Alex Smith vs. Sam Bradford

[bills8323]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Yeah he is.  4,042 yards for 26 TD's and 5 INT's is an upgrade.  Granted he had more weapons.

Did he have more weapons though? Our offensive has plenty of weapons that are just never used correctly. Clay, Shady, Deonte, KB and Zay is a solid group that shouldn't have us lagging as far as we have in the passing game. Tyrod is a great dude and can win games but doesn't have that killer instinct. I don't want to give up anything for Smith but if we got him he would at least put together some 300 yard games, something Tyrod may never do again(MIA game '16). Find your guy in the draft. We have the picks for a reason in potentially one of the deepest QB drafts of recent memory. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

If I have to choose between the 2 then I'm angry that I've gotten to this point, honestly. I would go with Bradford, but mostly due to the drawbacks surrounding acquiring and keeping Smith.

 

Alex Smith on a $17M one year rental isn't worth the draft picks. He had a great year last year, but the rest of his career screams average at best. I simply do not have hope that 2017 Alex is the product I'm getting for $17M, a 2nd, and a future pick or depth player.

[ALF]

3rd and 5th at the most for Alex Smith otherwise just take Fitz or another bridge.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

The more I analyze this Buffalo Bills offseason, the more I think our 2018 starting QB could come down to either Alex Smith or Sam Bradford.

Sam Bradford Upside:

• Despite having nearly a decade of experience as a starting NFL QB in this league, Bradford will still only be 30 years old when the 2018 season begins
• Won't have to give up any draft picks for him
• Considering his injury history, he may be good value if we can get him at a price lower than expected
• Career at an upward trajectory - had a career year in 2016 and played at a very high level in his two starts in 2017
• Played under Josh McDaniels in 2011, so may be already acclimated to many of Brain Daboll's concepts

Alex Smith Upside:

• Coming off the best season of his career
• Competitive guy, underdog 'me-against-the-world' mentality could fit in well in Buffalo

 

Alex Smith Downside:

• Some describe him as Tyrod Taylor without the wheels - doesn't read the field quickly and hesitates to throw to WR who aren't wide open
• Turns 35 years old this May - how much does he have left?

 

First off, with Bradford, I think his history answers your question "can he stay healthy"?  When a guy has gone out for the same injury 3x in 3 different seasons, it's a chronic concern.  And this is Football.  It isn't played by British sportsmen who would NEVER shoot a fox, tut tut what?  It's played by guys who, if they know you've got a weakness, will target it.  All part of the game. 

 

Sam Bradford and Alex Smith are very different QB.  Bradford is a classic pocket passer with a good arm, but he struggled early in his career to move the ball downfield and score - I think a problem both reading D and knowing his progressions, someone correct me if you saw it and have better gouge, but it was a Problem with a capital "P".  I wouldn't make a positive of the Bradford/McDaniels/Daboll connection.  Under McDaniels, Bradford was utterly impotent as a passer.  He threw 6 TD all season.  6.  Six.  All season.  And 6 picks to go with.  If there's a connection, it might be "Keep Sam Bradford the Hell Away from the EP offense McDaniel tried to run in 2011 and Anything Like It".  Bradford did well in Shurmer's "spread" under Chip Kelly which morphed into what they're calling "Air Coryell" in Minn.  Bradford is a quality passer, and if you put him in an offense he's comfortable with and give him targets and time, he's got the arm to execute - if he keeps his legs under him.  He does not have that "teflon" pocket shiftability to avoid the rush.  Too often, he stands in and gets hammered instead, probably one reason he gets hurt.  If you watch the film clip of Bradford going down in '14 preseason, that's Bradford.

Alex Smith has more wheels than you think - while Taylor ran for 568, 580, 427 yds, Smith ran for 498, 134, 355 yds (it's his 2nd >400 yd rush season and usually >5.5 ypa.  I don't know what was up with Smith in 2016 (injury?) but he can move the chains with his legs, and he's smarter about it than Taylor is - takes off sooner and "gives himself up" more.  I don't think Smith's problem is reading the field - he's significantly better at reading an offense and going through progressions than Taylor is at this point in their careers, at least given an offense he's comfortable with.  Smith is a strictly WCO guy, and whether he'd take to E-P is an open question.  He is careful with the ball, but the reason his passing stats soared this year is better WR, more separation and able to make the catch in close coverage.  Give him targets and time and he'll pull the trigger more than Taylor does and faster.  His arm is OK - there's a reason he was a #1 pick, not elite Brees or Rodgers-like accuracy.  Where Smith lacks is again, that "teflon" pocket sense and shiftability.  When he feels pressure, he'll squirt out of the pocket and leave plays behind.  He does it less now than when he was young, but it's in his QB DNA and it's not going away.  If you bring in Smith and you want him to pass not run, build a strong OL and good targets.

 

Dunno if that helps.

 

 

Edited January 30, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Buffalo Barbarian]

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

The more I analyze this Buffalo Bills offseason, the more I think our 2018 starting QB could come down to either Alex Smith or Sam Bradford.

 

When it comes to the Draft, the Bills are in a tough spot at picks 21/22. Teams are going to want a king's ransom in order to move up to the Top 10 (much less Top 5).

 

I also see this QB class as being way more flawed than people choose to believe. Each prospect has his own warts. There might be a star in this class, but no one knows who it is. It might be the 1st rated QB in the class, or it might be the 5th rated. It's a total crap shoot.

 

So what is the Bills' best option for 2018 (and beyond)? It might be one of the veteran QB's that will be available.

 

Kirk Cousins: As much as I would love it to happen, I don't see Kirk Cousins being realistic for us considering the lack of cap space we have and the competition for his services.

Teddy Bridgewater: This guy is a total question mark due to his knee. I'm guessing that he'll stay with the Vikings on a prove-you-can-still-play one-year contract extension.

Case Keenum: I think the Vikings give him a solid contract extension.

 

The rest are trash.

 

That leaves Sam Bradford (Free Agent) and Alex Smith (under contract with the Chiefs)

 

Sam Bradford Upside:

 

• Despite having nearly a decade of experience as a starting NFL QB in this league, Bradford will still only be 30 years old when the 2018 season begins
• Won't have to give up any draft picks for him
• Considering his injury history, he may be good value if we can get him at a price lower than expected
• Career at an upward trajectory - had a career year in 2016 and played at a very high level in his two starts in 2017
• Played under Josh McDaniels in 2011, so may be already acclimated to many of Brain Daboll's concepts

 

Sam Bradford Downside: 

 

• Has been plagued by injuries for much of his career. Can he get and stay healthy?
• Risky acquisition. Can we afford him considering all the competition for the services of quarterback out there?

 

Alex Smith Upside:

 

• Coming off the best season of his career
• Competitive guy, underdog 'me-against-the-world' mentality could fit in well in Buffalo

 

Alex Smith Downside:

 

• Must give up draft picks to get him
• Only one year left on his deal - is he worth it?
• Can he perform at such a high level without Andy Reid?
• Some describe him as Tyrod Taylor without the wheels - doesn't read the field quickly and hesitates to throw to WR who aren't wide open
• Turns 35 years old this May - how much does he have left?

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

I Like Bradford but the injuries are just too much to have a consistent QB, got to go with Alex Smith, plus his age makes him the perfect Bridge QB.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:

No. But sometimes change is made for the sake of change.

 

I would say "yes".  Have you watched many KC games?  Smith can do things that Taylor just can't right now in the way of audibles, reads, and progressions.

[ProcessAccepted]

1 hour ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Bradford is a better qb than smith IMO but has the durability concerns. The question is should we care? If he is not going to be a long term starter/just a bridge and we aren't investing as much of a cap hit does it matter that he has an injury history?

 

Yes!!! We need a guy who's durability we can count on.

Edited January 30, 2018 by ProcessAccepted

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, frostbitmic said:

If you sign Bradford you better count on your rookie or Peterman starting by October.

 

If not August.  People are missing that if you want a guy to be a Bridge, he better not be a "Bridge that goes Out".

 

Here is the clip to Bradford going down on the first series of a preseason game in 2014, 9 months after an ACL that cost him 1/2 the previous season. 

 

You can see what you see, but to me this is classic Bradford - he is dialed in on the throw that he's making (good) and has no awareness/reaction time/ability to just take those steps forward before the throw or sideways/backwards afterwards and avoid the rusher, who has p*ned Long but sees that Sam has released the ball and is trying not to clobber him full bore.  Watch at about :15.    This is a hit that Brees, Rodgers, or Ryan never take.

Edited January 30, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Buffalo Barbarian]

1 hour ago, Like A Mofo said:

Smith I would select, but is Smith really that much of an upgrade over keeping Tyrod and NOT giving up and a 2nd and 4th round pick?

 

Yes, Smith was in the running for MVP  and can actually throw touchdowns. He has just had some bad luck (Andy Reid) in the playoffs.

 

 

[Wsam4031]

I want nothing to do with Sam Bradford being counted on to start for the bills next year. Id take him as a backup but dude has proven time and time again that his knees are shot and cant stay healthy. Count me for one who wants neither one. Id rather take a chance with Bridgewater and a draft pick or cousins and no draft pick then trade for Smith or sign Bradford for anything more than 5-6 million per year

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I want Alex Smith here. He’s much better then people realize. He would be the perfect fit for the offense I feel we want to run. Bradford is good but he’s hurt way to much.

[BillsFan130]

17 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

Yes, Smith was in the running for MVP  and can actually throw touchdowns. He has just had some bad luck (Andy Reid) in the playoffs.

 

 

I agree. I hate the Tyrod/Smith comparison.

 

Smith is a better QB at pretty much every facet of the game.

 

Maybe outside of scrambling I’ll say, but he’s still good at it 

[corta765]

So I voted Bradford under the impression the Bills will be drafting a guy at 21 who I believe will be Mason Rudolph.

 

IF they do not draft a QB then I would rather have Alex Smith.

[LABILLBACKER]

Good breakdown Wayne. I think it will come down to Alex or Sam/Teddy. There's no way obd is paying Cousins 34M. Bradford is the better qb when 100% healthy, but it too much of a risk. I'd give Andy a 3rd & 5th for Alex. Nothing more. I'd try to extend him for a 2nd year and draft Mason R.  That would be my plan. Darnold is the only qb worthy of a trade up and he'll be gone to the Browns.

[Chicken Boo]

Alex Smith, ONLY because of health.  Bradford is the better QB, in my opinion.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For me it’s Smith and not very close. I don’t trust Bradford at all. Alex Smith played the best football of his career and is a good option for the next few years. If the Bills can get him for their 3 and the pick that they got for Ragland that would be great. If they have to insert a 2 instead so be it. 

I'll without hesitation take Bradford over Smith. The main reason is that I am not willing to give up draft assets (up to fourth round pick) for him. He is a player who probably won't start for KC next year. He certainly wouldn't want to be a backup for a young qb because that would spell the end of him as a starter in KC. I have no doubt considering the circumstances he is in he is going to "encourage" the Chiefs to deal him off. 

 

Bradford certainly would be a higher risk player because of his injury history. But because of that he should be easier to attain without giving up much, if anything. Smith last year started the season as a very productive qb. But in the last half of the season he became the same reluctant downfield passer who ended up reflexively throwing underneath. As with Taylor you are who you are. For me that is not good enough. 

[Dorkington]

I'm down with Smith, or keeping Tyrod*

 

* If we keep Tyrod we absolutely must get a deep threat or two again to take the top off of the defense. We sorely missed Sammy/Harvin/Goodwin style of speed this year (yeah yeah they were injured a lot, but they made Safeties think twice)

[BuffaloBillyG]

Of those 2 it would be Alex Smith. Can't help the team when your on the trainer's table.

 

With Smith he could be an answer for a season, maybe 2. Not thrilling by any means but if he was on the Bills last season we likely get past Jacksonville in that game.

 

Of course the downside for me is having to give up at least 1 reasonably good draft pick for a guy his age. 

[SaviorPeterman]

In terms of overall body of work I think Smith is the better option.

 

But in terms of where I think each one would fit into the Bills plans this year I'd go with Bradford since he'd be more comfortable playing the backup/veteran mentor role to Peterman.

[K-9]

I'd prefer Smith, but is it a foregone conclusion that he's gonna be available? If so, I gotta believe there will be many teams sniffing the tires on a deal with KC to get him. Not sure I want to spend too much draft capital on a QB whose ceiling has been firmly established.