Bills Most Likely Playoff Chances Include AFC East Title And Home Playoff Game

[TroutDog]

2 hours ago, Bakin said:

You are probably right but you also probably said the same thing last year. 

Right up until week 17. 

 

Really? I only just recently started posting here. I don’t seem to recall saying anything of the like. 

[PittsforDave]

22 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

This coming from the guy whose every other post is some variation of this organization sucks, this team sucks, Beane sucks, McDermott sucks, or Allen sucks....

 

#potcallskettleblack

You misconstrue my points like you misconstrue the teams objective. 

 

I want this team to improve from last year. 

[billsfan1959]

12 minutes ago, PittsforDave said:

You misconstrue my points like you misconstrue the teams objective. 

 

I want this team to improve from last year. 

And they will as long as they don't take your advice

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

2 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

Jacksonville will not be a 7 point favorite if Barkley starts. In fact if Jacksonville gets blown out today, the Bills will be favored if Barkley starts. The line is assuming the Bills are throwing a rookie against that defense. I think you will see the end of Jacksonville today. Six straight losses, out of playoff contention. They will pack it in. Just like the Jets.

 

 

you may need to rethink your prediction.

 

the jags have held the steelers to 66 yds and have shut them out in the first half 9-0.

[Gettysburg]

2 minutes ago, no name said:

 

 

you may need to rethink your prediction.

 

the jags have held the steelers to 66 yds and have shut them out in the first half 9-0.

 

I thought Jacksonville would lose like 21-3 or something like that but Jacksonville is obviously playing for their life today.  I still cant see Jacksonville scoring on the BIlls and I can see the Bills feasting on Bortles turnovers. My concern is they start a rookie. I don't think you can play Allen against this defense.

[KD in CA]

This thread is as much a November tradition here as stuffing and cranberries.  All the OP was missing was the "Hear me out" opening.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

Jacksonville will not be a 7 point favorite if Barkley starts. In fact if Jacksonville gets blown out today, the Bills will be favored if Barkley starts. The line is assuming the Bills are throwing a rookie against that defense. I think you will see the end of Jacksonville today. Six straight losses, out of playoff contention. They will pack it in. Just like the Jets.

 

Well as was pointed out earlier, you're either a troll , 12 years old, or an idiot.  If Barkley started, the line may drop to 6 or 5.  If they announced I was starting a QB next week for the Bills the line wouldn't move more than a couple points no matter what happens, lines don't change by 7 points. Maybe if they announced Arron Rodgers was starting for Buffalo it might go to even but even then maybe!

[Iron Maiden]

31 minutes ago, Gettysburg said:

 

I thought Jacksonville would lose like 21-3 or something like that but Jacksonville is obviously playing for their life today.  I still cant see Jacksonville scoring on the BIlls and I can see the Bills feasting on Bortles turnovers. My concern is they start a rookie. I don't think you can play Allen against this defense.

 

Were you 10% sure ?.....

 

 

[row_33]

6 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year.  They are not as crazy as one would think. I would say 10 percent chance of this scenario playing out. Beating the Patriots is the most difficult thing, but they would be on a 3 game losing streak and the Bills would be riding a 5 game winning streak. Not impossible.

 

you’d bet $1,000 on your scenario to win $10,000?

 

I can think of 100 people who would gladly bet against you.

 

 

[Playoffs?]

Ha- no playoffs this year. Come on guys. 

[freddyjj]

6 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

Before you blast this thread. The following is all that needs to happen. It is not as difficult as one would think.
 

 

The Patriots beat the Jets, lose to the Vikings at Home, then lose to the Dolphins and Steelers on the Road.  None of these are impossible.

 

The Bills need to beat Jacksonville at home, the Dolphins on the Road, the Jets at Home, the Lions at Home. None of these are impossible.
 

 

If those scenarios play out then....
 

 

The Bills (7-7) at Patriots (8-7) on December 26 would decide the winner of the AFC East as long as the Bills take care of business at home in week 17 against the Dolphins. Yes the Bills would win the tie-breaker with the Patriots based on division record. The 9-7 Bills would be 5-1 in the Division. The 9-7 Patriots would be 4-2.  The Bills would be the AFC East Champions.
 

 

Winning the AFC East would mean host a home playoff game.

 

The Bills might want to ride Matt Barkley until they lose a game. Right now he gives the team the best chance to win.

 

Is this likely. No. But it isn't as impossible as one would think.

 

Check it out for yourself on the playoff simulator.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#buf-jax-12=win&nyj-ne-12=loss&mia-buf-13=loss&ne-min-13=loss&buf-nyj-14=win&mia-ne-14=win&buf-det-15=win&pit-ne-15=win&ne-buf-16=loss&buf-mia-17=win&ne-nyj-17=win

 

 

Sorry but here's the hot coffee and cold shower to sober you up

 

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/billsstandings.html

 

AFC East Playoff Standings

	Record			Divisional Winners				Wildcard		No Playoffs
Team	W	L	T	1*	2*	3**	4**	5	6	7
Patriots	7	3	0	8%	30%	25%	24%	1%	3%	8%
Dolphins	5	5	0	<1%	1%	3%	7%	1%	9%	78%
Bills	3	7	0	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	98%
Jets	3	7	0	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	>99%

• Notes
• ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
• X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
• 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
• 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
• Table Sorting Method
• *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
• ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs

[Gettysburg]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Well as was pointed out earlier, you're either a troll , 12 years old, or an idiot.  If Barkley started, the line may drop to 6 or 5.  If they announced I was starting a QB next week for the Bills the line wouldn't move more than a couple points no matter what happens, lines don't change by 7 points. Maybe if they announced Arron Rodgers was starting for Buffalo it might go to even but even then maybe!

 

We will see in a few days. Think you are way off on this one.

[Elite Poster]

It's not impossible but 10 games need to play out a specific way which there is an incredibly low chance of happening, so hear me out guys...

[T&C]

1 hour ago, row_33 said:

 

you’d bet $1,000 on your scenario to win $10,000?

 

I can think of 100 people who would gladly bet against you.

 

I'd like to hear the first names of these 100 people... 

 

[Gettysburg]

1 hour ago, no name said:

 

 

you may need to rethink your prediction.

 

the jags have held the steelers to 66 yds and have shut them out in the first half 9-0.

 

Even better. A demoralizing loss. The Jaguars are DONE.

[MDH]

7 hours ago, Gettysburg said:

 

These odds are probably about the same as the Bengals with minutes to go pulling out the win against the Ravens in week 17 last year.  They are not as crazy as one would think. 

 

I don’t think you understand odds.

 

If every game you mentioned was a 50% chance of going the Bills way the chances of ALL of it happen is less than 1 percent. It’s about a 1 in 500 chance of it all happening.

 

And that 1/500 chance is being way generous because the games we need aren’t a coin flip. I’d say it’s closer to a 1/5000 than 1/500.

 

Cue the “so you’re saying there’s a chance!” meme.

[Gettysburg]

Just now, MDH said:

 

I don’t think you understand odds.

 

If every game you mentioned was a 50% chance of going the Bills way the chances of ALL of it happen is less than 1 percent. It’s about a 1 in 500 chance of it all happening.

 

And that 1/500 chance is being way generous because the games we need aren’t a coin flip. I’d say it’s closer to a 1/5000 than 1/500.

 

Cue the “so you’re saying there’s a chance!” meme.

 

I understand odds just fine. I don't think every game is a 50% chance. I don't see the Bills losing another home game this year. Confident they are going to win all 4. 100%.

[djp14150]

Smith broke his leg...why not Brady.....

 

buffali is just 2 games out if a WC spit si that is a possibility.

[Rockinon]

Jacksonville is the #1 rated pass defense and the #19 rated run defense.  We can beat them by running the ball and taking limited shots downfield passing.  This is a winnable game. We just need to do what we did against the Jets who are the #20 run defense. The passing game will be utilized by taking shots with our newly acquired speedsters.  We just resigned another one this week. Allen is mobile enough to avoid the rush and connect with one of these guys and that's all it will take to make the defense respect the pass.  They can't cover all of them and to me, it was very clear that Allen needs a speedster to succeed. He had none who could get separation to begin with. Now he'll have 3 guys who can get behind the defense. These shots will be limited but necessary to back the D off of the LOS.  And winning this game will be won by running the ball.

 

I don't know about making it to the playoffs, but the next game is clearly winnable.  Jacksonville is very good at disrupting the passing game, but that is really the only thing they have going for them.  Allen can also run.  He has shown that often all ready.  I think he is also the right choice to start against this team.

Edited November 18, 2018 by Rockinon

[goldenboy81]