Under the Radar QB’s that could rise

[Dkollidas]

We know about Darnold & Rosen (pretty sure they’ll go to the Browns & Giants), as well as other guys that look like 1st round eligible guys, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, & Mason Rudolph.

 

But I feel like there are a lot of other very solid quarterbacks in this class, and wonder if we don’t see one or more of them rise up the boards.

 

I’m looking at the following:

Luke Falk- Washington St.

Ryan Finley-NC State

Jarret Stidham-Auburn 

Riley Ferguson-Memphis

Will Grier-West Virginia 

Clayton Thorson- Northwestern

 

Could any of these guys find their way into the late first or early second round?

 

This is is what I basically know/have heard of these guys:

 

Falk- Accurate, but slight framed guy, not a powerful arm. He’s been benched on multiple occasions this season mid-game, and seems to be regressing.

 

 

Finley- Seems to be a guy that is accurate ands positive is that he currently plays in a pro-style offense. Doesn’t do too much deep passing, probably because his arm only seems adequate in terms of strength. But he seems to very good poise & anticipation, which has helped him develop into a “rhythm passer” 

 

Stidham- Even though he’s only a redshirt sophomore, this guy intrigues me a lot. 

He was a top prospect coming out of high school, was doing well at Baylor, then moved on when the programs issues began. Had a very good year when he transferred to JUCO, and has yet to really make his mark in a very run-oriented offense at Auburn. I think he could be a riser if Auburn gets to the college playoff and we see Stidham so we’ll on the national stage. I wonder if he’ll come out this year, or try another year as the starter at Auburn which would make a lot of sense, so I can’t blame him if he does.

 

Grier- He’s accurate, not the biggest guy, but has decent enough size. Has some

mobility as well. The main thing is he got busted for performance enhancers, how will that affect teams views on him throughout the process.

 

Ferguson- Big kid who left Tennessee, took time off, ended up at Memphis, and is pretty

much lighting it up..

 

*please feel free to add anything to what I’ve got.

 Additionally, of all these guys (or even some that I haven’t mentioned), how would you rate these guys, and could any of them sneak into late 1st or 2nd Round at all? 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Not a fan of any of those guys.

[KDIGGZ]

All of those guys are projects. We don't have time to develop a QB. I expect them to draft a QB high that is ready to play and pair them with a veteran who they can learn from

[GunnerBill]

Falk is a 3rd or 4th rounder.

 

Finley, Stidham and Thorson on a very small sample size of each I have "draftable, day 3" next to.  

 

Grier?  Wouldn't take him if the alternative was playing Fred Jackson at Quarterback.  

 

Not seen Ferguson.  

[Woodman19]

10 hours ago, kdiggz said:

All of those guys are projects. We don't have time to develop a QB. I expect them to draft a QB high that is ready to play and pair them with a veteran who they can learn from

Every team has time to develop a QB if the end result is something special, patience is another story though.  I personally would wait 2-3 years if the end result was Dan Marino.

[KDIGGZ]

23 minutes ago, Woodman19 said:

Every team has time to develop a QB if the end result is something special, patience is another story though.  I personally would wait 2-3 years if the end result was Dan Marino.

Dan Marino played as a rookie and was good from the start.  What QB's were developed from late round picks to be HOF type QB's after sitting on the bench?  Maybe a couple in the entire history of the NFL but it is EXTREMELY rare.  It would be like winning the lottery.  You have a much better chance finding a franchise QB at the top of the 1st round so we can't mess around if we really want a good QB.

[Woodman19]

1 minute ago, kdiggz said:

Dan Marino played as a rookie and was good from the start.  What QB's were developed from late round picks to be HOF type QB's after sitting on the bench?  Maybe a couple in the entire history of the NFL but it is EXTREMELY rare.  It would be like winning the lottery.  You have a much better chance finding a franchise QB at the top of the 1st round so we can't mess around if we really want a good QB.

The point is, if the end result is special then you wait.  Just because fans are impatient and feel we "don't have time" doesn't make it true.

[Luka]

After interviews and workouts, I think Thornson will be a 2nd rounder and I am hoping a Buffalo Bill. High character, good arm, great mechanics and footwork, athletic, accurate and most importantly produces on a bad team.

[thenorthremembers]

1 minute ago, Luka said:

After interviews and workouts, I think Thornson will be a 2nd rounder and I am hoping a Buffalo Bill. High character, good arm, great mechanics and footwork, athletic, accurate and most importantly produces on a bad team.

 

For the life of me I dont know what I am missing when I watch Thorson.   Aside from being a big guy and having high character I dont see any of what you describe here.   Granted he played very good defenses this year, but even in comparison with the field of quarterbacks who also played those defenses he threw less touchdowns and more interceptions.

 

I think he needs to go back to school, because right now I see a quarterback very much in the mold of someone like Tom Savage.  The packaging looks great but the play isn't where it needs to be.

 

Luke Falk has been mentioned as a 1st round prospect this year, same with Ryan Finley so I dont see them as currently "under the radar."  Personally, I dont think either is a 1st round prospect, but the word is out none the less.

 

If you want truly under the radar guys who could end up making a late charge in the draft three guys come to mind

Drew Lock Missouri

Mike White Western Kentucky

Logan Woodside Toledo

[Luka]

3 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

For the life of me I dont know what I am missing when I watch Thorson.   Aside from being a big guy and having high character I dont see any of what you describe here.   Granted he played very good defenses this year, but even in comparison with the field of quarterbacks who also played those defenses he threw less touchdowns and more interceptions.

 

I think he needs to go back to school, because right now I see a quarterback very much in the mold of someone like Tom Savage.  The packaging looks great but the play isn't where it needs to be.

 

Luke Falk has been mentioned as a 1st round prospect this year, same with Ryan Finley so I dont see them as currently "under the radar."  Personally, I dont think either is a 1st round prospect, but the word is out none the less.

 

If you want truly under the radar guys who could end up making a late charge in the draft three guys come to mind

Drew Lock Missouri

Mike White Western Kentucky

Logan Woodside Toledo

 

I'm not as interested in his stats. College QB stats are very misleading. They play wildly different systems, wildly different levels of competition. I just watch his feet, watch his eyes and watch his delivery. Try to get a sense of what the route should be and where he's placing the ball. I don't see anything you have to change in those aspects. He's not a guy that needs to work on his mechanics or change his delivery. Gutted out 3 big wins against Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State and really has average to below average talent around him.

 

Falk is a hot mess. Sometimes when you watch a guy throw into coverage you think to yourself "that was a gutsy throw." All Falk does is throw into coverage, which tells me he might not be able to read a defense at all. The Oregon game stood out as a game where he was regularly throwing into double coverage. His arm doesn't look to be any stronger than any of the tier 2 guys either.

[thenorthremembers]

2 minutes ago, Luka said:

 

I'm not as interested in his stats. College QB stats are very misleading. They play wildly different systems, wildly different levels of competition. I just watch his feet, watch his eyes and watch his delivery. Try to get a sense of what the route should be and where he's placing the ball. I don't see anything you have to change in those aspects. He's not a guy that needs to work on his mechanics or change his delivery. Gutted out 3 big wins against Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State and really has average to below average talent around him.

 

Falk is a hot mess. Sometimes when you watch a guy throw into coverage you think to yourself "that was a gutsy throw." All Falk does is throw into coverage, which tells me he might not be able to read a defense at all. The Oregon game stood out as a game where he was regularly throwing into double coverage. His arm doesn't look to be any stronger than any of the tier 2 guys either.

 

I can understand your point on the stats.   I point to that only because I've only been able to watch one game of his this year.  It's possible he was just having a bad game that day but watching him I thought he looked slow and I wasnt overally impressed with his decision making.  I have to go back and watch a few more games before I make my mind up.

 

Agree on Falk.  Honestly think the guy is undraftable but we will see what happens.

[Luka]

13 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

I can understand your point on the stats.   I point to that only because I've only been able to watch one game of his this year.  It's possible he was just having a bad game that day but watching him I thought he looked slow and I wasnt overally impressed with his decision making.  I have to go back and watch a few more games before I make my mind up.

 

Agree on Falk.  Honestly think the guy is undraftable but we will see what happens.

 

I mean his stats do tell part of the story but some of his throws I wonder what the outcome would be if he had a guy in the same league as even Zay Jones. We'll see though, obviously if it was an exact science no debate would be needed. He has definitely had a couple of bad games, he's a lot like Flacco or  (Eli) Manning in that way so that would be something to take into consideration. I've read in some places that scouts think he's pressing because Northwestern just isn't that good.

Edited November 30, 2017 by Luka

[Woodman19]

53 minutes ago, Luka said:

 

I'm not as interested in his stats. College QB stats are very misleading. They play wildly different systems, wildly different levels of competition. I just watch his feet, watch his eyes and watch his delivery. Try to get a sense of what the route should be and where he's placing the ball. I don't see anything you have to change in those aspects. He's not a guy that needs to work on his mechanics or change his delivery. Gutted out 3 big wins against Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State and really has average to below average talent around him.

 

Falk is a hot mess. Sometimes when you watch a guy throw into coverage you think to yourself "that was a gutsy throw." All Falk does is throw into coverage, which tells me he might not be able to read a defense at all. The Oregon game stood out as a game where he was regularly throwing into double coverage. His arm doesn't look to be any stronger than any of the tier 2 guys either.

Fantastic post, agree with everything you said.  

[KDIGGZ]

2 hours ago, Woodman19 said:

The point is, if the end result is special then you wait.  Just because fans are impatient and feel we "don't have time" doesn't make it true.

I understand what you are saying but the liklihood of that happening is slim and none.  Josh Rosen is a sure thing starting NFL QB.  Any of these other guys and you are just rolling the dice and we don't have 2-3 years to develop someone who most likely will never amount to anything.  You saw what happend with Cardale.  They gave up after 1 season because we can't hold a roster spot for a 3rd string QB

[Luka]

2 hours ago, kdiggz said:

I understand what you are saying but the liklihood of that happening is slim and none.  Josh Rosen is a sure thing starting NFL QB.  Any of these other guys and you are just rolling the dice and we don't have 2-3 years to develop someone who most likely will never amount to anything.  You saw what happend with Cardale.  They gave up after 1 season because we can't hold a roster spot for a 3rd string QB

 

Well I think that had more to do with him not being "their guy" as you saw with a good portion of the roster. And no player coming out of college is a sure thing. Rosen has question marks, just like everyone else. It will take the right situation, right coaching etc.

[LeGOATski]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 Not seen Ferguson.  

 

I haven't seen him play, either, but I know he comes from the Mike Norvell system, which is very QB friendly. One-read pass plays and tons of zone read runs. He simplifies it, so they can go very fast.

[elijah]

On 11/29/2017 at 12:16 AM, Dkollidas said:

Stidham- Even though he’s only a redshirt sophomore, this guy intrigues me a lot. 

He was a top prospect coming out of high school, was doing well at Baylor, then moved on when the programs issues began. Had a very good year when he transferred to JUCO, and has yet to really make his mark in a very run-oriented offense at Auburn. I think he could be a riser if Auburn gets to the college playoff and we see Stidham so we’ll on the national stage. I wonder if he’ll come out this year, or try another year as the starter at Auburn which would make a lot of sense, so I can’t blame him if he does.

Stidham will stay and be one of the top available quarterbacks next year

[4merper4mer]

On November 30, 2017 at 4:58 AM, GunnerBill said:

Falk is a 3rd or 4th rounder.

 

Finley, Stidham and Thorson on a very small sample size of each I have "draftable, day 3" next to.  

 

Grier?  Wouldn't take him if the alternative was playing Fred Jackson at Quarterback.  

 

Not seen Ferguson.  

Thoughts on Keane?

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Thoughts on Keane?

 

Not seen. 

[Billsfansinceday1]

I have seen Riley Ferguson a few times and he is very impressive.

 

I haven't seen the rest so will trust others.

 

Grier is going back for his senior year so I look forward to seeing him next year.

[OldTimer1960]

On 11/29/2017 at 9:58 PM, kdiggz said:

All of those guys are projects. We don't have time to develop a QB. I expect them to draft a QB high that is ready to play and pair them with a veteran who they can learn from

I think that is pretty short-sighted and I don't expect that any of the draft eligible QBs will be completely ready to play right away.  The NFL is a big step up in competition and each player is likely going into a scheme he never played before.

Edited December 25, 2017 by OldTimer1960

[NewEraBills]

I'm a Luke Falk fan.  He has some questions about arm strength but there is one trait that he has that is actually more refined than most of the guys in this draft.  He goes through his reads and progressions faster than just about anyone in the draft.  When you turn on the tape watch his helmet at the snap.  His head is on a swivel.  Most of the time the football is out of his hands.  He likes throwing over the middle of the field.  Now sometimes he holds onto the football too long but I think a lot of his issues can be easily corrected except for arm strength.  That's the question mark.

 

Falk is tough for me to grade.  I see him as a 2nd -4th round guy with a lot of talent.  And I definitely think he can be a special QB.

[KDIGGZ]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think that is pretty short-sighted and I don't expect that any of the draft eligible QBs will be completely ready to play right away.  The NFL is a big step up in competition and each player is likely going into a scheme he never played before.

Most 1st round QB's play right away these days. There's only so many roster spots available. Teams don't have room for project players. When was the last time a team drafted and developed a QB? Jimmy G is the only one I can think of and he's not even on the team that developed him anymore. When you are a team like the Pats you can develop someone. Other teams don't have that luxury. Rosen is a day 1 NFL starter. We need someone like that. Otherwise plan B is get a veteran QB and maybe then once that position is solidified you have an opportunity to develop a young guy. We need a QB now so if you are investing heavily at the position it needs to be someone who can play and make an impact right away

[NewEraBills]

13 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

Most 1st round QB's play right away these days. There's only so many roster spots available. Teams don't have room for project players. When was the last time a team drafted and developed a QB? Jimmy G is the only one I can think of and he's not even on the team that developed him anymore. When you are a team like the Pats you can develop someone. Other teams don't have that luxury. Rosen is a day 1 NFL starter. We need someone like that. Otherwise plan B is get a veteran QB and maybe then once that position is solidified you have an opportunity to develop a young guy. We need a QB now so if you are investing heavily at the position it needs to be someone who can play and make an impact right away

 

 

Goff, Wentz, Watson, Trubisky none of them started right away.  

[Buffalo Barbarian]

2 hours ago, NewEraBills said:

 

 

Goff, Wentz, Watson, Trubisky none of them started right away.  

 

Who started ahead of Wentz?

[KDIGGZ]

4 hours ago, NewEraBills said:

 

 

Goff, Wentz, Watson, Trubisky none of them started right away.  

?? All of them did so thank you for proving my point

[Dkollidas]

1 hour ago, kdiggz said:

?? All of them did so thank you for proving my point

Well Wentz did, and Watson started in what, week 2? But Trubisky and Goff both sat for a while before starting. It’s not as common as it used to be, but i can still see the benefits to doing it.

[KDIGGZ]

1 hour ago, Dkollidas said:

Well Wentz did, and Watson started in what, week 2? But Trubisky and Goff both sat for a while before starting. It’s not as common as it used to be, but i can still see the benefits to doing it.

Define "a while." All of them started year 1. Nobody sits anymore, especially high draft picks. You can't justify some no name QB from the 4th round sitting on your roster and developing for a few years like they should. They can either can play right away or they are gone pretty quickly.

 

All the more reason to have a developmental league imo. I would definitely take a shot on these types of guys if I could send them off to the minor leagues and see if they turn into something. They aren't going to develop with limited reps in practice and not playing in the games

[Dkollidas]

1 hour ago, kdiggz said:

Define "a while." All of them started year 1. Nobody sits anymore, especially high draft picks. You can't justify some no name QB from the 4th round sitting on your roster and developing for a few years like they should. They can either can play right away or they are gone pretty quickly.

 

All the more reason to have a developmental league imo. I would definitely take a shot on these types of guys if I could send them off to the minor leagues and see if they turn into something. They aren't going to develop with limited reps in practice and not playing in the games

 

I would say 4 weeks is a while. A good month of regular season games just to see the play live from the sidelines, how the calls are made, how an offense is run, etc.

 

But I agree with you for the most part. And I totally agree on the point of a developmental league. They really need it. It would be really cool. 

[NewEraBills]

15 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

Who started ahead of Wentz?

 

 

I stand corrected he did start from day 1.  Goff did not.

14 hours ago, kdiggz said:

?? All of them did so thank you for proving my point

 

They did not.  It depends on what you mean by "right away"?  If you mean week 1 then you are wrong which is what I took you to mean.  Only Wentz started week 1.  Watson did not start and would have never seen the field as early as he did if Savage did not get hurt.  Trubisky did not start week 1.

[KDIGGZ]

13 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

 

I stand corrected he did start from day 1.  Goff did not.

 

They did not.  It depends on what you mean by "right away"?  If you mean week 1 then you are wrong which is what I took you to mean.  Only Wentz started week 1.  Watson did not start and would have never seen the field as early as he did if Savage did not get hurt.  Trubisky did not start week 1.

right away as in year 1.  they had Goff on the bench for a few games and people were freaking out and they had to play him.  you can't have a QB sitting on the bench and developing.  they need to play.  drafting a later round guy in hopes he will develop does not work and nobody does that.  they are either good right away or they flame out and the main reason is because you can't carry a guy that can't play on your roster, there's not enough spots.  if they see they stink right off the bat then they are quick to cut them loose (Cardale).  which is really too bad because at 21-23 yrs old who can really say they were the best versions of themselves at that point in their lives?  if the Bills get a veteran starter or stick with Tyrod and then also draft a QB, how much longer do you think Peterman has?  no time to develop.  you either do well right off the bat when you get your shot or you are on your way out of the league.  it happens that fast

[NewEraBills]

2 hours ago, kdiggz said:

right away as in year 1.  they had Goff on the bench for a few games and people were freaking out and they had to play him.  you can't have a QB sitting on the bench and developing.  they need to play.  drafting a later round guy in hopes he will develop does not work and nobody does that.  they are either good right away or they flame out and the main reason is because you can't carry a guy that can't play on your roster, there's not enough spots.  if they see they stink right off the bat then they are quick to cut them loose (Cardale).  which is really too bad because at 21-23 yrs old who can really say they were the best versions of themselves at that point in their lives?  if the Bills get a veteran starter or stick with Tyrod and then also draft a QB, how much longer do you think Peterman has?  no time to develop.  you either do well right off the bat when you get your shot or you are on your way out of the league.  it happens that fast

 

 

So we just needed clarification on "right away" that's all.  I think as far as guys panning out whether taken early and thrown in "right away" or taken a little later and given time to develop really hinges on their situation.  I don't think everyone's situation can be described the same way.  In any case, I'm eager to see what we will do.

[John from Riverside]

If we are gonna get a qb.....lets get one that doesnt embarress himself when he steps in for Tyrod Taylor.....who we are trying to upgrade from

[Buffalo Barbarian]

8 hours ago, John from Hemet said:

If we are gonna get a qb.....lets get one that doesnt embarress himself when he steps in for Tyrod Taylor.....who we are trying to upgrade from

 

A rookie is going to make a lot of mistakes, so there could a drop off from Tyrod. What matters is getting a guy who will be better in the long run.

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

On 12/25/2017 at 2:29 PM, NewEraBills said:

I'm a Luke Falk fan.  He has some questions about arm strength but there is one trait that he has that is actually more refined than most of the guys in this draft.  He goes through his reads and progressions faster than just about anyone in the draft.  When you turn on the tape watch his helmet at the snap.  His head is on a swivel.  Most of the time the football is out of his hands.  He likes throwing over the middle of the field.  Now sometimes he holds onto the football too long but I think a lot of his issues can be easily corrected except for arm strength.  That's the question mark.

 

Falk is tough for me to grade.  I see him as a 2nd -4th round guy with a lot of talent.  And I definitely think he can be a special QB.

 

I really like Falk for the reasons you mentioned. He sees the field and goes through progressions. I think he is a guy who has the potential to become a "Tom Brady." I'm not saying he will be the GOAT, but he is an undervalued guy who lacks arm strength and athleticism. I think he can build arm strength. He has been amazing at times and truly AWFUL at other times. My biggest thing is that his accuracy is really hard to ignore. The bottom line is that I think he is a system quarterback. I think he'd be a great fit in any West Coast offense.  He could be the next Tom Brady, or the next Kellen Moore. 

[BananaB]

Luke Falk could turn out to be the best QB in this draft.... I think his production had dipped this season because he had a broken left wrist. It’s not his throwing arm but it had to effected how he played, sure he tried to protect it as much as possible come game time. 

 

His arm is good enough to make all the throws and he is super accurate which is something that you just can’t teach. He’s real comfortable in the pocket, moves well, maintains poise and will take a hit to make a throw. 

 

I love Mayfield but all the hype right now may lead to us having to move up to get him. I’d rather take Falk in the second.... I want one of these guys. 

Edited January 6, 2018 by BananaB

[OldTimer1960]

On 1/5/2018 at 9:40 PM, BananaB said:

Luke Falk could turn out to be the best QB in this draft.... I think his production had dipped this season because he had a broken left wrist. It’s not his throwing arm but it had to effected how he played, sure he tried to protect it as much as possible come game time. 

 

His arm is good enough to make all the throws and he is super accurate which is something that you just can’t teach. He’s real comfortable in the pocket, moves well, maintains poise and will take a hit to make a throw. 

 

I love Mayfield but all the hype right now may lead to us having to move up to get him. I’d rather take Falk in the second.... I want one of these guys. 

If you are looking at his completion % only to conclude that he is accurate, look at how many throws are behind or just past the line of scrimmage.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

20 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

If you are looking at his completion % only to conclude that he is accurate, look at how many throws are behind or just past the line of scrimmage.

 

Not many

 

 

[JaCrispy]

On 12/25/2017 at 2:29 PM, NewEraBills said:

I'm a Luke Falk fan.  He has some questions about arm strength but there is one trait that he has that is actually more refined than most of the guys in this draft.  He goes through his reads and progressions faster than just about anyone in the draft.  When you turn on the tape watch his helmet at the snap.  His head is on a swivel.  Most of the time the football is out of his hands.  He likes throwing over the middle of the field.  Now sometimes he holds onto the football too long but I think a lot of his issues can be easily corrected except for arm strength.  That's the question mark.

 

Falk is tough for me to grade.  I see him as a 2nd -4th round guy with a lot of talent.  And I definitely think he can be a special QB.

I used to be a Luke Falk fan, but the more I watched of him, he just doesn’t seem to be a gamer...he seems to shrink when the lights are brightest imo.

[The Now Moment]

On 12/25/2017 at 10:38 PM, kdiggz said:

Define "a while." All of them started year 1. Nobody sits anymore, especially high draft picks. You can't justify some no name QB from the 4th round sitting on your roster and developing for a few years like they should. They can either can play right away or they are gone pretty quickly.

 

All the more reason to have a developmental league imo. I would definitely take a shot on these types of guys if I could send them off to the minor leagues and see if they turn into something. They aren't going to develop with limited reps in practice and not in the games

Mahomes and Jimmy G...some QBs still sit but they have to be in the right situation to do so.  If you don't have a veteran QB that can help the young kid then put him out there but it still happens.  Naming all the QBs taken 1 and 2 and saying how they didn't sit is a pretty selective group.  Mahomes sat, Jimmy G sat, Cousins sat, Derek Carr was supposed to sit but injury happened...the list goes on.  Fans of teams are just impatient and call for peoples heads when the rookies don't play.  Let the kids develop their off the field game first before jumping right in and looking like trash.  Watson did well this year because O'reilly used a very similar playbook to the one Watson had in college so the transition was easy.  That transition isn't always easy, let the kids develop their mental game (playbook, presnap reads, watching more tape on NFL style defenses) which is a completely different level in the NFL.