The “Draft Capital” is over rated

[NastyNateSoldiers]

4 hours ago, Virgil said:

Jones, Dawkins, Milano all drafted after round 1. Yes, draft capitol is real

I wouldn't use Jones as an example he's horrible.  There's bout 5 or 6 wrs that were better then him that went after him in the draft. 

[OldTimer1960]

6 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  But all those picks are in the bottom half of each round.  Not the same as offering a top 10 pick in each round and will be discounted accordingly.  Throw Jimmy Johnson's guide in the bottom desk drawer as it will not be relevant this spring.  Teams like the Giants and Colts know there are a fair number of potential trade partners out there interested in a QB so they are not going to fire sale their top picks.  If the QB's are as good as people here seem to think they are it will take a lot of convincing i.e. premium draft choices to convince the top sitting teams to move out of their slots.  

That is what I was trying to say in this thread.

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

 

 

I'm sorry man I hate to call out someone on an opinion that differs from mine but this is just bad all around. It doesn't matter where you pick it matters who you pick, if any team already knew who the dominant players they'd all go before we even had a shot. The key is to find the correct players for your schemes and hopefully they turn out to be great in the end.

 

You state " you don't see a QB trading the farm for", what credentials do you have to evaluate the QB position? Professionals who do this for a living have a hard time evaluating and you just know? Can I ask how you came to this conclusion? Which games you watched that made you right this thread?

I did not mean to imply that I was some super scout.  I do think that Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield are good, maybe very good prospects, but IF the Bills were to trade up high enough to get one of them, it will leave very little left to address other needs.

 

i know that no prospect is perfect, but I would be leery of trading 2 1sts and a 2nd (maybe more) for any of them.  With Rosen you have to worry if he really wants to play, Darnold had a ton of turnovers this year and Mayfield's height might be a problem in the NFL.  Sure, I'd be happy to have any of the 3, but at how high of a price?

 

i am hoping that they can make a small move up to get someone like Jackson or Rudolph and still have 2 1st and at least one 2nd left.  

3 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

I totally agree about the trading up for a QB part. 

 

But don't you think it's a little early to say that their selections in round 2 and 3 are underwhelming? 

 

Would you be underehelmed if the Bills added 2 more players the caliber of

Dion Dawkins with their two 2nd round picks? 

 

Dawkins was taken with the 2nd to last pick of the 2nd round and I think that looks like a very good pick so far. He stepped right in as a rookie at LT and more than held his own. 

 

Or what if they use those two 2nd round picks, or one 2nd + the 3rd, to trade up and draft some highly rated player that fell in the draft? 

 

I get what you're saying about the picks not being as high as we'd all maybe like, but I just think it's too early to be disappointed or underwhelmed or whatever. Let's wait and see what happens first. 

 

McDermott and Beane were both a big part of drafting Josh Norman in the 5th round, and McDermott obviously played a big role in his development into one of the top CB's in the NFL. I know that's not the norm for a 5th rounder, but good players are found all over the draft every year. 

 

This past draft McDermott looks to have found contributing players with every single pick.

I agree with the theme of your post.  If they don't trade a lot to move up for a QB, I think they can get some good players -or- they can trade a lot and hopefully get a QB but little other help.  My main argument is that they likely can't do both.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 hours ago, John from Hemet said:

To the OP

 

You can look at it that way if you want.....just keep in mind that we had a latter round 1st round pick last year (that got us an additional 1st rounder this year) that turned into T. White.......who was just a wonderful player for us this year.

 

To me....its not "where" the picks are in the rounds....it is how good is your scouting department in finding the talent that is not considered "elite"

 

For instance

 

The scouting reports on Tre White is that he was the best pure cover corner in the draft (in a strong draft for corners) but for some reason the reports on him made him a average run support defender......but it looks like the bills dug a little deeper and found a player that fit our system perfectly.

 

Its not where we pick.....its how many chances we get to pick and doing the homework on the players

 

That doesn't work at QB.

 

[WideRightRevenge]

10 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I could also cite upside anomalies picked later in the draft ad nauseum.  Are you suggesting that a 3rd round pick(like Wilson) is as likely to find a good starting QB as a high first round pick?  

 

Nobody would argue that there isn't some small chance that you can find a valuable player late in the draft or even as an undrafted FA.  That is not the same as saying that it doesn't matter where in the draft you pick - you have an equal chance of finding a good QB.

 

I think history will show there are more first round QB busts over the years than quality QB's (drafted after round 3 or UDFA's) ... my point is I don't think any of this year's round of QB's is without some faults so let's not trade the farm to move up .. let the draft come to us ... I'm perfectly happy with all these picks regardless of where they are seeded in any given round ... ask any other team with less picks which draft board they'd rather have.

[hondo in seattle]

6 hours ago, Dadonkadonk said:

The OP's entire premise is backwards. The draft lottery is about the number of bites at the apple not where you bite it.  Trade down. Get more picks.  

 

Somewhere I read that this is the insight that the Pats have gleaned from analytics.

Edited February 9, 2018 by hondo in seattle

[OldTimer1960]

6 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

I totally agree about the trading up for a QB part. 

 

But don't you think it's a little early to say that their selections in round 2 and 3 are underwhelming? 

 

Would you be underehelmed if the Bills added 2 more players the caliber of

Dion Dawkins with their two 2nd round picks? 

 

Dawkins was taken with the 2nd to last pick of the 2nd round and I think that looks like a very good pick so far. He stepped right in as a rookie at LT and more than held his own. 

 

Or what if they use those two 2nd round picks, or one 2nd + the 3rd, to trade up and draft some highly rated player that fell in the draft? 

 

I get what you're saying about the picks not being as high as we'd all maybe like, but I just think it's too early to be disappointed or underwhelmed or whatever. Let's wait and see what happens first. 

 

McDermott and Beane were both a big part of drafting Josh Norman in the 5th round, and McDermott obviously played a big role in his development into one of the top CB's in the NFL. I know that's not the norm for a 5th rounder, but good players are found all over the draft every year. 

 

This past draft McDermott looks to have found contributing players with every single pick.

Your right, I don't think that those 2nd round picks are without value, but they aren't the same as having 2 picks high in round 2.  All that I am really saying is that it seems some are saying that the Bills have 2 1sts, 2 2nds a 3rd, 4th and two 5ths without acknowledging that the 2 #1s are in the bottom 1/3 of the round, the 2 #2s are in the bottom 1/3 of that round and the 3rd is the very last pick in that round.

 

If we follow the draft value chart posted earlier in the thread, the Bills' 2 1sts are roughly equivalent to the 4th or 5th pick in round 1 and the Bills' 2 2nd round picks together are worth about the same as the 29th pick in round 1.  That is certainly nothing to sneeze at, just less than I think many believe.

 

Now, with the demand for QBs, I think it will cost more than the Bills' 2 1sts to get into the top 5 to nab a QB. 
 

If they were able to trade only their 2 1sts to get Rosen, Darnold or, maybe, Mayfield I'd be happy. 

[WideRightRevenge]

9 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Your right, I don't think that those 2nd round picks are without value, but they aren't the same as having 2 picks high in round 2.  All that I am really saying is that it seems some are saying that the Bills have 2 1sts, 2 2nds a 3rd, 4th and two 5ths without acknowledging that the 2 #1s are in the bottom 1/3 of the round, the 2 #2s are in the bottom 1/3 of that round and the 3rd is the very last pick in that round.

 

If we follow the draft value chart posted earlier in the thread, the Bills' 2 1sts are roughly equivalent to the 4th or 5th pick in round 1 and the Bills' 2 2nd round picks together are worth about the same as the 29th pick in round 1.  That is certainly nothing to sneeze at, just less than I think many believe.

 

Now, with the demand for QBs, I think it will cost more than the Bills' 2 1sts to get into the top 5 to nab a QB. 
 

If they were able to trade only their 2 1sts to get Rosen, Darnold or, maybe, Mayfield I'd be happy. 

 

I'd take that deal .. trade the 2 2's to move to #29 in round one .. and have picks 21,22, & 29 ... 3 players in top 29 vs. 4 players (21,22, 53 & 56 in round 2)

[NoSaint]

10 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

Our extra 2nd and 1st could be packaged with our original 1st to get us into the top 5. We would still retain 7 picks in that scenario. That seems like good capital to me. 

 

Right, but when you are used to drafting top 10ish for 20 years, having to give up all your extra picks to get back to where you are used to being.... it’s like getting a raise and taxes going up simultaneously. You don’t complain but it doesn’t feel as exciting as you were hoping it would. 

[SoCal Deek]

The OP does realize that there aren’t really any rounds but instead just one long list of draft picks, right? The first pick of the second round is really just the 33rd pick of the entire draft. There isn’t a built in drop off in talent from the end of one round to the beginning of the next.

[Kirby Jackson]

The answer is more picks and higher picks are both good. It isn’t that one plan is significantly better than the other. There was a stat out there last year on the Patriots draft trades and I don’t remember it exactly but it was roughly 60 trades involving draft picks in the last 15 years. It was almost 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 trading up, trading back and trading a pick for a player. The board and availability dictate the best strategy. 

[NoSaint]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The answer is more picks and higher picks are both good. It isn’t that one plan is significantly better than the other. There was a stat out there last year on the Patriots draft trades and I don’t remember it exactly but it was roughly 60 trades involving draft picks in the last 15 years. It was almost 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 trading up, trading back and trading a pick for a player. The board and availability dictate the best strategy. 

 

 

Yup - there are sweet spots where you find the cheapest place you can get the types of players you need. You move to those spots whenever possible.

 

Two guys at a need position rated the same? Keep moving back til you risk losing both. Big drop off behind a guy slated 10 picks ahead? Go get him. 

[BillsVet]

10 hours ago, Virgil said:

Jones, Dawkins, Milano all drafted after round 1. Yes, draft capitol is real

 

Finding a QB is much harder than drafting a second tier WR, a WLB, or even an OT. To make this comparison is asinine. It's like all those years Bills fans heralded drafting guards, safeties, and linebackers. Those positions aren't impacting games the way a QB or pass rusher will.

 

No one knows what's going to happen leading up to draft day. But the OP is correct in assessing these picks as not being prime. The issue remains the same: McBeane need to hit a HR with this draft. They have far too many needs, namely QB, to find players who'll start quickly.

 

 

[Chuck Wagon]

"Who needs draft picks, give me one guaranteed guy"

 

- Mike Ditka

 

 

Outside of a handful of blue chip prospects at the very top of the draft, typically guys who go in the early teens aren't that far off from talent that goes in the 3rd round.

[Virgil]

15 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

"Who needs draft picks, give me one guaranteed guy"

 

- Mike Ditka

 

 

Outside of a handful of blue chip prospects at the very top of the draft, typically guys who go in the early teens aren't that far off from talent that goes in the 3rd round.

 

Says the guy who got eventually fired in part for trading his whole draft for Ricky Williams. 

[wagon127]

I mean, the more draft picks you have, the more chances you have to get it right. Watkins line of 39 catches, for 593 yards and 8 Touchdowns with a promising young quarterback. I don't think he puts up that kind of numbers with Tyrod Taylor. Its not crazy to think you can find first year starters in each of the first 3 rounds. And we have 5 picks in those rounds.

[corta765]

Draft Capital is not overrated. Statistically you hit on around 33% of your picks and the goal is always to have more picks especially in the first 3 rounds to increase your chance of hitting more. The Patriots and Ravens are brilliant with having a ton of picks and if you look at how many good starters they get later in the draft its pretty stark of how much the draft is just a gamble and you want more chances.

 

In regards to the Bills selecting at 21 and 22 remember we just drafted Tre White at 27, Aaron Rodgers was drafted 24th, and Johnny Manziel was drafted 10th when Derek Carr/Teddy Bridgewater were drafted 32nd and 36th. Simply put you really don't know and need to hope you have your homework done while getting a little lucky also.

[HumbleAndHungry]

Who did we draft 27th last year ? Was he a prime selection? 

[BigBuff423]

13 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

There is a LOT of hype about haw draft capital rich the Bills are this year.  Looking at the Bills’ picks this year, it seems that they are a lot poorer than the hype.

 

in round 1, Bills picks 21st and 22nd.  Neither pick is a prime selection.  *Maybe* a trade of both picks gets them high enough to get a good QB prospect.

 

in round 2, both picks are in the bottom third of the round.  All of the exciting players who might be left till round 2 will be long gone by the Bills’ 2 late picks in this round.

 

The Bills’ own pick in round 3 was traded for Kelvin Benjamin- like that trade...  BUT the remaining “draft capital “ in round 3 is the very LAST pick of the round.  It is unlikely that pickbis finding a long-term contributor.  

 

Round 4 may give a shot at a mid-level contributor for a few years and the 5th round picks are fairly long shots to ever be a contributor.

 

Bottom line, I don’t see a QB in this draft worth trading the farm for.  So far this offseason, I have no reason to believe that any of Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph are any worse prospect than Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield.  

 

With the the recognition that waiting until 21 might get them shut out of the QB derby,  I can’t see a powerful case to pay a lot to trade up...

 

I'm sorry, but I couldn't disagree with you more. Where in the Draft, except for the top 10 becomes basically irrelevant IF your FO can scout and assign value properly. Tre White was a late 1st round and *should* have won DROY...Dawkins was very good and probably a long term Offensive line solution somewhere on the line depending on Glenn and what the Bills decide to do... Milano will be a very good asset for the Bills LBs, and Zay had a rough year, but months ago I posted All-time great WRs and their Rookie years....it's really amazing, and yes they were in a different era, but to be considered literally in the top 10 of all time and have some of the paltry numbers they had, is eye opening. 

 

We also learned later that Zay played hurt all year and it does explain some of the alligator arm issues he had because he couldn't quite get the extension and comfort with his shoulder. So, let's assume it's a "wait and see" for Zay. Those picks came in various stages of the Draft, and given where this Draft is deep, they happen to be at positions of need for the Bills, IMO at least: QB, DT, LB, and while WR isn't great this year, it has some depth. Also, Offensive line is an area I think the Bills use a Day 2 pick on - and all of this is without any other trades, which I think will happen, i.e. Tyrod, Hughes, possibly Glenn, and don't shout me down, but Shady. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

11 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Draft capital is pretty simple. It takes an interested party but everyone pretty much uses the same chart. That’s why it doesn’t vary a lot. Here is the chart that teams are using recently:

 

 

 

oooohhhhh we could go up to 4 with 21 and 22!

 

OK, serious, given this chart (and I know it varies) I would consider 21 and 22, our first round 2 pick, and something next year to get to number 2, if the Giants are willing, which they may not be.