2018 NFL Draft Vis-á-Vis 1983 NFL Draft: The QBs

[Fadingpain]

A lot of emphasis is being placed on which QB is going to go in which spot in the upcoming draft.

Much of the talk presupposes that the guy who goes first will be the best, the guy who goes second will be second best, and so on.

 

It is interesting to look back to 1983, a year in which the QB pool coming out of college was also very deep with talent.  And now we have the benefit of hindsight to assess the quality of the picks. 

 

The QBs taken in that draft went as follows:

 

1) John Ellway to Baltimore Colts (later traded to Denver)

7) Todd Blackledge to KC

14) Jim Kelly to Buffalo Bills

15) Tony Eason to New England

24) Ken O'Brien to NY Jets

27) Dan Marino to Dolphins

 

Note that the best of all of them (IMO) went dead last.

 

Note that the Bills in their wisdom took TE Tony Hunter 2 spots ahead of Jimbo with the Number 12 pick, later taking Kelly at 14!

 

Note that KC analyzed all the QB prospects and figured Todd Blackledge would be better than Kelly, Eason, O'Brien, and Marino.  He was worse than all of them.

 

Note that Marino, on the very short list for best pure passers of all time, was taken with the penultimate pick in the first round, ignored by almost the entire NFL.

 

As a fun aside, note that Darrell Green, one of he best CBs of all time, was taken dead last in the first round with the 28th pick by the Redskins.  There were a ton of busted picks ahead of him on the draft board; any of those could have been Darrell Green instead.

 

For example, I bet Detroit wishes they took Green instead of Florida FB James Jones with the 13th overall pick.

 

It's a bit of a crapshoot and we won't know if we got the best, second best, or fourth best QB on draft day.

 

We might get the best of all of them, even if he goes 5th.  

 

Remember this! 

 

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

12 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

A lot of emphasis is being placed on which QB is going to go in which spot in the upcoming draft.

Much of the talk presupposes that the guy who goes first will be the best, the guy who goes second will be second best, and so on.

 

It is interesting to look back to 1983, a year in which the QB pool coming out of college was also very deep with talent.  And now we have the benefit of hindsight to assess the quality of the picks. 

 

The QBs taken in that draft went as follows:

 

1) John Ellway to Baltimore Colts (later traded to Denver)

7) Todd Blackledge to KC

14) Jim Kelly to Buffalo Bills

15) Tony Eason to New England

24) Ken O'Brien to NY Jets

27) Dan Marino to Dolphins

 

Note that the best of all of them (IMO) went dead last.

 

Note that the Bills in their wisdom took TE Tony Hunter 2 spots ahead of Jimbo with the Number 12 pick, later taking Kelly at 14!

 

Note that KC analyzed all the QB prospects and figured Todd Blackledge would be better than Kelly, Eason, O'Brien, and Marino.  He was worse than all of them.

 

Note that Marino, on the very short list for best pure passers of all time, was taken with the penultimate pick in the first round, ignored by almost the entire NFL.

 

As a fun aside, note that Darrell Green, one of he best CBs of all time, was taken dead last in the first round with the 28th pick by the Redskins.  There were a ton of busted picks ahead of him on the draft board; any of those could have been Darrell Green instead.

 

For example, I bet Detroit wishes they took Green instead of Florida FB James Jones with the 13th overall pick.

 

It's a bit of a crapshoot and we won't know if we got the best, second best, or fourth best QB on draft day.

 

We might get the best of all of them, even if he goes 5th.  

 

Remember this! 

 

 

Also note that scouting back then and scouting now we're 2 completely different animals.

 

Also note that literally every draft in NFL history can be looked back upon with the "Oh, this team should have drafted...." glasses on. What seems a no brainer now wasn't back then.

 

Could also point out the following order of drafted QBs from another draft "Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman" and see a counterpoint to where the worst QB taken in the first round was.

 

In football every Ying has its Yang.

[Fadingpain]

The point remains that all the NFL teams had confidence in their ability to evaluate talent in 1983, just as they do now.

And in fact, they don't.  I am not getting caught up in which ranked QB we get, as long as we get one.

 

 

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

A lot of emphasis is being placed on which QB is going to go in which spot in the upcoming draft.

Much of the talk presupposes that the guy who goes first will be the best, the guy who goes second will be second best, and so on.

 

It is interesting to look back to 1983, a year in which the QB pool coming out of college was also very deep with talent.  And now we have the benefit of hindsight to assess the quality of the picks. 

 

The QBs taken in that draft went as follows:

 

1) John Ellway to Baltimore Colts (later traded to Denver)

7) Todd Blackledge to KC

14) Jim Kelly to Buffalo Bills

15) Tony Eason to New England

24) Ken O'Brien to NY Jets

27) Dan Marino to Dolphins

 

Note that the best of all of them (IMO) went dead last.

 

Note that the Bills in their wisdom took TE Tony Hunter 2 spots ahead of Jimbo with the Number 12 pick, later taking Kelly at 14!

 

Note that KC analyzed all the QB prospects and figured Todd Blackledge would be better than Kelly, Eason, O'Brien, and Marino.  He was worse than all of them.

 

Note that Marino, on the very short list for best pure passers of all time, was taken with the penultimate pick in the first round, ignored by almost the entire NFL.

 

As a fun aside, note that Darrell Green, one of he best CBs of all time, was taken dead last in the first round with the 28th pick by the Redskins.  There were a ton of busted picks ahead of him on the draft board; any of those could have been Darrell Green instead.

 

For example, I bet Detroit wishes they took Green instead of Florida FB James Jones with the 13th overall pick.

 

It's a bit of a crapshoot and we won't know if we got the best, second best, or fourth best QB on draft day.

 

We might get the best of all of them, even if he goes 5th.  

 

Remember this! 

 

 

Marino had rumors swirling about marijuana that caused his draft stock to fall.

[KDIGGZ]

2004: Eli, Rivers, Ben, and we picked LOSMAN

 

2018: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen and we pick ??? (probably nobody because we need a LB and everyone knows LB's win Super Bowls hurrr)

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, KelsaysLunchbox said:

Also note that scouting back then and scouting now we're 2 completely different animals.

 

Also note that literally every draft in NFL history can be looked back upon with the "Oh, this team should have drafted...." glasses on. What seems a no brainer now wasn't back then.

 

Could also point out the following order of drafted QBs from another draft "Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman" and see a counterpoint to where the worst QB taken in the first round was.

 

In football every Ying has its Yang.

Or is the yang the 1999 draft with Couch, McNabb, Smith, Culpepper and McNown?

Edited February 16, 2018 by The Jokeman

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

On 2/16/2018 at 5:22 PM, The Jokeman said:

Marino had rumors swirling about marijuana that caused his draft stock to fall.

I bet every single one of them had a toke or two in their time! Old scouts smh

Edited February 18, 2018 by horned dogs

[BADOLBILZ]

 

This year's class is most like 1999 where 5 QB's went in the top 12 picks

 

Tim Couch = Josh Rosen........the chosen one

Donovan McNabb = Sam Darnold.........the sturdier alternative with more athleticism

Akili Smith = Lamar Jackson.........the high ceiling, huge arm

Daunte Culpepper = Josh Allen........the big arm, big body, questionable processing

Cade McNown = Baker Mayfield.......the undersized competitor with the big attitude

 

 

8 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Or is the yang the 1999 draft with Couch, McNabb, Smith, Culpepper and McNown?

 

 

That was exactly my thought as well...

Edited February 16, 2018 by BADOLBILZ

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

A lot of emphasis is being placed on which QB is going to go in which spot in the upcoming draft.

Much of the talk presupposes that the guy who goes first will be the best, the guy who goes second will be second best, and so on.

 

It is interesting to look back to 1983, a year in which the QB pool coming out of college was also very deep with talent.  And now we have the benefit of hindsight to assess the quality of the picks. 

 

The QBs taken in that draft went as follows:

 

1) John Ellway to Baltimore Colts (later traded to Denver)

7) Todd Blackledge to KC

14) Jim Kelly to Buffalo Bills

15) Tony Eason to New England

24) Ken O'Brien to NY Jets

27) Dan Marino to Dolphins

 

Note that the best of all of them (IMO) went dead last.

 

Note that the Bills in their wisdom took TE Tony Hunter 2 spots ahead of Jimbo with the Number 12 pick, later taking Kelly at 14!

 

Note that KC analyzed all the QB prospects and figured Todd Blackledge would be better than Kelly, Eason, O'Brien, and Marino.  He was worse than all of them.

 

Note that Marino, on the very short list for best pure passers of all time, was taken with the penultimate pick in the first round, ignored by almost the entire NFL.

 

As a fun aside, note that Darrell Green, one of he best CBs of all time, was taken dead last in the first round with the 28th pick by the Redskins.  There were a ton of busted picks ahead of him on the draft board; any of those could have been Darrell Green instead.

 

For example, I bet Detroit wishes they took Green instead of Florida FB James Jones with the 13th overall pick.

 

It's a bit of a crapshoot and we won't know if we got the best, second best, or fourth best QB on draft day.

 

We might get the best of all of them, even if he goes 5th.  

 

Remember this! 

 

 

Three hall of famers and three meh QBs. That's the part no one discusses while debating who to draft. Of the six or so names thrown around for 2018, which are going to have totally forgettable careers?

Edited February 16, 2018 by PromoTheRobot

[Virgil]

Is anyone out there saying that evaluating and drafting QB’s is a no-lose deal?

 

I’m not 100% sold on any of these guys. I think Rosen and Mayfield have the best chance, but they could all be busts. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

14 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Or is the yang the 1999 draft with Couch, McNabb, Smith, Culpepper and McNown?

If I had to guess...I'm going to say this draft will end up looking more like 2011 with Cam followed by Locker/Gabbert/Ponder

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Fadingpain said:

A lot of emphasis is being placed on which QB is going to go in which spot in the upcoming draft.

Much of the talk presupposes that the guy who goes first will be the best, the guy who goes second will be second best, and so on.

 

It is interesting to look back to 1983, a year in which the QB pool coming out of college was also very deep with talent.  And now we have the benefit of hindsight to assess the quality of the picks. 

 

The QBs taken in that draft went as follows:

 

1) John Ellway to Baltimore Colts (later traded to Denver)

7) Todd Blackledge to KC

14) Jim Kelly to Buffalo Bills

15) Tony Eason to New England

24) Ken O'Brien to NY Jets

27) Dan Marino to Dolphins

 

Note that the best of all of them (IMO) went dead last.

 

Note that the Bills in their wisdom took TE Tony Hunter 2 spots ahead of Jimbo with the Number 12 pick, later taking Kelly at 14!

 

Note that KC analyzed all the QB prospects and figured Todd Blackledge would be better than Kelly, Eason, O'Brien, and Marino.  He was worse than all of them.

 

Note that Marino, on the very short list for best pure passers of all time, was taken with the penultimate pick in the first round, ignored by almost the entire NFL.

 

As a fun aside, note that Darrell Green, one of he best CBs of all time, was taken dead last in the first round with the 28th pick by the Redskins.  There were a ton of busted picks ahead of him on the draft board; any of those could have been Darrell Green instead.

 

For example, I bet Detroit wishes they took Green instead of Florida FB James Jones with the 13th overall pick.

 

It's a bit of a crapshoot and we won't know if we got the best, second best, or fourth best QB on draft day.

 

We might get the best of all of them, even if he goes 5th.  

 

Remember this! 

 

 

John Elway was 6'3", 202 lbs and Dan Marino dropped because his stats his senior year decreased. His INTs went up and his comp pct dropped. FWIW

[DCOrange]

We should look back at the 1999 draft; the only draft before this season where 5 QBs went in the first 20 (and in that case, all of them went in the top 12).

[Rico]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

This year's class is most like 1999 where 5 QB's went in the top 12 picks

 

Tim Couch = Josh Rosen........the chosen one

Donovan McNabb = Sam Darnold.........the sturdier alternative with more athleticism

Akili Smith = Lamar Jackson.........the high ceiling, huge arm

Daunte Culpepper = Josh Allen........the big arm, big body, questionable processing

Cade McNown = Baker Mayfield.......the undersized competitor with the big attitude

 

 

 

 

That was exactly my thought as well...

That hurts.

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Three hall of famers and three meh QBs. That's the part no one discusses while debating who to draft. Of the six or so names thrown around for 2018, which are going to have totally forgettable careers?

 

The general assumption of the "DRAFT A QB IN THE FIRST ROUND" crowd is that doing so will result in a franchise QB on a par with Kelly despite the reality that in both 2004 and 2013 that didn't happen.

 

58 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Is anyone out there saying that evaluating and drafting QB’s is a no-lose deal?

 

I’m not 100% sold on any of these guys. I think Rosen and Mayfield have the best chance, but they could all be busts. 

 

I agree.   What's most troubling is that all of the tops QBs have serious flaws to the point that there's no consensus #1.  In both 1983 and 2004, Elway and E Manning were considered the consensus #1 picks in long before February.   It's the consensus #1 picks who are the most likely to be successful by a huge margin: hitting about 80% success since 2000 whereas pick through 2-16 are about 50% and  17-32 only around 20%. 

 

56 minutes ago, KelsaysLunchbox said:

If I had to guess...I'm going to say this draft will end up looking more like 2011 with Cam followed by Locker/Gabbert/Ponder

 

That's usually what happens in most drafts: 1 good/great QB (usually the guy who goes #1) and any other first rounders being busts.  Occasionally a couple of QBs come out of the first round.  When that happens, it's usually like 2005 (Smith & Rodgers), 2008 (Ryan & Flacco) or 2012 (Luck & Tannehill) -- one great one and one okay one.

 

What's interesting about 2011 and 2012 is that good/great QBs came out of rounds after the first, which rarely happens: Dalton in 2011 and Wilson and Cousins in 2012.  2014 might be another year with both Carr and Garoppolo from the 2nd, but Carr struggled in 2017 and Garoppolo has made all of 7 starts, it's early yet to judge their careers.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 2/16/2018 at 4:22 PM, The Jokeman said:

Marino had rumors swirling about marijuana that caused his draft stock to fall.

 

Well, I'll be durned, you're right.  But this article has some interesting points about the "herd mentality":

The rumor probably didn't have one traceable source. It was just speculation that took on its own life. But Demoff doesn't remember it as a conspiracy that doomed Marino to fall to 27th in the draft.

"People started finding reasons to not like Marino, and I think that the drug rumors were just another thing that they threw on the pile," he said.

Once a few teams passed on Marino at the start of the NFL draft, a herd mentality kicked in.

"This happens in a lot of drafts," Didinger said. "Once a guy starts falling, everybody runs the other way. Everyone assumes everyone else knows something, and they back away."
(the article also points out that Marino had kind of a miserable Senior season)

 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, I'll be durned, you're right.  But this article has some interesting points about the "herd mentality":

The rumor probably didn't have one traceable source. It was just speculation that took on its own life. But Demoff doesn't remember it as a conspiracy that doomed Marino to fall to 27th in the draft.

"People started finding reasons to not like Marino, and I think that the drug rumors were just another thing that they threw on the pile," he said.

Once a few teams passed on Marino at the start of the NFL draft, a herd mentality kicked in.

"This happens in a lot of drafts," Didinger said. "Once a guy starts falling, everybody runs the other way. Everyone assumes everyone else knows something, and they back away."
(the article also points out that Marino had kind of a miserable Senior season)

 

 

I think that something similar happened to Aaron Rodgers as well.  He was supposed to be the #1 pick, but I believe that there were vague rumors floating about him, too, and that sank his draft stock.

Edited February 18, 2018 by SoTier

[Logic]

The most recent two times the Bills drafted a 1st round QB, they got a couple of Todd Blackledges. Here's hoping they get a Kelly, Marino, or Elway this time around!

[SoCal Deek]

I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that if you look deeper you’d find that some of these ‘busts’ were due to poor, or constantly changing, coaching and/or a lack of players around them. I find it hard to believe that a college QB could be this closely scrutinized and suddenly turn into garbage. I’m of the mindset to see the Bills draft a guy with the size and resume against top competition from a major conference. He may not turn into John Elway but he’s not going to suck.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

On 2/16/2018 at 5:38 PM, PromoTheRobot said:

Three hall of famers and three meh QBs. That's the part no one discusses while debating who to draft. Of the six or so names thrown around for 2018, which are going to have totally forgettable careers?

Disagree. O'Brien was a good, perhaps very good, QB who had success with the Jets. From memory he led the league in passing and made the Pro Bowl on some very good Jets teams. Eason wasn't terrible, he was serviceable perhaps good at one point, and QB the Patriots to the SB one year but had a relatively short career. So perhaps meh you're right there. Blackledge was a washout.

 

So 3 HOFs, 1 very good , 1 meh to decent, 1 washout. Probably can't expect any better in any QB draft.

[PromoTheRobot]

9 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

Disagree. O'Brien was a good, perhaps very good, QB who had success with the Jets. From memory he led the league in passing and made the Pro Bowl on some very good Jets teams. Eason wasn't terrible, he was serviceable perhaps good at one point, and QB the Patriots to the SB one year but had a relatively short career. So perhaps meh you're right there. Blackledge was a washout.

 

So 3 HOFs, 1 very good , 1 meh to decent, 1 washout. Probably can't expect any better in any QB draft.

My point is we don't want serviceable. Tyrod was serviceable. We want the second coming of Jim Kelly. Really we want the second coming of Tom Brady! Anything less will mean we are still looking.

[PolishDave]

On 2/16/2018 at 5:22 PM, The Jokeman said:

Marino had rumors swirling about marijuana that caused his draft stock to fall.

 

Were gas masks involved?

[SoTier]

5 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that if you look deeper you’d find that some of these ‘busts’ were due to poor, or constantly changing, coaching and/or a lack of players around them. I find it hard to believe that a college QB could be this closely scrutinized and suddenly turn into garbage. I’m of the mindset to see the Bills draft a guy with the size and resume against top competition from a major conference. He may not turn into John Elway but he’s not going to suck.

 

Sorry, but it doesn't matter how "deep" you go, teams miss on QBs more frequently than other top ten positions, probably because the position requires much more in the way of intangibles than most other positions, and the guys who may have the physical ability don't necessarily have the intangibles like being able to read Ds, having good reaction time, and/or making good decisions (JP Losman) while the opposite is also common (Ryan Fitzpatrick).

 

4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

My point is we don't want serviceable. Tyrod was serviceable. We want the second coming of Jim Kelly. Really we want the second coming of Tom Brady! Anything less will mean we are still looking.

 

Well, "we" don't always get what we want.  Getting a serviceable QB with the Bills drafting at 21 is realistically about the best the Bills can expect.  The best QBs to come out of the bottom of the first round since 2000 are Chad Pennington (2001), Aaron Rodgers (2005), Joe Flacco (2018), and Teddy Bridgewater (2014).  All the others drafted after pick #16 sucked.  

 

Trading up into the top ten doesn't guarantee a team drafting the next Jim Kelly either.   In the last 10 years, the first ten picks have yielded these busts or just serviceable QBs:  Mark Sanchez (2009), Jake Locker (2011), Blaine Gabbert (2011), Robert Griffin III (2012), Ryan Tannehill (2012), Blake Bortles (2014).

 

[PromoTheRobot]

17 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Well, "we" don't always get what we want.  Getting a serviceable QB with the Bills drafting at 21 is realistically about the best the Bills can expect.  The best QBs to come out of the bottom of the first round since 2000 are Chad Pennington (2001), Aaron Rodgers (2005), Joe Flacco (2018), and Teddy Bridgewater (2014).  All the others drafted after pick #16 sucked.  

 

Trading up into the top ten doesn't guarantee a team drafting the next Jim Kelly either.   In the last 10 years, the first ten picks have yielded these busts or just serviceable QBs:  Mark Sanchez (2009), Jake Locker (2011), Blaine Gabbert (2011), Robert Griffin III (2012), Ryan Tannehill (2012), Blake Bortles (2014).

 

 

I'm just saying this quest for the perfect QB will never end because no one will ever live up to expectations.

[Misterbluesky]

Face the facts..about 95% of the draft is a crap shoot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Sorry, but it doesn't matter how "deep" you go, teams miss on QBs more frequently than other top ten positions, probably because the position requires much more in the way of intangibles than most other positions, and the guys who may have the physical ability don't necessarily have the intangibles like being able to read Ds, having good reaction time, and/or making good decisions (JP Losman) while the opposite is also common (Ryan Fitzpatrick).

 

With all due respect NEITHER Losman or Fitz came from a top conference or a top program, and neither played against top competition.  So, neither fits my criteria.

[SoTier]

11 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

With all due respect NEITHER Losman or Fitz came from a top conference or a top program, and neither played against top competition.  So, neither fits my criteria.

 

I used them as Bills specific examples of QBs who had either excellent physical or intangible traits but not enough of both to be successful.  Feel free to use your own examples of first or even second round QBs who were "doomed" by their situations. 

[mjt328]

I look at it different.

 

In 1983, a total of 16 quarterbacks were drafted.  None of the guys drafted after the 1st Round were able to start even 10 games during their ENTIRE NFL career.

Out of the top 6 prospects identified by NFL scouts, there were 3 who eventually made the Hall of Fame (John Elway, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino).  One of them (Ken O'Brien) was a decent starter for several years. 

 

Yes, the scouts were wrong about Todd Blackledge and Tony Eason.  But overall, they had a very good idea which QBs had the best chance to succeed, and which ones were the long shots.  It was not a total crap-shoot.  It was a calculated gamble - and even though certain players had much higher odds of success, there were always risks of them busting.

 

 

 

When it comes to drafting a 1st Round Quarterback, I see arguments against it EVERY SINGLE YEAR.  That's because drafting a QB early is always a risky proposition. 

 

No other position in the NFL has a more difficult learning curve than QB.  No other position has a higher bust rate than QB.  No other position requires as large of an investment as the QB.  No other position has a large of an impact as a QB.  If you a draft a QB in the 1st Round (say JP Losman or EJ Manuel), your franchise's success over the next 3-5 years will hinge almost entirely on THAT ONE PLAYER.  If he busts, it destroys the reputation of the front office and coaching staff that put faith in him.  If he busts, it pulls the rest of the team down to the ground.  But if you draft another busted position in the 1st Round (Aaron Maybin), it can be a mistake much more easily swept under the rug, and the rest of the team doesn't suffer as badly.

 

NFL history shows what kind of quarterback you need to have, in order to constantly contend for a championship.  You don't pass on a top prospect, because you are afraid of getting Tony Eason.  You don't pass on a top prospect, because you are hoping to get Tom Brady in the 6th Round.  You take the top prospect, because it's your best chance of landing a guy like Elway, Kelly or Marino.