BuffaloHokie13 Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 6:24 PM, C.Biscuit97 said: Josh Allen is big. Carson Wentz is big. Josh Allen can throw far. Wentz can throw far. Allen went to an obscure College in a northern state where not many people live. Wentz went to an obscure college in a northern state where not many people live. Thus, Allen = Wentz. Analytics Expand To be fair, their measurables are nearly identical. And they played in the same college system under the same coach. The real question is how comparable they are between the ears.
Hue5711 Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 Does anyone have a dataset or data source? I can produce Tableau dashboards to do your own analysis.
Fadingpain Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 4:57 PM, billspro said: Josh Allen will not look good on analytics. There is no system that is perfect. Allen is an elite talent and has a good chance to be an exception to all analytics. Expand No, that's just you hoping he is successful and wanting him to be successful. Actually, he has a really good chance of busting out of the NFL in a few years.
TigerJ Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 It's statistical analysis. Of course, it's a lot more detailed than college completion average, but it's still an analysis of a current player based on his college statistics as compared with the college statistics of past QBs. That is what gives you the overwhelming odds that Allen will bust. I get that he was a very high risk pick, but past statistics don't necessarily determine the future, only sets odds for the future. Since Allen is a Bill, and no amount of statistical analysis is going to change that, I choose to hope for the best, that his natural gifts, propensity to work his tail off and a wise coaching staff can help him beat the odds.
Fadingpain Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 6:47 PM, TigerJ said: It's statistical analysis. Of course, it's a lot more detailed than college completion average, but it's still an analysis of a current player based on his college statistics as compared with the college statistics of past QBs. That is what gives you the overwhelming odds that Allen will bust. I get that he was a very high risk pick, but past statistics don't necessarily determine the future, only sets odds for the future. Since Allen is a Bill, and no amount of statistical analysis is going to change that, I choose to hope for the best, that his natural gifts, propensity to work his tail off and a wise coaching staff can help him beat the odds. Expand This is a perfectly acceptable approach no doubt adopted by many Bills fans. But in the context of the "Was Allen a good pick?" discussion, it's a copout. "Do we want Allen to succeed?" is a topic for one thread, "Will Allen succeed?" is a different topic for a different thread. 1
nero1 Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 Just looked at Kelly's NFl career completion percentage. I am sure you are all aware that his carreer stats are 60.1% and that for the majority of the career he wasn't over 60% generally 58-59% range. I suspect many of you fans are from this drought era, and have been brought up to believe only stats, but stats alone don't win football games, players do. 1
Soda Popinski Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 I'll just defer to this FO knowing a lot more about this than I ever will. Daboll was with the Patriots and Alabama, he's worked under Saban/BB. Beane and McDermott have had success before through drafting. Last year's draft was pretty good considering we got a LT in the 2nd round, got a runner up candidate for DROY and hopefully a WR who can make a major contribution this season. I love the Edmunds/Phillips picks. In fact i love pretty much every pick other than Allen, so I think the issue is me not knowing more than them picking the wrong guy.
cba fan Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 4:55 PM, Like A Mofo said: Question: I hard one draft expert on WGR a few days ago state 'The analytics suggest that Josh Allen will not become a franchise QB' What analytics is he referring to? Anyone know where they are available? Thanks in advance Expand Analytics does not to my knowledge factor in the fact Josh Allen throws the ball much further in the air and it effects his accuracy. Can't find it back but a link showed Allen throws the ball further than others in the air before it hits a receiver. He sounds like a downfield thrower and we have wanted that for years.
Mickey Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 5:59 PM, Elite Poster said: He was a 6th rounder and he is why QBs like Jimmy Clausen and EJ Manuel go early now. And how he crumbles under pressure. And how he is bad against the blitz. And how he leaves more clean pockets than the other top 4. And how his adjusted completion percentage was still the worst. And how he actually had the lowest drop rate out of the big 4. And how he had the worst completion percentage in passes under 15 yards. And how.... He's our guy and I will support, but a lot of glaring issues that the staff ignored or didn't care about because he can make plays nobody else can. You can usually tell how bad a guys performance was based on the amount of excuses that need to be made for them. Expand With that kind of "support", who needs detractors? 1
Billsflyer12 Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 7:10 PM, cba fan said: Analytics does not to my knowledge factor in the fact Josh Allen throws the ball much further in the air and it effects his accuracy. Can't find it back but a link showed Allen throws the ball further than others in the air before it hits a receiver. He sounds like a downfield thrower and we have wanted that for years. Expand If true, he is terrible at it.
GoBills808 Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 4:55 PM, Like A Mofo said: Question: I hard one draft expert on WGR a few days ago state 'The analytics suggest that Josh Allen will not become a franchise QB' What analytics is he referring to? Anyone know where they are available? Thanks in advance Expand SBNation had a write-up here: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons 1
Sky Diver Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 4:55 PM, Like A Mofo said: Question: I hard one draft expert on WGR a few days ago state 'The analytics suggest that Josh Allen will not become a franchise QB' What analytics is he referring to? Anyone know where they are available? Thanks in advance Expand It was either the dart board or the roulette wheel. I'm not certain.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 4:55 PM, Like A Mofo said: Question: I hard one draft expert on WGR a few days ago state 'The analytics suggest that Josh Allen will not become a franchise QB' What analytics is he referring to? Anyone know where they are available? Thanks in advance Expand All this qbase does in my view is give insight into how good a QB and his respective college team was. Based on the list and ranking I’ve seen, it is not predictive at all. What it did was list a bunch of QBs that had solid college careers. A number of them, logically went on to have decent NFL careers. there is no revelation here, just some smoke and mirrors to try and sell a “model”
Kemp Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 6:17 PM, BillsFan4 said: Wonder if it's the same analytics the Cleveland Browns relied so heavily on, that told them Carson Wentz would never be a top 15-20 QB in the NFL... Hopefully the Bills end up looking as smart as the Eagles did. Expand I had not heard that. Do you have a link concerning this?
Wayne Arnold Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 7:18 PM, Billsflyer12 said: If true, he is terrible at it. Expand Yep, terrible. 1 2
Sky Diver Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 (edited) He's always looking downfield when he is scrambling. Edited May 3, 2018 by Sky Diver
billspro Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 6:40 PM, Fadingpain said: No, that's just you hoping he is successful and wanting him to be successful. Actually, he has a really good chance of busting out of the NFL in a few years. Expand All QBs have a good chance of busting. The 1st round bust rate is around 60% for QBs. Allen has some traits that give him a chance. There are no guarantees unfortunately.
Bangarang Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 (edited) This is the part where we all try and convince ourselves that the numbers are flawed, or because Favre did it decades ago then so can Allen. The reality is that if Allen was drafted by the Jets then all the criticisms would be valid. But because he wears a blue jersey instead of green the sales pitch is on full power. Edited May 3, 2018 by Bangarang 4
billspro Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 7:42 PM, Wayne Arnold said: Yep, terrible. Expand Such a good throw
WhoTom Posted May 3, 2018 Posted May 3, 2018 On 5/3/2018 at 4:55 PM, Like A Mofo said: What analytics is he referring to? Expand It's not analytics - that was an auto-correct thing. What he meant was "anal critics." 1 2
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