HappyDays Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I've seen people throw around predictions for how much we have to give up to get to #2. I think everyone is lowballing the actual amount, so I calculated what we should expect based on what the Jets gave up to go from 6 to 3. I'm using this chart: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=Buf And I give 2019 picks the value of the 16th pick 1 round earlier in 2018 (i.e. a 2019 1st is equal to the 16th pick in this year's 2nd round). So the Jets usually would have needed 2200 points to get to pick 3. Using this chart what they actually gave up was 2730 points. That's a 24% increase in value. Let's assume the Giants want the same premium, because why wouldn't they? They normally would ask for 2600 points. A 24% increase puts that at 3220 so that's what we need to get to #2. Here's what gets us to 3220: both 1sts this year, both 2nds this year, pick 96 in the 3rd, and next year's 1st. If that's what they asked for, would you take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CajunBillsBacker Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Yes, no hesitation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 / 22 / 53 / 56 / 65 / 2019 2nd / 2020 2nd for 2 / 101 / 2019 4th / 2020 4th That's my best offer. That's an unprecedented haul. If the Giants turn that down, you gave it your best shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Been saying it in a a few different threads and people have said I was crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, HappyDays said: I've seen people throw around predictions for how much we have to give up to get to #2. I think everyone is lowballing the actual amount, so I calculated what we should expect based on what the Jets gave up to go from 6 to 3. I'm using this chart: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=Buf And I give 2019 picks the value of the 16th pick 1 round earlier in 2018 (i.e. a 2019 1st is equal to the 16th pick in this year's 2nd round). So the Jets usually would have needed 2200 points to get to pick 3. Using this chart what they actually gave up was 2730 points. That's a 24% increase in value. Let's assume the Giants want the same premium, because why wouldn't they? They normally would ask for 2600 points. A 24% increase puts that at 3220 so that's what we need to get to #2. Here's what gets us to 3220: both 1sts this year, both 2nds this year, pick 96 in the 3rd, and next year's 1st. If that's what they asked for, would you take it? Isn’t that the old Jimmy Johnson chart? That’s pretty antiquated. The Rich Hill Chart is more indicative of what is going on now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Isn’t that the old Jimmy Johnson chart? That’s pretty antiquated. The Rich Hill Chart is more indicative of what is going on now: Am I supposed to do the math? That’s just mean! Am I looking at that wrong? It makes the trade seem much easier than I would expect, and I doubt it’s that easy.....but then, what do I know? Edited March 20, 2018 by Augie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Fischer Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, HappyDays said: I've seen people throw around predictions for how much we have to give up to get to #2. I think everyone is lowballing the actual amount, so I calculated what we should expect based on what the Jets gave up to go from 6 to 3. I'm using this chart: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=Buf And I give 2019 picks the value of the 16th pick 1 round earlier in 2018 (i.e. a 2019 1st is equal to the 16th pick in this year's 2nd round). So the Jets usually would have needed 2200 points to get to pick 3. Using this chart what they actually gave up was 2730 points. That's a 24% increase in value. Let's assume the Giants want the same premium, because why wouldn't they? They normally would ask for 2600 points. A 24% increase puts that at 3220 so that's what we need to get to #2. Here's what gets us to 3220: both 1sts this year, both 2nds this year, pick 96 in the 3rd, and next year's 1st. If that's what they asked for, would you take it? Nope. I just don't see a QB worth that haul (except perhaps Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman and John Elway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincec Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) Probably too much 12 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Isn’t that the old Jimmy Johnson chart? That’s pretty antiquated. The Rich Hill Chart is more indicative of what is going on now: So based on this chart, the #12 and #22 alone would be more than enough to get the #1 overall from the Browns. That sounds totally unrealistic to me. Edited March 20, 2018 by vincec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) 51 minutes ago, Augie said: Am I supposed to do the math? That’s just mean! If my math is right if the Bills give 12, 22, 53, 65 and a 3rd next year they are paying roughly 141.75 points. That’s a 156% premium. The Jets paid roughly 136.54 points. That’s a 152% premium. Again, this assumes that my math is right. 48 minutes ago, vincec said: Probably too much So based on this chart, the #12 and #22 alone would be more than enough to get the #1 overall from the Browns. That sounds totally unrealistic to me. That chart was created based on actual trades that have taken place from the time of the new CBA to the last draft. You usually pay a premium going up. I laid out an offer above that should get it done IMO. Edited March 20, 2018 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY315 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) When it comes to a QB you can throw away these value draft charts. Edited March 20, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It costs as much as Giants want no matter WHAT any chart says because it is the Giants' chart they will use. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) 40 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said: When it comes to a QB you can throw away these value draft charts. 39 minutes ago, Limeaid said: It costs as much as Giants want no matter WHAT any chart says because it is the Giants' chart they will use. That’s not how it works though. Teams use this as a guide and also use the market. The Giants will want roughly what the Jets got. The Bills can get it done fairly easily. They Giants will bite or they won’t but there aren’t many other teams that can put together that package. Edited March 20, 2018 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Isn’t that the old Jimmy Johnson chart? That’s pretty antiquated. The Rich Hill Chart is more indicative of what is going on now: I think this "New Chart" has a lot of holes in it. This chart says that Denver (#5) can move up to #1 pick for only adding their 2nd round # 40 pick? #1=100 - #5=81.56 results in a difference of 18.44. Denver's #40=26.01 and they would "overpay" by 7.57 (which would be pick# 92). The "Old Chart" has a 1300 point difference of the Value of a 1st round #10 overall pick, which I think is much more realistic. I got to repeat, this new chart is not accurate, I don't care where he got his numbers. If you were the CLE GM would you think you got a deal for Denver's 2nd? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cripple Creek Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 20 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Isn’t that the old Jimmy Johnson chart? That’s pretty antiquated. The Rich Hill Chart is more indicative of what is going on now: How does that one work? If he’s saying pick 34 will get you from 12 to 2 he’s smoking crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: I think this "New Chart" has a lot of holes in it. This chart says that Denver (#5) can move up to #1 pick for only adding their 2nd round # 40 pick? #1=100 - #5=81.56 results in a difference of 18.44. Denver's #40=26.01 and they would "overpay" by 7.57 (which would be pick# 92). The "Old Chart" has a 1300 point difference of the Value of a 1st round #10 overall pick, which I think is much more realistic. I got to repeat, this new chart is not accurate, I don't care where he got his numbers. If you were the CLE GM would you think you got a deal for Denver's 2nd? Again, this trade was formulated based on the hundreds of draft trades made (actual NFL draft trades) since the new CBA went into play. There are trades (like the Dolphins for Dion Jordan) that drag it down while trades like the Jets up the value. This is the guide that teams are using though. The Jets paid roughly a 34.6% premium. That’s the market now. Edited March 20, 2018 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Isn’t that the old Jimmy Johnson chart? That’s pretty antiquated. The Rich Hill Chart is more indicative of what is going on now: If this is correct this would be more feasible. The Jets gave up 52% more than they should have by my calculations (they gave up 136.27 instead of 89.55). A 52% premium on 93.83 is 142.62. That costs both 1sts, both 2nds, and a 4th. That is definitely more manageable albeit still a high price to pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo1105 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It’s gonna take a lot 12,22,56,65 2019 2nd, 2019 4th rounder. That’s what I’d offer the most. I’d be hesitant giving up the 2019 1st rounder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobills1212 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) 31 minutes ago, HappyDays said: I've seen people throw around predictions for how much we have to give up to get to #2. I think everyone is lowballing the actual amount, so I calculated what we should expect based on what the Jets gave up to go from 6 to 3. I'm using this chart: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=Buf And I give 2019 picks the value of the 16th pick 1 round earlier in 2018 (i.e. a 2019 1st is equal to the 16th pick in this year's 2nd round). So the Jets usually would have needed 2200 points to get to pick 3. Using this chart what they actually gave up was 2730 points. That's a 24% increase in value. Let's assume the Giants want the same premium, because why wouldn't they? They normally would ask for 2600 points. A 24% increase puts that at 3220 so that's what we need to get to #2. Here's what gets us to 3220: both 1sts this year, both 2nds this year, pick 96 in the 3rd, and next year's 1st. If that's what they asked for, would you take it? Yup! I totally get why people would rather stay and take Jackson or Rudolph though - and that's respectable. It is a lot, but circumstances allow. What I dont get though, is the group that wants to draft to fill non qb holes. Build a quality roster and continue to patch the qb position. Not a way to sustain success... which seems to be the goal of the other two groups EVEN if they disagree about trading up or standing pat for a qb. Edited March 20, 2018 by gobills1212 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manther Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 28 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said: 12 / 22 / 53 / 56 / 65 / 2019 2nd / 2020 2nd for 2 / 101 / 2019 4th / 2020 4th That's my best offer. That's an unprecedented haul. If the Giants turn that down, you gave it your best shot. You can ask for 4th round picks coming back. But, would you not do the deal over 4th rounders? you can ask, but, if they won't budge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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