Peter King: Rumors, Realities, and Ruminations on Draft Eve

[26CornerBlitz]

Peter King's Mailbag: Final Draft Rumors

By PETER KING  April 25, 2018

 

This could help your enjoyment and understanding of the draft this weekend. I asked a team in the top half of the draft—a team that wants action on its pick when its 10-minute period begins Thursday night—how it views the depth of the top half of the draft. This is what my source said:

 

• His team has 15 players with first-round grades.

• His team has 30 to 35 players with second-round grades.

• His team has about 45 players with third-round grades.

• His team has “starter” or “potential starter” grade on “about 90” players.

[Lagoon Blues]

1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Peter King's Mailbag: Final Draft Rumors

By PETER KING  April 25, 2018

 

This could help your enjoyment and understanding of the draft this weekend. I asked a team in the top half of the draft—a team that wants action on its pick when its 10-minute period begins Thursday night—how it views the depth of the top half of the draft. This is what my source said:

 

• His team has 15 players with first-round grades.

• His team has 30 to 35 players with second-round grades.

• His team has about 45 players with third-round grades.

• His team has “starter” or “potential starter” grade on “about 90” players.

That is pretty interesting to me.  I wonder if 15 for first round grades is typical or low?

[ddaryl]

its low this year

 

[LeGOATski]

I wonder if he's referring to the Bills. 

 

[Lagoon Blues]

I guess this falls in line with a few reports I have read where people stated there is more value than normal in the 2nd round this year.

Edited April 25, 2018 by Lagoon Blues

[DCOrange]

3 minutes ago, Lagoon Blues said:

That is pretty interesting to me.  I wonder if 15 for first round grades is typical or low?

It's a little low, but I think the usual number is around 20 give or take.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, LeGOATski said:

I wonder if he's referring to the Bills. 

 

 

The Bills from all reports are trying to move up. 

[TheElectricCompany]

1 minute ago, Lagoon Blues said:

I guess this falls in line with a few reports I have read where people stated more value than normal in 2nd round this year.

Yep, and that picks in the 20s are not as valuable, it's a very top heavy draft. 

[CommonCents]

Just now, TheElectricCompany said:

Yep, and that picks in the 20s are not as valuable, it's a very top heavy draft. 

Just as Breer said the other day.

[ganesh]

3 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

its low this year

 

disagree...I think 50% is about right.  In every draft,  players above 10 and beyond have mixed grades of 1st and 2nd round grades.

 

[LeGOATski]

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The Bills from all reports are trying to move up. 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2018 by LeGOATski

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, LeGOATski said:

 

 

The example he cited in the piece was the Bills moving up. 

 

And so, let’s envision teams in the top half of the first round with potentially hugely valuable picks: Cleveland (with the number four pick), Denver (five), Indianapolis (six). There’s a reason why in my mock draft I had Denver and Indianapolis trading down—because the value of quarterbacks is immense, and because the premium on second and third-round picks in this draft is similarly big. That’s why if I’m the Broncos or the Colts (or the Bucs or Bears or Niners, if Josh Rosen falls down the first round more than we think), I’m asking for two or three lower picks rather than two higher ones.

 

Example: If the Bills want Denver’s pick at five, and I’m Broncos GM John Elway, I don’t want the 12th and 22nd picks in return. I want 12, 53, 56 and maybe 96, and I’d flip a lower pick back to Buffalo. That would get the Bills what they want, a quarterback. That would get Denver the kind of depth a deep second and third round could provide—unless, of course, it’s Baker Mayfield sitting there for Elway at five, and he can’t resist the temptation.

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I wonder if he's referring to the Bills. 

 

My guess is the Colts. They’ve aggressively added day 2 picks and are looking for more. That would seem to line up with this.

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Lagoon Blues said:

That is pretty interesting to me.  I wonder if 15 for first round grades is typical or low?

 

It is. I have 19 and that is the lowest number I have had in any year I have done it. Last year I had 125 players graded in the top 3 rounds. This year to get to 125 you are right on my 4th / 5th round borderline. 

[Chuck Wagon]

Giving up 12 / 53 / 56 / 96 for 5 or 6 to land one of the QBs (preferably Rosen) would be ideal.  One team has 15 players as 1st rounders / I've heard 18, it doesn't take much for a "1st round grade" to be there at 22.  

[MrEpsYtown]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is. I have 19 and that is the lowest number I have had in any year I have done it. Last year I had 125 players graded in the top 3 rounds. This year to get to 125 you are right on my 4th / 5th round borderline. 

 

Gunner, how do you think that affects trade chart type values? I'm assuming our 12 paired with some second round picks would be what people would want in order  to trade down.

[aristocrat]

every year they say there are 20 or so first round picks.  then we get a guy like tre white who ends up being a legit first rounder available late in the first. i always find those comments about grades suspect. 

[Pete]

stockpile 2nd and 3rd round picks and stack this roster!

[thurst44]

24 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

It's a little low, but I think the usual number is around 20 give or take.

FWIW, Krabb last night on WGR justified his Pats-get-Rosen trade (ugh) by saying some teams have 30 players with first down grades, thus 49ers might be fine with 23/31, so it's always hard to know, but my sense would be a lower number of (probably)-can't-misses with a deep pool of round 2-round 3 types

[Formerly Allan in MD]

35 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The example he cited in the piece was the Bills moving up. 

 

And so, let’s envision teams in the top half of the first round with potentially hugely valuable picks: Cleveland (with the number four pick), Denver (five), Indianapolis (six). There’s a reason why in my mock draft I had Denver and Indianapolis trading down—because the value of quarterbacks is immense, and because the premium on second and third-round picks in this draft is similarly big. That’s why if I’m the Broncos or the Colts (or the Bucs or Bears or Niners, if Josh Rosen falls down the first round more than we think), I’m asking for two or three lower picks rather than two higher ones.

 

Example: If the Bills want Denver’s pick at five, and I’m Broncos GM John Elway, I don’t want the 12th and 22nd picks in return. I want 12, 53, 56 and maybe 96, and I’d flip a lower pick back to Buffalo. That would get the Bills what they want, a quarterback. That would get Denver the kind of depth a deep second and third round could provide—unless, of course, it’s Baker Mayfield sitting there for Elway at five, and he can’t resist the temptation.

If I'm the Bills, I'd seriously consider it for 12, 53, and 56, but not both first round picks.