Should we Believe it when the National Media says the Bills will be the Worst in 2018.

[teef]

wait...i haven't seen it...

 

 

 

 

 

oh mykidsdad!

[nedboy7]

With this O-line the sky is the limit baby. 

[thurst44]

6 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

Even with a better roster without clear, glaring weaknesses at critical spots like along 4/5th’s of the offensive line, WR, and QB (until/unless Allen ascends) the Bills wouldn’t likely thrive this year against a schedule that’s empirically the toughest in the first-half of the league: 5 of our first 7 on the road, home game #3 is in primetime against the Pats, and every opponent in the first-half has either highly realistic Playoff- if not championship- aspirations except for the Colts, who get back Luck.

 

This year isn’t fundamentally about our record, IMO. It’s about Allen showing development and demonstrating genuine promise. With a top-5 pick (and top-37 pick... and top-70 pick, two 4th’s, etc.) this spring, plus $80 million in cap space (with the ability for that to approach $95 million with some releases like then 31-year old McCoy and Hughes) 2019 will be a more litmus test for where we are as a franchise.

I actually agree with most of this, but have to take a little issue with the "empirically" toughest schedule part. The road/home balance is indeed impossible to argue. However, tough schedules are otherwise impossible to gauge. If we're inclined to expect the worst, we think teams who were good will stay good, teams who underperformed will rebound, and every team on-the-rise will rise, even the friggin' Browns this year, apparently. It's just one of those things fans say EVERY year, turns out to be untrue most years, then fans say it again as if it hadn't been unproven the year before. That being said, you may be right this time ;). 

 

Let's look at last year. We beat the Jets, but they are just the Jets, so that proves nothing (then the Jets start strong for the rest of the first half). Then we lose to the Panthers, and they looked terrible week 1, so maybe we are who we thought we are, and now we play two heralded undefeated teams who we have no chance against, including the defending NFC Champions. We win both games, so that's impressive. As it turns out, the Broncos would not win another game for a couple months and the Falcons went on their own slide. Ok, so we have the mediocre Bengals next, but on the road (ok, that plays out as expected -- but no one would then expect that moribund team would later knock off a hot playoff contender to let us end our playoff drought). We don't know the true nature of the schedule until it plays out.

[Scott7975]

Didn’t read the article but based off the thread title...

 

yes it it is possible we could be the worst. If our D doesn’t get better in the regular season it will be close. 

[CLTbills]

Didn't they all say that last year and we ended up in the playoffs?

 

Again, Bleacher Report is just that.... a report from the bleachers. I don't put a lot of stock into what they have to say.

[RobH063]

3 hours ago, The Process said:

I see what you did there.

I believe the media as much as I believed Bill Clinton....when he sternly looked into the camera and said "I did not have sex with that woman.....". 

Are you sure about that? IIRC he had sex with her dress.

[billsfan_34]

5 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I don't really follow other teams as much as I'd like. So, the question that crosses my mind is: Who's worse?

I still think the Browns are a hot mess- Hue, Greggo, and Todd scream power struggle, chaos, and toxicity!

53 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Same. My pre-season predictions since 2012 by year:

 

2012 - Predicted: 9-7; Finished: 6-10

2013 - Predicted: 7-9; Finished: 6-10

2014 - Predicted: 8-8; Finished: 9-7

2015 - Predicted: 10-6; Finished: 8-8

2016 - Predicted: 7-9; Finished: 7-9

2017 - Predicted: 8-8; Finished: 9-7

 

 

 Not too shabby !

[SteveFreeman22]

6 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I don't really follow other teams as much as I'd like. So, the question that crosses my mind is: Who's worse?

 

jets, dolphins, colts, broncos, raiders, Washington, bucs, bears, seahawks, cards,

[zonabb]

3 hours ago, The Process said:

I see what you did there.

I believe the media as much as I believed Bill Clinton....when he sternly looked into the camera and said "I did not have sex with that woman.....". 

And I believe Bleacher Report has more credibility than anything that steamy pile of orange excrement squatting in the White House says. If you want to play "Which president is the biggest liar" you shouldn't let your red side show by going to the Clinton card, that's a weak deflection from the current state of deception, lying, and treachery we're currently staying with. But then again, with an avatar of one of the least educated state in America, I expect such normative nonsense. And yes, Clinton lied. They all do. 

[row_33]

46 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Didn’t read the article but based off the thread title...

 

yes it it is possible we could be the worst. If our D doesn’t get better in the regular season it will be close. 

 

it's hard to be the worst if you are honestly trying

 

the Bills are trying

 

maybe that makes it all worse though

 

14 minutes ago, SteveFreeman22 said:

 

jets, dolphins, colts, broncos, raiders, Washington, bucs, bears, seahawks, cards,

 

it's been such a free ride of suck having the Jets and Fish not doing much either for 2 decades

 

 

[BarleyNY]

I’m a fan of moving predictions. You make your initial prediction and then carefully and constantly revise it as new information comes in. As of today the Bills 2018 season looks pretty bleak. OL, QB, WR, pass rush (outside of Hughes) and CB (outside of White) are all big concerns individually, but collectively point to a very poor season ahead. But that’s not definitive.  Any of those players or groups of players could surprise or gel. If/when I see that I’ll revise my expectations.  Not before. I’m a “show me” guy.  I only give credit when it’s earned. 

[CountDorkula]

39 minutes ago, CLTbills said:

Didn't they all say that last year and we ended up in the playoffs?

 

Again, Bleacher Report is just that.... a report from the bleachers. I don't put a lot of stock into what they have to say.

Unless they are talking good, about the Bills, then we can say how smart they are. 

[Dr. K]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If they are overly negative - then yes. I confess from being pretty sure 3 weeks ago that this team's floor was about 6 wins to believe it may be closer to half that. That doesn't mean I am predicting 3 wins.... but some of the question marks we had 3 or 4 weeks ago are now more significant worries:

 

- can Vontae Davis match EJ Gaines' production at the RCB spot?

- do we have enough receiving talent after Kelvin Benjamin?

- is our offensive line capable of giving any of our QBs the time needed to make throws?

- is Trent Murphy healthy enough to be the bump our pass rush requires?

- are we getting a totally committed, all-in, version of Star?

- can one of the QBs separate from the pack?

 

At the start of training camp those were all genuine questions that were discussed on this board and elsewhere. Fair questions. I know camp and pre-season are camp and pre-season but can anyone honestly say that they feel better about any of those scenarios now than they did 5 weeks ago? I'd be lying if I said I did.  

 

I'm worried. Much more worried than I was at this time last year. I think this season could be rough. I'm not going to panic if it is I still believe in the coach and am still willing to give Beane the benefit of the doubt (Allen is massive for him) and we could still be on the right long term trajectory even if this season is rough. But it is fair to be concerned at this stage. More than fair in my mind. 

 

 

No it didn't.  

I still have not been convinced by Beane's personnel moves that he consistently knows what he is doing. I admit he has a plan and sticks to it but I'm not convinced it's a good plan. We've essentially switched out Dareus for Louteleli and Watkins for Benjamin, for instance. Did this improve the team? Was it smart to expect Murphy to be the answer at defensive end? Was letting Brown and Ragland go really the best way to improve the linebacking?

 

As you say, how Allen pans out will be huge in determining whether Beane is a success. 

Edited August 30, 2018 by Dr. K

[row_33]

 

 

1 hour ago, CLTbills said:

Didn't they all say that last year and we ended up in the playoffs?

 

Again, Bleacher Report is just that.... a report from the bleachers. I don't put a lot of stock into what they have to say.

 

Dear Mr Stats:  "what does it mean when stats or surveys say it's correct within 95%?"

 

Answer:  that's the built-in cushion of picking the Bills to miss the playoffs for 20 straight years.  They will make it once.

 

 

Edited August 30, 2018 by row_33

[SoCoBills]

No but we should believe our eyes when we see that we are struggling to get pressure on the quarterback or keep our own QBs off their backs. Can Hughes, Murphy, Lawson, Alexander etc get some pass rush going? Can we find a way to protect whoever is under center? These are the questions I’m struggling with right now.  

 

Roster cuts and potential upgrades becoming available could change the outlook somewhat. 

 

This is is a less sexy concern but this is honestly way higher on my concern list than who is actually under center week 1.

Edited August 30, 2018 by SoCoBills

[RyanC883]

2 hours ago, Trogdor said:

Is there any actual evidence that they are working well together? If this team slips to 5 wins, what is different from when Mularkey was here? I keep seeing posts that talk about the stability now, but there are signs that it's the same dumpster fire as before. 

 

Yes.  We arguably have the two most important positions on the team set going forward: QB (Allen eventually with Peterman as backup) and MLB.  You can build around those guys.  Just need to get competent O-line and D-line play.   The secondary is solid, RB's are solid, and WR's will be okay if the line can give anyone time to pass.  

 

The building blocks are there.  We also have a OT in Dawkins.  Another important piece.  Just need to keep building.  Will take another draft and FA period, but I think we get it done.  

 

We are not chasing "star" players who provide little game winning value like TO.   We have gone after guys who come in and make the team better both in FA and the Draft (Poyer, Hyde, Allen, Edmunds, Phillips, Dawkins, White, etc.)  

 

 

1 minute ago, SoCoBills said:

No but we should believe our eyes when we see that we are struggling to get pressure on the quarterback or keep our own QBs off their backs. Can Hughes, Murphy, Lawson, Alexander etc get some pass rush going? Can we find a way to protect whoever is under center? These are the questions I’m struggling with right now.  

  

Roster cuts and potential upgrades becoming available could change the outlook somewhat. 

  

This is is a less sexy concern but this is honestly way higher on my concern list than who is actually under center week 1.

 

I think pass rush will have to be fixed with roster cuts and next year in the draft and FA.  Finally cap space.  

[row_33]

9 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

Yes.  We arguably have the two most important positions on the team set going forward: QB (Allen eventually with Peterman as backup) and MLB.  You can build around those guys.  Just need to get competent O-line and D-line play.   The secondary is solid, RB's are solid, and WR's will be okay if the line can give anyone time to pass.  

 

The building blocks are there.  We also have a OT in Dawkins.  Another important piece.  Just need to keep building.  Will take another draft and FA period, but I think we get it done.  

 

We are not chasing "star" players who provide little game winning value like TO.   We have gone after guys who come in and make the team better both in FA and the Draft (Poyer, Hyde, Allen, Edmunds, Phillips, Dawkins, White, etc.)  

 

 

 

"set at QB"

 

okay....

 

that's still not anywhere near elite or even franchise QB.

 

 

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

I'm not all doom and gloom but the last two games cause legitimate concerns especially on the Offensive and Defensive Lines.  We seem to get bullied and pushed around quite a bit. A scheme, game plan and good play calling can help mask some of the deficiencies but when your talent level is significantly lower than your opponent, chances are you will lose.

[Kirby Jackson]

I mean, I don’t know if the Bills will be the worst team in football. I also don’t know how anyone can objectively look at this team and expect to be good? That is okay. If Allen can play and Edmunds can play, the future is bright. The Bills are going through a rebuilding phase. Next year, it should be complete (or close to it). I don’t care if they are bad now as long as a year from now they look like a team on the rise. That is what “process” is all about.

[Trogdor]

20 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

Yes.  We arguably have the two most important positions on the team set going forward: QB (Allen eventually with Peterman as backup) and MLB.  You can build around those guys.  Just need to get competent O-line and D-line play.   The secondary is solid, RB's are solid, and WR's will be okay if the line can give anyone time to pass.  

 

The building blocks are there.  We also have a OT in Dawkins.  Another important piece.  Just need to keep building.  Will take another draft and FA period, but I think we get it done.  

 

We are not chasing "star" players who provide little game winning value like TO.   We have gone after guys who come in and make the team better both in FA and the Draft (Poyer, Hyde, Allen, Edmunds, Phillips, Dawkins, White, etc.)  

 

 

 

I think pass rush will have to be fixed with roster cuts and next year in the draft and FA.  Finally cap space.  

We have no idea if QB or MLB is set. MLB looks more promising at this point. The secondary is very thin, the RB's are old, and the WR group is terrible. Poyer and Hyde were the previous GM and Dawkins still has a lot to prove. Everyone is selling these possibilities as though they already happened. It might be that they work well together and we will see it in the next couple years, or this could be one of the worst Bills teams and we wasted our chance to get a good QB. Only time will tell, but the state of the team right now is terrible.