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Why I think the Bills Will Take Rosen at #2 Overall April 26


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1 hour ago, Direhard Fan said:

Keep 21 and 22.  Build the lines now and all the other needs.  Take a shot at a QB in the second round.   We will never have two firsts and  two seconds again.  Don't put all your eggs in one basket or one easter please.

 

 

The Browns have had more first round picks than any other franchise since the start of the century.  They went 0-16 because they don't have a QB.

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40 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

There will be other Easters and other eggs.

 

I think if these guys traded down last year for any other reason besides accumulating picks to get a QB, then they did a very foolish thing.

 

Come to think of it Tyrod Taylor is the Perfect Personification of who the Buffalo Bills have been. He is careful, he doesn't take chances, and he will never be a champion.

I like yours better too but I don't think the value is there for Gettleman. But if it is I would do this for sure.

  Yeah, but when they did those trades they most likely expected to finish a lot higher in the draft order.  Slotting at 9-12 would have required a lot less capital to move up to 2.

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1 hour ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

I'd be on board. 

 

One possibly missing piece to that trade: Cordy Glenn. If healthy, the NYG need a LT, and it would just make sense after Dawkins' play. 

 

 

The problem with  trading Cordy is traditionally players on large contracts are worth very little compared to the unknown allure of draft picks.  If Cordy is valued like a day 2 pick and it lets us keep a day 2 pick, I'd be more inclined to include him in a package.  But if he's looked at as a guy on a big contract and is worth a ~4th-5th round pick in trade, I'd much rather keep him here.

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Just now, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

The problem with  trading Cordy is traditionally players on large contracts are worth very little compared to the unknown allure of draft picks.  If Cordy is valued like a day 2 pick and it lets us keep a day 2 pick, I'd be more inclined to include him in a package.  But if he's looked at as a guy on a big contract and is worth a ~4th-5th round pick in trade, I'd much rather keep him here.

 

I don't think his contract is so large to damage his trade value. I think medicals would be the only factor that could do that. 

 

I'd put his value right around a 2nd round pick, based on the Duane Brown trade. 

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Let me go on the record that while I am and still am banging the table for Lamar Jackson I would have NO PROBLEM with the bills going all in on Rosen.....none whatsoever

 

I just dont want those same people that are screaming for him to all of a sudden start crying when its time to pay the piper in draft picks.....he is going to cost.

 

I think Lamar Jackson is going to be a stud QB.....and prob wouldnt have to give up anything but a 1st round pick.

 

but I am good both ways.

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I think they also hold a piece to helping the Giants where they badly need it in Cordy Glenn.....They can include him in this somehow and maybe only give up two picks possibly. 

 

The Giants had one of the worst offensive lines last year and I think adding Glenn to the equation would help the Bills put some extra sweetener on the deal for the number two pick of course I could also see them working something similar with the Colts.

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Church cred, you say???  

 

If they really believe in one guy, I’m fine with going bold and making a move. Sure, we have other holes. You always have needs. But until you have your QB nothing else matters. Did I read we have about $90 mil in cap space next year. Get the right FA’s and do some extra trading back for additional picks, then hope we have better scouts than the other guys. 

 

Swing and miss, and it’s a new FO all over again before too long. 

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2 hours ago, Direhard Fan said:

Keep 21 and 22.  Build the lines now and all the other needs.  Take a shot at a QB in the second round.   We will never have two firsts and  two seconds again.  Don't put all your eggs in one basket or one easter please.

 

I'm so over this fear-based, scarcity mentality of people on this board in regards to the draft. This team will go nowhere till we have a QB. 

 

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

I like Rosen, but it's going to take a hell of a lot more compensation to move up to #2 overall. 

 

3 1s, Cordy and another pick should do it. It's kind of hard to turn down that pick haul and getting a franchise LT for reasonable money. That said, if the Giants are taking a RB at 2 I'd rather jump to 4 and have to pay way less to move up. 

Edited by ndirish1978
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2 hours ago, sleeby said:

Hold on a minute.  Sammy Watkins was a chance and it failed.   I say nevermind on gambling for a magic bullet one shot or bust pick and spread it out.  Buffalo (us) loves the idea of a magic bullet saving the day but it's not our luck.  Think bass pro moving into downtown and saving the city!  Wth was that thinking??  Now we are spreading out and developing here and there and doing much better for it.  Let the team learn from it's city.  Wake up bflo!  Ha

You have a point, but Sammy Watkins was a dumb chance. So was Bass Pro though it isn't really related to my topic here.

 

Taking a big chance on a QB is something you have to do. Pretty much nobody lets a top guy go. Brees is the last example I can come up with and the Bills passed on him too.

 

Spending what we did to trade up to get a wide receiver was a foolish risk. Teams don't have to do that. 

 

But unless you get super lightning strikes lucky you just have to invest a lot in a QB draft selection. I don't think anybody is going to argue that the Bills have been a lucky team. (Except we did get lucky with Pegula). So we will have to take a big risk as I see it.

 

My way, we take a swing for a home run. If we fail, we start losing very badly because we just blew 3 first round picks on a dud.

 

Which leads to a high draft pick for another swing.

 

Your way we probably stay mediocre playing it safe and we never get a chance for the top notch prospect.

1 hour ago, RochesterRob said:

  Yeah, but when they did those trades they most likely expected to finish a lot higher in the draft order.  Slotting at 9-12 would have required a lot less capital to move up to 2.

Well I know for sure that I expected them to.

Now look at the mess they made!

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1 hour ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

I'm so over this fear-based, scarcity mentality of people on this board in regards to the draft. This team will go nowhere till we have a QB. 

 

 

3 1s, Cordy and another pick should do it. It's kind of hard to turn down that pick haul and getting a franchise LT for reasonable money. That said, if the Giants are taking a RB at 2 I'd rather jump to 4 and have to pay way less to move up. 

 

 

Agree completely.

 

The "holes" argument drives me nuts.  Every single team in the league has holes.  They are only made bigger by injuries.  The Eagles had a terrible receiver group around Wentz, a year later they had Jeffery / Torrey Smith (meh) / Ajayi / Blount and Clement and Agholar emerged.  Having a "hole-less" football team doesn't exist, the teams that perennially make the playoffs do one thing so well it wins them the game most week.  The teams that win the title are able to counter-punch off that.  But this notion that every single puzzle piece needs to be in place before we dare to make a move for a QB is asinine. 

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2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Let me go on the record that while I am and still am banging the table for Lamar Jackson I would have NO PROBLEM with the bills going all in on Rosen.....none whatsoever

 

I just dont want those same people that are screaming for him to all of a sudden start crying when its time to pay the piper in draft picks.....he is going to cost.

 

I think Lamar Jackson is going to be a stud QB.....and prob wouldnt have to give up anything but a 1st round pick.

 

but I am good both ways.

 

Death, taxes, and people losing their minds about the cost to move up in the draft. 

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Gettleman won't pass on Barkley if he's there at 2.  You might think it's insane but there is a consensus starting to line up that Barkley is the best player in the draft.  Add in the Giants need someone to run the rock.  The other thing counting against all of this is the Broncos.  You have to hope they land a QB in FA because they could be a potential blocker.  They have the #5 pick which could actually keep Gettleman close to his top-ranked prospects.  Plus they can offer their 2nd, two thirds, three 4ths and any future picks.  They can match anything we can provide and the deal would be better for Gettleman if he has highly rated players in mind and still wants them.  

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Josh Rosen is a mix between Jay Cutler and Jeff George...

Yes, there is this sort of talk about one of the top 5 QB's. Allen with his inaccuracy. Sam Darnold with his small hands and far too many turnovers. Jackson with his one great throw and the next is a bad throw. Mayfield with his lack of prototypical height.

 

Oh, and the real knock on Rosen is durability issues and is compared to Sam Bradford. He has difficulty escaping the pocket which could see him injured again and again.

 

Yet, all five QB's will probably be gone by the tenth pick and Miami, Arizona, Cincy, Baltimore are all rumored to be in the hunt for a QB this year. So, if the Bills really want to spend this year early picks on a QB they had better do it before the 10th pick or they will be left with Taylor, Peterman and a QB out of the top six. The Steelers are rumored to be very interested in Mason Rudolph. 

 

Right now as the rumors flow Cleveland will take Barkley number one and a QB with the fourth. The Giants won't take a QB either so that means that Denver and the NY Jets will have their pick of one the top three QB's. That fourth/ fifth QB might still be there at the seventh/tenth spot should the Bills really want to grab one of those top five. 

 

This type of move up I can visualize as it wouldn't be that cost prohibitive picks wise. Moving up into the number two spot for one of those "maybe" QB's with issues would be too cost prohibitive in my view.

 

That number two overall pick is worth 2600 and the Bills two first rounders are only worth 800, 780 each, and those two-second rounders are only worth 500, 490. That's only 2570 for both firsts and both seconds unless my math is off somewhere I just don't see a move up to the number two spot. 

 

Those two number ones and two number twos could be four viable starters for one "maybe" QB @ #2. If they do that they sure as heck better know what they are doing in terms of QB evaluation. 

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4 hours ago, Direhard Fan said:

Keep 21 and 22.  Build the lines now and all the other needs.  Take a shot at a QB in the second round.   We will never have two firsts and  two seconds again.  Don't put all your eggs in one basket or one easter please.

 

Building the lines gets you no where. Getting a franchise QB gets you somewhere. There was a time this team had a wonderful OL and a DL with almost all pro bowlers. Chalk that baby up to another drought year. I would like to welcome you to the 21st century.

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Thanks for the post BLM.

 

I would seriously be super stoked about the Bills trading up in the draft for a QB.  I'd really much rather trade up for Darnold or Mayfield, but I'd be fine with Rosen.

 

 

I understand why everyone assumes we're trading up for a QB in the draft, but I don't think it happens.  McDermott and Beane seem like long term thinkers... I don't think this is the year they necessarily planned on absolutely getting their Franchise QB.

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4 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I thought about that a little. I don't know what Gettleman said beyond that he is open to offers and that he won't spend a #2 on anybody he doesn't think of as a future hall of famer.

 

And I was thinking that as a new GM he will want some kind of high pick to appease the New York crowds.

 

But how would you make that happen? The Bills would have to trade up to a spot that they do not want. So say they trade up to #11.

Then they would have to trust that Gettleman would take their #11 plus whatever else they had to throw in, like he said he would do,  and that he would not go back on it no matter what. Otherwise the Bills are sitting there at #11 with no QB they want and they have to pretend they did it for somebody else.

 

It is very risky and I can count on one hand the number of living people I know who I would trust in a deal like that. And all of them are either family or they love me or both. Is McBeane that close to Gettleman?

 

Otherwise how would you swing it without risking a disaster?

 

I think Gettleman said something to the effect of "if someone made them an offer they couldn't refuse" they would trade back "depending upon who is there" and "you can't get too cute about the whole thing".  The impression that I had is that if he trades back, he has a window he wants to stay in.  I could be wrong.

 

I don't think a Bills trade up would have to depend upon a pre-made deal with Gettleman being iron-clad at all.

 

Let's say, hypothetically, the Bills have a top-4 grade on Rosen, and a top-10 grade on (say) 3 players at positions of need - one QB, a LB, and an OL maybe?  It would make sense then for the Bills to try to get up to somewhere between #8 and #12  (#11 I think is the Dolphins, improbable trade partners....) because there would be a good chance that one of the 3 players they have that grade on would be there.  Then, if Rosen is there at pick 2 and the Giants are "open for business", Go For It. 

 

If he isn't or they're not, it's still a good move for the Bills.

 

That's the key, I think, an intermediate trade would have to be a move that made sense for the Bills on its own merits. 

That3

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6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Let me go on the record that while I am and still am banging the table for Lamar Jackson I would have NO PROBLEM with the bills going all in on Rosen.....none whatsoever

 

I just dont want those same people that are screaming for him to all of a sudden start crying when its time to pay the piper in draft picks.....he is going to cost.

 

I think Lamar Jackson is going to be a stud QB.....and prob wouldnt have to give up anything but a 1st round pick.

 

but I am good both ways.

John, I'm with you!! I just don't understand the fascination with Josh Rosen. What has he accomplished as a QB in his collegiate career that's so much better than what Lamar Jackson has done? Truthfully speaking, the only QB that I would possibly consider before Jackson is Baker Mayfield. Mayfield's resume speaks for itself. The only turnoff of Baker is his cockiness. I'm all for a confidant leader at the QB position, but a humble one. I can't remember an accomplished NFL QB that was as brazen as Mayfield. I do appreciate his journey from a walk on to a Heisman winner. It accentuates his work ethic. It's the cockiness that made people say no to Chad Kelly that scares me.

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6 hours ago, sleeby said:

Hold on a minute.  Sammy Watkins was a chance and it failed.   I say nevermind on gambling for a magic bullet one shot or bust pick and spread it out.  Buffalo (us) loves the idea of a magic bullet saving the day but it's not our luck.  Think bass pro moving into downtown and saving the city!  Wth was that thinking??  Now we are spreading out and developing here and there and doing much better for it.  Let the team learn from it's city.  Wake up bflo!  Ha

 

Sammy Watkins was a desperation play to spin a straw 1st round QB into gold.

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