Nate Peterman - weak arm? I don't think so!

[Thurman#1]

It is pretty low. If you pull out guys picked in the top 3 it is like 50% (depending on where you draw the line). I did it a few months back. Without sounding cliche it's hard to find a good QB.

 

 

 

This, and very much so. It's hard to find a good guy anywhere.

[Thurman#1]

Without peeing in anyone's Cheerios I am just suggesting we are careful how to define "diamond in the rough." Attached are the guys drafted to play QB and if you focus on the 5h round and later you aren't going to see a lot of "solid starters." You won't recognize most of the names (who the hell is Andy Hall). http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position Ironically, Tyrod Taylor is absolutely one of the best of the last 15+ years. Anyways, its fun to go back and look.

 

 

While you're certainly right that the odds are high to find a guy that late, anytime you add the phrase "and later" and then look at all that big "there and later" group, you're adjusting the odds to make it look even less likely.

 

I mean, if you say, "Look at guys who were drafted in the first round or later ... the odds are terrible." Well, yeah, but the addition of "and later" does a lot to make the stats look impossible.

 

Here's another way to look at this that doesn't put the guy with a huge group of guys most of whom do indeed look less likely than him to have major success. In the last 20 - 25 years or so, how many franchise QBs or guys who are still possible franchise QBs, or guys who came close were not drafted in the top three or four rounds?

 

From Brady to Siemian (as I say, I'm counting guys who still have a legit chance to get there), throwing in Tyrod, Foles, Cousins, Romo, Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger, Mark Rypien, Warren Moon, Jake Delhomme, Brad Johnson, Kurt Warner, Dave Krieg, Trent Green, Steve Beuerlein, Rich Gannon, Grbac, Flutie, Bobby Hebert ... Fitz looked like he might be one of those guys for a while, though I somehow never bought in to him.

 

Oh, and Dak Prescott.

 

It's not that rare for somebody who has a real shot to turn out not to have been drafted high, and a decent amount have had real success.

 

Looked at as a percentage, sure, it's a really low-percentage deal, but how many of those guys who weren't higher picks and didn't make it have had anything like the reviews Peterman has had in terms of the Gruden quote and so on. He's not an average low pick.

 

Does that mean I give him a high chance to make it? Nah, but it's not infinitesimal as some here are making it seem either. Some guys do it. Maybe he won't be one but maybe he will.

Edited June 15, 2017 by Thurman#1

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

someone said he Petered out.

you kill me

 

I just read that CJ is a lock for #4 in QB depth. If you believe the Buffalo News.

Peterman drop back, trows over the middle, it bounces off of the goal post and into Shadys arms for a TD!!!!

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

While you're certainly right that the odds are high to find a guy that late, anytime you add the phrase "and later" and then look at all that big "there and later" group, you're adjusting the odds to make it look even less likely.

 

I mean, if you say, "Look at guys who were drafted in the first round or later ... the odds are terrible." Well, yeah, but the addition of "and later" does a lot to make the stats look impossible.

 

Here's another way to look at this that doesn't put the guy with a huge group of guys most of whom do indeed look less likely than him to have major success. In the last 20 - 25 years or so, how many franchise QBs or guys who are still possible franchise QBs, or guys who came close were not drafted in the top three or four rounds?

 

From Brady to Siemian (as I say, I'm counting guys who still have a legit chance to get there), throwing in Tyrod, Foles, Cousins, Romo, Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger, Mark Rypien, Warren Moon, Jake Delhomme, Brad Johnson, Kurt Warner, Dave Krieg, Trent Green, Steve Beuerlein, Rich Gannon, Grbac, Flutie, Bobby Hebert ... Fitz looked like he might be one of those guys for a while, though I somehow never bought in to him.

 

Oh, and Dak Prescott.

 

It's not that rare for somebody who has a real shot to turn out not to have been drafted high, and a decent amount have had real success.

 

Looked at as a percentage, sure, it's a really low-percentage deal, but how many of those guys who weren't higher picks and didn't make it have had anything like the reviews Peterman has had in terms of the Gruden quote and so on. He's not an average low pick.

 

Does that mean I give him a high chance to make it? Nah, but it's not infinitesimal as some here are making it seem either. Some guys do it. Maybe he won't be one but maybe he will.

You are including 3rd and 4th rounders in there. I basically took Peterman, a 5th rounder, and said look back as far as you want at guys picked in the 5th or later. That's not stacking the odds, its fact; he is a 5th rounder.

 

As far as I'm concerned there is no need to go back further than about 2000. Those guys aren't in the league and scouting has changed so much since then. The game has as well.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position If you look at the list you will find a few solid backups (McCarron, Yates, Gradkowski, Thigpen, Anderson, Orlovsky, Cassel, Nall and Feely), a couple serviceable starters (Siemian, Tyrod, Fitz), and about 82 bums (depending on where you draw the line). So using the numbers there are about 94 QBs drafted between 2001-2016 in the 5th round or later (assuming I counted right) 3 have had good years as starters. That doesn't count undrafted guys and there may be some in there. Maybe 10% would fall in the quality backup role and 86% are stiffs. Maybe Peterman will fall into that 4% but even still that puts him on par with Tyrod. Maybe he falls in the 10% where he has a successful career. The numbers say though that about 8.5/10 guys drafted in the 5th or later never make it. We need to temper our expectations. Everyone always, says "well Brady was a 6th round pick" and he is an extreme exception, not the rule. It is possible but unlikely.

[TheFunPolice]

you kill me

 

I just read that CJ is a lock for #4 in QB depth. If you believe the Buffalo News.

Peterman drop back, trows over the middle, it bounces off of the goal post and into Shadys arms for a TD!!!!

 

The crowd goes wild! People chanting! Bills win!

 

BUT WAIT!

 

The referee's voice can barely be heard above the roar of the crowd: "the ball hit the goal post and is immediately considered out of bounds, therefore it is an incomplete pass!"

[Luxy312]

We the fans fawn all over guys like Peterman every year. We point to the undrafted players that miraculously found success. If we just stick to the draft for a moment, there have been 113 quarterbacks drafted in the 5th round or later in the last 20 years. We all know (and most of us hate) Tom Brady. No doubt a HOF'er and certainly a franchise guy. After that, the pickings are pretty slim. Hasselback was decent, but nothing special. Marc Bulger? When the next guys on your list are journeyman like Cassell and Fitzpatrick, the odds are pretty much stacked against you. While the OP's initial video is a nice fluff piece, that's pretty much all it is. Peterman wasn't throwing on a rope into tight coverage, as much as he was hucking up balloon balls for his receivers to get under to catch. I'm not saying that he'll be terrible, but will not drink the Kool-Aid this early. At least at this point, I'm hopeful that Taylor will be better.

[T master]

Which would you rather have a big arm to throw 60+ yards (EJ Manuel) or a little less arm strength (Peterman/Chad Pennington) ??

 

I think thats a no brainer

[JohnC]

Which would you rather have a big arm to throw 60+ yards (EJ Manuel) or a little less arm strength (Peterman/Chad Pennington) ??

 

I think thats a no brainer

The issue isn't who is better but who is good enough. Peterman probably will be better than Manuel and still not not good enough to be a starter. That doesn't mean that he wasn't a reasonable pick in the fifth round because if he turns out to be a backup qb then the pick has value. But in the long run his addition doesn't do much to adequately address the starting position.

[C.Biscuit97]

Which would you rather have a big arm to throw 60+ yards (EJ Manuel) or a little less arm strength (Peterman/Chad Pennington) ??

 

I think thats a no brainer

Chad Pennington was a 1st round pick.

[Kirby Jackson]

Which would you rather have a big arm to throw 60+ yards (EJ Manuel) or a little less arm strength (Peterman/Chad Pennington) ??

 

I think thats a no brainer

Jamarcus Russell had a big arm and sucked. Jeff Tuel had no arm and sucked. Aaron Rodgers has a huge arm and is great. Joe Montana didn't have a strong arm and was great. It's not that simple. It depends on the player.

[LeGOATski]

there's more than a strong correlation between velocity and distance, they're exactly the same thing. Both based on the amount of energy transferred to the ball at the time of release.

 

Speed of release and having a fast throwing motion means so much in the nfl, Peterman is adequate in that regard and seems like he's confident and smart enough to have a shot as a starter, but the odds of 5th round qb's going anywhere are miniscule for sure.

 

He will beat out Cardale for the 3rd spot. Which means my Cardale For Tight End campaign will be in full swing for training camp.

I get what your saying about distance being a product of velocity, but that's not the argument here.

 

The argument that is tossed around is that since he threw it 60 yards, then he has a strong arm. That's not true and velocity is the variable. All 60 yard throws are not equal.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

The crowd goes wild! People chanting! Bills win!

 

BUT WAIT!

 

The referee's voice can barely be heard above the roar of the crowd: "the ball hit the goal post and is immediately considered out of bounds, therefore it is an incomplete pass!"

Now I'm wondering if the Ref's would call it a TD!

 

Thanks for ruining my fun

Duh FunPolice

[Figster]

You are including 3rd and 4th rounders in there. I basically took Peterman, a 5th rounder, and said look back as far as you want at guys picked in the 5th or later. That's not stacking the odds, its fact; he is a 5th rounder.

 

As far as I'm concerned there is no need to go back further than about 2000. Those guys aren't in the league and scouting has changed so much since then. The game has as well.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position If you look at the list you will find a few solid backups (McCarron, Yates, Gradkowski, Thigpen, Anderson, Orlovsky, Cassel, Nall and Feely), a couple serviceable starters (Siemian, Tyrod, Fitz), and about 82 bums (depending on where you draw the line). So using the numbers there are about 94 QBs drafted between 2001-2016 in the 5th round or later (assuming I counted right) 3 have had good years as starters. That doesn't count undrafted guys and there may be some in there. Maybe 10% would fall in the quality backup role and 86% are stiffs. Maybe Peterman will fall into that 4% but even still that puts him on par with Tyrod. Maybe he falls in the 10% where he has a successful career. The numbers say though that about 8.5/10 guys drafted in the 5th or later never make it. We need to temper our expectations. Everyone always, says "well Brady was a 6th round pick" and he is an extreme exception, not the rule. It is possible but unlikely.

Unlikely by way of odds perhaps , but when you look at Petermans skill set the only part of his game that is in question is arm strength.(IMO)

 

Velocity can be improved , having good touch on the football is more important then throwing laser shots that are lower and easier to pick off IMO. Petermans pin point accuracy and excellent field vision is what sets him apart from other QB's in his class in my humble opinion.

 

Sure, we can say the odds are low from a numbers standpoint of a 5th round QB making a big splash in the NFL , but I suggest taking a real good look at what the player brings to the table before counting him out from becoming a succesful starting QB in the NFL.

 

The Clemson game was no fluke, this kid can play...

Edited June 15, 2017 by Figster

[Blokestradamus]

OH, I THINK SO!!!!

 

@SalSport

Nathan Peterman threw an out pattern from far hashmarks. Got there too late (not enough velocity) and Joe Powell dropped INT off fingers

[Kirby Jackson]

Unlikely by way of odds perhaps , but when you look at Petermans skill set the only part of his game that is in question is arm strength.(IMO)

 

Velocity can be improved IMO. Having good touch on the football is more important then throwing laser shots that are lower and easier to pick off. Petermans pin point accuracy and excellent field vision is what sets him apart from other QB's in his class in my humble opinion.

 

Sure, we can say the odds are low from a numbers standpoint of a 5th round QB making a big splash in the NFL , but I suggest taking a real good look at what the player brings to the table before counting him out from becoming a succesful starting QB in the NFL.

 

The Clemson game was no fluke, this kid can play...

They say that about all later picks. Everyone can always justify the reason that ____ is different. Logan Thomas had the skill set, Skelton had the arm, McCarron had the intangibles, Brennan had the numbers but they all end up sucking. We try to justify "our guy as different" but as of now it's not likely. There's a reason that he went in the 5th and it's not because scouts expect him to be a good pro QB. 7 guys were taken ahead of him including CJ Beatherd. If Peterman turns out good we should be thrilled. The numbers say though, good would be a career like McCarron and great would be a career like Tyrod. That's the reality of late round QBs. The sample size is large enough.

[Wayne Arnold]

[YoloinOhio]

I haven't read anything in this thread but it sounds like he has a weak arm in minicamp

[Wayne Arnold]

Jeff Tuel Jr.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

OH, I THINK SO!!!!

 

@SalSport

Nathan Peterman threw an out pattern from far hashmarks. Got there too late (not enough velocity) and Joe Powell dropped INT off fingers

 

 

@SalSports

Sal Capaccio

And this is what I've seen a lot of from Peterman this week. Fine on lots of throws. But often not enough mustard on those throws.

[Blokestradamus]

I haven't read anything in this thread but it sounds like he has a weak arm in minicamp

 

@SalSports

And this is what I've seen a lot of from Peterman this week. Fine on lots of throws. But often not enough mustard on those throws.