I wonder where the professional TT haters are now?

[Scott7975]

 

But the 3 & out stat still counts for what it is, because it's in comparison to all the other teams doing the same thing. They also could be chewing clock or kicking FGs, so it's fair to point out the Bills have the 2nd most 3 & outs in the league (which isn't a good thing no matter how you cut it).

 

I remember at the time I did look into it, as it was after the Seahawks game in prime time where the refs screwed up that series before half time. I remember talking about it a ton on the old BBMB, but we no longer have access to those threads unfortunately :/

 

It would be a bit too hard to go back now & review them again, but I remember vividly talking about it quite a bit last season. In fact, I remember it being 1-13 or 1-14 until we beat Jacksonville 28-21. Jacksonville went up by 21-20 at the start of the 4th quarter, but then we scored soon after to take & keep the lead. So in actuality he may be 2-13 / 2-14 in games we go down by a single point at any time during the 4th quarter. I'll go back & see what I can find & post the results.

 

 

No need to go hunt. I know it was bad.

 

I would like to see the 3 and out stat compared to other teams. I have not found that 3 and out stat actually posted anywhere besides Rodak who only spoke of our team and not our ranking. I would have no problem going through game logs and fixing the bogusness of the stat and ranking teams accordingly.

 

A stat I found today on a stat site said the Bills are 13th in third down efficiency and 7th in third down conversions per game. So something doesn't jive. I know from my own research that the Bills 3 and out percentage is 30.5. Sorry, I just can not include drives we scored, burned clock, got the ball with 6 seconds left in the half, or were kneeling down at the end of a game.

[Yoho]

...why are "W's" such a negative with TT at the helm, whether he puts up pedestrian numbers or not?......OBD STILL selects a QB in round 1 of 2018 regardless....guess after a 17 year fuggin' drought, we can get picky and pissy about WHO gets the "W".....been following this club since 1962 and I think 2017 is the "year of the fickle".....now we want to get selective as to WHO leads us to the hopeful playoffs in 2017?......if TT can , we want to decline a berth?.....got it..............

 

Only since 1962? You didn't even get a chance to chime in on the Richie Lucas/Tommy O'Connell QB controversy.

[Fadingpain]

It seems almost inarguable that Tyrod leading the offense of 2015 or 2016 with either the 2014 or 2017 defense would have made the playoffs.

 

And only because we were coached by Insane Clown Posse in those two years did he not.

Disagree; there is definitely an argument to be made that we would not have made the playoffs. That's a HUGE jump to "assume".

 

No way to know now. No point in discussing it really.

[Kelly the Dog]

Disagree; there is definitely an argument to be made that we would not have made the playoffs. That's a HUGE jump to "assume".

 

No way to know now. No point in discussing it really.

Unless you watched the Bills games. If you didn't watch the games then sure. You could just use stats.

[transplantbillsfan]

Wentz has never come back from a 14 point deficit. He's never won a game where the opponent scored more than 24 points. His 2 wins where the opponent scored exactly 24 points, those 2 teams currently have a combined 0-8 record, and the Eagles beat them by a combined 5 total points, including one win with a 61 yard field goal as time expired.

 

Is that the guy that's impressed you more than Tyrod has? Or were you thinking of someone else?

It's very simple:

 

The grass is always greener on the other side

[Scott7975]

Disagree; there is definitely an argument to be made that we would not have made the playoffs. That's a HUGE jump to "assume".

 

No way to know now. No point in discussing it really.

Well lets see... The Bills scored 24 or more points in 11 games last year and also threw away the last Jets game. Our current defense is giving up 13.5 ppg and hasn't allowed over 17 points to any team yet.

 

I would say the argument isn't a huge jump at all. Its a pretty logical argument that we most likely would have made the playoffs.

Edited October 7, 2017 by Scott7975

[Dr. K]

"professional" TT haters? You mean you can get paid for it? Do you have to declare the income?

[EasternOHBillsFan]

"professional" TT haters? You mean you can get paid for it? Do you have to declare the income?

 

I already did. I had to fill out the 2018EZ form for the draft when we draft a QB to replace TT.

 

[BigDingus]

Ok, so did some research, Tyrod is 2-15 when we trail in the 4th quarter at any point (whether we begin the 4th behind or if we get behind by even a point).

2015:

Lost to Pats (32 to 40)
Lost to Giants (10 to 24) - Started 4th Qt 3 to 16
Win against Titans (14 to 13) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 10
Lost to Pats (13 to 20) - Started 4th Qt 10 to 20

Lost to Chiefs (22 to 30) - Started 4th Qt 22 to 24

Lost to Eagles (20 to 23) -Started 4th Qt tied 20 to 20
Lost to Redskins (25 to 35) - Started 4th Qt 17 to 28

2016:

 

-Lost to Ravens (7 to 13) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 10

-Lost to Jets (31 to 37) - Started 4th Qt 24 to 27

-Lost to Dolphins (25 to 28) - Started 4th Qt leading 17 to 14

-Lost to Pats (25 to 41)

-Lost to Seahawks (25 to 31) - Started 4th Qt 17 to 28

-Win against Jaguars (28 to 21) - Started 4th leading 20 to 14

-Lost to Raiders (24 to 38) - Started 4th Qt leading 24 to 23

-Lost to Steelers (20 to 27) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 21
-Lost to Dolphins (31 to 34) - Started 4th Qt 24 to 28

2017:

-Lost to Panthers (3 to 9) - Started 4th Qt 3 to 9

So in addition to the scores, I added what the score was at the beginning of the 4th Qt as long as we were within 2 scores (a deficit that is at least able to be overcome) to show where we stood.

*2 of the 15 losses were blowouts against the Patriots. One in 2015 & one in 2016. By the time the 4th Qt came around, there was no realistic hope in any QB to bring us back.

*2 of the losses we began the 4th Qt with a lead. Once was against the Dolphins, leading 17 to 14. The other was against the Raiders, leading 24 to 23.
*In the other 11 losses we averaged a deficit of exactly 7 points, aka a single TD + extra point going into the 4th.
*In 1 of his 2 wins, we had a lead going into the 4th - Up 20 to 14 against Jacksonville to begin the quarter, to which they quickly scored a TD putting them up 20 to 21. We scored 4 mins later & kept the lead. The other win was against the Titans in 2015 when we began the 4th Qt down by 3 points.

In other words, if we are behind in the 4th quarter we do not win. Tyrod historically has not been able to will us from behind to win games. If we need to rely on the passing game, we lose. If we need more than a single score, we lose. In 11 of those losses, we averaged a deficit of a single TD.

All I'm saying is I am not confident in Tyrod ever getting us a win when we're behind. If we don't have a lead by the end of the 3rd quarter, history shows we lose.

[Bill_with_it]

Remember passing yards win games, not touchdowns

You win you are the champion.

Edited October 7, 2017 by Bill_with_it

[Real McClappy]

Ok, so did some research, Tyrod is 2-15 when we trail in the 4th quarter at any point (whether we begin the 4th behind or if we get behind by even a point).

 

2015:

 

Lost to Pats (32 to 40)

Lost to Giants (10 to 24) - Started 4th Qt 3 to 16

Win against Titans (14 to 13) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 10

Lost to Pats (13 to 20) - Started 4th Qt 10 to 20

Lost to Chiefs (22 to 30) - Started 4th Qt 22 to 24

Lost to Eagles (20 to 23) -Started 4th Qt tied 20 to 20

Lost to Redskins (25 to 35) - Started 4th Qt 17 to 28

 

2016:

 

-Lost to Ravens (7 to 13) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 10

-Lost to Jets (31 to 37) - Started 4th Qt 24 to 27

-Lost to Dolphins (25 to 28) - Started 4th Qt leading 17 to 14

-Lost to Pats (25 to 41)

-Lost to Seahawks (25 to 31) - Started 4th Qt 17 to 28

-Win against Jaguars (28 to 21) - Started 4th leading 20 to 14

-Lost to Raiders (24 to 38) - Started 4th Qt leading 24 to 23

-Lost to Steelers (20 to 27) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 21

-Lost to Dolphins (31 to 34) - Started 4th Qt 24 to 28

 

2017:

 

-Lost to Panthers (3 to 9) - Started 4th Qt 3 to 9

 

So in addition to the scores, I added what the score was at the beginning of the 4th Qt as long as we were within 2 scores (a deficit that is at least able to be overcome) to show where we stood.

*2 of the 15 losses were blowouts against the Patriots. One in 2015 & one in 2016. By the time the 4th Qt came around, there was no realistic hope in any QB to bring us back.

*2 of the losses we began the 4th Qt with a lead. Once was against the Dolphins, leading 17 to 14. The other was against the Raiders, leading 24 to 23.

*In the other 11 losses we averaged a deficit of exactly 7 points, aka a single TD + extra point going into the 4th.

*In 1 of his 2 wins, we had a lead going into the 4th - Up 20 to 14 against Jacksonville to begin the quarter, to which they quickly scored a TD putting them up 20 to 21. We scored 4 mins later & kept the lead. The other win was against the Titans in 2015 when we began the 4th Qt down by 3 points.

 

In other words, if we are behind in the 4th quarter we do not win. Tyrod historically has not been able to will us from behind to win games. If we need to rely on the passing game, we lose. If we need more than a single score, we lose. In 11 of those losses, we averaged a deficit of a single TD.

 

All I'm saying is I am not confident in Tyrod ever getting us a win when we're behind. If we don't have a lead by the end of the 3rd quarter, history shows we lose.

 

Does this reply = a professional TT hater?

 

Thanks for taking the time to research this. It's a very interesting and important stat.

 

Hopefully with our solid D play this year the numbers turn.

Edited October 7, 2017 by Real McCoy

[BillsBytheBay]

You win you are the champion.

oh no.... it's the truth....ive been told this for three years now. Touchdowns mean nothing to the scoreboard. Give me yards!!!! Edited October 7, 2017 by JaxBills

[BigDingus]

Does this reply = a professional TT hater?

 

Thanks for taking the time to research this. It's a very interesting and important stat.

 

Hopefully with our solid D play this year the numbers turn.

 

Hahaha I swear! I don't hate him at all!

 

I just knew I remembered that stat from somewhere, and then felt that yeah, I should do some research before spouting off something that might not be accurate.

 

I think he's the right choice for QB for this team with what we've had the past few seasons, and I do believe he's talented. I don't know if it's our offensive coordinators & play calling, if our O-line can't block for crap, our WR's are just bad or what....but people dismiss his low passing yards saying they don't matter are only half correct.

 

The stats themselves may not matter, but what they achieve in the game does. How many times do we force a team to punt at their 40, leading to us having to start drives from inside the 20? Quite often. Well even a single first down or 2 helps greatly. Teams stack the box and try to make Tyrod beat us through the air, but he rarely does, so we're forced to punt going 3 & out....A LOT.

 

This just puts the opposing offense back in good field position, making us rely on our defense once again to stop them. Most QB's average over 200 yards, and on a good day a few times a year hit 300+. This usually signals sustained drives, a few big plays, and 3rd down conversions. It helps reverse field position in the case of a punt, it helps keep corners backed off the line so they don't make plays in the backfield tackling RBs from the outside.

 

And people then say sarcastically "I guess TD's don't mean anything" or "points win games, not yards," as if Tyrod is getting TD's to compensate for no passing yards. He's not. He's tied for 20th with 4 other players. If our run game was killing it, I guess it wouldn't matter, but Mike Tolbert is the lone TD for the season rushing :/

[Buffalo Boy]

...why are "W's" such a negative with TT at the helm, whether he puts up pedestrian numbers or not?......OBD STILL selects a QB in round 1 of 2018 regardless....guess after a 17 year fuggin' drought, we can get picky and pissy about WHO gets the "W".....been following this club since 1962 and I think 2017 is the "year of the fickle".....now we want to get selective as to WHO leads us to the hopeful playoffs in 2017?......if TT can , we want to decline a berth?.....got it..............

Personally enjoyed the HECK out of last weeks game. Yelled at the TV with GLEE for the first time in a LONG time watching this team.

We got two calls we just don't get from the refs. TT threw some nice balls including the crossing route TD.

But, to kill a dead horse, it was a game where just about every bounce went our way.

TT looked like TT. It wont be enough at some point.

[Scott7975]

Ok, so did some research, Tyrod is 2-15 when we trail in the 4th quarter at any point (whether we begin the 4th behind or if we get behind by even a point).

 

2015:

 

Lost to Pats (32 to 40)

Lost to Giants (10 to 24) - Started 4th Qt 3 to 16

Win against Titans (14 to 13) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 10

Lost to Pats (13 to 20) - Started 4th Qt 10 to 20

Lost to Chiefs (22 to 30) - Started 4th Qt 22 to 24

Lost to Eagles (20 to 23) -Started 4th Qt tied 20 to 20

Lost to Redskins (25 to 35) - Started 4th Qt 17 to 28

 

2016:

 

-Lost to Ravens (7 to 13) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 10

-Lost to Jets (31 to 37) - Started 4th Qt 24 to 27

-Lost to Dolphins (25 to 28) - Started 4th Qt leading 17 to 14

-Lost to Pats (25 to 41)

-Lost to Seahawks (25 to 31) - Started 4th Qt 17 to 28

-Win against Jaguars (28 to 21) - Started 4th leading 20 to 14

-Lost to Raiders (24 to 38) - Started 4th Qt leading 24 to 23

-Lost to Steelers (20 to 27) - Started 4th Qt 7 to 21

-Lost to Dolphins (31 to 34) - Started 4th Qt 24 to 28

 

2017:

 

-Lost to Panthers (3 to 9) - Started 4th Qt 3 to 9

 

So in addition to the scores, I added what the score was at the beginning of the 4th Qt as long as we were within 2 scores (a deficit that is at least able to be overcome) to show where we stood.

*2 of the 15 losses were blowouts against the Patriots. One in 2015 & one in 2016. By the time the 4th Qt came around, there was no realistic hope in any QB to bring us back.

*2 of the losses we began the 4th Qt with a lead. Once was against the Dolphins, leading 17 to 14. The other was against the Raiders, leading 24 to 23.

*In the other 11 losses we averaged a deficit of exactly 7 points, aka a single TD + extra point going into the 4th.

*In 1 of his 2 wins, we had a lead going into the 4th - Up 20 to 14 against Jacksonville to begin the quarter, to which they quickly scored a TD putting them up 20 to 21. We scored 4 mins later & kept the lead. The other win was against the Titans in 2015 when we began the 4th Qt down by 3 points.

 

In other words, if we are behind in the 4th quarter we do not win. Tyrod historically has not been able to will us from behind to win games. If we need to rely on the passing game, we lose. If we need more than a single score, we lose. In 11 of those losses, we averaged a deficit of a single TD.

 

All I'm saying is I am not confident in Tyrod ever getting us a win when we're behind. If we don't have a lead by the end of the 3rd quarter, history shows we lose.

 

 

Nice job. I'm higher on Tyrod then you are, but I always appreciate when people put in the work to collect actual data. I love to collect and research data myself so that I don't just fall for media misleading data.

 

Kudos man.

[Real McClappy]

 

Hahaha I swear! I don't hate him at all!

 

I just knew I remembered that stat from somewhere, and then felt that yeah, I should do some research before spouting off something that might not be accurate.

 

I think he's the right choice for QB for this team with what we've had the past few seasons, and I do believe he's talented. I don't know if it's our offensive coordinators & play calling, if our O-line can't block for crap, our WR's are just bad or what....but people dismiss his low passing yards saying they don't matter are only half correct.

 

The stats themselves may not matter, but what they achieve in the game does. How many times do we force a team to punt at their 40, leading to us having to start drives from inside the 20? Quite often. Well even a single first down or 2 helps greatly. Teams stack the box and try to make Tyrod beat us through the air, but he rarely does, so we're forced to punt going 3 & out....A LOT.

 

This just puts the opposing offense back in good field position, making us rely on our defense once again to stop them. Most QB's average over 200 yards, and on a good day a few times a year hit 300+. This usually signals sustained drives, a few big plays, and 3rd down conversions. It helps reverse field position in the case of a punt, it helps keep corners backed off the line so they don't make plays in the backfield tackling RBs from the outside.

 

And people then say sarcastically "I guess TD's don't mean anything" or "points win games, not yards," as if Tyrod is getting TD's to compensate for no passing yards. He's not. He's tied for 20th with 4 other players. If our run game was killing it, I guess it wouldn't matter, but Mike Tolbert is the lone TD for the season rushing :/

I get your point and agree with the yardage equaling more sustained drives and switching the field position battle. For me, I can careless if that happens on the ground or in the air, I'm not really big into judging by QB passing yards. A yard is a yard and a 1st down is a 1st down.

 

Your last paragraph is spot on and the one I'm really concerned with right now.

 

Biggest stats for me on Offense is 3 and out % and Offensive TD's per game. Right now, we look like utter crap in both categories.

Edited October 7, 2017 by Real McCoy

[hondo in seattle]

I think Drive Success Rate is a better stat than 3-and-out percentage. It measures the percentages of down series that end in a 1st down or a TD. We are 25th in that stat, obviously there is a lot of room for improvement there. I don't see any sites tracking 3-and-out percentage for 2017, maybe because it's too early.

 

Team offense DVOA is probably the best way of tracking how we compare because it would adjust for those 3-and-outs that happen when we have a lead. In DVOA our offense ranks 23rd overall. 11th in passing, 25th in rushing. Our failures in the run games are more responsible for our poor offensive showing thus far IMO.

 

Another stat from Football Outsiders shows our offense is inconsistent. We rank 22nd in variance, in other words 21 teams are more consistent than us (whether that be consistently bad or consistently good). And our offense has faced the 10th hardest schedule so far.

 

Nice homework - good info.

 

I haven't been especially pleased with the offense thus far except for the obvious (and it's a big exception): it's been good enough to earn us wins in 3 out of 4 games.

 

Rico's only 4 games into his tenure with us and - as you've mentioned - we've faced some good defenses. I'm willing to give both Dennison and Tyrod some time to see where they can take us before I scream out "Success!" or "Failure!"

Edited October 7, 2017 by hondo in seattle

[Real McClappy]

I think Drive Success Rate is a better stat than 3-and-out percentage. It measures the percentages of down series that end in a 1st down or a TD. We are 25th in that stat, obviously there is a lot of room for improvement there. I don't see any sites tracking 3-and-out percentage for 2017, maybe because it's too early.

 

Team offense DVOA is probably the best way of tracking how we compare because it would adjust for those 3-and-outs that happen when we have a lead. In DVOA our offense ranks 23rd overall. 11th in passing, 25th in rushing. Our failures in the run games are more responsible for our poor offensive showing thus far IMO.

 

Another stat from Football Outsiders shows our offense is inconsistent. We rank 22nd in variance, in other words 21 teams are more consistent than us (whether that be consistently bad or consistently good). And our offense has faced the 10th hardest schedule so far.

Bills are ranked 30th in 3 and outs, which is a wicked important O stat. Only Tenn and Indy are worse but they have 16%+ more drives starts than we do already on the season.

Punt per drive is also another very important stat in which we are ranked 31st in the League in front of Miami.

 

Biggest ? is this Tyrod's or Dennison's fault? I get we played 2 strong defenses but there is a lot of concern.

 

3 and out % and every stat on offense is in the link below showing were we rank after 4 games.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff2017

 

 

Edited October 7, 2017 by Real McCoy

[mannc]

 

Bills are ranked 30th in 3 and outs, which is a wicked important O stat. Only Tenn and Indy are worse but they have 15%+ more drives than we do already on the season.

Punt per drive is also another very important stat in which we are ranked 31st in the League in front of Miami.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff2017

 

 

 

 

Do these stats include the 3 quarters of football in which the Bills were trying to run off clock rather than score points? And no, three and outs are not a "wicked important stat".

[HappyDays]

Bills are ranked 30th in 3 and outs, which is a wicked important O stat. Only Tenn and Indy are worse but they have 15%+ more drives than we do already on the season.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff2017

Important according to who? It doesn't correlate with wins at all, in fact it is weakly negatively correlated:

 

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/9/5/16243598/third-down-efficiency-three-and-outs-and-other-stats-i-hate-win-correlation-predictive

 

3rd down efficiency however is correlated with wins.

 

http://www.footballperspective.com/is-espns-qbr-the-best-measure-of-quarterback-play/

 

ESPN QBR surprisingly is the passing statistic that correlates with wins the most. ANY/A and passer rating are close behind. Passing yards is at the bottom.

 

I'm sorry but the stats show you are wrong. 3 and out percentage is meaningless in determining an offense's success.