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Wayne Arnold

Just when I think the Bills finally got smart...

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they get all Billsy on Day 2.

 

I was so proud and excited that the Bills traded down from 10 to add more draft picks - including a first-rounder in 2018. The smart teams know that the NFL Draft is a crapshoot of massive proportion - and the only solution is to accumulate as many picks as possible to increase odds that the players you draft are good. Then let them battle it out in training camp.

 

But no. They trade up and give up picks NOT ONCE...BUT TWICE.

 

No one wastes draft picks like the Buffalo Bills.

 

They simply cannot help themselves. They get tunnel vision on one player and are so damn paranoid that others value their guy like they do (ego) that they shoot themselves in the foot by giving away valuable picks. It's absurd how perennially dumb our organization is.

 

It's as if each person who is hired by the Bills gets a lobotomy on their first day as employees. It's the most realistic explanation I can come up with.

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Several other threads you could have put this in

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I'm right there with you Wayne. The draft is a crapshoot but every year the Bills waltz in like they know better than everyone else. What is the success rate of OL taken in the 3rd round, 33%? I can't imagine it's much higher. But I'm sure the Bills would tell you they are 75% sure in Dawkins. No matter how sure they think they are they don't really know. Dawkins could tear his ACL in training camp and there goes that idea. We needed to use all our picks this year IMO. I love the trade down but not as much because we lost the 3rd rounder anyways, to take a WR who had a great senior bowl but whose college production was possibly inflated by the system he played in. I mean I don't know maybe he turns into a great player but without the benefit of hindsight yet the moves look poor to me.

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Several other threads you could have put this in

....merge them all into a "NEGATIVE NELLIES UNITE" thread for group therapy and commiseration.....gonna be a long weekend......................

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Several other threads you could have put this in

 

But my opinion is more important.

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....merge them all into a "NEGATIVE NELLIES UNITE" thread for group therapy and commiseration.....gonna be a long weekend......................

I'm not a negative nelly, I just wish the Bills were smarter with their picks. The less you have the less room there is for error. If McDermott really is running this draft that is especially concerning to me. He's a coach, not a scout. He has no background in college talent evaluation. So why should we believe he knows better than everyone else in the room, that this player is worth 2 picks while other teams haven't spent 1 pick on him yet? I like the players picked, no crazy reaches and they fill needs, but the truth is no one knows how they will fare in the NFL.

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But my opinion is more important.

should have gotten in to coaching. Then I might care what you say.

I'm not a negative nelly, I just wish the Bills were smarter with their picks. The less you have the less room there is for error. If McDermott really is running this draft that is especially concerning to me. He's a coach, not a scout. He has no background in college talent evaluation. So why should we believe he knows better than everyone else in the room, that this player is worth 2 picks while other teams haven't spent 1 pick on him yet? I like the players picked, no crazy reaches and they fill needs, but the truth is no one knows how they will fare in the NFL.

you should have gotten into coaching also

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The way I see it, the Bills have just as many picks in this year"s draft right now as they did coming in, they got three players who should immediately contribute, and they have an extra 1st rounder next year. What are you bitching about?

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The way I see it, the Bills have just as many picks in this year"s draft right now as they did coming in, they got three players who should immediately contribute, and they have an extra 1st rounder next year. What are you bitching about?

 

Not only contribute immediately, but fill holes we've had for two years now. Also, save 12 mil in changing out CB's and got an extra 1st next year.

 

But yeah, terrible job

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Just posted this in another thread.

 

Once you are past the third round the likelihood of finding a guy that can come in and compete for a starting role are pretty remote. Do you really think that guys picked in late rounds are significantly better than undrafted free agents? Most of these guys come in and compete for a roster spot and at best become special teamers.

 

The Bills may very well have picked up three starters, using those late picks to achieve that is smart. I think they have done a good job of working this draft. They may very well have filled three holes. What more do you want?

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....merge them all into a "NEGATIVE NELLIES UNITE" thread for group therapy and commiseration.....gonna be a long weekend......................

 

Just because we don't like it doesn't make their thoughts any less valid. I am leery of quashing dissenting opinion just because the majority disagrees with it. If it turns toward a bothersome crusade then we'll address it; until then I think folks should have the freedom to vent on a weekend in which many are very emotionally involved.

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I have zero problem giving away 5ths to move into 2nd, but they need to be smart about who they are drafting there.

 

You should read this article: http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Contrary to what people think, you are not going to get 7 starters from a draft. You are hopefully going to end up with 3. I would rather stock my odds with higher % of success than have more picks with low success rates. Give me a pick with 70% success rate than a lot of 15% success rate picks.

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Just posted this in another thread.

 

Once you are past the third round the likelihood of finding a guy that can come in and compete for a starting role are pretty remote. Do you really think that guys picked in late rounds are significantly better than undrafted free agents? Most of these guys come in and compete for a roster spot and at best become special teamers.

 

The Bills may very well have picked up three starters, using those late picks to achieve that is smart. I think they have done a good job of working this draft. They may very well have filled three holes. What more do you want?

They want to find more reasons to complain.

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The way I see it, the Bills have just as many picks in this year"s draft right now as they did coming in

Not entirely true, we lost the 3rd rounder that we had from the KC trade. That's an entire mid-round player gone. Jones and Dawkins can't just become decent starters for the trades to be worth it because you can find decent starters at our original spots in the 2nd and 3rd round. We were just so sure about Jones and Dawkins that we gave up the chance to take an additional mid-round player that could have filled yet another hole. I for one think QB still needs to be addressed but I don't know how likely that is now.

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Just posted this in another thread.

 

Once you are past the third round the likelihood of finding a guy that can come in and compete for a starting role are pretty remote. Do you really think that guys picked in late rounds are significantly better than undrafted free agents? Most of these guys come in and compete for a roster spot and at best become special teamers.

 

The Bills may very well have picked up three starters, using those late picks to achieve that is smart. I think they have done a good job of working this draft. They may very well have filled three holes. What more do you want?

 

....don't forget to throw in another 1st in 2018 for good measure.....Bflo has found late round production over time.....Andre (4th), Kyle (5th), House Ballard (11th), FredEx (UDFA),etc..........

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The way I see it, the Bills have just as many picks in this year"s draft right now as they did coming in, they got three players who should immediately contribute, and they have an extra 1st rounder next year. What are you bitching about?

On top of that, how can they judge the quality of a pick that hasn't played a down yet? Could be 3 pro bowlers or all busts, but either way, I will still never understand how people are so sure of the value of a draft pick when nobody can possibly know at this point.

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Just because we don't like it doesn't make their thoughts any less valid. I am leery of quashing dissenting opinion just because the majority disagrees with it. If it turns toward a bothersome crusade then we'll address it; until then I think folks should have the freedom to vent on a weekend in which many are very emotionally involved.

Agree. However, there are professional naysayers on this board; everything is wrong; nothing is good; unless what they want to happen happens and even then there might be a jaded take. It is annoying.

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Three picks in the first two rounds and two first rounders next year. Oh the humanity!

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