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Convince Me: Why Jackson or Rudolph Should be the Pick at 12 (if no trade up occurs)


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10 minutes ago, greeneblitz said:

Defenses are a lot faster and more complex today and modern rules made it much more advantageous to be a pocket passer. Ever running QB is forced to try and be a pocket passer as defenses always catch up after a year or so of tape.

You’re speaking in absolutes that don’t support your premise.  I understand the point you are trying to make (the NFL is no longer conducive for running QBs), but this wasn’t a swaying argument or fact statement.  The same argument can be made for QBs becoming a lot faster.  The rules are definitely swayed against mobile QBs who absorb hits, but I think Jackson is the most elusive QB to come out since Vick.  Cam is fast.  He can allude some, but his size limits him and he takes incredible punishment.  Wilson is a good example of what an elusive QB can do for your team.   But he is a far more polished passer.  But here’s something to consider...  Jackson didn’t run a 40  because he was afraid his time would instantly lead teams to put him in the WR category. His trainers have reported that he has run in the low 4.3 (with rumors of crossing the 4.2 range).  That is insane and a totally new dimension for quarterbacks. 

Edited by DFT
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2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Rudolph played in a very, very, VERY weak conference, from a defensive standpoint, and was used to dominating against horrible defensive backs.  As a result, his receivers (e.g. James Washington) were able to freely run wide open most of the time.  He also comes from a college system that has NEVER produced a franchise NFL QB.

If Jackson "improved dramatically as a passer" then why does have a sub 60% completion percentage?

 

Rudolph played in a Power 5 conference. You act as if he played in the MAC or Sun Belt. Big 12 defenses look worse than they do because their offenses are so good. Their defenses looked good in their bowl games. As for the past - I don't care.

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In watching lots of film and both of their games last year I prefer Jackson over Rudolph.

 

Mason Rudolph - Big, good but not great arm, has excellent QB instincts, not much of a running threat but Delivery is relatively compact, excellent accuracy.  Seems as though he has above average leadership skills.  Concern that he played primarily in a simplified spread in a weak defensive conference and two NFL caliber receivers gave him a lot of easy uncontested completions.  Will be serviceable in the NFL, but I don't think can rise above an average roster and make it a playoff team.  I see a lot of Kirk Cousins in him as his ceiling.  Worth taking at pick 22

 

Lamar Jackson - Good height at 6'3", needs to add weight and strength in a pro environment.  Excellent arm, decent touch, not sure about him making all the NFL throws as he did not run an offense that used the deep outs at Louisville.  Mobility is huge plus.  Well schooled in playing under center, film shows he also has the unique movement inside the pocket, can shift his feet, stay in good throwing position and readjust to a new target and release.  Ceiling is a Randall Cunningham with more in-pocket discipline.  Needs one year in NFL weight room to add weight and strength.  Worth taking at pick 12.

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4 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

Someone who supports drafting Rudolph at 12, please tell me why he is a  better player than our current 5th rounder AJ McCarron?

Brace yourself...   here comes the storm of non-factual passion that only a message board can deliver....

 

Remember....   you brought this juju on yourself!

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Just now, horned dogs said:

No Juju. There is no factual basis other than he passed for more yards in college...which is not a reason.

Oh I agree totally!  I’m interested in the reasoning that’s presented, myself, but I’m also a realist in that I kinda know where people will take this.   

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I'm on the "trade-up-for-Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield-and-heck-no-to-Allen" wagon, but if I had to make a case, then I would do it for Jackson at 12. 

 

My argument would start with this:

When asked which teams he met with, the Buffalo Bills were the first team he mentioned. Jackson ran the Erhardt-Perkins offense at Louisville. That happens to be the same offense Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is scholed in. Jackson is more than confident he can command that offense in the NFL, too. http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2018/03/lamar_jackson_steals_show_at_nfl_combine_meets_with_buffalo_bills.html

 

 

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14 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

Someone who supports drafting Rudolph at 12, please tell me why he is a  better player than our current 5th rounder AJ McCarron?

 

Weird request. Explain why the Pac-12 kids or Josh Allen or Mayfield are better than McCarron.

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Why?  Because they could be the answer. Or not.  Just like the other 3 guys could be the answer.  Or not.  And you give up a lot less to stay where you are and take a guy if you don't feel there's much difference between these two and the four anointed ones.

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6 QBs worth a 1st round pick.

 

Why? Because the experts say so.

 

Why take at 12? Because hopefully at least one is left at 12 otherwise we wait again and the next draft is not a QB rich draft. Maybe 2020, 2021?

Also OBD always waits too long to pull the trigger and if they wait till 22 they will for sure again miss out because  other teams hold QB in a higher regard.

So why and how do I know this? Just look at the Bills history of QBs since Kelly.

The groundhogs day of a QB will fall from the sky, just wait, look in the sky it's a QB, it's a franchise QB coming in from the sky, one is falling to us, its about time, nope its a oops once again another team got him first.

 

Almost got it, try again

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1 hour ago, DFT said:

I disagree heavily and respectfully.  I love Petrino, but  my opinion is he left a lot of the development on the table (which is truly unlike him) and took advantage of his QBs natural athleticism. This kid has infinite untapped potential as a QB. 

 

Actually Petrino helped him develop his passing game quite a bit. Here's a really good article about it:

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2662128-the-education-of-lamar-jackson-how-louisville-qb-went-from-project-to-superstar

 

Quote

"What we did this spring was say, 'OK, we're going to work hard on throwing the ball on time,'" Petrino says. "When he took off and ran or left the pocket, I would just blow the whistle. He'd give me one of these—shrug, 'I would've run for a touchdown, Coach.' I'd say, 'I don't care. I want to see you throw for a touchdown.'


"So we just forced the issue. We took his legs away."

Edited by HappyDays
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Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Actually Petrino helped him develop his passing game quite a bit. Here's a really good article about it:

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2662128-the-education-of-lamar-jackson-how-louisville-qb-went-from-project-to-superstar

 

 

 

Love the article, but we’ll Agree to disagree.  My opinion is he developed him to fit his program.  He left a lot on the table for future development.  We haven’t even scratched the surface of what this kid can do.  I mean no disrespect to Coach P, either, because it’s so easy for me to critique the job he did, from my office, without putting in any effort outside of a key stroke, but I would have loved to see him a bit more developed, mechanically.  We’ll see though.  I’m very high on him as a developmental project.  

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5 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

Cool story. Then apparently there's nothing to discuss.

You're right it is a great story!  Unless you are an NFL scout and are correct and they're all wrong. Maybe you're Chris Trapasso.

 

There is no argument otherwise that Rudolph is so much better talent than our 5th round guy he should go with #12.

Edited by horned dogs
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I think Jackson has as good of a chance as the top 4 guys in being a franchise QB. I would be happy if Bills get him with either pick in round 1. Rudolph to me would be a solid pick with our second round picks. I also like Mike White with pick 65 if we take BPA with our first 4 picks. The Bills are much higher in Peterman than I am. But that has to be included in the overall  thought process.

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19 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

He's bigger, stronger, a better leader, throws a more accurate ball.

 

Your turn.

 

Bigger - yes

Stronger - who knows 

Better Leader - unlikely given McCarron's college career 

More Accurate - debatable 

 

Rudolph looks like a mid round prospect. He doesn't have any elite traits. 

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

And what has Mike White done to deserve 2nd round consideration? 

 Good prototype in terms of height and weight.  Good if not spectacular completion percentage and TD's in his junior and senior seasons.  Level of competition hurts so second round and likely bottom half of that round.  We have the first pick of the third round so he may very well be there.

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45 minutes ago, chris heff said:

John Elway had 33 rushing TDS and rushed for 3400 yards.

 

In 16 NFL seasons? I wouldn't call that a "running QB."

 

45 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Take White in the 2nd and temper the expectations.  We have close to 100M next year and could trade picks to a team facing a salary issue and needing to unload a QB or would be willing to trade a QB.  Far better value in players we can use such as with Vea or R Smith.  Don't reach with your 12 or 22.

 

Buffalo Bills fans have been tempering expectations for decades. Continuing that won't make the team better by taking a lesser ranked prospect and/or a LB/DT/WR.

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24 minutes ago, DFT said:

Love the article, but we’ll Agree to disagree.  My opinion is he developed him to fit his program.  He left a lot on the table for future development.  We haven’t even scratched the surface of what this kid can do.  I mean no disrespect to Coach P, either, because it’s so easy for me to critique the job he did, from my office, without putting in any effort outside of a key stroke, but I would have loved to see him a bit more developed, mechanically.  We’ll see though.  I’m very high on him as a developmental project.  

 

That's fair, but every QB in the 1st round will need some development. Darnold needs to work on his throwing motion and interceptions, Rosen on not taking big hits in the pocket, Mayfield on his footwork, etc. With Daboll here Jackson should be able to fit into our offensive system. I've come around to seeing him as my favorite QB in the 1st round. Especially since we don't need to give up anything to get him.

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7 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

In 16 NFL seasons? I wouldn't call that a "running QB."

 

 

Buffalo Bills fans have been tempering expectations for decades. Continuing that won't make the team better by taking a lesser ranked prospect and/or a LB/DT/WR.

  And when has reaching ever worked?  Whitner?  McCargo?  Maybin?  Just as easy to reach at QB as it is at other positions.  We were more than a QB away during the decade of darkness.

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Just now, HappyDays said:

 

That's fair, but every QB in the 1st round will need some development. Darnold needs to work on his throwing motion and interceptions, Rosen on not taking big hits in the pocket, Mayfield on his footwork, etc. With Daboll here Jackson should be able to fit into our offensive system. I've come around to seeing him as my favorite QB in the 1st round. Especially since we don't need to give up anything to get him.

Agreed!   Gives the organization a chance to see what they have in their other two guys, while Jackson develops.

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1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

He doesn't have any elite traits. 

 

Aside from size, everything he does is just average. 

 

He was an elite college quarterback. Much more so than Rosen, Darnold, and Allen. You can't be an elite college quarterback without elite traits.

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Just now, Wayne Arnold said:

 

He was an elite college quarterback. Much more so than Rosen, Darnold, and Allen. You can't be an elite college quarterback without elite traits.

Boy, you sure can, but I get your point.

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2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

He was an elite college quarterback. Much more so than Rosen, Darnold, and Allen. You can't be an elite college quarterback without elite traits.

 

Timmy Chang and Colt Brennan disgree. 

 

I don't think he was elite. He was a good Big XII QB similar to Landry Jones or Bryce Petty. They weren't elite either, and were both 4th round picks.  

 

I agree that none of Rosen, Darnold or Allen were elite either. Not sure any of them are a slam dunk, and I think Allen is going to be a colossal bust. 

Edited by jrober38
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