Stop with "Schedule is Hard"--Analytics says it BS

[Thurman#1]

I think we will beat Denver. It is one of our most winnable games IMO.

 

 

We'll see. I think you're being very optimistic indeed. They were 9-7 and they didn't get worse.

 

I do like that we get them at home, that's a big advantage against Denver.

Edited July 6, 2017 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

 

We'll see. I think you're being very optimistic indeed. They were 9-7 and they got better.

I think they got worse and have two hopeless Quarterbacks. 6-10 season coming up. It isn't about being optimistic for the Bills... I just see an ageing Denver team with much worse coaching and no answer at the Quarterback position.

 

EDIT: I will go further... they will finish bottom of the AFC West and could well end up picking top 5 in the 2018 Draft. In fact I think that is going to be my bold prediction.

Edited July 6, 2017 by GunnerBill

[Chandler#81]

Denver isn't what they have been, I don't think. QB situation is not good. Very beatable playing in Buffalo.

 

I agree. Their OL is among the worst and they don't know who'll be at QB. Game in Buffalo? Take the Bills.

 

We go through this every year. We didn't think we'd beat the rams, Cardinals or Pats* prior to the KO of last season. We did, but got swept by NYJ & MIA. No one thought that would happen either.

[GunnerBill]

 

I agree. Their OL is among the worst and they don't know who'll be at QB. Game in Buffalo? Take the Bills.

 

We go through this every year. We didn't think we'd beat the rams, Cardinals or Pats* prior to the KO of last season. We did, but got swept by NYJ & MIA. No one thought that would happen either.

Not to be smug but I did think we would beat the Cardinals and the Rams. I had the Cardinals taking a big step back similar the way I have Denver doing this year. I didn't have the Jets or the Dolphins sweeping us though that is true. I like to think I am pretty good at spotting a team whose window has closed and is about to have a down year or two though and Denver is every inch that team this year.

[JM2009]

 

 

Automatic loss, no. Quite likely loss to Denver, yeah, I think so and so do most.

 

Siemian was average, I'd agree, but in his second year in the league. He's likely to be improved and so is Lynch.

 

I agree that Wade was a loss, but IMHO not a huge one. They have the personnel on defense to yet again be very very good. And they promoted from within which means a scheme change will not be necessary.

Denver is picked to be 8-8 and miss the playoffs.

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

 

Automatic loss, no. Quite likely loss to Denver, yeah, I think so and so do most.

 

Siemian was average, I'd agree, but in his second year in the league. He's likely to be improved and so is Lynch.

 

I agree that Wade was a loss, but IMHO not a huge one. They have the personnel on defense to yet again be very very good. And they promoted from within which means a scheme change will not be necessary.

Vegas has the line at Bills -1.5, so they seem to think that most people believe the Bills will win, barely. You should probably let them know that they're wrong and most people believe the Broncos will win so they don't lose too much money.

[mjt328]

Even with the posted article, some people just don't get it.

 

The difference between a "good" team in the NFL and a "bad" team is not very high.

So many things can change during the season, especially injuries.

 

Just an example. Last year, Arizona was supposed to be one of the toughest teams on our schedule. They ended up with a losing record.

[Royale with Cheese]

 

 

We'll see. I think you're being very optimistic indeed. They were 9-7 and they didn't get worse.

 

I do like that we get them at home, that's a big advantage against Denver.

Losing Wade Phillips will hurt tremendously IMO.

[Big Turk]

IMO, what this shows is simply that we suck at predicting strength of schedule, not that strength of schedule variations do not exist.

 

There is nothing that is "predicting" here. It simply shows that teams records from one year to the next fluctuate a lot more than most people think, and past performance is never a guarantee of future success.(Kind of like the stock market disclaimers)

Losing Wade Phillips will hurt tremendously IMO.

And Kubiak, IMO

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

Then how come I usually know where all the wins are and all the loses are and end up usually within a game of picking the correct record just based on looking at the schedule in August?

[Big Turk]

Then how come I usually know where all the wins are and all the loses are and end up usually within a game of picking the correct record just based on looking at the schedule in August?

It's called "faulty memory"

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

You thought they'd lose to the Jets twice last season? Miami twice? Beat AZ? Beat Cincy?

 

Picking the correct record doesn't count. They are consistently 6-10 to 8-8 every year. Not very hard.

Edited July 6, 2017 by RalphWilson'sNewWar

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

Then how come I usually know where all the wins are and all the loses are and end up usually within a game of picking the correct record just based on looking at the schedule in August?

 

 

because they got lucky. not hard to predict against a team that hasn't been a contender in years.

 

 

nothing but luck, no skill and anyone on this board can drop a number in the hat and be right, or wrong, no real science here.

[Gugny]

 

 

because they got lucky. not hard to predict against a team that hasn't been a contender in years.

 

 

nothing but luck, no skill and anyone on this board can drop a number in the hat and be right, or wrong, no real science here.

 

So you're saying that the Bills' chances of winning the Super Bowl next year are equal to the Pats*' chances, because it's "all luck,"

[Buffalo Boy]

 

So you're saying that the Bills' chances of winning the Super Bowl next year are equal to the Pats*' chances, because it's "all luck,"

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

So you're saying that the Bills' chances of winning the Super Bowl next year are equal to the Pats*' chances, because it's "all luck,"

 

 

did I say that? I made it pretty clear that based off the past it would be easy to predict the bills as losers. I did not say anything in regards to the cheaters but, anyone could predict them to go based on their past.

 

now, since this isn't the past but the present and this is not a rex ryan run team, I think they'll surprise even those who have got lucky with predicting them as a 5-11, 6-10 or 8-8.

 

but hey, I cleaned my lenses and added an extra 1/2 cup of sugar so maybe I'll be just as lucky predicting 10-6 and a wild card.

 

 

as for the pats, I don't give a !@#$ where they finish, I was referring to my team.

[Gugny]

 

 

did I say that? I made it pretty clear that based off the past it would be easy to predict the bills as losers. I did not say anything in regards to the cheaters but, anyone could predict them to go based on their past.

 

now, since this isn't the past but the present and this is not a rex ryan run team, I think they'll surprise even those who have got lucky with predicting them as a 5-11, 6-10 or 8-8.

 

but hey, I cleaned my lenses and added an extra 1/2 cup of sugar so maybe I'll be just as lucky predicting 10-6 and a wild card.

 

 

as for the pats, I don't give a !@#$ where they finish, I was referring to my team.

 

My, you seem salty.

 

Your team? Is this Terry or Kim?

[Buffalo Boy]

" TT Sucks". " The D let us down." Maybe they are both equally to blame.

Maybe, while not Jets bad, we have just been a bad to mediocre team and That is why it is so easy to predict their suckiness.

Some of us remember when The D, or O , or ST used to win games for us while another part of the squad was having an off day. That was back when we had a good team.......a Long time ago.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

My, you seem salty.

 

Your team? Is this Terry or Kim?

 

you just seem to like to dig on some folks, try to get a rise out of them, I know your schtick.

 

 

carry on, and save the prayers for yourself.

[Gugny]

 

you just seem to like to dig on some folks, try to get a rise out of them, I know your schtick.

 

 

carry on, and save the prayers for yourself.

 

"nothing but luck, no skill and anyone on this board can drop a number in the hat and be right, or wrong, no real science here."

 

That's what you said.

 

I challenged you (politely, I'll add).

 

This is what we call a conversation.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

"nothing but luck, no skill and anyone on this board can drop a number in the hat and be right, or wrong, no real science here."

 

That's what you said.

 

I challenged you (politely, I'll add).

 

This is what we call a conversation.

 

 

playing the innocent game. conversation is one thing, snide remarks are another.

 

 

 

Your team? Is this Terry or Kim?

 

 

like I said, carry on. my conversation is over in this thread...

[Gugny]

 

 

playing the innocent game. conversation is one thing, snide remarks are another.

 

 

 

like I said, carry on. my conversation is over in this thread...

 

Well I certainly didn't mean to upset you, Da.

 

I hope someday we can get past this and become friends.

[Thurman#1]

I think they got worse and have two hopeless Quarterbacks. 6-10 season coming up. It isn't about being optimistic for the Bills... I just see an ageing Denver team with much worse coaching and no answer at the Quarterback position.

 

EDIT: I will go further... they will finish bottom of the AFC West and could well end up picking top 5 in the 2018 Draft. In fact I think that is going to be my bold prediction.

 

 

Saying pretty much any QB in his second year is hopeless doesn't really make sense. Lynch and Siemian both have a reasonable chance to be good. Having two young guys with some promise is a very very good thing for them.

 

It certainly is a bold prediction. I'd urge you not to bet the rent on it. Or even a bologna sandwich. They still have that defense.

Denver is picked to be 8-8 and miss the playoffs.

 

 

8.5 is the over for them. And 6 for the Bills.

 

Just saying.

Not to be smug but I did think we would beat the Cardinals and the Rams. I had the Cardinals taking a big step back similar the way I have Denver doing this year. I didn't have the Jets or the Dolphins sweeping us though that is true. I like to think I am pretty good at spotting a team whose window has closed and is about to have a down year or two though and Denver is every inch that team this year.

 

Losing Wade Phillips will hurt tremendously IMO.

 

 

Respectfully disagree. They're promoting from within and probably will be using most of Phillips' system, and the new guy was supposed to be a serious up-and-comer. If they were switching schemes, I'd agree. It doesn't look like they are.

Edited July 6, 2017 by Thurman#1

[JM2009]

I'll take the under all day on 8.5 for Denver.

me too.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

 

 

Saying pretty much any QB in his second year is hopeless doesn't really make sense. Lynch and Siemian both have a reasonable chance to be good. Having two young guys with some promise is a very very good thing for them.

 

It certainly is a bold prediction. I'd urge you not to bet the rent on it. Or even a bologna sandwich. They still have that defense.

 

 

8.5 is the over for them. And 6 for the Bills.

 

Just saying.

 

 

 

Respectfully disagree. They're promoting from within and probably will be using most of Phillips' system, and the new guy was supposed to be a serious up-and-comer. If they were switching schemes, I'd agree. It doesn't look like they are.

 

1-6 when they scored fewer than 20 points per game. Also 1-6 when they had 1 or fewer takeaways on defense.

 

Great defense - but they're without Ware so Ray is a full-time starter and they lose depth. They were remarkably healthy a year ago, i think only CJ Andersons injury having a large effect on them.

 

They play KC, SD, and OAK twice. None of them are cupcakes. They play the NFC and AFC easts. Outside of the Jets, all those teams can compete with a team like Denver. Then they play CIN and IND in their other games. Also not cupcakes.

 

If they remain healthy, and QBs develop, they are probably a playoff team with a top 5 defense. If the defense suffers a few injuries, and they struggle to stop the run as they did a year ago, they are under 8 wins.

Edited July 6, 2017 by dneveu

[Very wide right]

THIS....... I see a Superbowl appearance for the Bills this year. I dont see anybody stopping them.

[Royale with Cheese]

Respectfully disagree. They're promoting from within and probably will be using most of Phillips' system, and the new guy was supposed to be a serious up-and-comer. If they were switching schemes, I'd agree. It doesn't look like they are.

 

I see your point but I just see Phillips as a great game day/play caller. He might be able to use most of Phillips system but the execution of the play calls...I think Phillips and LeBeau as the two best that I've seen.

But this new guy could be just as good....we will see.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

 

I see your point but I just see Phillips as a great game day/play caller. He might be able to use most of Phillips system but the execution of the play calls...I think Phillips and LeBeau as the two best that I've seen.

But this new guy could be just as good....we will see.

 

Belichick's gotta be in there. I know he doesn't call them anymore, but he did win 2 with Parcells as the game-day caller.

 

But hes had a top-10 defense like... the majority of his time in NE.

[Royale with Cheese]

 

Belichick's gotta be in there. I know he doesn't call them anymore, but he did win 2 with Parcells as the game-day caller.

 

But hes had a top-10 defense like... the majority of his time in NE.

 

Belicheck for sure but I see him more as a HC than a DC.

[Ramza86]

Youre right OP....The Browns and the Pats...its the same level of difficulty for us.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Youre right OP....The Browns and the Pats...its the same level of difficulty for us.

 

 

I think the idea is... you can't use a teams previous season's success as a measurement for the difficulty of your schedule this year. There are obvious exceptions (NE is the big one, CLE on the other end of the spectrum). Tons of roster turnover, injuries, and good/bad luck can drastically alter a teams success.

[Ramza86]

 

I think the idea is... you can't use a teams previous season's success as a measurement for the difficulty of your schedule this year. There are obvious exceptions (NE is the big one, CLE on the other end of the spectrum). Tons of roster turnover, injuries, and good/bad luck can drastically alter a teams success.

 

I get that...but how much worse does a good team get barring injury? Not to mention...what if the good team...plays better.

 

If a team stays the same from last year...same coach...most of the same players...same system...you dont wont see a much of a drop off...unless they are playing tougher teams.....whats a few more losses in terms of a teams talent if they lost a few tight games when they come into Buffalo.

[transplantbillsfan]

Considering the general parity in the NFL, this seems pretty obvious.

 

Every year you have teams that go from being pretty good to mediocrity (Jets, Bengals) or go from mediocrity to being pretty good (Atlanta) or go from sucking to being pretty good (Titans) or go from mediocrity to being great (Oakland) or go from great to sucking (Carolina) or go from sucking to being great (Dallas).

 

And all that was just last year.

 

 

The most consistent teams in the NFL have probably been the Browns for sucking, the Bills for mediocrity, and the Pats for greatness.

 

 

It doesn't help that we play in the same division as the Pats. But, in the end, looking at our schedule and circling games like Atlanta and Carolina as losses seems like grasping at straws. I actually think Atlanta's going to feel the loss of Shanahan and take a step back from what they were last year. And Carolina... well, they sucked last year. Circling that as a loss seems like purely a guess.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Youre right OP....The Browns and the Pats...its the same level of difficulty for us.

 

...any particular reason why you left the Jets out?.......the offensive juggernaut that SWEPT us last year?...................

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

 

I get that...but how much worse does a good team get barring injury? Not to mention...what if the good team...plays better.

 

If a team stays the same from last year...same coach...most of the same players...same system...you dont wont see a much of a drop off...unless they are playing tougher teams.....whats a few more losses in terms of a teams talent if they lost a few tight games when they come into Buffalo.

 

Atlanta scored 339 points in 2015, and 560 in 2016. Which team are they?

Carolina scored 500 points in 2015, and 369 in 2016. Which team are they?

 

Cincy... 12-4 in 2015, 6-9-1 in 2016.

Jets 10-6 in 2015, 5-11 in 2016.

 

Is all of this because they "played a harder schedule"?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

Atlanta scored 339 points in 2015, and 560 in 2016. Which team are they?

Carolina scored 500 points in 2015, and 369 in 2016. Which team are they?

 

Cincy... 12-4 in 2015, 6-9-1 in 2016.

Jets 10-6 in 2015, 5-11 in 2016.

 

Is all of this because they "played a harder schedule"?

 

....FAR too many unpredictable variables occurring during the season.......and then there's this MAJOR curveball: Brady goes down, Cassel leads Pats to 11-5 in 2008 and they MISS the playoffs.....you never know..

Edited July 6, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

 

....FAR too many unpredictable variables occurring during the season.......and then there's this MAJOR curveball: Brady goes down, Cassel leads Pats to 11-5 in 2008 and they MISS the playoffs.....you never know..

 

Turnovers tend to fluctuate from year to year. % of fumbles recovered tends to fluctuate. Some years every pass that gets deflected lands in jairus byrds hands, and other years they all end up on the turf.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

Turnovers tend to fluctuate from year to year. % of fumbles recovered tends to fluctuate. Some years every pass that gets deflected lands in jairus byrds hands, and other years they all end up on the turf.

...look more at injuries, releases, abrupt cuts due to legal, coaches who get fired and their replacements have other favorites, underperforming benchings within an unknown replacement, etc....and I know I missed some.............

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

...look more at injuries, releases, abrupt cuts due to legal, coaches who get fired and their replacements have other favorites, underperforming benchings within an unknown replacement, etc....and I know I missed some.............

 

Either way - anything can happen. there are only a couple guarantees ... a Tom brady led patriots team will win 12-16 games this year. And the browns will stink.

[GunnerBill]

me too.

Me three. Wouldn't even think twice.

 

 

Saying pretty much any QB in his second year is hopeless doesn't really make sense. Lynch and Siemian both have a reasonable chance to be good. Having two young guys with some promise is a very very good thing for them.

Well I never felt like Lynch had much of a chance coming out. He was my "not with a barge pole" player of the 2016 draft. Siemian is a perfect stylistic fit for Kubiak and Dennison - a poor man's Matt Schaub. Let's see how he transitions into Mike McCoy's offense - I suspect not well. And the defense keeps getting older and keeps losing peices and they lost Wade.