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Breer: Lack of QBs in '19 Draft Putting Pressure on Teams to Get Theirs Now


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I don't buy it.


The NFL is a win now league and very fewer coaches have the time to draft a guy to sit on the bench for a year or two when the alternative is a player who can make an immediate impact right now (Barkley, Chubb, Nelson). 

 

I think each of the Giants and Broncos pass on QBs for impact players and ultimately I think the QBs go a little later than expected. 

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Just now, jrober38 said:

I don't buy it.


The NFL is a win now league and very fewer coaches have the time to draft a guy to sit on the bench for a year or two when the alternative is a player who can make an immediate impact right now (Barkley, Chubb, Nelson). 

 

I think each of the Giants and Broncos pass on QBs for impact players and ultimately I think the QBs go a little later than expected. 

 

You might not buy it, but you'd better believe NFL personnel offices are well aware of the potential QB prospects or lack thereof in the next draft.

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1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

You might not buy it, but you'd better believe NFL personnel offices are well aware of the potential QB prospects or lack thereof in the next draft.

 

They might be aware, but I don't think it'll impact this year's thinking for anyone except maybe the 3-4 teams who really need a QB. 

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4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

They might be aware, but I don't think it'll impact this year's thinking for anyone except maybe the 3-4 teams who really need a QB. 

 

There's immediate need for some and then there are long term needs that several teams have. 

Edited by 26CornerBlitz
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2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

You might not buy it, but you'd better believe NFL personnel offices are well aware of the potential QB prospects or lack thereof in the next draft.

And this is why we need to make the move. I am starting to feel it will take our 2-1's and a 2 this year plus a 1 next year. I really think the 1 next year is key and I hate to do it, but as Allbright tweeted last night (it is also in line with Badol's thoughts on which positions to prioritize in the draft); nothing trumps QB...

 

1. Passer 2. Pass rusher 3. Pass protector 4. Pass defender 5. Pass catcher --- Everyone else. *in order list of on-field importance/impact in modern game.

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This seems to be part of the QB hype machine pushed by the sports media to keep interest -- and anxiety -- among football fans high.  Since 2000, most drafts have only produced 1 decent NFL starting QB (at least on a Cutler-Flacco-Dalton-Tannehill level) from the first round.  Occasionally, drafts have produced no quality starters or multiple starters.  In some drafts, especially recently, teams have found starting QBs after the first round.

 

I really don't think NFL scouting departments are paying much attention to 2019 prospects at present, either.  They have enough on their plates getting their 2018 draft boards put together to be worrying about 2019.  :doh: 

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1 minute ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

There's immediate need  for some and then there are long term needs that several teams have. 

 

Sure, but the long term need is something teams rarely draft 1st round QBs for.

 

The Giants have made moves to upgrade their roster. They haven't taken the approach of a team that's rebuilding. Put Barkley in that backfield with Eli and a healthy Odell and you have a really good offense. 


The Broncos have one of the best rosters in the league and they just gave Case Keenum a two year $36 mil contract with $26 mil guaranteed. They're good at QB for two years and could desperately use an impact player like Nelson or Chubb. They could compete for the playoffs next year and beyond. 

 

The next team who needs a QB is Miami. Not sure if any of the guys drop that far. 


Then Arizona, and they're not mortgaging their future given how many holes they have all over their roster. 


Past those teams you really begin reaching for teams who would draft a QB in round 1. 

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4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

There's immediate need for some and then there are long term needs that several teams have. 

 

I think with the Giants, they only go for a guy who could sit 2 years (like Allen)

I couldn't see them drafting Rosen, darnold, or Baker at #2 and planning to sit him until 2020

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2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Sure, but the long term need is something teams rarely draft 1st round QBs for.

 

The Giants have made moves to upgrade their roster. They haven't taken the approach of a team that's rebuilding. Put Barkley in that backfield with Eli and a healthy Odell and you have a really good offense. 


The Broncos have one of the best rosters in the league and they just gave Case Keenum a two year $36 mil contract with $26 mil guaranteed. They're good at QB for two years and could desperately use an impact player like Nelson or Chubb. They could compete for the playoffs next year and beyond. 

 

The next team who needs a QB is Miami. Not sure if any of the guys drop that far. 


Then Arizona, and they're not mortgaging their future given how many holes they have all over their roster. 


Past those teams you really begin reaching for teams who would draft a QB in round 1. 

 

The Broncos have no long term solution despite Keenum being signed, Miami is very much interested in QB just as Arizona is with Bradford/Glennon as their top two. BTW, Arizona is not bereft of talent. 

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1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I think with the Giants, they only go for a guy who could sit 2 years (like Allen)

I couldn't see them drafting Rosen, darnold, or Baker at #2 and planning to sit him until 2020

 

I just can't see the Giants taking a QB.

 

They can get two impact players from the #2 and #34 pick to put with their FA acquisitions and getting Beckham back healthy. 

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The Broncos have no long term solution despite Keenum being signed, Miami is very much interested in QB just as Arizona is with Bradford/Glennon as their top two. BTW, Arizona is not bereft of talent. 

 

Why can't Case Keenum be the long term solution?

 

He's 30 years old...

 

And I know Miami and Arizona are interested, but are either of them in a position to move up in the draft? I don't see it. 

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8 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

You might not buy it, but you'd better believe NFL personnel offices are well aware of the potential QB prospects or lack thereof in the next draft.

 

I'm with jrober on this.  This is just media hype just like the predictions that all four of the top QBs will go in the top five picks or that six QBs are likely to go in the first round.  Just because media mavens haven't heard about a lot of collegiate QBs doesn't mean that NFL scouts haven't seen some younger QBs they like.

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1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

I just can't see the Giants taking a QB.

 

They can get two impact players from the #2 and #34 pick to put with their FA acquisitions and getting Beckham back healthy. 

 

Why can't Case Keenum be the long term solution?

 

He's 30 years old...

 

And I know Miami and Arizona are interested, but are either of them in a position to move up in the draft? I don't see it. 

 

He's a journeyman irrespective of his age.

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3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

He's a journeyman irrespective of his age.

 

And that means he can't get better?

 

Vance Joseph needs to win now or he's getting fired. Drafting a QB and sitting him on the bench for 2 or more years doesn't make any sense when the rest of their roster is as good as it is. 

 

They've got Keenum to right the ship. Get the elite pass rusher or all pro Guard and contend for the AFC West title next year. 

Edited by jrober38
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There's real gray area on this issue.  You can rationally hold various positions.  Beane has to make his best guess how likely teams like the Giants, Broncos, or Dolphins are to choose qb.  He also has to anticipate a team like the Cardinals or even the Chargers moving up to grab a future qb.  One can stipulate that most teams are in a win now mode, but that doesn't preclude a "lower odds likelihood" event where a team opts to get a qb for the future.  Browns and Jets get qb; 2 of the top 4 should be qb.  After that, it's a guess where and when. 

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16 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I just can't see the Giants taking a QB.

 

They can get two impact players from the #2 and #34 pick to put with their FA acquisitions and getting Beckham back healthy. 

 

 

I tend to believe the Giants aren't going QB either as I think their ownership is nowhere near ready to move on from Eli, they feel terrible about him being benched last year and aren't going to turn around and draft his replacement this year.  I believe they are going to take their time and evaluate every top prospect.  If they see one guy (Chubb or Barkley) as simply too good to give up, I think they stay at 2 and take the player.  If they see 2 or 3 guys on that level and Denver is willing to meet their price they move down to 5, get more picks and get a guy like like.  If they like ~9 guys with no one head and shoulders above the field, they take all our picks and go to 12, potentially allowing themselves to move back up again.

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Just now, jrober38 said:

 

And that means he can't get better?

 

Vance Joseph needs to win now or he's getting fired. Drafting a QB and sitting him on the bench for 2 or more years doesn't make any sense when the rest of their roster is as good as it is. 

 

Vance Joseph isn't making the draft selections.

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Just now, Lurker said:

Bupkis.   There are 1-2 QBs every year, so 2019 will likely be a 'typical' year.    The fact there are four, maybe 5 in this draft class is what stands out...  

 

The 2013 draft class greets you with a Big Hello!  :lol:

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3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Vance Joseph isn't making the draft selections.

 

Ugh. I don't see it.


Elway has blown picks on Osweiler and Paxton Lynch in recent years and won a Super Bowl with Peyton Manning who could barely throw the ball 20 yards and the best defense in the league. 

 

I think they gave Keenum $26 mil GUARANTEED for a reason. If they weren't trying to win now they'd have looked at a more affordable stop gap. 

 

Like the Giants, nothing the Broncos have done suggests they're rebuilding. They're trying to win now, ie the top 5 pick needs to contribute immediately. 

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Just now, jrober38 said:

Ugh. I don't see it.


Elway has blown picks on Osweiler and Paxton Lynch and won a Super Bowl with Peyton Manning who could barely throw the ball 20 yards and the best defense in the league. 

 

I think they gave Keenum $26 mil GUARANTEED for a reason. If they weren't trying to win now they'd have looked at a more affordable stop gap. 

 

Two year deal. 

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Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Two year deal. 

 

With $26 million guaranteed. 

 

And a roster that features Thomas and Sanders at WR, and the #3 defense in the NFL from last year.

 

They're ready to win now, hence why they just gave Keenum a fortune for the next two seasons. 

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13 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The Broncos have no long term solution despite Keenum being signed, Miami is very much interested in QB just as Arizona is with Bradford/Glennon as their top two. BTW, Arizona is not bereft of talent. 

 

Denver still has Paxton Lynch for at least 2 years.  Miami just extended Tannehill with a team friendly pact, so I don't see them adding a first round QB since they've created lots of holes this off season -- unless there's serious questions about Tannehill's recovery which haven't surfaced yet.   Arizona might go QB but they seem to prefer acquiring veteran QBs than shooting their wads on first round rookies.  Maybe drafting Matt Leinart made them gun shy. 

Edited by SoTier
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10 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Ugh. I don't see it.


Elway has blown picks on Osweiler and Paxton Lynch and won a Super Bowl with Peyton Manning who could barely throw the ball 20 yards and the best defense in the league. 

 

I think they gave Keenum $26 mil GUARANTEED for a reason. If they weren't trying to win now they'd have looked at a more affordable stop gap. 

 

I still have a hard time seeing Elway pass on a QB he likes, but by the same token I think they recognize their oline has been horrendous for several years, preventing them from having any sort of run game for several years and not allowing a QB any time to do much of anything.  I could see them saying Lynch hasn't had time for a fair evaluation and Keenum is the guy for now anyway, let's actually build up a running game and see what we have with either guy before we take a guy who is going to sit all year.

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Just now, jrober38 said:

 

With $26 million guaranteed. 

 

And a roster that features Thomas and Sanders at WR, and the #3 defense in the NFL from last year.

 

They're ready to win now, hence why they just gave Keenum a fortune for the next two seasons. 

 

They saw him as the best option available with the sense that Cousins wasn't in play for them. That still doesn't preclude them from looking beyond his two year window when their commitment to him ends. 

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13 minutes ago, SoTier said:

This seems to be part of the QB hype machine pushed by the sports media to keep interest -- and anxiety -- among football fans high.  Since 2000, most drafts have only produced 1 decent NFL starting QB (at least on a Cutler-Flacco-Dalton-Tannehill level) from the first round.  Occasionally, drafts have produced no quality starters or multiple starters.  In some drafts, especially recently, teams have found starting QBs after the first round.

 

The draft has become an event even without there being 3-4 QBs recognized as top prospects, even though that's rare. It's become a spectacle more so with it going to Thursday nights. The media is hyping it beyond what it should be. It's the fans, specifically those like Buffalo's who believe there will be some major action.

 

Still, the past does not predict the future and each draft is different. This one happens to feature at least a quantity of QBs not typically seen. In other years player groups like DL or WR might be strong.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Denver still has Paxton Lynch for at least 2 years.  Miami just extended Tannehill with a team friendly pact, so I don't see them adding a first round QB since they've created lots of holes this off season -- unless there's serious questions about Tannehill's recovery which haven't surfaced yet.   Arizona might go QB but they seem to prefer acquiring veteran QBs than shooting their wads on first round rookies.  Maybe drafting Matt Leinart made them gun shy. 

 

If Lynch were any good, he'd be starting heading into his 3rd season.  Tannehill has plateaued and I can easily see them investing in a 1st round QB to develop with nothing behind him.   

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3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

If Lynch were any good, he'd be starting heading into his 3rd season.  Tannehill has plateaued and I can easily see them investing in a 1st round QB to develop with nothing behind him.   

.......or they draft a real developmental QB like White in rounds 2/3 and invest in a high value non-QB in round 1.

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11 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

If Lynch were any good, he'd be starting heading into his 3rd season.  Tannehill has plateaued and I can easily see them investing in a 1st round QB to develop with nothing behind him.   

 

 

Who knows, maybe these Rudolph truthers are on to something and teams see him as a legitimate option at the top of round 2 (or trading back into round 1).  It's kind of been a recent trend for QB needy teams at the top of the draft to take one of the "blue chip" guys early and swing around with a QB later.  I could see Denver taking that path, taking Nelson to shore up their line then flipping around with a guy like Rudolph to develop behind Keenum.  As much as teams might be enamored with Rosen or Allen or even Baker, they could also say "this guy is going to get me fired if he misses, we don't have Rudolph (or someone else) THAT much lower on our board, take the elite position talent now and see who is there later".

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Just now, Chuck Wagon said:

Who knows, maybe these Rudolph truthers are on to something and teams see him as a legitimate option at the top of round 2 (or trading back into round 1).  It's kind of been a recent trend for QB needy teams at the top of the draft to take one of the "blue chip" guys early and swing around with a QB later.  I could see Denver taking that path, taking Nelson to shore up their line then flipping around with a guy like Rudolph to develop behind Keenum.  As much as teams might be enamored with Rosen or Allen or even Baker, they could also say "this guy is going to get me fired if he misses, we don't have Rudolph (or someone else) THAT much lower on our board, take the elite position talent now and see who is there later".

 

Definitely could be the case as Oakland did in 2014 with Mack and Carr.  We'll soon see, but 2019 is still a factor with front office personnel looking beyond. 

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26 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The Broncos have no long term solution despite Keenum being signed, Miami is very much interested in QB just as Arizona is with Bradford/Glennon as their top two. BTW, Arizona is not bereft of talent. 

So the Broncos have already given up on Paxton Lynch, a first round pick who’s barely played? 

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10 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Definitely could be the case as Oakland did in 2014 with Mack and Carr.  We'll soon see, but 2019 is still a factor with front office personnel looking beyond. 

 

 

Dallas did it with Zeke and Dak in 2016.  

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