Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 12 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said: Bills get first pick in the 2019 draft, select either Bosa or Oliver... https://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2018/2018-staff-predictions Before anyone gets too worked up, might be helpful to take a gander at their 2017 predictions compared to what happened 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreggTX Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 I don't know about drafting a DT with the 1st pick. If there's a good QB available and we actually do get the 1st pick, I think we'll trade down and bolster the OL and WR corps first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 9 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said: Preseason is meaningless to me. I would have liked to not see Vontae Davis and our LBs play crappy, but it's really pointless. The main reasons I'm predicting a bad season is QB and schedule. By the time the schedule improves Allen will be getting his 1st start. It's a recipe for a long season. Which is fine IMO. It's about developing Allen. Next year will be much better. Talent just isn't there right now to make up for QB mistakes. What makes you think next year will be better? How many FAs can we sign to improve the team? Who will be available? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midwest1981 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Domdab99 said: What makes you think next year will be better? How many FAs can we sign to improve the team? Who will be available? I’m not bullish on 2018 whatsoever and having gone game by game through all 256 games (handy little website posted below helps you quickly do that) I have us finishing 3-13 and receiving the top pick in the 2019 Draft. But it’s reasonable to assume we’ll make strides, be they sizable or incremental, next year because A) we won’t be allocating 30% of the cap to players no longer here, B) we will be concertedly addressing the offense (which other than Allen) was ignored this spring with copious cap space (FTR, a couple of targets I expect Buffalo to look at are Buccaneers’ guard Ali Marpet and Falcons’ RB Tevin Coleman), C) having a top-3... and top-35 pick... and ten picks overall... could severely enhance our talent base, and D) we’d be playing a 4th-place schedule (Raiders and Colts?) while the AFC East gets the NFC East next year, which is no cakewalk because NO division in the NFC is but it’s a little less rough than the NFC North. I don’t see us making STEEP progress next year but I definitely expect/project progress. https://playoffpredictors.com/Football/NFL?L=Aw18ZXTt-DFOS1b0ckA Edited September 8, 2018 by Midwest1981 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 nice post...I just hope that someone like Marpet chooses the Bills. We need at least twoof the OLmen we have now to get better for the Bills to have any chance of being decent the next 3 years. Because, they're not going to be able to replace them all. Dawkins we keep, sure. He's actually fine. The others are a disaster. As long as Peterman is playing, I don't expect much, nor will I get too excited...he's a placeholder and the Bills aren't actually trying until Allen gets on the field. I don't know, maybe I'm wrong and the OL is much better than we're expecting and Peterman becomes Alex Smith. But I'm not counting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 13 hours ago, ALF said: Walter mock draft has Bill's #1 DT Oliver , Tampa #2 Bosa http://walterfootball.com/draft2019.php I doubt it unless the OL is really bad. Talent-wise they are a 2-4 win team...........but Jauron ball has a way of causing ambitious opponents to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: Talent-wise they are a 2-4 win team...........but Jauron ball has a way of causing ambitious opponents to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Badol, could one persuade you to expand a bit on why you apparently see a parallel between McDermott and Jauron, at least as far as playing/coaching style? I don't see it, but I respect your perspective so I'd like to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 15 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said: The Bills will be all time bad. This really could be an 0-16 team. It's amazing that there is a person in this world that actually thinks this. You are going to be absolutely wrong. I'm pretty confident of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 3 hours ago, GreggTX said: I don't know about drafting a DT with the 1st pick. If there's a good QB available and we actually do get the 1st pick, I think we'll trade down and bolster the OL and WR corps first. I think if they have the opportunity to improve their pass rush they will definately do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 The defense will carry the team to 6 wins somehow. I just feel that the bend don't break thing will pull a few games out of the teams ass. I think that IF (And I don't think this will happen) the Bills do get the number 1 pick I think they either go Bosa or trade down to a team looking for a QB. I am not sure if there is a top QB prospect projected to be out there but if one emerges as a legit top pick then the Bills will be in a good position to trade away that top pick to a team looking for their future QB. The Bills could Easily score a 1st in 2020, a 2nd in 2019, a 3rd in 2020 plus additional compensation to trade down if that scenario were to pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 3 hours ago, MJS said: It's amazing that there is a person in this world that actually thinks this. You are going to be absolutely wrong. I'm pretty confident of that. Since there have been what 2 winless teams in history, you're probably right. It's a really bad football team with a tough schedule. It sets up badly for the Bills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Before anyone gets too worked up, might be helpful to take a gander at their 2017 predictions compared to what happened I think there was some factor of statistical anomaly with turnovers that bumped an extra couple wins but you can’t count on repeating. Especially without a roster that’s particularly well built to create them (no major pass rush, offense doesn’t put pressure on opposing offenses to take risks). We also probably turn the ball over more this year. without going game by game I’d say the bar napkin is 6 coin flip games (figure 3-3) and 10 we are underdogs (say 3-7).... if we catch most of the lucky bounces (I know as a bills fan it’s near sacrilege to say we had luck on our side) you couldsee a.500 type season ala last year. Shady rolls an ankle early, Murphy sucks and white has any regression at all and it could be really ugly really fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 I think we will contend for a wildcard spot and Allen won’t see the field once this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Badol, could one persuade you to expand a bit on why you apparently see a parallel between McDermott and Jauron, at least as far as playing/coaching style? I don't see it, but I respect your perspective so I'd like to hear Since I also see McDermott as much like Jauron, I'll give you my reasons which are that both Jauron and McDermott were/are conservative, defensive-minded HCs who believed/believe that work ethic and team work trump talent. They both are "my way or the highway" coaches, and are more than willing to send talented players packing rather than put the good of the team ahead of having players who fit their mold around. They both play far too much not to lose rather than to win, although McDermott at least tries to win games rather than playing not to lose by too much. Both discount the importance of the offense, and both seem to prefer improve the defense with only token improvements to the offense. Both use their influence over personnel decisions to draft for need rather than talent. Both also rely heavily on players who played for them previously to fill team needs rather than giving younger/more talented players chances. McDermott is a significantly better game day HC than Jauron ever was, but the similarities are depressingly close. 1 hour ago, NoSaint said: I think there was some factor of statistical anomaly with turnovers that bumped an extra couple wins but you can’t count on repeating. Especially without a roster that’s particularly well built to create them (no major pass rush, offense doesn’t put pressure on opposing offenses to take risks). We also probably turn the ball over more this year. without going game by game I’d say the bar napkin is 6 coin flip games (figure 3-3) and 10 we are underdogs (say 3-7).... if we catch most of the lucky bounces (I know as a bills fan it’s near sacrilege to say we had luck on our side) you couldsee a.500 type season ala last year. Shady rolls an ankle early, Murphy sucks and white has any regression at all and it could be really ugly really fast. The AFC is really sucky again this season, so that might give the Bills some hope. Only the Pats and Steelers are considered real SB contenders. Most of the top teams in the NFL are in the NFC against this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 23 minutes ago, SoTier said: Since I also see McDermott as much like Jauron, I'll give you my reasons which are that both Jauron and McDermott were/are conservative, defensive-minded HCs who believed/believe that work ethic and team work trump talent. They both are "my way or the highway" coaches, and are more than willing to send talented players packing rather than put the good of the team ahead of having players who fit their mold around. They both play far too much not to lose rather than to win, although McDermott at least tries to win games rather than playing not to lose by too much. Both discount the importance of the offense, and both seem to prefer improve the defense with only token improvements to the offense. Both use their influence over personnel decisions to draft for need rather than talent. Both also rely heavily on players who played for them previously to fill team needs rather than giving younger/more talented players chances. With one draft under Beane's belt, I'm not sure how one can reach any conclusion about need vs talent or about "token improvements to the offense". We drafted a QB with the highest 1st round pick that the Bills have ever used at that position. Last year the 2nd and 3rd round were used on offense, with an additional 3rd round used to bring in a WR. I don't think that's tokenism. Whether it's correct talent evaluation is more the question. I think "talent vs need" is BS. I don't think any team absolutely places talent above need. In a rare case where there is a player considered a generational talent available when you pick, but he's not the strongest need your team has and there's a talented player available....maybe. But usually the case is, you have talented players A B C and D, and scheme and personal qualities factor into your ranking of them....maybe you have C and B ranked above D ranked above A, C and B are pretty close, and B fills a position of need, you take B. What bothers me is when there are players who are consensus strong talents on the board and the Bills go off to draft TJ Graham or Torell Troup or something. Anyway, I don't think there can be an argument that both Allen and Edmunds have lots of talent, or that factoring need into the draft choices made sense there. The question is more, was the talent evaluation (which appears to have personal factors strongly weighted) correct? 25 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: I think we will contend for a wildcard spot and Allen won’t see the field once this year. That would be fine. 23 minutes ago, SoTier said: The AFC is really sucky again this season, so that might give the Bills some hope. Only the Pats and Steelers are considered real SB contenders. Most of the top teams in the NFL are in the NFC against this season. I don't know who is doing the considering, but the Jags played for the conference championship last year, they beat the Steelers rather handily in the division round at home in a game that was not as close as the score appears. I don't think they're conceding that they somehow got worse. I would consider them legit SB contenders despite their Jauronesque HC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McBean Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 We are going to suck for sure. If we pick #1, we better trade out. Soooo many holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 18 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Badol, could one persuade you to expand a bit on why you apparently see a parallel between McDermott and Jauron, at least as far as playing/coaching style? I don't see it, but I respect your perspective so I'd like to hear Man.......there are TONS of comparison points. But some of the basic, bigger ones: 1)Offensively-challenged defensive HC's. 2) Utilize bend-don't-break defenses and deliberate offenses to shorten games and ideally create turnover opportunities while not turning the ball over themselves. But the biggest thing they share in common is this belief that character(which they ultimately define as trusting THEM) dwarfs talent in importance. And while there is truth to it in some degree.....it is of course a TEAM game....the problem is that you gotta' be a GREAT HC or have a GREAT personnel department to operate at a championship level with a "simplify and synergize" agenda. Ultimately the NFL is a matchup league...............to win big you've either gotta' win matchups with talent or with coaching. During Jauron's stay the Bills didn't really draft exceptionally poorly........and yet at the end of his reign their roster was decimated because they had created tons of excuses to cut bait on talented players and then predictably failed to achieve the necessary 100% hit rate to replace them.....let alone making the roster BETTER. We've seen a similar willingness to discard talented players for returns ranging between nothing and not-likely-to-provide-replacement-value level picks and/or players. They even inherited somewhat similar roster demographics and then to the shock of almost everyone chose to let prime-age players go rather than keeping them and growing with them..........and were left without enough chips to cover those losses plus the veteran attrition etc.. To me........the biggest DIFFERENCE between the two is probably just that McD inherited a very Jauron-Ball-friendly QB in Tyrod Taylor.........Jauron himself never had a veteran who could put up points early and then string together long, turnover free drives to protect leads. So back to the matchups.........without the personnel edge the matchup victories need to come from the sidelines. Neither Jauron or McDermott have ever struck me as brilliant strategists, tacticians or in-game decision makers. I hope I am wrong and McD is a Belichick or Walsh or Holmgren or Parcells-like genius who is fox-like crazy but Jauron proved to just be a dude whose passive but "my-way-or-highway" tactics just reflected an inability/unwillingness to manage and motivate a roster full of complicated personalities. Which describes every good roster in the NFL. I am afraid that might be the case with McDermott as well. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted September 8, 2018 Author Share Posted September 8, 2018 One other important difference - McD was hand-picked by the owner and reports to him. That has many consequences, some of them good, some of them disturbing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 On 9/7/2018 at 8:56 AM, TheTruthHurts said: The Bills will be all time bad. This really could be an 0-16 team. Anyone disagree with me now. I love the Bills, just not this years team. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted September 9, 2018 Author Share Posted September 9, 2018 Homers 0, National Media 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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