ebron was taken at pick 10. Davis was for a 5-6 year period one of the best tight ends in the league and has been a pretty good player most of his career having a late renaissance in DC the past few years. Ebron might not have lived up to the billing in Detroit but he still was a top 10 player at his position most of his time there and he is proving to be a top 5 player at his position with the Colts. 

 

So out of the two tight ends drafted in the top 10 both players have been very good. Even if you expanded to just tight ends drafted in the first round its a pretty good hit rate. 

 

2017 - OJ Howard, Evan Engram, and David Njoku (Jury still out but all 3 look like they can be among the best at their position.)

2016 and 2015 - No TE's drafted in the first round. 

2014 - Eric Ebron (Good in Detroit great in Indy)

2013- Tyler Eifert (Bust, played well for a couple of seasons but just got hurt a lot.)

2012 and 2011 - No TE's drafted in the first round. 

2010 - Jermaine Gresham (Borderline, he had a pretty solid career in Cincy, good blocker consistently right around 500 yards, 50-60 receptions and 4-5 TD's but never really top 5 at his position.)

2009- Brandon Pettigrew (Borderline on this one, for 2 seasons from 2010 and 2011 he was among the best TE's in the league 70-80 receptions 700+ yards and 4-5 TD's, he also had 2 other solid seasons before injuries derailed his career.)

2008- Dustin Keller (Again Borderline, for 4 seasons he was one of the top 5-7 TE's in the league and then was playing well for a 5th year in 2012 before a catastrophic injury derailed his career.)

2007- Greg Olsen (Big hit on this one, dude is a borderline HOF player)

2006- Vernon Davis and Mercedes Lewis (Davis a big time hit borderline HOF tight end, Lewis I would say is a small hit, he was a pretty productive player for some ***** Jags teams for a 7-8 year period, he probably could have been a really good player on some better offenses.)

 

Also you have Gronk, Ertz, and Kyle Rudolph drafted in round 2 (Although the busts in round 2 are much higher.) So while I think that there exists the ability to find tight ends elsewhere its not that high of a bust rate to take one in the first round. Most of the tight ends drafted in round 1 seem to be at least top 10 players at their positions for multiple seasons. Even the ones that were borderline or busts got derailed mainly due to injury not lack of talent. 

 

So I wouldn't be opposed to drafting a tight end fairly high up, Allen needs dynamic pass catchers and I don't see Clay going forward being that type of player as he never has been. 

[Doc]

23 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

We had that discussion before, that's why i Mentioned LT (and that many here are suggesting LT in the 1st).

 

Ebron is currently tied for 5th in catches this year, 5th in yards.   OJ Howard is 6th in yards. Njoku is top 10 in catches.  That makes them some of the top TEs playing.

 

Olson is obviously one of the top TEs in the game.   Watson has been productive forever.  Ditto for Vernon Davis.   Eifert has missed games, but is very good when healthy.

 

Ebron's in his 5th season and with a different team than the one who drafted him.  He like Olsen were late bloomers, although Ebron still has a ton more to prove.  Howard is doing well.  Njoku is actually 14th in receptions. 

 

Davis was worth the pick but it took him until his 4th season to get going.  Watson is JAG but has played for 15 seasons.  Eifert was a 2nd rounder. 

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

By the way...does Noah have a sister named 'Ella'?

She's in the room, but nobody seems to be talking about her.

[Mark Vader]

4 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Yeah, but I'm pulling a Candace Bergen / Sprint commercial from years back.  'Get the most for the least'.

Looks like Candace Bergen took her own advice with the now cancelled "Murphy Brown" reboot.

[TFBillsfan]

As an avid Hawkeye fan, I’d love for the Bills to draft Noah Fant but not with the 8th pick. He should be available with their second pick though. IMO, they have to address OT or get your playmaker at WR if there with their first pick.