Reed83HOF Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: Tanking has no track record of working in the NFL. There are huge differences between football and hockey , which could be one reason. If tanking were so effective the Browns should have a mantle full of Lombardis by now. And by all means are in a much better position than us right now and in the foreseeable future. Also see Luck, Andrew; in regards to a team tanking for a QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bing Bong Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, K-9 said: Edited March 25, 2018 by PetermanThrew5Picks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Just now, BuffaloRush said: He did pass on Andy Dalton. Say what you will about Dalton, but he would have been a much better choice than any of the QB’s playing QB for the Bills since then Dalton was not drafted in the first round , though. No team thought him worthy of a first round pick. I think the Bills QB problem has many causes, but one of them is simply not drafting enough players at the position. Not as much about which round they spent the pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
What a Tuel Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said: And by all means are in a much better position than us right now and in the foreseeable future. Also see Luck, Andrew; in regards to a team tanking for a QB. People have been saying that the last 4 times (yes 4) they have had double 1st rounders and a bunch of other picks. Potential is all they have until they hit on some of their picks. 11 1st round picks in 6 years. 7 aren't on the team anymore and 3 were drafted last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 1 hour ago, auburnbillsbacker said: We have only had a top 3 pick once since 1986. We are bad at being bad. ...sometimes I think we are not working on it hard enough! I get the frustration with previous regimes. I prefer the current FO to what we’ve had in the past. Time will tell if that is warranted or not. I only want to go all in on a guy they really believe in, not “pull an EJ” because we had to take a QB before we left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, What a Tuel said: So you think Bill Belichick has the same 7 out of 10 chance as Doug Whaley? That 7 out of 10 is the average, it does not define the odds. Is it worth moving up? If they think they know who they want then absolutely 100% yes. They need to be able to pick the right QB, that is their job. If they cannot do that, then they will end up with a mediocre team like Whaley did. Well...no, primarily because Belichick is able to identify talent, which is why he can pick Tom Brady in the sixth round, which is why he doesn't NEED to reach for a top-10 pick to get a QB. If you can judge and develop talent, you don't need to move up. If you can't, moving up isn't going to fix that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nedboy7 Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 But but but frencheyes guys come on! Trade everything for a frencheyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, DC Tom said: Well...no, primarily because Belichick is able to identify talent, which is why he can pick Tom Brady in the sixth round, which is why he doesn't NEED to reach for a top-10 pick to get a QB. If you can judge and develop talent, you don't need to move up. If you can't, moving up isn't going to fix that. He and the Patriots simply got lucky. Not so much when they drafted Ryan Mallett. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
What a Tuel Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Just now, DC Tom said: Well...no, primarily because Belichick is able to identify talent, which is why he can pick Tom Brady in the sixth round, which is why he doesn't NEED to reach for a top-10 pick to get a QB. If you can judge and develop talent, you don't need to move up. If you can't, moving up isn't going to fix that. What if Beane judges and identifies that Rosen (fill in any of the top 4) has that talent? Can he move up then? Why does it have to be move back for talent that everybody else missed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said: And by all means are in a much better position than us right now and in the foreseeable future. Also see Luck, Andrew; in regards to a team tanking for a QB. Ha ha , believe that the 2011 Colts " tanked" if you want to. They had a terrible QB, lost a couple close games that would have changed the draft order. The Colts won 2 games, but so did the Rams. The Vikings won 3. Were all these teams " tanking"? Some fans holding up " suck for Luck" signs doesn't equate to a tank. It's a hockey concept that has no basis in reality in the NFL. The Browns may be in a better position than the Bills. They've won 1 game in two years and have gone through a slew of QBs since the 99 season. They've been terrible for years and have nothing yet to show for it. Perhaps Dorsey can turn them around. He arrived with things set up nicely for him due to incompetence, not some brilliant strategy on the part of CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, DC Tom said: Well...no, primarily because Belichick is able to identify talent, which is why he can pick Tom Brady in the sixth round, which is why he doesn't NEED to reach for a top-10 pick to get a QB. If you can judge and develop talent, you don't need to move up. If you can't, moving up isn't going to fix that. That was wise of him to pass for 5 rounds so he could pick up more important players! A true master! He does get credit for getting him.....eventually. Or...did he just win the lottery? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 52 minutes ago, DC Tom said: I put together a post to demonstrate that there's roughly a 3 in 10 success rate of picking a QB in the top ten. I was talking about football. You chose not to, and instead whined about me insulting you. So I insulted you. You got the discussion you started. The issue with the data is that the picks aren't weighted by the quality of the players in each draft class. A 1st round pick in one year is probably a 4th round pick in another year (yes, I'm looking at you EJ) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said: Dalton was not drafted in the first round , though. No team thought him worthy of a first round pick. I think the Bills QB problem has many causes, but one of them is simply not drafting enough players at the position. Not as much about which round they spent the pick. I agree. If you look at the projections that year, I think some teams did have a first round grade on Dalton. He just fell to the second 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 They should take a guy top ten if they are in the top ten and IF a guy merits that level. Picking a QB high just to do so would be inane. Thry will do all the analysis possible. If that leads them to believe they need to move up to get a guy I think Beane will do so. But he is also smart enough to not reach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USABuffaloFan Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, Tyrod's friend said: What is interesting is that the Ravens have been competitive nearly the entirety of their franchise history. The Vikings have definitely been competitive the last three years. SO if the Ravens have been extremely competitive, in a tough division, and the Vikings have won the last three years ... doesn't that go to show you that it isn't an impossible path, but becomes so when you can't evaluate talent generally? You know what? If the Browns really f up and taken Allen or Barkley or Chubb or whatever at #1, and the Giants make it possible to get the best QB prospect in the last five years (Baker Mayfield), maybe you are right. https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-baker-mayfields-tape-numbers-say-he-should-be-no-1-overall-pick What people miss is you have to be really bad to get to top 5 picks and it needs to time with the top QB in the draft. If the draft is good for QB the price is EXTREMELY high to trade up. You also get "BILLS" fans that go from you not trading up to your not drafting a QB to fix this team. I say Bull to that because we have 9 picks, 6 in the top 96 and we could get Rudulph, Falk, Luletta and still land a Speedy WR, Evans MLB, Price G/C or whoever else we have targeted. The more choices you have the better chance you may have to land a QB. Now if you want to suck like Cleveland has for 4-5 years then maybe one day you get a chance to land a Darnold. He is the only true starter and I bet he sits 1 year behind Taylor while team learns to win again. Edited March 25, 2018 by USABuffaloFan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Who did we pass over for Dareus? THAT might have been worth a shot. UGH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Augie said: Who did we pass over for Dareus? THAT might have been worth a shot. UGH! Andy Dalton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: He and the Patriots simply got lucky. Not so much when they drafted Ryan Mallett. 4 minutes ago, Augie said: That was wise of him to pass for 5 rounds so he could pick up more important players! A true master! He does get credit for getting him.....eventually. Or...did he just win the lottery? I always thought it was lucky too. I went to look at the 2000 draft and which team picked a QB before NE chose Tom Brady. Result: Cleveland Browns (2000 record 3-13) chose Spergon Wynn. If Tom Brady was chosen by Cleveland instead.................. Results: Tom Brady leads the Cleveland Browns to a dynasty or Tom Brady is a footnote in NFL History. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Augie said: Who did we pass over for Dareus? THAT might have been worth a shot. UGH! AJ Green P Peterson and Julio Jones for starters lol At QB only Locker went in round one after Cam went 1st Edited March 25, 2018 by Boatdrinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 30 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: He did pass on Andy Dalton. Say what you will about Dalton, but he would have been a much better choice than any of the QB’s playing QB for the Bills since then So you think he should have taken Dalton at 9? Is that your argument? Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 I never said that. But while Dalton might not be franchise QB material, if the Bills did select him, we probably wouldn’t have to wait till 2017 to make the playoffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Just now, BuffaloRush said: I never said that. But while Dalton might not be franchise QB material, if the Bills did select him, we probably wouldn’t have to wait till 2017 to make the playoffs So you’re criticizing Nix for not taking a QB in the top 10 but you also agree with his decision not to as well? Did you just criticize him without actually seeing who the QBs were when he had a top 10 pick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 3 hours ago, BigDingus said: We always try the "build a strong team around a game manager" approach, and we end up with the same results. I put this on Ralph to a large degree. He was just not going to be aggressive when it came to trading up for a QB. The parade of GMs that passed through his tenure took their lead from him. Did he get more invested in the team in his later, post-SB years? Yes. But did he embrace the risk/reward of getting another franchise QB after Kelly? Nope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 (edited) 1 minute ago, Bangarang said: So you’re criticizing Nix for not taking a QB in the top 10 but you also agree with his decision not to as well? Did you just criticize him without actually seeing who the QBs were when he had a top 10 pick? If you keep up this love, maybe Buddy will let you wear his letterman jacket from 1956 Edited March 25, 2018 by BuffaloRush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 I don't see the big deal. I mean, it's not like the QB position is very important to the game of football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USABuffaloFan Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 3 hours ago, DC Tom said: Let's list all the QBs picked in the first 10 rounds of the draft since 1980: 1980s: Rich Campbell Art Schlichter Jim McMahon John Elway Todd Blackledge Jim Everett Kelly Stouffer Vinnie Testaverde Troy Aikman 1990s: Jeff George Andre Ware David Klingler Drew Bledsoe Rick Mirer Heath Shuler Trent Dilfer Steve McNair Kerry Collins Peyton Manning Ryan Leaf Tim Couch Donovan McNabb Akili Smith 2000s: Michael Vick David Carr Joey Harrington Carson Palmer Byron Leftwich Eli Manning Philip Rivers Alex Smith Vince Young Matt Leinart Jamarcus Russell Matt Ryan Matthew Stafford Butt Fumble 2010s: Sam Bradford Cam Newton Jake Locker Andrew Luck RGIII Ryan Tannenhill Blake Bortles Jameis Winston Marcus Mariota Jared Goff Carson Wentz Patrick Mahomes Not an illustrious list. Certainly not a consistent-enough list that it suggests moving in to the top 10 to select a QB is worthwhile. Between the outright busts and the number of QBs who ended up moving to other teams and being successful, there's a decent argument to be made for moving in to the top 10 to pick a "franchise QB" to be a losing proposition, as more likely than not he'll either fail or be someone else's franchise QB down the road. This shows you measurables don't mean everything. They all had those or wouldn't be top 10. Drafting team matters, OC and players matter, Leadership and football smarts matter. Unless it all lines up you lose. A later round QB would probably have failed also on those teams where these QB's failed. The teams sucked! RGII got screwed by Shanahan playing him hurt. A number of these QB's could have made it on a good team but became damaged goods and too late. The really good ones though you can tell they were going to make it. Elways, P Manning, Luck, Bledsoe, Rivers, McNabb they just felt different. I really thought Vince Young was going to be Elway again, turned out to be a Head Case and had serious depression issues. Going and winning the Superbowl is a completely different level, few have done this and those that do have great teams around them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 41 minutes ago, DC Tom said: Or it's that the game's changed that much that it really does depend more on raw skill than teamwork these days. Or we're just over-judging current active players who aren't out of chances yet over historical players (which would not be an uncommon bias.) I mean, I saw the trend, yes...but I'm leery of drawing conclusions against QBs drafted since 2010 or so. Considering the top six in the "2010s" list should be hitting their prime right now as 27-30 year olds, but only one (Newton) is playing at a consistently All-Pro level, so I'd be hesitant to judge the trend as changing all that much based on the current data. If your chances since 2000 are just as good hitting a Newton, Luck, or Wentz as they are getting a Locker, RG3, or...Bortles(?) or Tannehill(?) I guess...I think you have to pull the trigger and if you end up with a Bradford/Winston/Goff so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Bangarang said: So you’re criticizing Nix for not taking a QB in the top 10 but you also agree with his decision not to as well? Did you just criticize him without actually seeing who the QBs were when he had a top 10 pick? Nix could of traded back. ATL gave up a boatload to picks for Julio Jones. He should of known Luck, RG3 were available the following year. We stuck with Fitz. To me, that's the difference from a forward looking organization and one that "lives in the moment". Who traded with ATL, the Redskins and moved up for RG3 and would of had Luck if Peyton didn't get hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USABuffaloFan Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 2 hours ago, DC Tom said: You bolded 14 of 49 names (I would have included Carson Palmer and Vinnie GreenBalls, though, as they had reasonably good careers.) That's a 3 in 10 success rate. Given that the overall rate at which top-ten picks go to the Pro Bowl (around 50%), that's a significant indication that teams over-reach for QBs in the top 10. Plus, in this case what's being advocated in this case is moving up to the top 10, which requires the expenditure of additional resources (picks or players). So basically, the idea is that we should over-reach even more than usual on a 7 in 10 chance of a bust. All on the fallacious idea that you have to take all the shots because "you miss all the shots you don't take." Which is thoroughly retarded - you're using a form of gambler's fallacy to raise on drawing a full house on one pair, because although you probably won't draw that full house, you definitely won't if you don't call and take three cards. You really are the most misnamed poster ever. It could be argued every team that has a shot at Darnold or Rosen could use one soon. Cleveland is the only one with duplicate picks here so they could trade 4 away if great value to do this but at 4 Rosen is gone. The bottom line is the Bills don't have a choice here for those 2 guys. Anything else is game, pick 4 to 10, how much are you willing to pay for Allen or Baker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: If you keep up this love, maybe Buddy will let you wear his letterman jacket from 1956 Making sense and being logical means I love him? Are you always this dense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Just now, Bangarang said: Making sense and being logical means I love him? Are you always this dense? Im not the one trying to justify Buddy Nix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USABuffaloFan Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 2 hours ago, Bangarang said: Who should he have drafted? Jake Locker? Blaine Gabbert? Christian Ponder? After the facts no but at the time, argument is the same as it is now. We know nothing really. No for sure QB like Elway, Manning or Luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: Nix could of traded back. ATL gave up a boatload to picks for Julio Jones. He should of known Luck, RG3 were available the following year. We stuck with Fitz. To me, that's the difference from a forward looking organization and one that "lives in the moment". Who traded with ATL, the Redskins and moved up for RG3 and would of had Luck if Peyton didn't get hurt. He could have traded back but then he wouldn’t be picking in the top 10 which was the entire point of the discussion Edited March 25, 2018 by Bangarang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 I want the smartest scouts and FO, and leave all the mistakes to the other teams! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: Nix could of traded back. ATL gave up a boatload to picks for Julio Jones. He should of known Luck, RG3 were available the following year. We stuck with Fitz. To me, that's the difference from a forward looking organization and one that "lives in the moment". Who traded with ATL, the Redskins and moved up for RG3 and would of had Luck if Peyton didn't get hurt. He trying awfully hard to defend Buddy Nix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloRush said: Im not the one trying to justify Buddy Nix. No, you’re the one criticizing him for something you agree with. Not sure why but that’s the route your mind decided to go in. Just now, BuffaloRush said: He trying awfully hard to defend Buddy Nix What are you 12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 10 minutes ago, Lurker said: I put this on Ralph to a large degree. He was just not going to be aggressive when it came to trading up for a QB. The parade of GMs that passed through his tenure took their lead from him. Did he get more invested in the team in his later, post-SB years? Yes. But did he embrace the risk/reward of getting another franchise QB after Kelly? Nope... You assume there is a QB they could have traded up for. Just who was it? Cam? Wasn't going to happen. Sometimes it's just bad luck. The Bills had #3 overall pick in 2011... too bad there weren't many good QBs. The Steelers had the #11 overall pick in '04 and Roethlisberger landed in their lap. There's a bit of good fortune involved here too. Most teams with good QBs didn't move up to draft them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Just now, Bangarang said: He could have traded back but then he wouldn’t be picking in the top 10 which was the entire point of the discussion It was for the 2012 draft. Bills would of had their own #10 and ATL #22. Instead the Bills went all in during the 2011 season with Fitz giving him that big extension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 3 hours ago, BigDingus said: No, it's definitely relevant in context of our franchise futility. It also goes hand in hand with our terrible GM's, coaches, and management philosophy prior to Beane. And in terms of this board, we have yet again countless people in the "kick the ahead to next year yet again!" camp...the same people who always say "wait until next year" to draft a QB because they're afraid everyone is a bust if they're not automatically labeled the best QB of all time prior to stepping foot in the league. 100% relevant. I feel the only relevance is to any historical context one wants to ascribe to our drafting history. Period. Please show me how past regimes who ignored past QB prospects in past drafts bear ANY relevance to this regime and these QB prospects, in this draft and these teams. If McBeane are sitting there fretting over the past failures of previous administrations, they are the wrong people for the job. Somehow, I believe they aren't influenced by that in the least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 15 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: Nix could of traded back. ATL gave up a boatload to picks for Julio Jones. He should of known Luck, RG3 were available the following year. We stuck with Fitz. To me, that's the difference from a forward looking organization and one that "lives in the moment". Who traded with ATL, the Redskins and moved up for RG3 and would of had Luck if Peyton didn't get hurt. RG3 ended up a flame out- bust. I don't know if I'd hold him up as a reason the Bills don't have a QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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